₦airaland Forum

LordAdam16:
You are excused.

Arsenal should be made to give up their CL slot.
Still ruing their weekend disaster, then somehow capitulate to one of the worst Bayern teams in recent history.

-Lord

Nice one my Lord.

At least we both agree on this

Plenty grammar, arrogance, noise, pontificating but zero substance. This Lord guy dey funny me die .

Walahi he has zero to little knowledge of fundamentals or economics. Just associating and garbling terms together.

My apologies Lord, I know this is a personal attack but I just couldnt help it . Just allow me this moment, I'm still celebrating Arsenal's L

Ive been busy drinking Arsenal tears but now I have time to diffuse the whole thing.

The shift in the reserves has little or nothing to do with defending the naira

The statement above. Please what does it mean ?

I have never seen where a clear as day statement is being ignored to push the word intent. Nawa oo. Why is the focus on what he implies when there's a direct statement?

Because he talked about "intention". Of course, every central bank will prefer a sane market but knowing how speculators play in the Nigerian market. He's telling you they will intervene if they have to but that isnt the preference . Of course, this is within the right and mandate of the CBN

Itsrm:
Lol, here's your bias coming into play.

Watch it again. This was what he said. "The shift in the reserves has little or nothing to do with defending the naira"

How else do you expect him to spell it out ?

Infact, the overall tone is about what he hopes to achieve and not what is currently happening.

Can anyone else translate the bolded?

Or am I reading something else. At the end of the day, we all see what we want to see.

But I'll tell you one thing, thinking the CBN governor will tell actual lies to defend something that is already it's core mandate is next level propaganda.

The guy knows speculators are like hawks watching the market. Any unbiased person knows what he's saying but again I'll leave you to your convictions

Those of us who already understand the market did say that what was driving the reserves was most likely debt servicing which he has confirmed.

All I needed to do was look at the DMO website and do some extrapolation instead of just looking at the reserves data.

Anybody who thinks cos he was vague means he's defending the Naira should watch from the 3:50 minute and explain exactly what was meant

Itsrm:
Lol, he actually just confirmed they are defending the currency and hopes they won't need to in the future.

No he didn't

Please watch it again. Infact from the 3:52 minute, he explicitly said " The shift in the reserves has nothing to do with defending the Naira"

What else do you want him to say again?. Perhaps he talked about intention which signals to me that they aren't at the moment but may have to if it calls for it

But he was very clear that the intention is a liquid, transparent and a willing buyer- seller market determining the price

Unlimited22:
Exactly, like how you haven't reached UCL semi since VAR was introduced.

Bloody Cheats. God Don expose una nyash 😂😂😂😂😂

Kings of Europe 10 years no UCL

Lmao

Lol.

This was a good one

Itsrm:
Thing is, there's nothing else that explains the foreign reserve depleting by 2.1bn in one month. The backlog they paid was 1.5bn. Remember they also claim to have received 1.5bn from FPIs. If 1.5bn from FPIs nets off 1.5bn used to clear backlog, where did 2.1bn go?

Yes, it's their core mandate to use the reserves to defend the currency so the question is why they are hiding it.

My guess, they know the implication of coming out clean which is, people will know the exchange rate is only headed in one direction-downwards.

Again, all speculation from your end.

I remember saying it the other day that you cannot use a net position for comparison. Even at that your numbers are quite wrong. There have been major debt repayments that have occurred this year. Adding and subtracting when you dont have the full picture just to juxtapose a position is just confirmation bias

Why are you so convinced they are hiding what there isnt any evidence of. Market participants are yet to see them intervene but somehow people just seem convinced that they are. And my guess is its still the speculators who are more worried/interested in this piece of info

Its probably the same reason why I think CBN is holding back on providing the information - maybe until there's some sort of stability. I also think they should disclose in the spirit of transparency but if that's their play then they should go for it

Omo its looking like a back to back CL for Pep oo. Struggling to see the team that may stop him

Raumdeuter, what does Tuchel have in store for the boys

User09:
Here you go. Same thing that was trashed out earlier.

BTW, you know what's funny and I think I mentioned it in one of my responses earlier,

Using the external reserves to defend the Naira is one of the major functions of the CBN and it is explicitly stated on their website. All I have said is there's no evidence of this so far.

Sovereign wealth fund is different from reserves which I imagine most people should be more concerned about.

Hi Itsrm,

I made a mental note to come back to provide more clarity on the bolded and you can see it in the link below.

Take a look at number 3 and you'll see why I'm bringing it up. CBN has no reason to deny the obvious given that it is a major part of its core mandate. Until that claim is made and any evidence is provided, then we can make the association.

So far so good, market participants are yet to see them interfere in the fx rate dynamics

https://www.cbn.gov.ng/aboutcbn/

LordAdam16:
That's because he never has data to back up his erroneous statements.
Thus I view him as an irritant.

If he continues to shadow me when I point out the CBN peg rates, he should expect similar or worse treatment.

-Lord

The ignorant fellow pontificates once again. Don't think some of us haven't noticed how you've been cleaning/modifying your comments when corrected

Anyway l could have been of immense value to you seeing how nonsensical your takes have been especially on this subject and believe me you would have learned a lot.

But true to type, you seen it as a personal attack. Well bye and keep on speaking with all the ignorance you have soaked in

Itsrm:
Bloomberg require subscription to read their articles. If you have read it, you can share screenshots here.

Here you go. Same thing that was trashed out earlier.

BTW, you know what's funny and I think I mentioned it in one of my responses earlier,

Using the external reserves to defend the Naira is one of the major functions of the CBN and it is explicitly stated on their website. All I have said is there's no evidence of this so far.

Sovereign wealth fund is different from reserves which I imagine most people should be more concerned about.

Itsrm:


One day, the truth will come out.

Did you read the article?. They are also speculating just like most people plus it's a sensational article.

If you read through, you'll realize it's the FX backlog payments which the CBN has already extensively talked about. Like I said, CBN may need to publish it's reserve payment data to set minds at ease.

monerozi5590:
Start watching from the 7/8 minutes. He was explaining the CBN intervention like defending the Naira. Is CBN intervening in the market? Absolutely yes.

Ok

monerozi5590:
CBN has been intervening in the forex market na. I don't understand this your point by saying there's no evidence of CBN intervening in the market.


Here is Rotus explanation. Nigeria borrowed huge amount of dollars in selling bonds to defend the Naira and this is currently what's happening in the market.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_yH7B7zRyw?si=fXFje58hdelah6Sh

Please stay on course. I cannot see the correlation between what you posted and what is being discussed

LordAdam16:
You keep repeating this fallacy that CBN does not intervene directly in the NAFEM.
Maybe you can't read.

Here it is in black and white:


Culled from punchng.com/cbn-sells-over-300m-to-banks-as-naira-gains

I have provided proof that the reserves are declining following CBN renewed vigor in pegging the rate.

Now provide proof that debt repayment and forward contract payments are responsible for the almost net -$2B in the decline of the reserves in 3 weeks.

-Lord

Look it'll be better to ask questions rather than sink deep in your ignorance.

I have had most of the answers to your questions if you noticed but I've just been baiting you from the onset and you keep sinking while trying to lord off your " ignorance"

Are you even aware there's something called interbank markets??. I should help you with a basic research when I can just look at reserves data and pontificate like you

Olowunl01:
I am enjoying this exchange, please don't be discouraged.

As someone whose understanding of economics is low, what I am getting from your stance is that @LordAdam16 usage of the term pegging is inaccurate as what is happening is market signalling which is norm for central bankers e.g Feds, BoE does when it comes to interest rates.

Now where I am lost is the suggestion that FDI or Foreign Remittance is the key reason for Naira gaining, do you have any chart or figures of last 3months to support this?

I ask this cos @LordAdam16 opinion of CBN defending the Naira seems very plausible, whilst it might not be responsible for the full amount of decline in our foreign reserve, as all it has to do in signal the rate it is able to sell USD, such signal creates sentiment of intention and you really have to have big pockets to bet against these sentiment.

Overall - would seem you guys agree that this is not sustainable? Have you considered the effect of the refineries coming on stream reducing our FX demands? Escalations in the middle east leading to increase in oil prices our biggest FX earner?

I didnt say this. All I said was it forms the bulk of supply/fx inflow and this is backed by actual comments by CBN spokesperson. The Naira gaining is just the market doing what it typically does if you consider the speculative nature of the fx market.

As for the refinery, I suspect its another way to tackle FX demand. Since the government has repeatedly said that importation of refined petroleum product is one of the major FX expense

Itsrm:
They will never be open about it. The BM is not just moving the NAFEM by market signaling, I strongly suspect they are still the largest supplier of FX at the NAFEM window at any rate they want but then, like you said I have no evidence. CBN has said they are floating the currency, they will die on that hill.

It's the same with NNPC. They will never publicly admitting to paying subsidy. And you'll never have any evidence to prove otherwise.

Well, there are actual market participants who can see this thing. Anyway CBN needs to start publishing their reserves payment report, Maybe it'll help with all the skeptics

As for the subsidy, that one is clear as day. Otherwise fuel price would have been moving just as the International one does especially if you consider exchange rate movements

Ibime:
Quote THE LORD guy directly or mention his name LordAdam16

You too dey do fear fear, you get illness or social hangup?

Why write epistle ontop his matter but addressed at us. Do we look like jurors?

Anyway, I am convinced by your argument on volume and your points are solid.

You're the only one I ignore and this is from your history on the Chelsea thread where you have a penchant for being rude and from your unwillingness to adjust your opinions when proven wrong.

I clearly said it in my post that it was addressed both to the lord guy and the likers and sharers and those who may wanna get an understanding

Been too busy to come back to the earlier post and now I'm shocked seeing the amount of likes and shares on it.

This tells me 2 things; Perhaps, people just dont understand or have clarity on what is been debated - and this includes the Lord guy

or People are neck deep in their agenda and just want the false propaganda to be true.

I'll now give clarity and proper explanation for the first set of people and those who possibly want to gain a proper understanding of the market and what's been going on.

The market signaling being spoken of is the sale of USD to the BDC at a perceived lower rate - I say perceived, cos remember that this low rate being chosen was also determined by the market interactions - albeit the lowest one. Now the market has reacted to such signals just like how it would in any free market economy. Think about it, even in any supply shop or market, if theres any sentiment of price drop, Wouldnt other sellers act accordingly?. Its the same reason we had that whole discussion few days back about retailers abusing their powers. This isnt the case here with the Fx market

Now pay attention here; CBN has not intervened in the dominant market - NAFEM and in terms of supply and demand and liquidity, NAFEM is still the market to go.

To put this in context, the total sales by CBN so far to BDC's this year is around $60m. Now compare this to the volume being traded/turnover in NAFEM for just Q1 which is around $13 billion. Now tell me exactly how CBN is pegging the rate or how a 60 million would have any impact in such a market ( Recall I asked the Lord guy to do the numbers earlier and he bailed). Even with the velocity of money being accounted for, this 60m cant have the significant impact being discussed

Infact the major FX inflow so far has been from foreign remittances, which is why I was baiting the LORD guy when he kept saying the drop in CBN reserves was as a result of CBN intervention. Luckily for him, he didnt continue the conversation. There's still no evidence so far of any CBN’s sale or intervention in the NAFEM windows, so maybe you can ease off on the pegging noise and depletion of reserves

Now all of this are based on market data and the little transparency so far from the CBN and like I have mentioned in the past, it is still a short to mid-term win. Some of us in the market are still watching.

Now if you feel otherwise and feel strongly about the opposite. Maybe you can share your priviledged data with me or maybe even short the Naira and put your money where your mouth is like the Americans will say. I have attached the current FX futures quote to make it easy for you.

LordAdam16:
Semantics.
That's like SpaceX saying its Starship test rocket did not explode. Rather it experienced rapid unscheduled disassembly.
The CBN is not pegging the rate. It is engaging in market signaling.

We all know what we are doing.

-Lord

Meh.

Not going to engage in faulty logic or comparison.

Maybe first acquaint yourself with the functions of the CBN.

The market is transparent enough with willing buyers and sellers who are determining the rates. And very very liquid one at that.

Maybe you can enlighten me on the meaning of pegged currency, lets have the debate on that

LordAdam16:
It's not yet there.
But if recent history is any indication, this pre-emptive propaganda means the CBN is about to peg the rate at 900/950.

-Lord

Again, I dont know how many times this needs to be said, CBN isnt pegging any rate

This needs to be reiterated especially for those following. What CBN has been doing so far is what we call market signaling. There isnt or rather I havent seen any evidence of pegging so far

Jodera:
Jorginho at DM would make us maximize Rice more. Infact there's more understanding and fluidity with Jorg/Rice/Odegaard than with Rice/Odegaard/Havertz.

Immediately I saw that lineup, I just hoped for a win unlike previous weeks I was confident of wins

No further questions your honor

Jodera:
I still dey vex why we no start Jorginho sef

Didnt watch the match.

But why would you have preferred Jorginho starting if they say he was responsible for the loss

popizaino:


They are not difficult to predict.

With all the 1 million L wey you don chop, you're still talking

Mr cricketer plus elegant passes

OasisX:
KEY FACTS ABOUT THE PROPOSED NEW GENERAL MULTIPURPOSE NATIONAL IDENTITY CARD

1. The new National ID Card is a single, convenient, and General multipurpose card (GMPC) , eliminating the need for multiple cards—not three.

2. The single GMPC has multiple use cases: Payments/Financial, Government intervention/services, travel, etc

3. The National Identity Management Commission is working with the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System to deliver the payment and financial use cases.

4. The card will be powered by the AFRIGO card scheme, an indigenous scheme powered by NIBSS.

5. Applicants for the card will have to request with their NIN through the self-service online portal, NIMC offices, or their respective banks

6. The card will be issued through the applicants' respective banks in line with existing protocols with the issuance of the Debit/Credit cards.

7. The card can be picked up by holders at the designated center or delivered to the applicants at the requested location at an extra cost to be borne by the applicants.

I hope tax information will also be included.

Olowunl01:
Chief, he is being victimised, haba something everyone does. We Yoruba's sef suppose protest against such laws cos it is discriminatory to our culture of spraying money 😂😂😂 moreover people hardly spray dirty notes.

Case got to court judgement within 1month of offense such level of efficiency is un-nigerian.

Regarding his content, well it earns him income, also the online distractions are probably why some people are still sane in Naija, and contributes to the docility of its citizenry which helps the elite.

Interesting

What is the name of this culture and can you give more context historically?

Roland17:
On Onyema

Onyema isn’t asking for a “hand me down” from the government. What Onyema is asking for isn’t anything new across the world, including developed countries.

How do we incentivize local producers against multinationals in the face of globalization to encourage local entrepreneurs?

There are numerous policies/ legislations, tax breaks, incentives that should be afforded local companies, especially in developing countries like Nigeria competing from home.

There has to be some sort of “home advantage” that protects local companies. It is nothing new, it is done here in the US.

This debate is tunnel visioned on Onyema versus looking at it from a broader perspective as this affects every industry in the country. We are working hard to strengthen the Naira, this should be part of it.

Slightly disagree.

Even in the interview, he alluded to the fact that the current pricing is just reflective of fuel/jet fuel cost - In other words; not sustainable. Well except he's in business to keep making loss(es)

So what is the long term plan then; Cos from what I see, it looks like this - Enter the market with the local player sentiment, get some form of penetration, then hike the price later/join them to form an oligopoly. This is a private company, I still cannot see the play here. And the market responded well in my opinion cos competition really is a good tool and should be a driving force in any growing/developed economy

Government should be regulation oriented, levelling the playing field and removing any form or restrictive pricing mechanism not giving hand me downs to any local player in every industry especially one that's not remotely profitable and subject to all kinds of risk(s)

I dont know mahn.

Airline businesses all over the world are very capex intensive, highly leveraged and suffer from low to zero profitability.

Infact some of them are loss making. Beyond the noise of the low costs, he needs to be sure he can play the long game as I'm all for a free and competitive market. I also dont think governments should subsidize or intervene in the manner he's implying.

These other guys are foreign Investors and can read signals. Also, he started the price war and should be ready to play

User09:
I'm honestly puzzled as to the back and forth.

Anyway, the answer to all the exchanges may be in the links below. Extrapolate against our current position on the table and maybe the culprit can be chosen

https://footystats.org/england/premier-league/goals-scored-table

https://footystats.org/england/premier-league/goals-conceded-table

Like I mentioned earlier.

I still dont understand the reason for the back and forth arguments on attack vs defence when the answer as to why we are where we are currently in the league table is in the above link.

At least data doesnt lie. One thousand back and forths wouldnt change the reality

nihilistjnr:
When I say your striker, I'm talking generally, not ascribing him personally to you.

Based on any metric, Jackson had a stinker. 15 passes all game is terrible.

But the most damning metric of all is 0 shots in first half, 0 shots in second half.

Which is why I said, people will see whatever they want to see.

But I didnt say anything different,

I said he moved well, linked up play and the likes, but he still needed goals - which we all know to be the main job of a striker.

He had a very terrible second half, but that first half was still ok if you ignore the goals bit. And I'm not going back on that