₦airaland Forum

Aboki99:
Peter Obi's supporters are cock-a-hoop about what they see as the highest chance of their hero winning Nigeria's presidency next Saturday.

Are their optimism and excitement factually/statistically justified?

Let's do the arithmetic.

PO's strongholds are the SE and the SS, two zones with the least number of votes!. Granted that PO can scavenge some votes in the SW, but it's crystal clear that Tinubu will carry the day in SW eventually.

In the north, the Obidients rely on pockets of votes from northern xtians. But are these enough? Not at all. Since 1999, the northern xtians have never voted along the same line as the Muslim core North. For example they have never voted for Buhari. Yet, in 2014 and 2019 Buhari was able to win signifying the political insignificance of this voting bloc to a candidate that can garner votes in the core north and other parts (Tinubu?). Similarly, PMB was able to win elections without the votes of the SE and SS in both 2014 and 2019, which also trivializes the importance of these two Obi's main strongholds in determining the ultimate presidential winner.

So, for Obi to win the presidential election, he would, as a matter of necessity, need votes from Muslim voters in the north. But does he look set to get it? The truthful but bitter answer for Obidients to accept is No with a capital N. Problem is, the Obidients want to market Obi in the day as a pan-Nigerian candidate but brandish the news of Obi's endorsement by popular pastors/Churches whose altars Obi has turned to campaign platforms. This, rightly so, confuses the average northern Muslim voter and makes them pause to ask some legitimate questions[ Imagine Buhari going to the mosques to campaigns in 2014 or even 2019, what with the reaction be like from voters in say the SE?)

Not even the votes in Plateau and Benue, two states Obidients have also placed high, convoluted hope on can do anything to offset the bloc northern muslim votes. Here, the Obidients will conveniently bring up the issue of Kwankwaso who, as they argue passionately, will magically divide these votes for them to conquer and win the race. In making this highfalutin assumptions, the Obidients forget two crucial facts: 1) the muslim northern voters are never known, throughout Nigeria's political history, to cultivate the habit of wasting their votes. The average northern voter might not have gone to school but they're the most sophisticated; 2) Despite pulling some intimidating crowds in a couple of states esp in the nroth, the truth is Kano is Kwankwaso's main sphere of influence. Even there, I can't bet a penny that he'll win a simple majority for reasons adumbrated above.

Now, my only concern is what the reaction of the Obidients will be when the bubble of their alternative reality finally bursts. I hope they'll peacefully pick up the pieces, lick their wounds, move on and say "better luck next time".

Personally, I do not see any credible candidate worthy of my votes among the current pack of wolfs, but I know for sure that this 2023 election is a contest between Tinubu and Atiku. Yet, while I know this for a fact, I also have to admit that the outcome of this contest is highly unpredictable. Tinubu has 22 APC governors behind his back, huge war chest, media control and so on. Atiku has the support of some powerful members of PMB's kitchen cabinet, considerable war chest, and some current public angst to latch onto.

If you press me hard to rate the chances of the major contenders, I'll come up with something like these:
1. Tinubu 35%
2. Atiku 34
3. Obi 20%
4. Kwankwaso 9%

May God choose the best candidate for us.

The polls say he has the best chance. We are just scared of believing he does because we know how Nigeria is.

That's why everyone talks about structures which is just code word for vote-buying, vote-suppression and vote-rigging. But the will of the people will overcome all that <3

This is huge news if true. That means Obi wins taraba and I would not be surprised if this increases his percentages in one or two other states in the NE.

Obi's path to the spread is clear. Obi can easily win in the first ballot

Vote Obi <3

senatordave1:
Yabaleft things

I love you too my greatest <3

senatordave1:
By this time next week,you will recognize me as the greatest.you will worship me

senatordave1:
See this boy oh.it is clearly stated that at least 25% "in each" of two third of states.if they wanted it to be mandatory in fct,they would have used in instead of an.it would have been 25% in two thirds of the states and in fct not and.use your 36 boy,you are the only one pushing this ridiculous theory.have shame kid

Are you sure I am the only one asking? Omo greatest ever

senatordave1:
By this time next week,you will recognize me as the greatest.you will worship me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzNchKUi6MU

senatordave1:
Why do you enjoy disgracing yourself? We are talking of the constitution and you are bringing a subordinate act.are you ok? The constitution was clear,25% in two third of all the states and fct.if fct was mandatory,it would say and in fct not and fct.fct is never included in any state grouping,it is always accompanied with and

The constitution is clear indeed. Your APC glasses won't let you read it for what it says. The English meaning of that sentence is very simple. 25% in what? In two things: 1) two third of all the states, 2) FCT. Any other interpretation is applying different motive to the plain English of the constitution <3

But you're the greatest so what do i know lol

senatordave1:
By this time next week,you will recognize me as the greatest.you will worship me

senatordave1:
Guy,you have lost.you've lost the argument,you were saying it 24 meanwhile it is two third.take your L

A group of intellects interpreted the constitution here and said the same thing. But I'm sure you know best since you are the greatest

https://placng.org/i/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Electorl-Act-2010-Simplified.pdf

senatordave1:
By this time next week,you will recognize me as the greatest.you will worship me

senatordave1:
You quoted from a tertiary source...mine is directly from the constitution

134. (1) A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have be been duly elected, where,
there being only two candidates for the election -
(a) he has the majority of votes cast at the election; and
(b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in
the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
(2) A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there
being more than two candidates for the election-
(a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election;
and
(b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the
Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.





Look at the bolded.you have been disgracing yourself boy

Even in what you posted the English meaning is the same. Otherwise it would say including. You're clear panicked because your bf is in trouble in FCT lol

senatordave1:
By this time next week,you will recognize me as the greatest.you will worship me

Aww you're soo cute. I appreciate the offer. Truly. But I'm taken. Garfield1 is already my sugar mummy.

Thank you though <3

senatordave1:
Well,you could be right.if apc can carry out such in rivers,atiku has no chance.i repeat buhari will get 30% in rivers.

senatordave1:
You have issues oh.are you ok? Why are state capitals not mandatory for gov?

In each state every LGA has local government elections. FCT does not have gubernatorial election. It is different. The president choses a minister which governs FCT. So the president must secure 25% in FCT to win in the first ballot.

The constitution is very clear:

constitution: If the candidate gets a majority of “yes” over “no” votes cast in the election and at
least a quarter of votes cast in at least 24 States and the Federal Capital Territory.

senatordave1:
The constitution never said 24 states,it said two third of the states and fct.if fct was mandatory, it would have mentioned it clearly

It said 24 states. I quoted it word for word multiply times in this thread. Go and read it yourself if you are able lol

senatordave1:
Tinubu will bury obi in a runoff kid

You always talk nonsense

senatordave1:
Buhari will get 30% in anambra.

senatordave1:
Be mature and ask yourself if this requirement was there in the 1979 and 1960 constitutions

Be mature and read what the constitution says in plain and simple English

senatordave1:
Does this sound reasonable? Fct is half or a quasi state so it cannot be more special than a state.you have nothing reasonable to say

It is what the constitution says in plain and clear English. If it doesn't sound reasonable to you then you should go and check your reasoning Mr Garfield. Or continue wailing in multiple accounts lol <3

senatordave1:
It is a waste of time arguing with you.all you needed to do was to read the constitution and compare criterion for presidents and govs and see if there's a difference.the fct is looked at like a state that is why the constitution gives them a minister,reps members,special budgets.do you know abuja is the capital of the fact? Do you know that they have their own lgas called area councils?

A reasonable person will ask,why will 25% be mandatory in fct and not Lagos,rivers,kano or other states? Why are 25% not mandatory in state capitals? What is so special in fct,is it more important than states? Does it mean fct is more special than 24 states combined? Continue ranting.tinubu will trash pandora

PS: FCT is special because it is not a state. It has no gubernatorial elections. You must get 25% in FCT since you will appoint the minister that will essentially govern FCT.

You're welcome <3

senatordave1:
See childishness.bye kid

Too much facts for you?

Misterone:
Boyoo! that thing you are thinking is not correct. Abuja is not a state, that's why it is not mentioned as a state. If not we would have 37 states, which will lead to another constitutional crisis because we will then be looking for ⅔of 37, which is a fraction. The word "and" means at least 25. Abuja is not a must.

No you are wrong. The constitution says 24 states. It expresses 2/3 as 24 states. Not 24.6 or 25 but 24 states. It says so very clearly. We also know that according to the constitution FCT is not a state. It has no gubernatorial elections. senatordave1 keeps asking what is so special about FCT. This is it. You must get 25% in FCT since you will appoint the minister that will essential govern FCT.

The constitution clear says and. It is saying 24 states and FCT. It didn't say "25% in 2/3 of the states and FCT". No it said 24 states. And then FCT. It is very clear:

constitution: If the candidate gets a majority of “yes” over “no” votes cast in the election and at
least a quarter of votes cast in at least 24 States and the Federal Capital Territory.

senatordave1:
It is a waste of time arguing with you.all you needed to do was to read the constitution and compare criterion for presidents and govs and see if there's a difference.the fct is looked at like a state that is why the constitution gives them a minister,reps members,special budgets.do you know abuja is the capital of the fact? Do you know that they have their own lgas called area councils?

A reasonable person will ask,why will 25% be mandatory in fct and not Lagos,rivers,kano or other states? Why are 25% not mandatory in state capitals? What is so special in fct,is it more important than states? Does it mean fct is more special than 24 states combined? Continue ranting.tinubu will trash pandora

You are being dishonest which is why the simple English of the constitution is frustrating you lol. Go and ask our founding fathers why they did it like that but the English is very very clear. FCT is not a state according to the constitution. I'm sorry it isn't what you wish it was <3

You can usually tell someone has lost an argument when then start hurling names lol. It is not personal, I love you but I will always hate the party that has given us the worst federal government in the history of our country <3

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC <3

Ttalk:
Obidients are not capable of making sense, so I ignore your concoction

Okay genius <3 <3 <3

senatordave1:
If you travel round rural areas of ss,you won't utter this rubbish.apc have a big chance of winning crs and will likely get 25% in all ss states.buhari got 25% in 5 ss states.most people dont care about that mm ticket....

Idiotic statement yet again. Buhari only did that when he was running against a fellow Muslim Fulani man. In 2015 Buhari got 6% in Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom, 4% in Delta and Rivers (despite the backing of the sitting Governor) and 1% in Bayelsa (Jonathan's home state)

Demographics is king <3

PS: I hope APC keep wasting their time and resources there

senatordave1:
If you understand the constitution, you won't be wailing and ranting.constitutionally, what applies to president applies to govs.qualifications for president and govs are exactly the same.therefore,the spread for gov and presidential polls are same.it is not a must to get 25% in fct.I don't know why zombidients are stubbornly childish

Where in the constitution does it say that "what applies to president applies to govs"? Show me the exact section lol. FCT is not a state. It is something unique to the federal level. Go and read your constitution and stop wailing about what the constitution says in very plain English.

Calling me names for reading simple English you know. You people never cease to amaze me. You want to re-interpret the constitution in your tribal language because you know that most enlightened people in the capital have rejected your disgrace of a party.

But don't worry, it is not only FCT that has rejected them, it is everyone. If we are lucky, APC will be humiliated for giving us the worst federal government in the history of our great country. And even those closest to you will celebrate and be thankful <3

senatordave1:
Tinubu can still win ne with just borno and yobe.realistically,apc dominates nw so he will likely win there.
A lot of places in ss are apc friendly

The demographics of the SS are hostile to a MM ticket. It's just a fact. Similar to how the demographics of the Core North are hostile to Peter Obi.

APC will do well to get 25% in more than one state there. Winning 2 SS states is just not happening for APC. Even in fantasy land <3

Before the 2015 elections, Governor Chibuike Amaechi (Rivers state Governor at the time) defected to APC and supported Buhari. Despite all his efforts, do you know what percentage Buhari scored there? Take a wild guess

He scored 4%. Demographics is king

senatordave1:
Funny you.if pdp and lp have 72%,it is left with 28% and apc can have 25%....
Assuming they dont meet the spread,it will go to a runoff with obi and Tinubu will trash obi badly.

I have told you that the constitution meant that you must count fct as a state which means 37 states so the spread must be in 25 states.if you look at that of governors,it said 25% in two third of the lgas.it never said 25% must be mandatory in state capitals.same applies to the presidential

Why should I disregard my understanding of English language and listen to some wailer on the internet posting made up polls and supporting the party that has given us the worst government in the history of our great country? Why? Be there telling yourself lol.

The part for the presidential election is already quoted in my first post. It is very clear. I'll quote it again below since you're clearly in shock lol. Go and be interpreting gubernatorial section in your tribal language if you want lol

constitution: If the candidate gets a majority of “yes” over “no” votes cast in the election and at
least a quarter of votes cast in at least 24 States and the Federal Capital Territory.

Mylove55:
This has been the same projection I made,
Apc will win 6 nw, 4 ne, 2 ss and 6 sw

Demographics will teach you a lesson on Saturday. If you think that Tinubu can claim to have singlehandedly given us the worst federal government in the history of our great country and then run on the same party with a MM ticket and the great people of the SS will vote for him so much so that he will win two states there then I have a bridge to sell you. Good price I promise lol

The SS is hostile to Tinubu and APC just like the Core North is hostile to LP. Demographics is always king. Tinubu chose to pander to the core north. Let us see if it works lol. If you also think Tinubu will win more states in NE than Atiku who hail from that region then I have another bridge to sell you. 2 for 1 discount

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC <3

senatordave1:
I thought we settled this before.it said pdp will win fct,didnt say who will take 2nd or who won't get 25%.
Fct is counted as a state,that is you will get 25% in 25 states

Settled what where? I quoted the constitution in plain English. It says you need 25% in 24 states and FCT. Those results clearly include undisclosed and undecided. If LP and PDP scored 72% of the votes then APC almost definitely fell short of 25% even in this made up poll lol.

They are struggling badly in FCT which is why you people are trying to interpret the constitution in your tribal language. It won't work. You have no path to victory in the first ballot.

But frankly speaking the man that pioneered the worst federal government in the history of our great country has been rejected everywhere. We the people just need to destroy he so called structure on Saturday <3

senatordave1:
A total of 370,000 questionnaires were sent out, the firm noted, adding that 287, 033 were returned.

The survey gives the PDP the victory in the Federal Capital Territory (39 per cent), with Labour Party taking the second position (33 per cent).

Sent out? By mail, email or post

This made up poll doesn't think APC can get 25% in FCT. So even here they have no chance to win in the first ballot according to the constitution:

constitution: If the candidate gets a majority of “yes” over “no” votes cast in the election and at
least a quarter of votes cast in at least 24 States and the Federal Capital Territory.

The man and party that have given us the worst federal government in the history of our great country have been rejected.

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC <3

Mfetenang:
Your analysis was making sense until you said that Obi will be 1st in the South South, seriously what do you take the people of the South South for?
Do you think we're that stupid to vote for an Igbo man?
I don't really understand where all this attachment is coming from but I know that someone will be very disappointed when he sees the results from the South South next weekend.

The SS people will vote for the best candidate like they have always done.

Of course there will always be one or two sadistic individuals that will vote for the party that has given us the worst federal government in the history of our great country to give them their 5% there but they are insignificant lol

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC <3

Ttalk:
I always appreciate when people use the right words and phrases, saying that Tinubu is a lightweight portrays you as uneducated, immature, and grossly ignorant.

Despite your trying to hide your fears I can see it clearly in the way you write as Obi's defeat stared through into your heart.

You have no choice but to accept what you can't change

Stop wailing like a 5 month old parrot and respond to the facts that he wrote lol

PS: your opening post is easily the dumbest thing I've read on nairaland. And we all post dumb things here everyday so that must have taking some real skill to achieve. You should be proud of yourself lol

bigdammyj:
My vote is for Tinubu.

Reads like a cry for help. It is well brother <3

MikeofAfrica:
The reality on ground is that Tinubu is a feather weight politician.

The results of 2019 presidential election proved that. While Buhari lockdown the entire NW region with landslide victory, Tinubu and his allies could not manage a landslide victory for APC in any SW state.

Is it the igbos that made APC to loss Oyo and Ondo at last presidential election? Is it the igbos that has made it impossible for Tinubu and his allies to win the last two Osun guber elections?

The only hope that Tinubu has in this election is party structure and rigging. Assuming Tinubu is the candidate of Labour party, he will not win a single state in Nigeria because he is a feather weight.

Hence even if the igbos in Lagos decides not to vote, Tinubu will still not get a landslide in Lagos. Without party structure and rigging, Tinubu will loss his polling unit to Peter Obi.

Stone cold facts. Garfield1 will not like this lol