₦airaland Forum

Workch:
leave Kano.
Kano is a waste of time.

It will be a waste of resources invest scarce resources in northwest except Kaduna. Those guys are to tribalistic and religious to convince.

I meant for popular vote.

I agree 25% spread is impossible there but 10% in Kano is a lot of votes. Even more than LP might get in some states that they win. So they have to keep pushing there and focus on areas with friendly demographics

The popular vote is most important. You can't lose on the first ballot if you win that

Penguin2:
If I were part of LP strategists, I won’t advise them to waste time in Kano.

I’d rather they focus more on Kwara, Nasarawa, Kogi, Oyo and Osun.

No need pursuing a lost course.

I agree for 25% spread but they still want to win the popular vote too so they can't stop pushing in Kano. 10% in Kano is a lot of votes. Even more than LP might get in some states that they win.

The popular vote is most important. You can't lose on the first ballot if you win that

Digitron:
It is a difficult one indeed. My fear is that LP will be vulnerable if we go into a run off.

An LP vs APC run off favours APC and
An LP vs PDP run off also favours PDP.

The only feasible path to LP 24 state is

SE: All SE (5)
SW: All except (Osun) (5)
SS: All SS (6)

NC: Nassarawa, Kogi, Benue and Plateau (4)
NE: Adamawa and Taraba and Gombe
NW: Kaduna

States that may produce surprises are Niger, Gombe and Borno. I have seen increased activities in these states recently and I am hoping for a 'miracle'.

You think LP is completely lost in Niger?

Based on these results they should be targeting those states as well as Niger, Osun and Kwara.

The only other state I'd pour resources into at this stage is Kano due to its huge population for the popular vote but they're not getting 25% there.

David160:
Amaechi couldn't deliver rivers as a sitting governor.. Despite Buhari popularity in 2015 and him having a Christian VP.

It's now Wike as corrupt as he his that will deliver a Muslim Muslim ticket.

When you say it like that it makes the OP sound crazy.

Have some mercy lol

obailala:
Very similar to my projections; I also predicted 22 states where LP is likely to get 25% of votes. Only difference is that I didnt include Niger and Kogi but included Oyo and Osun.

PDP actually won Osun in this poll. LP should definitely be working very hard there to see if they can steal some PDP voters and hit 25% there.

Yeah I was a little surprised by Niger and Kogi but those are the numbers

tesppidd:
I think it is illogical to expect that the winner must get 25 percent in the FCT, I mean what is so special about the FCT?

My own interpretation is that;

the winner must achieve 25 percent in 24 states.
i.e. Either of these 2 ways;

1. Get it in 24 states without the FCT or
2. Get it in 23 states and then also get it in the FCT.

You could say FCT should have the most diverse population but I don't want to get into the logic personally. I have admitted that it is vague and can be interpreted in different ways. I went with the straightforward english language interpretation of the constitution. No idea if that was the intention of the people that wrote it.

I think it is a bit ridiculous that INEC have still not clarified this. I hope it doesn't become a big issue after the election.

garfield1:
Denying apc 25% in edo,rivers,crs bayelsa is funny while you allocated 25% to them in sw.obi won't see 25% outside lagos

I didn't allocate anything my friend. These are bantupage polls but with undecided/undisclosed removed. It is not my personal opinion lol. Remember you called this poll the "best so far".

You can do the maths yourself and get the same result.

garfield1:
This is the best poll so far,close to reality

garfield1:
Getting the spread in fct is not important.what the law says is 25 states factoring in fct

Do you have a source? This seems to be an issue of contention and an INEC official failed to answer the question when asked on channels last month. I'll try find the video later.

The constitution says:

If the candidate gets a majority of “yes” over “no” votes cast in the election and at
least a quarter of votes cast in at least 24 States and the Federal Capital Territory.

The straightforward interpretation of that line means that the candidate needs 25% in 24 states and also needs 25% in FCT. But it can also be interpreted the way you have done.

Someone else asked this question here https://www.nairaland.com/7443122/question-constitutional-requirement-presidential-election

Key takeaways according to these adjusted results:

- None of the candidates hit the spread despite adjustment to remove undecided/undisclosed but LP/Obi was the closest with 22 states as well as FCT

- LP have the most number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). But they also seem to have the best chance of hitting the spread as they just missed it in Gombe and Kwara

- APC have the least number of states where they are extremely unlikely to get 25% (dark red states). Tinubu got the second highest spread with 18 states (including the unpolled Zamfara).

- PDP only hit the spread in 3 states in the south (Osun, Oyo and Bayelsa). Atiku had the lowest spread out of the main three candidates

- APC and PDP missed the spread in FCT. They need to hit 25% in FCT to be able to win in the first ballot


Edit to add more takeaways:

- There is one state where LP hit 25% in this adjusted poll but where Jonathan got less than 25% in 2015: Niger State. Atiku only got 25.59% there in 2019. LP's support could be overrated here

- There are 4 states where Jonathan hit 25% in 2015 but LP got less than 25% in this adjusted poll: Kwara, Osun, Oyo, Adamawa.

- Jonathan got 19% in Zamfara in 2015. Bantupage didn't poll Zamfara.

- Atiku hit 25% in 2019 in all the states that LP also hit 25% in this adjusted poll. Atiku is still on the ballot this time around

Places where this poll is giving LP significantly higher percentages than Jonathan in 2015:
- Benue +27.6
- Plateau +26.61
- Niger +22.64
- Edo +21.08
- FCT +17.51
- Nassarawa +11.93

That is 4 NC states plus FCT and Edo. The poll is clearly hinting at an Obidient movement in the middle belt.


Cc:
Digitron
Penguin2
Eriokanmi
Garfield1
Nlfpmod
Seun
Trollronaldo

.

(SUCCINCT IMAGES BELOW 👇)

If you look at the raw bantupage poll percentages it would seem like none of the candidates have any realistic path to the spread. However most of their state polls have huge amount of undecided/undisclosed votes.

What if we removed these undecided/undisclosed voters and readjusted the percentages based on just the figures for LP, APC, PDP and NNPP?

I decided to do it myself to see what the results would look like and I have some beautiful images to show you:

Image 5) shows the raw bantupage poll results as well as the adjusted percentages when we exclude undisclosed/undecided voters. Note that Ondo, Cross Rivers, Delta, Edo and Akwa Ibom were polled twice.

Image 4) shows approximated adjusted results when we combine the results for the states that were polled twice and divide by two. Note that bantupage does not release the number of people polled in each time so this blindly assumes that the same number of people were polled each time. Due to approximation, summation of all the state percentages won't always add up to exactly 100 for every state but it should be close

image 3) snake chart showing the path to the spread for PDP.

Image 2) snake chart showing the path to the spread for APC.

Image 1) snake chart showing the path to the spread for LP.

NOTE: Bantupage didn't poll Zamfara so I have attributed 0% to LP, 50% to PDP and 50% to APC based on common perception about the voting pattern of the state

Bantupage poll is here https://bantupage.com/breaking-down-bantupages-december-2022-and-january-2023-poll/

The worst federal government in the history of our great country?

Okay he can continue the legacy in his household

Reject APC. Vote Obi, or literally anyone else <3

HellVictorinho7:
You know non-apc supporters are dying because of the cbn nonsense but your lawyers will still argue that because you will deny it. Why do you support what is killing people more often? Call me names then call the police ! That will change nothing. You say it has benefits. What a show of selfishness called benefits. I have lost hope in nigeria. The elections will not help the economy. The absence won't change anything . I live in nigeria too,awaiting your worst.

We are still experiencing the worst federal government in the history of our great country but you must remember:

It is not Buhari's fault

It is also not APC's fault

It is also not Tinubu fault

It is the fault of obidients lol

Buhari gave us the worst federal government in the history of our great country. He is confident that Tinubu can break his record.

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC <3

ImmaculateJOE:
Why are you lots so scared to blame Buhari for all the woes of the country for the past 8 years..

When GEJ faltered, you guys blamed him and not his cycle.. Why is PMB own different..?

We have just experienced the worst federal government in the history of our great country but you must remember:

It is not Buhari's fault

It is also not APC's fault

It is not Tinubu fault

So we must vote APC again to see prosperity return to Nigeria lol

drlateef:
The only presidential candidate who has promised to reverse the deadline is Bola Ahmed Tinubu. So if you want the cabal to be defeated and deadline of Emefiele reversed, vote Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He is the fighter for the masses. He is not contesting to amass wealth. He is already wealthy and successful. Thats the person Nigeria needs. He is very intelligent and very experienced with resources at his disposal. He is the best recruiter of the best brains to help recover Nigeria. Vote for him and see prosperity return to Nigeria.

The only candidate who refuses to take questions from the media & masses is Bola Ahmed Tinubu. So if you want an arrogant cabal to keep running the country in reverse, vote Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He is the oppressor of the masses. He is contesting to amass more wealth. He is already wealthy by corruption. Making a living off Nigeria's needs. He very intelligent and experienced at stealing everything at his disposal. He is the best recruiter of the very best thugs to help loot Nigeria. Vote for him and see prosperity never return to Nigeria.


Just did some small corrections. Don't worry it's free of charge <3

Penguin2:
So bad to see that you fell for the propagandists.

Peter Obi supporters are not IPOB supporters.

Are Edo, Plateau, Benue people IPOB supporters?

Intelligent people like you should do better than believe those bullshits.

It’s like saying that Atiku is Bandit candidate and I hold that against him. Does it make sense?

If you think the person you're replying to is "intelligent" then I have a bridge to sell you

Read their other comments and you will apologise to him for making that false accusation lol

mandarin:
Don't be interested in my opinion. If you are from those states you would know the voting population across those regions favor their home boys- simple. I said, so that in the end it doesn't look like elections were rigged, LP cannot gather 25% in the Southwest outside of Lagos. Whatever is it that will make PO deny AA and BAT 25% in the SE is what will also work for the other two candidates in their regions.

The bolded part made me laugh lol. What you say or don't say won't be used by anyone to conclude if the election was rigged or not so you can relax and enjoy the rest of your day lol

Still don't care what you think. More interested in the scientific polls where professional people have gone to those same places and asked the necessary questions

Thanks though <3

Trollronaldo:
I don't see any candidate getting 25% in 24 states.

This election is going to a rerun

That is what the polls say so I'm inclined to agree with you. But Obi does have a path to 24 states. More so than any other candidate. This is based on the poll numbers, others can disagree based on "structures" or whatever lol

He will need to outperform the polls by just a couple of percentage points in places like Gombe and Kwara. Unlikely but not impossible.

He should also be pushing hard to steal more PDP votes in southwest states like Osun and Oyo. The odds are not in his favour but crazier things have happened

lhordspy:
This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians , Northern christian , Igbo voters .

It reeks of sentiment, partitioning, and divisiveness ; not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

Election prediction is about demographics.

If you don't like it you can keep wailing. We are here for you. Babysitting wailers is a personal hobby of mine <3

Obaaderemi2:
Forget kogi. They vote like the northerners. It's APC ground.

Since we are doing opinions; no where is APC ground. They gave us the worst federal government in the history of our great country. They will be rejected.

However the scientific polls show that all 3 parties will stand a good chance for 25% there.

Thanks though <3

mandarin:
Obi cannot get 25% outside of Lagos in the Southwest. This is necessary for the sanity of those pushing the narratives. What will make PO winner of the majority votes in the SE is what will help AA in the North and BAT in the SW.

Thank you for your contribution kind sir

But the polls show he has a good chance in Ondo, Ogun and Ekiti. That’s what I’m interested in rather than your opinion. Thanks again <3

Obi must love his chances of getting 25% in each of these states. He will likely win at least 2 of them (Benue and Plateau) and could even win more depending on how the other candidates split the vote in some of the other states. The problem is the odds drop when you accumulate them. Can he hit 25% in all of them at the same time?

With 17 states in the south that should be the magic number 24 and this excludes places like Gombe where he might have a long shot.

But can he also get 25% in all 6 states in the southwest too? From everything I’ve seen that looks unlikely but something I’ve learnt from 538 projection of US elections is that results rarely stand alone. If Obi performs so well that he hits 25% in all 7 of these northern states then he is likely to be over performing expectations all over the country and that could spill over to the southwest too

Will be interesting to watch. Very nice post btw. Thank you <3

kcbaba007:
Some allegations are better left unanswered, the stage where obi is now, he does not need to respond to all fake news, propaganda and allegations, the people around him, will respond to it.... He is bigger than all that now, he needs to be more focused in creating better awareness of his intentions for Nigerians as president, and leave mudslinging to the pigs....

Exactly! Just felt wrong watching him respond to something completely baseless. Tbh it is also irresponsible of the interviewer to ask him the question in that manner when they should know that it has already been debunked as fake news.

SLAP44:
Why does Tinubu employ people with low mentality to work on his propaganda?

Like in this great country of ours this is the best he can find. It is shameful

I thought “he employs the best people”. Sounds like that was a lie too lol

Millions of votes for a structureless party with just 4 people tweeting in a room

Obi has come a long way.

Vote Obi <3

StPete:
So as Seun asked him the question, he shouldn’t have responded?

I thought he would have said “that has been debunked” and moved on.

It has been debunked. There was no need to give it any air. Just my two cents

Coolsperm:
This Tinubu sef and foolishness, how can a man as old as Tinubu wish to rule a country that is very sick

He is delusional

Laspotect247:
I wish obi well but I’m voting Atiku Abubakar - omobabaijebu


For the very first time in the history of our dear country, we are having a people oriented campaign. Some of our people have found a new love in Peter Obi and truth be told, Peter Obi has brought a new rhythm to Nigeria political Space.

In 12 days time, we will decide the destiny of this country, who will lead us in the next four years. All presidential candidates have worked so hard, preaching the gospel of what they have to offer to Nigerians and I expect that everyone should have picked a side. There’s no sitting on the fence at this time, it’s either you’re obidient or Atikulated or you are chewing corn.

What Peter Obi is doing is unprecedented, a new Nigeria, a Nigeria that will work for all, as such so many people have jettisoned party politics, ethnic loyalty etc to support his campaign.

Should Peter emerge, will he deliver the Nigeria of our dreams? Only God can decide that as no politician on earth can be trusted, you can elect a good man today and the agent of darkness frustrates his effort to deliver good governance to the people.


Wait a min, there’s a man from Jada Town in Adamawa state, unfairly judged and have been given all sort of name, he’s Atiku Abubakar the man I will supporting in this election, there’s actually nothing you’re looking for in a good politician that you will not find in Atiku Abubakar.

As the former Vice president of our nation, he’s experienced and understands perfectly the challenges facing the nation, A father, business mogul and philanthropist.

I believe Atiku will deliver the Nigeria of our dreams, he also has the required popularity to win the election, loved by many and hated by a few unscrupulous politicians. Day by day we edge closer to Atiku's presidency and I’m glad that help is coming soon.

I wish Peter Obi well, it’s okay to dream but not all dreams come true, the Peter Obi presidency is achievable, maybe not 2023, but surely one day Nigerians should get ready for an OBI presidency, I’m sure he’s destined for that seat one day.

Alas, may the best strategist win.

As an Obidient, sometimes I’m tempted to engage Atikulated people in a polarising manner.

But in the end I’m just grateful that a fellow Nigerian is rejecting APC for giving us the worst federal government in the history of our great country and voting for something different. So God bless.

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC <3

Nothing but facts bro <3

Do the needful on Feb 25th. Let the chips fall where they may

.

MrNotAgain:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1h_rgm4trPw

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi, has finally reacted to the allegation that he gave N2bn to CAN.

Mynd44 Nlfpmod Lalasticlala

A little disappointed he wasted his time responding to baseless claims tbh

But we move