₦airaland Forum

Mynd44, Dominique, Justwise rules 2, 3, 11. Tribal incitement, "East" here is a veiled reference to the ibos.

lhordspy:
Yoruba is one. Ibile united.

No matter how the enemy from the East try to divide us across religious lines just for their own personal political gain, and also with the evil intention to make us useless, non-influential and inconsequential - nationally, politically, generally and as human being, just like they are now presently. No matter how hard they try to cause dis-unity hatred and envy among the yorubas. We are still standing, and we will continue to stand - together and forever. iBile forever

We will dance, rejoice while we watch you and your rejected and scavanger of a people, scattered all over the world like homeless lot, engaging in hate envy, dragging land with their hosts, and probably later end it all by jumping off the new Niger bridge or suffocate on excess intake of Mpkurumiri.

We will drink to your end.....



And Tinubu will still be 16th President of Nigeria.

Lagos will do very well for Obi... But Oyo and Osun, I very much doubt. These states have a high rural population compared to Lagos. And for the rural populace, it is either tribe, religion or party affiliation unfortunately

JoeNL22:
Atiku can't have an edge over obi in the southwest.

Lagos, oyo and Osun will definitely do well for obi....does he expect the south to vote for him after 8 Years of Buhari?......for example, my big bro hates politics, he doesn't know who he will vote for between obi and Tinubu, but he said Atiku is out of it. According to him...."I won't vote Atiku.....it's the turn of the south"

I can't guarantee you obi will win the southwest, but I can guarantee you Atiku won't see 10% from the SW.

I agree with you

marod:
Even in the worse case scenario, Tinubu still wins. Its not about the percentage, but the total number of eligible voters in each region.

Let us consider the number and assume voters' turn out in each of these regions to be 50%.

NW - 22.67m - 11.34m
SW - 18.30m - 9.15m
SS - 15.20m - 7.60m
NC - 14.10m - 7.05m
NE - 12.80m - 6.40m
SE - 11.49m - 5.75m

Tinubu Atiku Obi

40% 30% 10% NW
4.54m 3.40m 1.13m

60% 20% 15% SW
4.58m 1.83m 1.37m

10% 25% 60% SS
0.76m 1.90m 4.56m

40% 35% 15% NC
2.82m 2.47m 1.06m

30% 55% 10% NE
1.92m 3.52m 0.64m

5% 10% 80% SE
0.29m 0.58m 4.6m

15.54m 13.7m 13.36m


This is the worst that can happen to Tinubu. Atiku can also perform slight better or slightly worse than this. This is the best result Obi can get.

Thanks for doing the math indepth.

marod:
With this prediction, let us assume each zone has 50% voters' turnout.

NW - 22.67m - 11.34m
SW - 18.30m - 9.15m
SS - 15.20m - 7.60m
NC - 14.10m - 7.05m
NE - 12.80m - 6.40m
SE - 11.49m - 5.75m

Tinubu Atiku Obi
50% 25% 25% SW
4.58m 2.29m 2.29m

8% 12% 80% SE
0.46m 0.69m 4.6m

10% 15% 75% SS
0.76m 1.14m 5.7m

42% 46% 12% NE
2.69m 2.94m 0.77m

47% 45% 8% NW
5.33m 5.10m 0.91m

40% 35% 25% NC
2.82m 2.47m 1.76m

16.64m 14.63m 16.03m

Looking at it from that angle, I must say I agree with you

Donnie20:
It's kind of confusing trying to give Obi an edge over Atiku in the SW.

Tinubu is surely winning some SW States, if not all.

And of course, Obi may do well in Lagos, but the rest of the states, I doubt it.

So, I can say, SW is more of Tinubu, Atiku, and then Obi.

Many people will. Tribe and religion are more important to Nigerians than suffering and hardship.

JoeNL22:
Don't mind them jare.......I wonder who would want to vote APC & PDP after how many years of suffering & hardship

Many boko haram sympathizers are in the core north. Deep down, the average core northerner doesn't really disagree with the ideals of boko haram.

JoeNL22:
Don't mind them bro......I wonder which individual will vote a boko haram sympathiser into power!

I agree with you. You're spot on. The South will likely witness more changes, while the north will largely remain the same.

JoeNL22:
The people of SE, SS, SW and NC are too exposed to be influenced by politicians irrespective of the political parties involved . They know their left and right when it comes to voting for a right candidate during election.

This is the more reasons why some unpopular/unknown political parties are controlling some positions at the National Assembly apart from PDP and APC, even though some of them defected to bigger parties after election. What this means is that these 4 regions have an independent mind of their own.

But this not applicable in the NE and NW where they are heavily influenced by Tribal and religious affiliations. Even PDP was controlling Kastina state and other NE and NW ststes till 2015. The then PDP governors couldn't deliver their states, it was a total swap of goverment. The National chairman of then PDP Adamu Muazu couldn't deliver his Bauchi state too.

Stop hoping and be hiding your candidate in structure because in the SE, SS, SW and MB/NC no candidate would be saved by structure but personality during this presidential election. Then in NE and NW, tribal and religious affiliations have a lot of role to play

Many southerners are voting all parties at different levels during General elections..

Some of us are voting..
PDP at house assembly level
APC at Reps level
SDP at Senate level
APGA at Governorship level
Labour Party at presidential level..

You should understand 1 thing!, 2023 will be different especially in the SOUTH. But the CORE North will likely remain the same.

Bro, I also lived in Kaduna. If muslims used dioceses and have defined denominations like Anglican, Catholics, etc, then, given their population, there would have been at least 4 Muslim dioceses to every 1 Christian dioceses. The muslims are at least quadruple the Christians in Kaduna, it is not 60-40 at all, it is way way more than that.
Kaduna is almost the opposite of Plateau where the Christians far outnumber the muslims. It is a state like Taraba you have a 60-40 arrangement in favour of the Christians.
For neutrals who may not really be familiar with the north, you get an idea how they stack up with the politics. Religious divisiveness is highest there, so, who controls the numbers has the upper hand. The other takes deputy or nothing at all if your numbers are not so much. No matter the gragra of the hausa-fulani, they can't control a state they don't have majority population. They control Kaduna because they have a far superior population.

Okpeke22:
If I haven't lived in Nasarawa and Kaduna states, I would've believed the stats you gave. Like Nasarawa like Adamawa, many people do not know the two states have more christian populations than Muslims but unfortunately lack the power to change much politically.
As fir Kaduna, it's laughable that you think Christians form only 20% of the population. The Christians in Kaduna South are more than 20%, when you add the christian population in places like Zaria, Sabon Gari, Giwa, Kudan, Lere, Mskarfi you have something approaching 40%. Do you know the Catholic Church in Kaduna has three dioceses and 2 I think for the Anglicans? Think about that.
With how much they have suffered in the hands of El-Rufai and the APC Muslim-Muslim ticket, the people are ready.

Yes. A Senatorial zone is roughly one-third of a state. The senatorial zone having the majority of southern kaduna Christians is always certain to produce a Christian senator.

kcnwaigbo:
So 20% control a Senatorial zone? Oga abeg fear God small

You got the religious stats of Benue correctly. However, politically, Benue seem to have an almost Stockholm syndrome like mentality for APC and PDP, whether it is the mass iliteracy and extreme poverty in the state that is the cause, I don't know.
You also got the religious stat for Plateau correct, but it is not such a populated state, so in terms of raw numbers, that 75% might not be so much as to cancel the other shortfalls.
For Nasarawa, bro, you got it totally wrong. Nasarawa is at least 60% Muslim, don't let anyone deceive you. I think what people misconstrue as "huge Christian population" in some of these northern states is merely the fact that, these states have a recognizable portion of Christians compared to other contiguous states. Not that the Christians are so much that they form the majority. A case in point is Kaduna. Most people in the south erroneously think Kaduna is like 50-50 or 60-40 for Muslims a d Christians, but that is a fantasy, Kaduna is like 80-20 to the Muslims, no cap.
As for Kogi, Kwara, Niger, these states are low key almost more islamically fanatical than the Sokotos and Kanos.. I doubt Obi will see much from there

Okpeke22:
Realistic permutation and you dismiss the christian population in the North Central as not being substantial enough as most people think. How much do you know of the zone, I doubt you know much
Now let me break it down for you as someone who has stayed in many of the states there for considerable number of years.
Benue State is 99% Christian and about 90% of them are OBIdient for president though APC may likely win the gubernatorial election.
Plateau State is about 75% Christian and majority, say 90% are OBIdient.
Nasarawa State is about 50-55% Christian and majority are OBIdient, I know so many Muslims there too who are OBIdient.
Kogi, Kwara and Niger States have same demography with Muslims dominating Niger States and I know many in those states are OBIdient.
Abuja is locked down for him.

So Obi will win the North Central.

In the South West, Obi will get more than the 25% you gave him because his popularity is growing there. Tinubu will win of course but Obi will get very massive votes there. The margin of victory may not even be as huge as you think.

In the North East, Obi is taking Taraba State, will get substantial votes in Adamawa, Bauchi and Gombe. Not too sure about Yobe and Borno.

Where Obi isn't expected to perform well is in the North West but look out for surprises particularly in Kaduna, Kebbi.

Unfortunately, people are not. Nigerians are not wiser. Tribal, religious and party affiliations are still the bane of our country. In the core north, in the deep southwest, people still tell people who to vote for, and they comply. It is the harsh reality. That is why politicians like the status quo of illiteracy, hunger, tribal and religious gaslighting. This is the reality

successmatters:
Stop assuming Nigerians are robots. That era where someone tells voters to vote for a particular candidate is gone. People are now getting wiser.

This permutation takes into cognizance the major factors that shape our elections in Nigeria, i.e ethnicity, religion, party loyalty and voter objectivity.
It also focuses on the three main contenders who stand realistic chances of clinching the race.

Analysis:
In the southwest, a combination of tribal loyalty and party factor will give Tinubu a win. While Atiku and Obi will share the rest equally. Atiku's share will majorly come from party loyalty while Obi's own will be from both tribal (ibos and others in lagos) and objectivity (yorubas who don't share the tribal sentiment).

In the Southeast and southsouth, fierce tribal loyalty will give Obi a big win (especially in the east) while Atiku will nick Tinubu to second place on account of party loyalty votes.

In the northeast, Atiku will take top spot narrowly edging Tinubu on account of religion and region of origin. But Tinubu will put up a good showing on account of his much loved Vice and strong party structure. Obi will have very minimal votes here.
But in the northwest, Atiku and Tinubu will swap places. This is on account of APC having a better party following and an appealing muslim-muslim ticket. Atiku will also do well as tribal and religious sentiments also favour him. Obi's perfomance will be most dismal here.

In the North central, party loyalty reigns supreme in this region for some inexplainable reasons. Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger are staunch APC states. Even Benue that has had it rough in this present regime somehow still give APC sizeable votes. For the religious factors, the Christian population isn't as substantial as people think. The four aforementioned states will give Tinubu a win in the region, while Atiku will come a close second on account of party structure and religious sentiments. And Obi a substantial 3rd on account of the bit of Christian sentiments.


OVERALL SUMMARY

Tinubu Atiku Obi
50% 25% 25% SW
8% 12% 80% SE
10% 15% 75% SS
42% 46% 12% NE
47% 45% 8% NW
40% 35% 25% NC

Verdict
The election is close to call, the actual number of voters that turn up will determine what these percentages will amount to in real numbers.
Tinubu seems to have a slight advantage as the areas he has good projections also historically post impressive turn outs. But whether they will be sufficiently motivated to for him is another thing altogether.
For Peter Obi, if Nigerians were more objective and less swayed by tribe, religion and party affiliations, he would have stood the best chances. But unfortunately, party loyalty is a big thing among a majority poor, uneducated population.
While for Atiku, he stands a realistic chance of upending Tinubu if he can manage to get tribe and religion to overtake party structure and loyalty in regions Tinubu looks set to take that he considers his backyard. And he has realized this and is going full throttle in that quest.
Inteesting times ahead.

These stats are too ambitious.
I'd say :
90% Southeast
80% South South
30% Southwest
20% North Central
10% North West
5% North East

Nobody is ignoring. Nobody is saying we are not a terrorised country. What I'm saying is simply, for you to go and obtain a copy of the advisory and read it for yourself. They listed activities of Niger delta militants as part of the reasons they are evacuating their personnel. Now, their personnel in the nigerdelta are mostly oil workers in the oil facilities, you as a Nigerian living in main street warri have no such threats to be afraid of from the militants. They listed traffic robbery as advisory for their people in lagos. You that live in lagos shouldn't start panicking over that. They listed hostility towards the LGBTQ community as an advisory to their people, you that is not gay in Nigeria won't start panicking over that. These people aren't God. You guys should stop having inferiority complex. The so-called intelligence they put out was compiled by people like you and I, using data that you and I know.

ogatboy:
To the point of evacuating non-essential staffs and non-emergency staff? Terror is coming in Nigeria, the government needs to be transparent. Remember General Danjuma telling people to harm theirselves recently? Yea there is something cooking. Ignore at your own risk

Only you said shut up, only you contradicted your own self in your own comment. Read what you wrote.

Heathrow44:
shut up, anytime there's this heavy security alert there must have been actionable intelligence, but all d same, This security alert is not intended to cause panic, but in other news it might be used as propaganda to discourage Nigerians abroad from visiting their home country this Christmas but pls be cautious the MI5/GHQC and CIA has credible intelligence

Till January 31st. That is way before the election

Ddeliverer007:
The old notes would still be in circulation till next year. True or false?

I read through the travel advisory, there was nothing new that we do not already know.
It wasn't based on any actionable intelligence of something new that was discovered. It was merely a summary of the general security situation of the country. There were even references to 2016.
As elections approach, foreign governments issue these advisories to their citizens.
Some other nations also issue similar advisories against the US with regards to mass shootings, hate crimes, fatal police brutality of coloured people, etc.

This is going on and America and the woke west are still preoccupied with LGBTQ, non-binary, cancel culture, etc.
The west is now a shadow of itself. They have been overtaken by the disciplined east, led by China.

Upon all we've been saying, this one is still going to marry .
He has been told he must slave to cater for a woman and the subsequent kids she will bring forth. He was told it has to be so because his tradition and religion told him so.
If she "supports" him, he is very grateful and praises himself for finding a good wife.
His reward in all this is sex. He has been told it is something he must pay for and that it has a price.

Not just the militaries, alot of the other critical aspects that make a country a world power are currently decrepit in not just the United States but all over the "woke" western world. This is so because resources, attention and energies are being channeled into championing vain causes like "lgbtq" , "me-too", "body-positivity", "gender neutrality", "toxic feminism", misguided "animal rights", unrealistic "environmental rights", "non-binary" etc etc and other nonsensical semantics.
This has bogged down developments and led to the sacrificing of talents and resource persons on the alter of new found sensitivity "oh he must resign for daring to use the terms male and females"! "cancel him for daring to breathe when a female walked by"! Etc etc.
The effect of all these? A depleted society with no real substance.

The moment you resorted to full blown insults, I knew you've ran out of points to make and worse still, I have punctured your fable. Did I say Peter Obi will win the general election? I only said he will win his core support areas of southeast and southsouth. That was why in my first mention, I said a Peter Obi supporter will also be delusional (just like you currently are) if he thinks Peter Obi will win Katsina or any of the core northern state. Delusion is acknowledging your candidate will win in their core support base but the opponent won't win in theirs.

Indispensable85:
It truly didn't take me time to know I was conversing with a political neophyte with a near empty skull. It is the height of foolishness to compare Obi to Buhari in this regard. Buhari has been winning major sections of the core north consistently and so it's quite predictable what the outcome will be like with him on the ballot. But this is Peter Obi contesting to be the president of Nigeria for the very first time. So where are you drawing your predictions from? A foolish and baseless assumption from your tiny brain I guess? You think winning election is just marching on the streets? Nonsense!

To feed your fantasy, you deliberately try to say the candidate doesn't matter, that people automatically vote for the party they've always voted for.
CPC a new obscure party came overall second in 2011 in the presidential election and won majority votes in the north that had always voted either PDP or ANPP. What made that happen? The candidature of Buhari.
It is the same fervency the candidature of Peter Obi is sweeping the southeast and southsouth. If northerners in the largely uneducated north can tell the difference between party and candidate, then you're the biggest clown of the century if you think those in the south cannot.

Indispensable85:
You're the obvious joker here can't you see?
You're grabbing on straw by assuming what has no previous records in the political history of Nigeria. Continue with your fantasy and baseless assumption.

Okay, Ibos in the east will massively vote Atiku because historically since 1999, they've always voted PDP.
Doesn't this make you a joker?

Indispensable85:
The fantasy is on you really. I speak from already existing facts and records on ground since 1999. You're only hoping that it will change for the first time next year. So who's fantasizing?

Hahahahahahahaaa the fallacy that esan people are "born pdp". Esan people, just like ibo people supported pdp when it was just pdp and APC, but now, the dynamic is different. Using your logic of "born pdp", that means the ibos will vote Atiku na cos they've always voted pdp.
This is why I say you guys should stop fantasy analysis

Indispensable85:
Peter Obi can't win anywhere outside the Benin metropolis. The esan people are born pdp fanatics. Edo north is Apc stronghold. This is the fact on ground in Edo State. The suburbs of Benin will be shared between pdp and Apc.

Benin City metropolis of Oredo, Egor and Ikpoba-Okha constitute the largest voting bloc, This has even extended to Uhumwode. Is it Orhiomwon or the two Ovias that will vote APC or the full Edo central, the ishans who we in Edo state regard as the "ibos" of Edo state that will vote APC? These people are fanatically obedient. You guys keep looking at Edo north and Oshiomhole. Maybe you're mistaking Edo for Kogi because of the boundary at that axis. I'm from Owan, APC and the Oshiomhole factor isn't what it was in 2008. People have since moved on. Edo is fully for Obi

Indispensable85:
You must think Edo State is just Benin City metropolis.

My own Edo state? Tinubu to win Edo?? I'm amazed at the delusion on this forum. The south-south and south-east are for Obi.
It is just like an Obi supporter being delusional to say Obi will win Katsina.
You guys should be balanced in your political permutations na, how difficult is that?

donphilopus:
Atiku would not see second in Edo. Obi would should win Oredo, Ikpoba Okha, and Egor which all happen to be the urban areas of Benin. APC would retain their votes in these areas. The remaining four might be shared between Atiku and Tinubu.

In central, APC would retain most of their voters while Atiku and Obi would share the traditional PDP votes.

APC is clearly sweeping Edo North. Tinubu is likely to win Edo but Obi might just spring a surprise. But Atiku has no chance here at all.

She be God? No be prick still dey fvk her? Stfu with your hero worship

Fira09:
You are such a hoodwink dunce to have an idea that you can sleep with USA VP.

confidante, you can not in anyway to even have a handshake with her.

Liar! The killing of policemen, burning off stations, looting of malls, robbery, burning of BRT on the 19th of October, made the Govt declare curfew on the 20th. After dispersing those that decided to remain at the toll gate on the night of 20th, everywhere automatically became calm from 21st. All people were posting was lamentation on social media and jokes about wanting to travel abroad. Soldiers were on the streets, nobody protested anymore.
Stop trying to twist history. Its just 2years, everything is still fresh with video evidence

dyera:
The Chaos and destruction in Lagos occurred after the Lekki massacre incident. The perpetrators were venting their anger on Tinubu because they believed he was the one that ordered the massacre. That's why when they got to Oriental hotel and saw a banner saying that Tinubu is not the owner of the hotel, they turned back.

Everyone is posting their throwback pictures of the endsars protests. The social media pages of the victims of the massacre should have been a meccah of sorts by now - or were those massacred specifically selected cos they were not on social media?
I'm not a bandwagoner. There was no massacre on this night two years ago.
Make una rest for this end sars thing abeg. Its now stale. No matter how people try to reinvent it, it can't be like the original, that came about organically.
Politicians, wannabe woke airheads, japa crew, all want to milk the opportunity

Tribe, Religion, Party affiliation are the only thing Nigerians care about.
Okay, OP, you dey pity the suffering masses? Abeg, no waste your pity, dem no send weda dem dey hungry, or their children no fit go school or hospital and roads no good. All those things no concern dem. The main koko na where person come from? Na moslem abi na christian? na PDP abi na APC?
Ordinary this thread, argument don start weda the money big or e no big or weda e good make e waste or e no good

Nigerian politics is all about tribe and religion. Nigerians don't really care about anything else. And no, it is not the elite or politicians that are the problem. It is all of you.
If you are a very good person but say you are neither a muslim nor christian, automatically a Nigerian will just hate you. Even if you say you believe in God and believe all religions are good, they will still automatically impose on you that you're an aetheist and despise you and whatever values of honesty and hardwork that you have.
If on the other hand, there is a very bad and wicked person, whose actions like stealing, killing, etc are glaring for all to see. Provided he subscribes to one of those two religions, Nigerians will prefer him to you.