₦airaland Forum

Bizibi:
forget it they already have nassarawa.....they will lose kaduna completely because of El rufai,I don't understand ortom and benue,I don't know how benue will play out. Taraba has always been PDP. Bauchi is PDP,as far as I am concerned zamfara state is unpredictable.

You see nassarawa they have collected it.....

They don't have Nasarawa, APC didn't win Nasarawa in 2015, they won slightly in 2019 because no credible Christian was on the ballot.
Tinubu with his Muslim-Muslim ticket already lost Nasarawa.

Nasarawa, Benue, Plateau, Abuja and Taraba have similar voting patterns

BluntCrazeMan:
..





COMPILE A SIMILAR LIST FOR PETER-OBI...
Let us dissect it



.

for me, states that Tinubu may lose

1. Adamawa
2. Kano
3. Jigawa
4. Sokoto
5. Zamfara
6. Bauchi
7. Gombe
8. Taraba
9. Kaduna
10. Plateau
11. FCT
12. Benue
13. Nasarawa
14. Abia
15. Enugu
16. Imo
17. Anambra
18. Ebonyi
19. Rivers
20. Bayelsa
21. Delta
22. Crossrivers
23. Akwa ibom
24. Edo
25. Katsina


States that Peter Obi may lose

1. Oyo
2. Osun
3. Ekiti
4. Ogun
5. Kwara
6. Niger
7. Kogi
8. Borno
9. Yobe
10. Gombe
11. Kano
12. Sokoto
13. Kebbi
14. Jigawa
15. Zamfara
16. Bauchi
17. Adamawa
18. Katsina

I don't think that's achievable in southwest

If Lagos gets 3.5m votes, Obi should be able to get 1.5 outta it.

He can get another 1m votes from other states in SW to make it 2.5m that's will be good enough for him

yarimo:
hehehe someone that can't win his small Anambra state

lol OK 🤣

Bizibi:
apc will get nassarawa but I am certain that apc already have a loop hole to rig this election

APC will get Nasarawa only if Buhari is on the ballot. And it's not even cerisn for Buhari... Tinubu no be Buhari.

Moh247:
Abuja houses civil servants, Politicians, and white collar workers, Abuja also houses the largest number of Northern rich elite

Obi won't even come 3rd in Abuja

Most of the states in NC who voted PDP, they will vote Obi. They didn't vote PDP because PDP is good m, they voted anti-APC campaign and its even going to be worse for APC that Buhari is not on the ballot.

Tinubu cannot win the polling unit in Aso Rock, I am sure about that

Moh247:
Abuja houses civil servants, Politicians, and white collar workers, Abuja also houses the largest number of Northern rich elite

Obi won't even come 3rd in Abuja

So why is APC not winning the Abuja?

Why does Abuja have the same always voting pattern as Plateau, Taraba and nearly as Nasarawa and Benue?

Tell me, does it have anything to do with the fact that they don't just like APC? If they don't like APC now, which is the better option? LP or PDP?
You dey whine yourself

You and I know that APC will be 3rd there. You know

So na Urchins dey wail now. Just because you can't buy votes as much as you want

Moh247:
Abuja is a PDP major zone.... Any swing would see APC winning slightly

Lol, Abuja is an Anti-APC zone not necessarily PDP zone, the only option then was PDP.

Abuja votes religious sentiments because it's cosmopolitan. I can put my last card that Obi will win there

Moh247:



Kaduna?!

Abuja?!

See, Abuja always vote like Plateau and Taraba.

Go ND check history and then come back.

If Obi gets 70% from southern Kaduna, he will win Kaduna because other regions will be slip between Kwankwaso, Atiku and Tinubu

Ekwunife is a gonna.
I see Umeh winning landslide

OnyeAshuaUru:
A new Nigeria is POssible.
Btw, Obi's victory in Abuja will be huge. I have never seen an Igbo person who's not planning to vote, and judging by the fact that Igbos (followed by middle belt tribes) constitute the largest voting percentage in Abuja, I feel nothing but pity for politicians running on platforms other than LP this election season.

it's not just an Igbo thing, many minority groups in northcentral will vote obi

AcetylC:
No wonder the latest romance with SE. The man just realised he's going no where without the south, and banking on the North. For someone touted as one with great political insight, I'm surprised that he's in shock.

Did you study biochemistry?

leokid866:
Okay I'm not calling anybody an idiot with half a brain.....but you just have to be smart enough to decipher......

Okay, thanks for describing yourself

1. Taraba
This state is averse to islamic and Fulani dominance, it has various minority tribes that are Christians. This state always vote for Christians and its the reason why no Muslim has ever been a governor in this state.
Many pools suggest that their votes will most likely go to a Christian candidate. Peter Obi is very popular in the state for this reason.



2. Benue
Just like Taraba, Benue is opposed to islamic and Fulani agenda. It's even showining their political battles. They are not going to vote fulanis and Muslims because of the farmers/herders crisis. They are going to vote for a Christian who's going to help them tackle that issue as they have lost confidence in the APC structure and Won't accept another Fulani PDP candidate to rule.


3. Nasarawa
Ditto Benue and Taraba


4. Plateau
Ditto Taraba and Benue


5. Kaduna
The bulk of votes that Peter Obi will get will come from southern Kaduna, which has atleast 1/3 of the states voting capability. This region is antifulani and anti-islamic because of seevral decades of persecution and genocide meted on them. Northern Kaduna is dominated by hausa and will most like votes for Kwankwaso and Atiku.
The central part of Kaduna is mixed, this region will get mixed voting demography.

6. Abuja
Abuja voters are always vote more or like Plateau voters. Election figures usually show similarities. I don't know the reason for this, however the pattern is striking. Maybe it's because it's very metropolitan and consist of very enlightened voters who will always vote for fairness sake.


Above all, these six states usually have similar voting pattern. Sometimes, it may change slightly but above all, these are states where religion can help swing votes. There are struggles in these states to fight Islamic and Fulani dominance hence it affects their voting sentiments.
These states are more likely to vote any Christian candidate than any other candidate especially with the heightened level of Fulani herdsmen killings

leokid866:
ask your self at any point in his speech if he mentioned Buharis name? Just be jumping to conclusions like a woman with no sense.....

He doesn't have to mention Buhari's name for us to know who he's referring to. You just have to me smart enough to decipher

Let me Add to the List

Nassarawa
Kano
Jigawa
Gombe
Kebbi
Kaduna
Zamfara
Bauchi
NIGER
Lagos
Bayelsa
Edo

walefresh3:
Shut up he was given an opportunity to destroy poverty-stricken indigenous structures of anambranians.. but failed woefully... He could not uplift , upgrade and elivate the life of poor masses of anambra state....

Abeg make una tell us another lies... Dis lie don expire...

Ok, Tinubu will still lule

BreconHills:
Oh for sure I will.

But you do need to know that you should not believe everything you read. The idea that vote buying will be stopped by scarcity of new currency is simplistic. Most vote buying is done by cash transfer not in cash. Meanwhile the people that earn their money daily who might have voted their conscience will be the most vulnerable to political party offers.

In my opinion this currency exercise has zilch effect on vote buying. What you will see is NEFT cash transfers that vest money after polling station results have been released. We saw this in Osun and Ekiti.

If people do not defend their votes, their votes will not count.

This policy will go a long way to reduce vote buying, I need you to acknowledge that obvious fact.

BubblingB:
Correct, if traders will not upgrade and adapt then we use shopping malls. I just pity those in the rural areas.

do they have a choice?
They have to else they will die of hunger.
Stop acting like this Wil persist forever, it will all be gone after election slowly. Calm down

chinchum:
yes he will surely win. PDP own goal was to provide Obi.

Quote me in less than 5 weeks.

This election will be +-2% of

Apc- 12.5 million votes

PDP - 11 million votes

Lp - 6.5 million votes

He does not have to buy votes to win.
Feel free to call me out after election. APC votes may increase based on other factors as the election draws nearer.

I dont miss my projections. 2019 presidential election , i was 99% accurate

lol, OK then 😂

Gr8amechi:
Let's take APC as a case study, Shettima was the head of Zenith bank in the whole North East before he joined politics, so you think he doesn't have core loyalist across the states that will bring new notes for him?
Someone like Tinubu has over 1000 loyalist who are top share holders in banks and multinationals do you think these guys wouldn't have the new note?

Do you really think if Atiku or okowa or Obi need the new notes they will go to ATM and queue??

Obi has a history with Fidelity bank do you think if Obi wants to change 100 million old notes that the CEO of fidelity Bank wouldn't bring it to his house?.

Now that said, do you think those politicians who want to buy votes don't have access to dollars??

This country we just they play.
My conclusion in these whole saga

1. APC through Buhari is either trying to make sure Tinubu wins but make it look like Buhari block every means, hence Tinubu won because he had more followers
Or
2. Emefiele is just looking for ways for Nigerian to forget about his whole mismanagement of the CBN, he understands Nigerians usually have selective amnesia and also anyone who wins 2023 and attempts to remove him will be seen as he is being victimised.
Or
3. Buhari and Emefiele are looking for ways to cover up all the cabal deals in CBN so the next government wouldn't be able to trace a number of their deals.

In all these, Emefiele is not fighting for any masses, know this and know Peace, he is not fighting against any vote buying, know this and know peace.

The issues you raised do jot make sense if CBN, Buhari and Emefieli can eventually trace cash withdrawal, which obviously they can.

Minjim:
It's too late to be determined now.

Well, if he doesn't relax the restrictions, its sure not late. Tinubu will be affected

Minjim:
Does this particular CBN look determined ?

Well, Buhari looks determined. That's the most important thing

Bishop1monte:
Think of how your kids will buy stuffs in school when there’s no money in circulation

am I going to be giving my kids 20k daily?

Well, if that's the price I have to pay for 1month for my kids to get a better future, then it's worth it. This election must be credible.

I will buy stuffs for them from the mall, put it in their bags for them when they are going to school 😂
But you see this policy, it must stand

Anything that will make Tinubu lose is okay by me.

chinchum:
Before APC primaries when he spoke in Abeokuta many of you stated he is finished and will lose APC primaries. I repeat he is a master strategist, some people let his looks deceive them..

Show me anywhere in the world where politics is not played with Money. His political disciples are everywhere and typically are distinguished. The VP is one of them.

This election is done and dusted. Only death will stop him.

he bought votes, now Buhari is blocking that.

Can Tinubu win this election without buying votes?

BubblingB:
I don't see how an extension after election helps the cause. It is indirectly valid to use the old naira during election and wait for the extension to swap the old for new so it defeats the purpose. So, in my opinion, there will be no extension. Its just a small sacrifice to pay for the good of the country.

Yes, but it's valid to make the new naira notes circulate more and with time, everyone will get it. Stop waking and pay the price for a credible election

Hope you get it. There's nothing wrong is stifling thing now so this election can be credible

BreconHills:
So I hope you will accept the result of the election as the incontrovertible will of Nigerians.

Yes, I will.

Buhari has really tried his best to make this credible. I hope you will accept it as well

Parachoko:
You do not care about the hardship this will lead to at all

Do you even live in Nigeria?

Seriously I care, I care about Nigeria and that's why they need to pay the price for just 1 month, so it will save their lives for another 4years.
The benefit of this hugely outweighs the risk.

So if Nigerian ls are not smart enough to not sell their votes, the CBN will help them

Minjim:
Imagine some Obidient saying it was to tame Tinubu.

How laughable. So if Tinubu needs a million new notes he can't get it, can we?

The CBN governor is just trying to save face after a disastrous elongate tenure of poor performance.

In other countries is that how fast they change their currency?
Some give priod 5 to 10 years self
That CBN failure is giving a month deadline and fools are applauding him.

These are reasons government misbehave because they know there will always be some fools that will applaud them

Even if he can get cash, he cannot get enough to buy enough votes.

The more stringent the system, the more difficult for him to mobilize cash, especially if the sitting president is against him. Every cash withdrawal is strictly monitored by CBN, bank managers cannot mess with a determined CBN

Parachoko:
okay o.

This can not stop vote buying for me, Buhari won't have introduce this kind of policy if he is contesting. Scarcity of the Naira is already happening as we dey talk.

It will stop vote buying greatly. Where do you want to get the cash to bribe people on election day if there's a restriction.

Abi you wan dey do transfer to poor Pele for rural areas wey no get bank app? 😂

It will make the election very credible