₦airaland Forum

Onovo3:
.

I disagree with you on North Central, remember I said Obi will do well in North Central, but I don't see him winning a single state there. Not even Benue and Plateau as you put it. Obi's vote in those areas would be what I call Christian sympathy vote. The strong presence of APC/PDP there would be too strong for him to dismantle. This is real politics. As for Kwankwaso, the power brokers of the North would strike a deal with him. Remember how Tambuwal combined with Atiku to defeat Wike. The Northerners are very smart when it comes to politics, I have lived with them and I understand them to a reasonable extent !

I can put my last card that Obi will win plateau, Benue and Abuja and become comfortable second in Nasarawa.

It's ridiculous to think that party presence still matters a lot with what's we are seeing. You seem to be overeating Atiku

garfield1:
It is not funny.he will get it.he will come close to winning benue and cross river.ss will disappoint you guys, ss is not one tribe like se.they prefer party.by the time obi starts losing here,I dont want to hear cries of rigging and manipulation please.once he loses,take it peacefully.but I dont think you will handle tinubu's victory

😂😂😂

Onovo3:
I appreciate your understanding. The Northerners are very political sophisticated compared to the South. I don't see Kwankwanso competing with Atiku in the North, he might likely collapse his structure in to Atiku. Remember Atiku is yet to campaign in Kano and Jigawa state (which were both formerly Kano state). Atiku would win the north east but not likely to win Yobe and Bornu due to Shettima factor. Atiku is most likely to win the North West but Kwankwanso would be a factor there. The North Central is a swing between Atiku and Tinubu as Tinubu may win Kogi and Kwara, Obi definitely will get votes from North Central, however his vote would not be enough to defeat Atiku/Tinubu there. In the South West Tinubu would definitely win it, However Obi would give him a serious challenge in Lagos. Overall Atiku would come second in the West. In South South where I come from, it will be a battle between Atiku and Obi, but I think Atiku would defeat Obi there due to the endemic PDP structure there. Tinubu would get his 25% from states like Edo, Delta, and may be Cross River. In the South East Obi has the upper hand, however his lack of party chieftain (seasoned politicians) there would limit him. The governors/top politicians in South East are not with Obi and they would fight him tooth and nail to remain politically relevant post 2023. It will be a battle for political survival for the political gladiators in the south east. At worst Atiku comes second in the south east. Overall, in my honest opinion the odds favour Atiku as he is most likely to win the North and then penetrate the south reasonably.

I agree with almost everything except the aspect where you said Kwankwaso will collapse his structure and Tinubu has a huge stake in NC.
It's too late for Kwankwaso to collapse his structure and he's certainly going to steal votes from Atiku in thr north. The north is not politically sophisticated, that's a wrong assertion, the northern people are gullible and not sophisticated hence they can be easily used by their elites.


Tinubu is not a strong contender in NC because he's only popular in Niger, Kogi and kwara, these states have the least voting figures in NC. None of them have up to 2million PVCs in INEC register. Atiku will also be there to make life uncomfortable for him. The big boys of NC are plateau, Benue and Nasarawa. I am sure Obi will take Benue and plateau

garfield1:
Continue wallowing in hate and jealousy.better direct that hate to Igbo politicians.

Shebi you were making funny analysis of him getting 25% in Crossriver, Benue, Ebonyi, Imo and rivers abi.

We dey wait 😂

garfield1:
Continue wallowing in hate and jealousy.better direct that hate to Igbo politicians.

😂😂😂
Why are you making it tribal?

We will all be here to stare at you when Tinubu loses. It's bound to happen. When he lose, if we hear pim, na kuje prison straight

garfield1:
That is hypocritical and fake.you cannot hate tinubu and like atiku.atiku as vp did a lot of damage.atiku is godfather,obi is a godfather too.tinubu does not pretend,he is real but others pretend snd are more evil and deadly.
Your attacks on tinubu won't do anything.you are from se who won't vote him so you are wasting your time.

everyone has their interest, you have yours. My interest is for Tinubu to lose anyways.

If Obi wins, then I will be most happy. Thanks I don't have time to address your godfather lies

lapo:
IF YOU WERE TINUBU, WOULD YOU KNOWINGLY WALK INTO A PROVEN TOXIC ENVIRONMENT LIKE THE ARISE TV TOWN HALL MEETING?

So why can't he organize a townhall meeting in his own TVC and then invite other candidates.

Is TVC also toxic to him?

lapo:
He built Lagos through continuity and consistent execution of the blueprint for development. No other state has been this lucky.

Okay, There was no Lagos before 1999?
Or Lagos was the least developed in Nigeria in 1998?

garfield1:
If you focus too much on tinubu,obi will lose

doesn't work that way, if we expose Tinubu more, we will reduce his chances of winning.

I don't like godfathers and people with self-entitilement, I can still tolerate Atiku but that guy called Tinubu. No

Onovo3:
That is political naivety ! 1979 election would repeat itself ! Don't underrate Atiku as well as Tinubu !

If you ask me, I cannot underrate Atiku but you see Tinubu? He's going no where. All odds are against him.

garfield1:
It seems your problem is tinubu losing than obi winning

Exactly, I have been working against this for 8years now, because I saw this coming. And I know that many people will be foolish enough to fall for it
I am so happy that all the odds, including electoral reforms, CBN naira reform, voter's sentiment and otherwise are mostly against him.

I grew up seeing how Tinubu governed Lagos like a tyrant and how he's still holding on to it by proxy. I am a very popular person on Twitter but I won't disclose my identity but one thing is sure, Tinubu ma lule.

E sure die and there's nothing wrong in having Obi taking the mantle, it's going to be a win-win for everyone

GRVLagos:
A massive and well placed concern on here is the issues of "agberos" in Lagos, who have state protection and cover, under my governorship we are going to change this, we are going to create a 2 year window for these mostly young men to be retrained and given useful life skills and provide them with a proper path that will be to the benefit to us all in society, through artisanship, vocations, trade, communal policing and more, many of these young men have not been giving viable and safe alternatives to live and sustain themselves, the use of them as an extra arm of the government to intimidate and extract resources from the general public has to end and will end under my governship

Boss, I have my voter's card.
I am going to be using it for you because I have trust in the LP structure.
Thanks for The answer

gozmok1:
my brother we are not atall

I think you are just being paranoid

gozmok1:
Other Regions are collecting their PVCs and our people are on Social Media discussing Akwa-Okuko and his Ram.

Imagine the energy we waste on things that does not matter and will never change our standard of living



Igbos go and collect your pvc

How did you arrive at this conclusion that we are not collecting PVCs? I am curious

On what's grounds do you jagabanist claim that Tinubu built Lagos?

GRVLagos:
I apologize and thank you all for your patience, I will be taking time to answer questions today, I had townhalls and interviews and engaging with voters meeting , I will have alot of questions answered today

sir, We want to get Peter Obi to Aso Rock, if that happens, just know that the euphoria will rub off on you.

It's key that Peter Obi wins so people will transfer that excitement to you in March. I'm telling fact here.
The chance of you winning increases astronomically if Peter Obi wins

Why's this not in Frontpage yet?

Nlfpmod Mynd44 and Seun

karnap:
Just prayed it shouldn't happened!!
You can't stop it,only God can.

So God is the one coming to help you wait so your vote can count?

Waterysperm:
Another Anap pool will soon be out by the end of the Month. You guys will be shocked. We also carried out some researches as well especially in the rural remote areas of the Country. That is why I am ready to stake with anybody that wants on these 3 things which are , firstly Atiku won't get 25% in any Southeast state. Secondly, Obi will win Taraba and not Atiku. Thirdly, Obi will defeat Atiku in the 3 regions of the South and North Central. Atiku will only win him in Northwest and his region Northeast. I didn't mention Tinubu because he will come a distant third and no longer in the race. He will only win his Southwest region with a slight margin closely followed by Obi. You guys will understand soonest. So I am ready to stake 100k with anyone based on the 3 things I listed.

They don't know how prepared we are.

They don't. Abeg, no loud am.

We need Urchins to be happy for the last 1 month of their lives before natural selection takes them

onatisi:
the bolded will be a miracle but nothing is impossible in this world . this election will be very interesting

it's achieveable, Peter Obi will get the most amount of votes in this election. Take it to the bank.

If he can get 25% in all 17 states in South, he will win. Plateau, Abuja, Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, Taraba, And Adamawa will dash him 25% on a platter to make it 24. That's if he doesn't even get Kogi.

onatisi:
you don't seem to get the winning logic of elections. please let me explain.

you need to have the highest number of votes cast to win . but in order for the national spread out of the highest number of votes, you need to have 25% in 24 states.
so if you have 25% in even all 36 states but yet do not have the highest number of votes , the person may likely lose to someone who has the highest number and 25% in 24 states.
i hope I am right, if i am wrong please correct me .
this is the reason why some key states with high voters turnout are usually very very important . eg kano and rivers state also jigawa

Atiku will lose so much votes to Tinubu and Kwankwaso in the north that it will not be enough to nullify the bloc votes Obi will secure from SE and SS.

Obi will meet 25% coverage and still get the highest votes. Trust me.

If Obi is winning SS by 60% and SE by 70%, Atiku needs to win NW by 40% and NE by 65% to be able to get the same amount of votes as Obi.

Then the NC will now become the battle ground. Atiku is weak in the largest NC voting blocs of Plateau and benue, Obi will win there comfortably by virtue of religion.

Taraba in NE will be very close between both. The like of Kogi, Niger and kwara do not have huge voters, and Tinubu is also there to help deplete Atiku's votes. Obi will win Abuja.

Obi will end up having the highest amount of votes combined if you add his performance in SW where he will be seocnd.

onatisi:
you don't seem to get the winning logic of elections. please let me explain.

you need to have the highest number of votes cast to win . but in order for the national spread out of the highest number of votes, you need to have 25% in 24 states.
so if you have 25% in even all 36 states but yet do not have the highest number of votes , the person may likely lose to someone who has the highest number and 25% in 24 states.
i hope I am right, if i am wrong please correct me .
this is the reason why some key states with high voters turnout are usually very very important . eg kano and rivers state also jigawa

nope, you are wrong. you are the person who do not get it.

Obi will get the highest number of votes as long as Tinubu and Kwankwaso are in the race to battle Atiku in the north for votes. Atiku may win but they will steal many votes from him.
It's in the best interest of Obi that Tinubu and Kwankwaso remain in this race.

Again, Obi doesn't need kano, Katsina, sokoto, Kebbi, Jigawa, Niger, Zamfara, Bauchi l, yobe, Borno, gombe to get the constitutional 25% in 24 states.
The analysis and our permutations already shows us that Obi has a chance to get 25% of votes in Taraba, Adamawa, Plateau, Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Abuja and Kogi, these are 8 northern states with huge Christian population that even this analysis Obi got 25% from there exepct Kogi.


Now, what Obi needs to do is to winall states in SS and SE and get at least 25% from all SW states, this is 17 states plus 8 northern states, it's 25.

By doing this, Obi already has the constitutional requirements of 25% in 24 states and also with kwankwaso and Tinubu in the race, Atiku will never be able to get enough from NW and NE to reverse the bloc votes Obi will get from SS and SE.

Hope I am communicating?

Obi has a chance, if he doesn't, we won't still be pushing him. We know what we are doing

Tinubu and Kwankwaso are there to make sure that Atiku doesn't get enough votes in NW and NE. They are working for Obi

onatisi:
boss don't raise ur hopes too high, look beyond the south, there is no way the local northerner on the streets of katsina ,sokoto,kano and co will leave kwankwanso and atiku then vote for peter obi , but if you believe it then let's wait and see.
but i know that the only two words on their mouths now is bamaiyi and kwankwansiya

Nope, we don't need the extreme north to win. You are not getting it.
We only need to win or get at least 25% in non-Muslim dominated states like Benue, Abuja, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kaduna , Taraba and Adamawa, kogi and then secure 25% in all sohthern state then obi will win. The northern Christians in these states I listed will give the votes. This means a total of 25 states, one more than the 25% in 24 state constitutional requirement.

We are not interested so much in Northwest state where Kwankwaso is already working by proxy for Obi to deplete Atiku and Tinubu votes.

We are not hoping to win Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, sokoto Borno and the likes, we don't even think we can get 25% there. We know they cannot vote Obi, we only need at most 10% there

It's not easy but it's doable, there is a viable pathway to victory without the Northwest, Borno, Yobe and the likes

Aufbauh:
Honestly some of you guys are not fit for the politics section going by your lack of basic political knowledge.

Yobe state has ever be an anti-pdp state right from 1999. A state occupied by predominantly Kanuris who have their own Shetima as a VP candidate to Tinubu, and with almost all their main political stakeholders in APC is not expected to vote for the APC according to your low analytic reasoning?

Even Atiku in his wildest dreams won't accept the offer of winning Yobe state. APC will have nothing less than 80% votes in Yobe state.

25 February is close so there's no need to educate you much.

lol, OK. Wait until February 😂
Keep consoling yourself for just 1 month

onatisi:
keankwanso is not even the problem of tinubu in the southwest, the major problem and obstacle is peter obi. boss, obi get a massive massive following in the southwest most especially among the Christians and youth. he will definitely not win and he knows that but he has already taken a large chunk of votes, which would normally have gone to tinubu if it is only Atiku vs tinubu. not to now talk of the east and south-south
there is a very good reason Atiku and PDP have decided not to beg wike or anyone in the south, obi has already damaged that area for APC. obi can never win in the north, he can't get the number of votes in the north like he would get in the south, but he has really tried

bro, Obi is winning this election. He has better chance than Tinubu.
I am looking at this data, I don't see why we should allow Atiku be getting 25%in Imo, Abia and Anambra when he cannot get it in crossrivers and Rivers state. We will work on that.

Atiku has a slight lead in TARABA, Obi is closely seocnd, we will work on that, Obi is also closlely second in Kaduna to Tinubu, we will work on that.

Don't underestimate us dude. Don't be surprised if Obi gets 25% Ondo, Osun and Kogi.

See. We have a working strategy that we are yet to unleash. PDP and APC will be shocked

Victorclean1:
Free and fair, PO wins

Atiku is strong, very strong.
He have a lot of work to do in the north, we also need to encourage kwankwaso to do well there.
Tinubu is not my problem, Atiku is. Tinubu will be beaten like a baby, I don't see how he can win.

Tinubu cannot even conviniently win southwest, Imagine the amount of votes Atiku and Kwankwaso will steal from him there.

fredoooooo:
Clowns

February no far again, e dey play.

APC think say we dey follow them play 😂

Just one month then you will know how serious we obedients are.

As Atiku dey give una from north, we go dey tidy una here for south. Una dey whine us?

kay1one:
So let's work with your reasoning: in 2019, the contest in Yobe was predominantly between Buhari and Atiku. Now that Buhari is not on the ballot, who will they vote for? Tinubu Abi? 😂🤣🤣

I don't know why you are arguing with these guys, we have said it for the umpteenth time that this election is between Atiku who's the most popular in the north and Obi who's the most popular in the south.

Tinubu will be beaten to Stupor. Atiku will deal with him in the North, we will finish the job here in the south.

He will be 3rd, we will all be here to laugh at Urchins

PlayerMeji:
Biafra or Death soon loading....!

They are giving you useful insights, but you cant stop crying.

We will wait for you in February when we will finish you finally 😊😊

I am here to watch Urchins lament. Ouch, I came late, they are already here.

😂😂😂

leokid866:
no I was describing your mother, but since she passed her lackings unto you I'm not surprised you can't reason well......😁

Okay, I respect your mom. She's a good woman m, I know she raised you well and must have told you that insulting other people's parents is bad.
I am sure it's you that didn't listen to that good woman