₦airaland Forum

Sincerely, I am of the opinion that Tinubu doesn’t have what it takes to defeat ATiku and Peter Obi in this election and I am going to back my claims with evidence driven by data. I am not going to be emotional here.

My conclusion is driven by 5 premises and evidence:

1. Tinubu does not have the collective endorsement of Yoruba people. He cannot get black votes in southwest

Many Yorubas see beyond tribalism and will not vote Tinubu on the basis of character and competence. I don’t want you to take my words for it, now look at the surveys carried out By nextier in rural areas of Ogun and Oyo state. Tinubu gathered a collective 37% votes, Peter Obi was close with 24% votes while 19% are still undecided.
People may make claims that these polls are unreliable to still make their emotions relevant, however this shows with evidence that Tinubu doesn’t enjoy total endorsements in the southwest. It’s proves it more because the poll was held in communities that are most likely almost occupied by Yoruba people.

For us who live in Lagos, we see this pattern within Yorubas. I have a lot of Yoruba friends who are anti-Tinubu and see a lot of them here in Lagos. This gives credence to those poll figures

2. BVAS and electronic transmission of results

BVAS has made it almost very impossible to pad ballot figures and doesn’t give politicians ample time on how to Pad it. If this wasn’t the case, APC would have deployed massive rigging structure for Tinubu.
Whatever rigging plan they might have will not be the traditional one of overthumbprinting on incident forms and generating miracle figures in their strongholds.

It will be hard to get miracle figures for Tinubu to win.

3. Tinubu cannot defeat Peter Obi and Atiku in northcentral

The nextier poll proves this. The margin at which Peter obi and Atiku gave Tinubu is huge.
The poll gave clear picture of what’s going to happen in nasarawa and Benue. Although, we cannot conclude yet since no one has the figure of what’s going to happen in kwara and Kogi.

4. Tinubu cannot beat Obi in southsouth and southeast: we do not need much explanations here.


5. ATiku will defeat Tinubu in core Hausa/fulani speaking climes.

Again, the NOI and nexter polls proves that ATiku always get 100% more votes than Tinubu in northwest and northeast.
My personal research on Facebook also proves this. Don’t take my word for it.
There’s was poll conducted on VOA hausa, ATiku defeated Tinubu badly.
Following the trend in Hausa communities on social media suggests that ATiku is more popular than Tinubu and will easily beat him in core north.
See evidence below in the pictures, you can take your time and verify whatever I claim here

lhordspy:
This is uncalled for. You created a thread and you asked for opinion, you asked for engagement. Somebody gave his constructively or otherwise. He found your piece worthy of reply. Just look at your response.

Yet, people like you criticised Aisha Buhari for going after those who throw jab at her. Yet same you cant even take an opinion contrary to yours in a good faith.

You are disgusting and you should be ashame of yourself.

but I acknowledged his comments

I didn’t just wanted to get into his insult games

ItsTutsi:
Lol read what I wrote again. You are too emotional, your either a small boy new to politics or from SE known for their emotional tendencies

Lol

Whether Tinubu comes 3rd, 4th, 5th etc in Edo State or SS is inconsequential, as long as he gets 25% in 3 states, then it's very bad for PO.. PO most win SS by 70% or more to stand any chance(which is impossible as he has Tinubu and Atiku to contend with).. anything short of this will be catastrophic for him because this are the only region he can get block votes

who will vote for Tinubu in Edo?

Keep dreaming

Lagos is a cosmopolitan state, I can't tell by the merging he will win.. however, outside Lagos, Tinubu is certain to win by 70% and sweep all the states comfortably

studies by renowned organizations proves that Tinubu gets between 35 - 50% popular in southwesr surveys, this is a storage pointer to the fact that he’s not accepted all rounder. We cannot trust your own figures against those who actually did the study. Sorry[/quote]Yoruba hating Tinubu is just the figment of ur imagination! Not every Yoruba is supporting Tinubu just like not every Ibo is supporting Obi.. But if u think they weill abandon their son, then I believe ur highly delusional and ignorant[/quote]So how come Tinubu fails to justify this popularity in surveys and research. Pleas don’t say the surveys are wrong.

Tinubu will be a winner and runner up in 4 regions(SW,NC,NW,NE), what is the way for PO

according to studies, Tinubu can only win SW
Will be distant second with about half the votes of atiku in NW and NE

And 3rd in NC.

These studies are very renowned and reliable and doesn’t respect your emotions or sentiments.

They are more realistic now that we havE BVAS.

Are you not the person rather being emotional now?

fuckJones:
it's a season of verification, you can go and verify

You can only verify evidence

No evidence here to verify

fuckJones:
but the one against tinubu have prove right?

Theres evidence that Tinubu was involved in the drug scandal in Chicago.

There is evidence that Tinubu cannot attend any campaign without goofing

We all know this

ItsTutsi:
You can keep lying to console, comfort, reassure and soothe yourself.. but it won't change the reality on ground!

point of corrections

1- the SS is not lockdown for PO, you can keep repeating this lie, but we won't buy it.. Tinubu is certain to get 25% in Edo, CR, Delta and Bayelsa.. the highest PO can pull overall in SS is 50%(which is very bad for a region u claim lockdown).. he can't get block votes like how u portray it

2- your not a northerner, so I don't expect u to know or believe this, but kwankwasso won't scatter or compete in votes.. his best outing will only be restricted in Kano and Jigawa state

3- Tinubu will get block votes from SW, while finishing PO in the north

In reality, Tinubu will be distance 3rd in Edo behind ATiku.

Tinubu cannot get 55% Lagos votes. Not to talk of block votes in SW.

The reality on ground is that Tinubu in highly rejected in southsouth, even ATiku is more preferred than him.

Tinubu is also highly rejected within Yoruba circle, although majority of Yorubas will still vote for him but he’s not even 55% accepted.

Another reality is that, no one will rig any election for Tinubu with the emergence of BVAS

peepydelano:
I only played you by your game, you brought tribe into it and I grabbed you by your balls

And you lie too,
Show me where I mentioned any tribe?

Show me, you seen shameless lying tribalist.

You cannot disprove what doesn’t have proof.

The allegation you highlighted doesn’t have proof.
You need to present evidence first that you are right before we now counter it hence your thread is useless and won’t change anything

MytyD:
Why don't u guys come outside in the open and embrace ur atheism

Rather than staying behind a screen�

Does Flying Spaghetti Monster exist like every other gods?

Answer the question

peepydelano:
Only an Igbo man can be this boastful in another man’s land which is why they are always caught unawares. I trust Jagaban to do the needful

Its not an Igbo affair, it’s a Nigerian afffair.

I won’t follow you to your tribal cesspit. You should be ashamed that you are incapable of reasoning beyond petty tribal sentiment.

We have gone past your useless tribal games that never benefit anyone one in the long run.

Obi is your next president

peepydelano:
Nyamuri and their stubborn head sha. Obi behaved like a typical Igbo man, greedy and impatient. If he was wise, he would stuck with Atiku and Atiku will gladly handover power to him, that’s the only way his ambition would have been fulfilled but greed, arrogance, intolerance and disloyalty which are typical attitudes of you Nyamuris led him astray. Lol

Obi will handover power to ATiku.
ATiku should wait
It’s now and now, Peter will deliver everyone even you a tribal bigot

peepydelano:
Wishful thinking, e go shock you. You igbos should jejely be doing your business and thriving in it. Politics and power isn’t for you guys. Igbos are never good with politics and power

It is the reality, you are the myopic person trying all his best to We this from a tribal lens.

Tinubu will lose Lagos to obi. Mark my words

peepydelano:
Then let each zone support their own and let’s see who takes the crown

Its not a regional thing, Obi will beat Tinubu in Lagos because Obi is more competent

peepydelano:
Try to be realistic and see beyond tribal politics, politics is a game of numbers and if we are to go by tribal politics then we’ll know who will suffer at the bottom line. You are the tribalistic one here

i am realistic, Obi can win.
You are the person making this a tribal war, have I mentioned any tribe?

Stop being a bigot, we no longer buy you “obi cannot win” nonsense

peepydelano:
Nothing to pick from this naive and inexperienced write-up. Social media politics is nothing but just an illusion, soon reality will dawn on you igbos

Lol, so you are just a petty tribalist.

Obi will win, we have gone past that era of “obi cannot win” rhetorics

peepydelano:
Its crystal clear Obi can’t win, be truthful to yourself. I don’t even know how most of you live your reality, you think my people (northerners) will go out under the sun to start voting Obi? Bro no one knows Obi here and the few that have managed to hear about him believe he’s just playing around. The contest is strictly between Atiku and Tinubu which brings us back to my first statement on the need for the igbos to be wise in their decision.

Its crystal clear ATiku and Tinubu will be second and 3rd respectively.

Eniitankorede:
Stop talking rubbish. Obi that visited Kano in the cover of darkness and could not come out in the open to be appreciated by anybody. And the campaign funds of a change party has been looted by thieves who are deceiving themselves as change agents. Obi will soon pack up and running away. Mark my words.

ok, your opinion is noted,
I will wait for sane people to comment now

See, Obi has scarce resources for his campaign. He’s not running a mega party that will avail him looted funds. He needs to use the available resources judiciously.

Northwest and northeast are going to be his last priorities for obvious reasons;

1. These regions won’t give block votes in 2023, APC, Atiku and kwankwanso are already on ground to scatter the votes and make them statistically not very consequential for anyone who becomes 2nd and 3rd here.

2. The only regions that will most likely give block votes are southeast and southsouth. These regions are a winner takes all regions.

3. Anyone who gets the block votes in southeast and southsouth will most likely get the chance to make a rerun with whoever win NE and NW slimly.

4. Obi cannot invest scarce resource where it will yield little results, he can employ other strategies in NW and NE like door to door campaign that will save more money. NW and NE will yield inconsequential results for him. So instead of wasting money, why not focus on your strength first then you can later do NE and NW, anything you get there is going to be a plus.

peepydelano:
It’s best they take the wisest decision and not allow sentiment becloud their judgement and decision

Wisesr decisions that will make Nigerians suffer. You are selfish

jumper524:
wailing.. I'm bothered about his chances in even his stronghold. Jon zing.

See, Obi has scarce resources for his campaign. He’s not running a mega party who will avail him looted funds. He needs to use the available resources judiciously.

Northwest and northeast are going to be his last priorities for obvious reasons;

1. These regions won’t give block votes in 2023, APC, PDP and kwankwanso are already on ground to scatter the votes and make them statistically not very consequential.

2. The only region that will most likely give block votes are southeast and southsouth. These regions are a winner takes all regions.

3. Anyone who gets the block votes in southeast and southsouth will most likely get the chance to be a rerun with whoever win NE and NW

4. Obi cannot invest scarce resource where will yield little results, he can employ other strategies in NW and NE like door to door campaign that will save more money. NW and NE will yield inconsequential results for him. So instead of wasting money, why not focus on your strength and get yourself into the rerun.

jumper524:
I like obi a lot. dude loves his comfort zone too much. he's given up on votes up north. no campaign only banking on Christian votes up north. .
2023 would open his eye to religious disperancies up north. he thinks an average zaria Christian or borno Christian gives a damp about religious hogwash going on in the media. go to maiduguri and see Muslims and Christians living peacefully, they all have one common enemy, bokoharam and other terror group but the media and Igbo are forcing a religious narrative on our neck. let me tell you places in the north with high religious disperancies. Southern kaduna and adamawa. if only those 2 region is where obi is banking on to get 25% of votes, congratulations to him.. my own is that he should do well in SS and SE so atiu would stand no chance cos it's clear Asiwaju has taken over the north.

stop wailing, election is still in February.

There’s enough time to go the north, cry baby

Na Mumu Dey go settle fight for outside when he never seal his own house

peepydelano:
I hope the Igbos Are wise enough not to waste their votes, Obi can’t win. They should decide between Atiku and Tinubu

Is it your vote?

duro4chang:
You can say what you like. You can use foul language because it's your trademark but I can confidently say that Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the next president of Nigeria.He is the best man for the job. May his tenure usher in peace progress and prosperity. May God bless him with the wisdom to lead the country to our promised land.

How will Tinubu win?
How?

Can’t you see that he cannot win?

MytyD:
Stop chatting me
Last warning

What would you do if he doesn’t but stop?
You will tell you non-existent god to kill him?

Jostoman:
We have been telling them since but they keep calling us all sorts of names

Leave them, they are deluded.
I will laugh so hard when Tinubu is totally disgraced.

How can someone think that a Tinubu can get 25% in Abia and Rivers?

When you see their predictions, you begin to ask whether they are still in touch with reality or they now suffer from neurological challenges just like their principal.
These urchin think that their druggie is sellable, in their mind they think many people has stupid enough to buy him.

Some of their funny predictions are below:

1. Tinubu will get 25% in Delta, Abia, IMO, Rivers, crossriver, Bayelsa and Ebonyi.

2. Tinubu will win in Edo, Benue and Bayelsa

3. Tinubu will win ATiku in northwest and northeast.


All these unrealistic predictions can only be influenced by narcotics. You urchins don’t know what going to hit you soon.

Tinubu cannot get 25% in any state in southeast and southsouth.

Tinubu cannot defeat ATiku in northwest and northeast. If you like keep dreaming

I don’t know who’s giving you guys this false hope

MytyD:
All other gods exist for ur information idiot
But there's only one true God
And that's Yahweh elshadai
Idiot

Really, the Flying Spaghetti Monster and the invisible pink unicorn also exist?

Michael547:
Where did unicellular organisms come from?

now let’s question you a bit about creation.
Are you in?

Who knows, maybe you can make me see the sense in it.

What version of creation story do you personally believe?

ReacherSaidNoth:
Mr. Workch your patience is admirable but you should know now that those who put faith above reality cannot be reasoned with.

I was kinda enjoying how he doesn’t understand anything or how is is deliberately not wanting to accept facts

1. Atiku will win Northwest, kwankwanso will be second, Tinubu will be 3rd. Peter obi will perform very woefully here.


2. ATiku will win northeast, Tinubu will be second, kwankwanso will be 3rd.

3. Atiku or Obi will win north central

4. Peter obi will win southeast, ATiku will be second, Tinubu will perform woefully here.

5. Tinubu will win southwest, with Obi closely in second position

6. Obi will win southsouth, ATiku will be second.


There will be a rerun between Atiku and Obi. Southwest will vote For ATiku, ATiku will win the election.

Michael547:
Alright let's call it a day so we can still respect each other. Good night.

Well, Sleep well great Ape species