Many of us agree that Buhari would command votes in the north if he runs as president. Ok, but what if he were not to run, but throw his weight behind a candidate more acceptable to the south? You know, the same way Ojukwu helped Peter Obi win a second term by throwing his weight behind him.

I personally don't want Buhari to run. I belong to the class of Nigerians that believe that he cannot win a presidential election ever again, his good intentions notwithstanding.

I would rather see Buhari take up the role as an elder statesman (not godfather oh!!!) and throw his full weight behind a Fashola/Ribadu ticket.

Truth is, Buhari can NEVER win a presidential election in modern Nigeria. The perception many Nigerians (sentimental southern Christians, specifically) is simply too negative.

Charles Chukwuma Soludo is excellent but needs to take Anambra State come 2014 after Obi first.

He will make a fine President someday but not 2015.

HNosegbe: Many of us agree that Buhari would command votes in the north if he runs as president. Ok, but what if he were not to run, but throw his weight behind a candidate more acceptable to the south? You know, the same way Ojukwu helped Peter Obi win a second term by throwing his weight behind him.

I personally don't want Buhari to run. I belong to the class of Nigerians that believe that he cannot win a presidential election ever again, his good intentions notwithstanding.

I would rather see Buhari take up the role as an elder statesman (not godfather oh!!!) and throw his full weight behind a Fashola/Ribadu ticket.

Truth is, Buhari can NEVER win a presidential election in modern Nigeria. The perception many Nigerians (sentimental southern Christians, specifically) is simply too negative.

Buhari throwing his weight behind a candidate will definitely increase the person's followership but it will not be enough. For some people it's either Buhari or nothing.

That Fashola/Ribadu ticket just looks wrong.

Gbawe:

My brother, in my opinion, you are right except for the statement that Ribadu is the most electable. In the South yes but I believe the politicians would be looking at issues from a perspective of nationwide efficacy. I think many southerners make the mistake of seeing Ribadu's candidacy with southern preponderance. Buhari enjoys cult-like popularity in the North. The sort that means his name will be the only one Northerners will see if written on a paper with the names of Ribadu, EL Rufai and Sanusi.

The other names might as well be written in indelible ink for most ordinary Northerners who ultimately matter above the educated, well-fed and exposed class. The opinion may be that it is not worth sacrificing Buhari's sure banker vote-winning status in the North in an effort to tackle his unpopularity in the South when that problem could be addressed with a charismatic and liked Southern performer like Fashola or Okorocha.

The consideration, for political tacticians, would be the dilemma of gambling on trying to make Ribadu or any other 'young gun' popular enough in the North to sweep the region as Buhari can. Let us bear in mind that the analysts who are stakeholders will not be as emotional as we are here. They will pragmatically accept what the average Nigerian voter is and try to accommodate his rigidity and dedication to voting according to considerations that should not and does not matter elsewhere.

If I have learnt anything from 2011, as a passionate Ribadu supporter who wanted change anchored around a young technocrat, it is to accept that the ordinary Nigerian, as unpalatable as it is to take in, is a totally sentimental individual. Tacticians must account for that and not go gambling with 'sophisticated' choices the polity simply lacks the requisite sophistication to appreciate and support dogmatically.

Let us face the fact. For what the world is today, Ribadu was probably the best choice for the thinking man in 2011. In most Nations, where voters are sophisticated enough to eschew sentiment and biases, Ribadu would most likely have won comfortably given a combination of things that matters to politically sophisticated folks worldwide such as youth, vigour, efficacy in public office, patriotism, innate bravery, dedication to duty and to the people, undoubted record of inspired solutions provisions, etc.

Yet how well did Ribadu do against GEJ and Buhari? My brother, I thank God for my exposure, education and good fortune but I am no longer under any illusions as per what the average Nigerian is. My people? Yes they are and I would never deny them. Yet do I wish they could be different? Hell yeah !!! Until they are, I must account for their 'peculiarity' and work with their idiosyncrasies. That will be the conclusion of APC tacticians also.

I see your point. Certainly, if Buhari runs as president, he absolutely must have a christian VP. My choice is Ezekwesili. I can't think of any other credible christian politician. Okonjo-Iweala would have been nice, but I don't see her resigning from GEJ's administration to run against PDP. Fashola can be made a minister of a strategically important ministry

Jarus: Gbawe,

Could you put your last two posts together as an article and let's get published in newspapers. Too scientific to be limited to Nairaland.

Inbox me at jarusnairaland@yahoo.com

Classic case of conjuring propaganda from Nairaland to the Nigerian public. And who is in a better position to do this than our own Gbawe.

By the way, where is Ngige in all of this? All of a sudden, folks are preferring Okorocha over Ngige?

This is shocking to me.

How are you doing by the way?

Nuzo':


Classic case of conjuring propaganda from Nairaland to the Nigerian public. And who is in a better position to do this than our own Gbawe.

By the way, where is Ngige in all of this? All of a sudden, folks are preferring Okorocha over Ngige?

This is shocking to me.

How are you doing by the way?

I almost forgot that Ngige is an ACN member. It's just that he doesn't seem desperate. He may just get it ahead of Fashola and Okorocha.

Afam4eva:
No doubt, Soludo is the kind of president we should have but Nigeria has not gottent to that level where technocrats mount that exalted seat in Aso rock. The best he can get for now is being someone's VP. Politicians will most likely emerge for a long time to come and Soludo is not a politician.

Soludo is the wrong sort of technocrat because he is a capitalist with absolutely no moral fortitude or uprightness. He will create a billionaire class faster than you can say Coca-Cola. It is very important to fully appreciate the problem before one seeks solution. Nigeria, for now, simply needs a very brave, social-leaning and pro-people leader with unshakeable political will. The solutions to Nigeria's problem does not need Rocket science analysis as folks like you think. More important is uprightness, the readiness to eschew greed and materialism plus the bravery to do what is in the best interest of Nigeria regardless of whose Ox will be gored. Let us for once, and for the sake of our nation, given how badly we have fallen, stop this "my local champion" way of viewing things.

Soludo will be a terrible choice because, even for all his innate brilliance, his highly materialistic and grotesquely capitalist leaning means he is the sort, via chasing aggressive weath creation, who will cause far-reaching problems like the credit crunch where a few become hideously rich and majority are condemned to misery. Soludo, for example, will not handle the fuels subsidy scam different to the timid and compromised GEJ who preferred heaping misery on Nigerians than go after the crook who deserved life sentences for their treasonous scams.

Nigeria needs someone who will come in and predicate progress on the need to use our wealth to make all Nigerians the best they can be. When that is done, everything will take care of itself. It is brave, pro-talakawa leaders ,who have never showed interest in materialism, we should be looking for. It is only a leader like that who will shun the status quo that has seen Nigeria fail because the majority of our wealth remains concentrated in the hands of a few.

let me ask you a question. Why do you think GEJ cannot accede to Ribadu's suggestion we stop selling our oil through traders months after he got the instruction? Because doing that will instantly cut off the food of 'awon boys' !!! Can you tell me Soludo will act any different to GEJ? Yet we know Buhari certainly will and likely Ribadu also. Unshakeable political will and a commitment to doing what is best for Nigeria are the qualities most needed in the next Nigerian politician not economic or financial brilliance.

Nuzo':


Classic case of conjuring propaganda from Nairaland to the Nigerian public. And who is in a better position to do this than our own Gbawe.

By the way, where is Ngige in all of this? All of a sudden, folks are preferring Okorocha over Ngige?

This is shocking to me.

How are you doing by the way?

Who cares about you and what you think? Call it propaganda or what you will. I am simply happy I am not afflicted with seeing everything through ethnic prism as you and others.

Jarus: Gbawe,

Could you put your last two posts together as an article and let's get published in newspapers. Too scientific to be limited to Nairaland.

Inbox me at jarusnairaland@yahoo.com

OK Jarus. I will summarise, edit and send you a finished version you can amend as appropriate.

I am totally with you regarding what you said in your first post here regarding how you are not as passionate about 2015 as you were 2011. I am the same. It is disappointing to note what is needed with clarity yet be frustrated by how the sentimental and biased nature of Nigerians now work to keep us in the conditions we want to escape.

If the APC get it wrong and the PDP succeed in delivering GEJ or another gradualist in 2015, then I am done with Nigerian politics. I certainly won't remain on this forum taking insults from bigots, yobs, uncouth louts and clannish children who have no opinion of their own and can never suggest solutions. For me, It is one final push to see if Nigeria can be rescued. There is more to be enjoyed in life than reading nauseating garbage from those one would ordinarily have no inclination to associate with in real life merely because of the notion of "a better nation".

Gbawe:


Who cares about you and what you think? Call it propaganda or what you will. I am simply happy I am not afflicted with seeing everything through ethnic prism as you and others.

A lot of people do care about what I think, cos they are not fooled like other Nigerians into believing your sudden love for the likes of Okorocha is non sentimental.

Simply give sunstantial reasons why you guys are afraid of listing Nigige? A staunch Acn member!

Good to know you are learning fast from Jarus on how to show love and defend your ethnic group but still know when to shove sentiments aside.

Nuzo':


A lot of people do care about what I think, cos they are not fooled like other Nigerians into believing your sudden love for the likes of Okorocha is non sentimental.

Simply give sunstantial reasons why you guys are afraid of listing Nigige? A staunch Acn member!

Good to know you are learning fast from Jarus on how to show love and defend your ethnic group but still know when to shove sentiments aside.

It is idiots like you I am talking about below given your penchant for falsely and shamelessly maligning the character of others with lies simply because this forum unites us. Check the archives to see I actively supported Okorocha during the Imo guber elections here on this forum. I always have.

Yet you dare to come here to talk about "sudden love" for Okorocha and insinuating I have ulterior motives simply because of the bigotry and hate you are borne with the makes you think every Yoruba is a hateful and biased person like you. People like you are disgusting because you don't care for fairness. You just malign the character of others blindly because of your bigotry. I have nothing to prove to a worthless and paranoid reprobate like you so keep up your lies the Nairaland archives ridicule. I am warning you to just avoid me instead of telling lies that suits your need to prove the hatred you insist others have for you. I am absolutely sick to the back teeth of characters like you.

I certainly won't remain on this forum taking insults from bigots, yobs, uncouth louts and clannish children who have no opinion of their own and can never suggest solutions. For me, It is one final push to see if Nigeria can be rescued. There is more to be enjoyed in life than reading nauseating garbage from those one would ordinarily have no inclination to associate with in real life merely because of the notion of "a better nation".

Afam4eva:
I almost forgot that Ngige is an ACN member. It's just that he doesn't seem desperate. He may just get it ahead of Fashola and Okorocha.

Kindly define desperate so I don't quote you out of context.

Gbawe:

It is idiots like you I am talking about below given your penchant for falsely and shamelessly maligning the character of others with lies simply because this forum unites us. Check the archives to see I actively supported Okorocha during the Imo guber elections here on this forum. I always have.

Yet you dare to come here to talk about "sudden love" for Okorocha and insinuating I have ulterior motives simply because of the bigotry and hate you are borne with the makes you think every Yoruba is a hateful and biased person like you. People like you are disgusting because you don't care for fairness. You just malign the character of others blindly because of your bigotry. I have nothing to prove to a worthless and paranoid reprobate like you so keep up your lies the Nairaland archives ridicule. I am warning you to just avoid me instead of telling lies that suits the hatred you insist others have for you. I am absolutely sick to the back teeth f characters like you.

peeps like nuzo and his cohorts. are reasons am giving up on this nation faster than how ice melt to water.

If this Alliance shall work,sincerely speaking,Southwest should really sit dis one out and sacrifice cuz they are politically matured to bear ;

North/South East ticket for President......


The above permutation is necessary if GEJ is going for secondterm......in order to break Northern and Eastern votes from PDP....GEJ may not also record 100percent in SS!!!


With the above formation(North/east ticket), southwest's votes for APC is still guaranteed with Tinubu,Bisi akande ,Fashola et al working assiduosly for success!!!



Really,Buhari shd also sit dis one out if APC is gonna be taken seriously........APC shd take the fight to PDP not PDP taking d fight to APC.......!!!


Buhari shd not contest at all at all...


My Teams are ;


RIBADU/OKOROCHA ; President/VP

Fashola shd go for senate(Senate president later)

Buhari shd chaired EFCC later!!!!

Gbawe:

It is idiots like you I am talking about below given your penchant for falsely and shhamelessly maligning the character of others with lies simply because this forum unites us. Check the archives to see I actively supported Okorocha during the Imo guber elections here on this forum. I always have. Yet you dare to come here to talk about "sudden love" for Okorocha to be insinuating I have ulterior motives simply because of the bigotry and hate you are borne with the makes you think every Yoruba is a hateful and biased person like you. People like you are disgusting because you don't care for fairness. You just malign the character of others blindly because of your bigotry. I have nothing to prove to a worthless and paranoid reprobate like you so keep up your lies the Nairaland archives ridicule.

Well, you can scream and insult me all you want. All I do is expose the hypocrisy in folks like you.

Go through my new and old moniker to know if I'm in the category of your fellow bigots.

Simple question again. Why is Okorocha being considered over Ngige all of a sudden?

This time around, just answer the question intead of calling people names like a high school kid.

eggheaders:


peeps like nuzo and his cohorts. are reasons am giving up on this nation faster than how ice melt to water.

To be honest, there are many times I ask myself what I am doing here to be having people lie against me openly and insist I have to hate them or that I have ulterior motivation for talking. Another clown, a known bigot here, after I had posted, suggested all our support for Fashola is to "sneak in" in Yoruba VP so we could have a route back to the Presidency. Simply laughable considering a normal person would realise that, even beyond Nigeria, many would not mind Fashola in a great national position because of his pedigree as a proven leader. Even my non-Nigerian West-African friends who follow Nigerian politics, and know our Nation, say the same. Yet come on here to find the only haters of the man are hardened bigots who simply cannot see good in others because of ethnicity.

In life, I don't have a single bigoted friend or associate with liars, mischief-makers, paranoid delsusional hacks or anyone of extreme, malevolent opinion towards others because that is my own deliberate free choice.

It is regrettable coming here to associate with such people , merely because one wants a better nation, and I am certainly growing tired of the children here.

Nuzo':


Well, you can scream and insult me all you want. All I do is expose the hypocrisy in folks like you.

Go through my new and old moniker to know if I'm in the category of your fellow bigots.

Simple question again. Why is Okorocha being considered over Ngige all of a sudden?

This time around, just answer the question intead of calling people names like a high school kid.

Get lost. You are wasting your time if you think I will entertain questions from a judgemental clown like you totally predisposed to seeking hate in the eyes of others. The reason I don't bother taking folks you seriously, once I note what you are, is that what people say to you , once they are Yoruba or Hausa/Fulani, does not matter because your paranoid and hateful mind is made up anyway and you will rather continue to lie and vacillate obdurately instead of back track or simply apologising .

You say "sudden love" for Okorocha yet now you realise I have supported the man even before he became governor you are still shamelessly pushing the "hypocrisy in folks like you" garbage. Shove off geezer. Go and waste the time of others.

HNosegbe: Many of us agree that Buhari would command votes in the north if he runs as president. Ok, but what if he were not to run, but throw his weight behind a candidate more acceptable to the south? You know, the same way Ojukwu helped Peter Obi win a second term by throwing his weight behind him.

I personally don't want Buhari to run. I belong to the class of Nigerians that believe that he cannot win a presidential election ever again, his good intentions notwithstanding.

I would rather see Buhari take up the role as an elder statesman (not godfather oh!!!) and throw his full weight behind a Fashola/Ribadu ticket.

Truth is, Buhari can NEVER win a presidential election in modern Nigeria. The perception many Nigerians (sentimental southern Christians, specifically) is simply too negative.

Well said.

Insanity is doing thesame over and over and be expecting different results. Insanity is for Buhari to be contesting over and over and be expecting to win. Like I earlier said, it is practically impossible for Buhari to win presidential election in modern day Nigeria. The plausibility is for the election to go into second round and that's it.


WHY CAN'T BUHARI BURY HIS SELFISHNESS AND SUPPORT ANOTHER CREDIBLE, YOUNGER AND VIBRANT CANDIDATE ?

Genius100:

I see your point. Certainly, if Buhari runs as president, he absolutely must have a christian VP. My choice is Ezekwesili. I can't think of any other credible christian politician. Okonjo-Iweala would have been nice, but I don't see her resigning from GEJ's administration to run against PDP. Fashola can be made a minister of a strategically important ministry

Not bad and certainly another well-regarded name.

Gbawe:

Get lost. You are wasting your time if you think I will entertain questions from a judgemental clown like you totally predisposed to seeking hate in the eyes of others. The reason I don't bother taking folks you seriously, once I note what you are, is that what people say to you , once they are Yoruba or Hausa/Fulani, does not matter because your paranoid and hateful mind is made up anyway and you will rather continue to lie and vacillate obdurately instead of back track or simply apologising .

You say "sudden love" for Okorocha yet now you realise I have supported the man even before he became governor you are still shamelessly pushing the "hypocrisy in folks like you" garbage. Shove off geezer. Go and waste the time of others.

Stop spinning this whole thing and making it all about you abeg!

Just answer the honest question abeg. Your answer will expose the hypocrisy some people have exihibited on this forum.

And for your info, I had always prefered Ribadu.

Buhari is the land factor in the law of diminishing and return. No amount of additional inputs can yield any percentile output.

WHY MUST IT BE ABOUT BUHARI?

Na wa for unrequited love oh

Rhino.5dm:


Well said.

Insanity is doing thesame over and over and be expecting different results. Insanity is for Buhari to be contesting over and over and be expecting to win. Like I earlier said, it is practically impossible for Buhari to win presidential election in modern day Nigeria. The plausibility is for the election to go into second round and that's it.


WHY CAN'T BUHARI BURY HIS SELFISHNESS AND SUPPORT ANOTHER CREDIBLE, YOUNGER AND VIBRANT CANDIDATE ?

Look, it is not "selfishness" patriotically believing you have something to offer your Nation. Atta-Mills, like Buhari, competed twice (2000 and 2004) before winning at the third go in 2008. You must accept that most Nigerian voters will not be like you and most of us here - especially in the North. They will be sentimental and highly biased. Please understand that I don't discount your opinion about 'fresh blood' which is a good one.

In fact, I showed here that I agreed with you in the past by supporting Ribadu in 2010-2011 here. After that election and three years on, it is obvious it may be very hard and unproductive work honing Ribadu, EL Rufai or similar into potential winners in the North. I will try and find this article for you that will make you see what I confronted after the elections. Ribadu is even considered more a Southerner in the North than anything else. He is viewd with skepticism by a region that still has many, many clannish illiterate than our own learned Ndu Chucks. That is the pragmatic truth all of us who want the PDP gone must face.

Go back to the 2011 to note the vote candidates won and let us talk, purely on vote winning, whether Ribadu can bridge the gap in 2015. I once backed Ribadu but I would back a more balanced ticket today that can oust the PDP because I would rather have a Buhari Presidency safe in the knowledge it will surely accommodate the Fasholas, Ribadus, Ezekwesilis, Oshiomhole, Falana et al than gamble on Ribadu and the APC lose at the centre so Nigeria faces another 4 years of gradualists like GEJ, Sambo David Mark et al. Reality must counter idealism in the 2015 project. Lessons must be learnt from the 2011 PDP win.

Jarus , the starter of this thread, will tell you no one spoke more passionately in favour of Ribadu here than me and one other chap called Doja in 2010-2011. Yet I would not tout Ribadu today ahead of Buhari because I am trying to work with the science of things. They keep saying Buhari is unelectable in the South. Rubbish in my opinion. Plenty of time to eschew laziness and mobilise support for him to negate his dour perception. Also whether we like it or not, ethnicity and sentiments will play a part. There would still be many who would ignore their dislike of Buhari and vote for his popular, well-liked Southern VP because that VP has a bright chance of taking over from Buhari. I don't bother about those things but the same cannot be said of average Nigerias.

Personally, I just want a President who will not be averse to what Nigeria genuinely needs for transformation i.e square pegs in square holes. In that respect it could be Buhari, Ribadu or even anyone else but we still have to deal with the science and statistics that show who/what can defeat the PDP. I am merely giving my own opinion and not telling anyone to accept it. At the end of the day, those of us who want the PDP gone will still do our best for the candidates the APC settle on.

donroxy: If this Alliance shall work,sincerely speaking,Southwest should really sit dis one out and sacrifice cuz they are politically matured to bear ;

North/South East ticket for President......


The above permutation is necessary if GEJ is going for secondterm......in order to break Northern and Eastern votes from PDP....GEJ may not also record 100percent in SS!!!


With the above formation(North/east ticket), southwest's votes for APC is still guaranteed with Tinubu,Bisi akande ,Fashola et al working assiduosly for success!!!



Really,Buhari shd also sit dis one out if APC is gonna be taken seriously........APC shd take the fight to PDP not PDP taking d fight to APC.......!!!


Buhari shd not contest at all at all...


My Teams are ;


RIBADU/OKOROCHA ; President/VP

Fashola shd go for senate(Senate president later)

Buhari shd chaired EFCC later!!!!

Seems I'll have to change my mind after reading GBAWE's on Buhari...... Considering Nigerians and Nigeria scenario!!!

Gbawe:

Look, it is not "selfishness" patriotically believing you have something to offer your Nation. Atta-Mills, like Buhari, competed twice (2000 and 2004) before winning at the third go in 2008. You must accept that most Nigerian voters will not be like you and most of us here - especially in the North. They will be sentimental and highly biased. Please understand that I don't discount your opinion about 'fresh blood' which is a good one...

Firstly, I have to say I always respect your analyses and mature opinion. But don't you think Ribadu is more appealing to the north than Buhari is to the south? I also think it's easier to get the north to vote as a single block if Ribadu is pitted against Jonathan, better than what Buhari got in 2011. I campaigned a lot for Buhari in 2011 but I'm having my fears for his acceptability in the south (esp SE) in 2015. We can't just ignore the fact that people vote based solely on ethnic/religious sentiments.

My wish is a Ribadu+Ezekwesili/Ngige/Okorocha candidacy. I think the north will sway in their favor if Buhari campaigns for them. El-Rufai & Oshiomole are moles (pun intended) as far as I am concerned & can't be trusted.

Oga mi, The hatred I have for anything PDP is what is pushing me to take my present stand about Buhari candidacy. I did support Buhari in the last two elections and my love for change pushed me to have some personal correspondence with Engr. Buba Galadima but the present picture is bigger than Buhari and his ambition. The mere thoughts of having PDP at the center gives me a hopeless sight of the future of my young daughter.

I don't care if the opposition win in 2015 or not, what I care most is for the opposition to have a working strategy that will one day usher in a change from status quo. Putting Buhari in the picture will surely give PDP an early victory. WHY CAN'T WE PLAN FOR MORE REALISTIC PERIOD which I think is 2019 and use this period to galvanize support from grassroots by building blocks across the regions? The only option left for Buhari IMO is to throw his weight behind a younger and more vibrant candidate of clean personality.

Until we do away with what we feel and face the present reality, which is characterized by wide division along religious and ethnic lines, the outcome of the election will surely remain thesame.

Gbawe:

Look, it is not "selfishness" patriotically believing you have something to offer your Nation. Atta-Mills, like Buhari, competed twice (2000 and 2004) before winning at the third go in 2008. You must accept that most Nigerian voters will not be like you and most of us here - especially in the North. They will be sentimental and highly biased. Please understand that I don't discount your opinion about 'fresh blood' which is a good one.

In fact, I showed here that I agreed with you in the past by supporting Ribadu in 2010-2011 here. After that election and three years on, it is obvious it may be very hard and unproductive work honing Ribadu, EL Rufai or similar into potential winners in the North. I will try and find this article for you that will make you see what I confronted after the elections. Ribadu is even considered more a Southerner in the North than anything else. He is viewd with skepticism by a region that still has many, many clannish illiterate than our own learned Ndu Chucks. That is the pragmatic truth all of us who want the PDP gone must face.

Go back to the 2011 to note the vote candidates won and let us talk, purely on vote winning, whether Ribadu can bridge the gap in 2015. I once backed Ribadu but I would back a more balanced ticket today that can oust the PDP because I would rather have a Buhari Presidency safe in the knowledge it will surely accommodate the Fasholas, Ribadus, Ezekwesilis, Oshiomhole, Falana et al than gamble on Ribadu and the APC lose at the centre so Nigeria faces another 4 years of gradualists like GEJ, Sambo David Mark et al. Reality must counter idealism in the 2015 project. Lessons must be learnt from the 2011 PDP win.

Nuzo':


Kindly define desperate so I don't quote you out of context.

His body language does not suggest that he's interested in vying for the VP seat. He's never been mentioned in that regard like Okorocha, Fashola and others.

The dynamics at play during the 2010 elections are simply not there any longer.

Pre-2010, During the Yaradua's saga; GEJ was seen by the public as an underdog. Someone who has been cheated and greatly harmed due to the fact that he has no political backing as at then. And more importantly, people seen him as been cheated due to the fact that he was from a "minority tribe"
This resonated greatly with the ordinary man on the street who faces such odds and injustice on a daily basis. This, coupled with the "I have no shoes" I was born in poverty quip made the people on the street see him as one of them. They not only identified with him, bur most importantly his candidature for the presidency position gave them hope that one can rise to greatness regardless of his present station in life. When these factors and others were brought together, there was only going to be one winner.
Post 2010. The economic condition of an average Nigerian has not greatly improved as expected. And I would hazard a guess that thing are a lot more difficult for the common man than before. The nation as been greatly polarised among different factions: north vs south, christains vs muslims, pdp vs the rest, etc. Inflation has taken its toil on the pocket of Nigerians. people are simply not going to vote on the altar of "I have no shoe' matra again. Since they now know better.

Pre-2015. GEJ is longer the underdog of 2010 and people perception of him has changed greatly since. They now no longer see him as powerless or the poor boy/man about to be deprived of this rightful mandate. The transformation has sadly changed to dis-figuration. Corruption and tales of maladministration liters his government. GEJ of 2009 is no longer recognizable. The common man can no longer identify him. The poor GEJ who cannot afford a pair of shoe yesterday is now an overnight billoniare.

Change is in the air!!!

If APC is to have a realistic chance of winning, they must present a candidate the average Nigerian on the street can identify with. A candidate that gives hope of a better tomorrow to Nigerians across all section.

Afam4eva:
His body language does not suggest that he's interested in vying for the VP seat. He's never been mentioned in that regard like Okorocha, Fashola and others.

Body language. What do you mean by that?
Hope you don't mean mouthing off and calling people names at every little opportunity?

And who's body language shows they are interested in president or vp?

Again, when does overhyping and mentioning people's names by their propagandist supporters amount to one being or not being interested?

To be honest with you Afam, your reasons are very laughable.

skyfall:


Firstly, I have to say I always respect your analyses and mature opinion. But don't you think Ribadu is more appealing to the north than Buhari is to the south? I also think it's easier to get the north to vote as a single block if Ribadu is pitted against Jonathan, better than what Buhari got in 2011. I campaigned a lot for Buhari in 2011 but I'm having my fears for his acceptability in the south (esp SE) in 2015. People vote based solely on ethnic/religious sentiments.

My wish is a Ribadu+Ezekwesili/Ngige/Okorocha candidacy. I think the north will sway in their favor if Buhari campaigns for them. El-Rufai & Oshiomole are moles (pun intended) as far as I am concerned & can't be trusted.

My guy, the problem tacticians must face is that the North still has many illiterate and clannish voters who will vote according to their mental affinity to a candidate. Tacticians have to accept and accommodate this reality. One thing many envisage are candidates to beat GEJ/Sambo alone yet we rule out the fact the PDP may go for a Northerner. Tacticians hve to prepare for all scenarios and If this happen the APC will calculate that Buhari will likely defeat any Northerner the PDP produces. Can the same be said of Ribadu? Has he built up the credibility Buhari has to defeat an Aliyu, Lamido or even Atiku flanked by a popular southerner like Amaechi? The APC candidates must be one strong enough to defeat any combo the PDP throws up.

Secondly, that Ribadu is a Northerner does not mean much electorally. The last election showed this. It may work if Buhari backs him and it may not. Some may get behind Ribadu at Buharis insistence and other may simply conclude if Buhari is not running then they would vote for a "proper" Northerner/Moslem. Some will prefer to vote a "proper" moslem, even if a crook, who makes more of an open show of flaunting his religion than Ribadu. Little known is that many in the North regard Ribadu as a Southerner because of how they perceive him to be too comfortable with southerners and a character who de-emphasises his religious leaning. How well did Ribadu even do in his home State of Adamama State for anyone to now consider him capable of sweeping the North even with Buhari behind him? The only State Ribadu won was Osun State in the SW. Go figure. The "Almajiris" who literally deify Buhari will be the hardest voting bloc, in Nigeria, to get on side for Ribadu. Whereas a popular Southern VP and hard work at grass root level may bridge the Buhari "unpopularity" gap in the South easier than certain Northerner who form a big voting bloc can be persuaded to vote Ribadu. Like I said earlier, I supported Ribadu in 2011 but I confronted some home truth after the election as someone who always tries, as much as possible, to deal dispassionately with what is feasible and likely.

Nothing is set in stone and I am not saying I am right or that anyone should accept my opinion. Truth be told, I still prefer a Ribadu Presidency. I was glad for Ghana when the 54 year old Dramani defeated the 68 old year old Akuffo Addo because I think there is a potent argument for youthful vigour. Yet our situation is very different and dire because a 2015 loss means 4 more years of the sort of hideous gradualism being eschewed everywhere in the World.

Look through the archives to know that Jarus conducted a Nairaland "campaign" debate here in 2011 where I represented Ribadu and Beaf represented GEJ. Nonetheless, I now accept that issues are more about hard work, the scientific/statistical/pragmatic aspect of things and uniting the best pair that can defeat the PDP. It is not just about the candidates me and you would like to see. Were that the case, then Ribadu would again be my first choice as was the case in 2011.

In 2015, taking the peculiarities of our country into condition, both the candidates for the presidency and his vice is going to matter a lot. Since the vice will be seen as the person taking over after him.

For APC the conditions to be met are:

1) It is going to be a North/South ticket not vice versa.
2) Both candidates will be of different religion. I.e. Christian/Muslim or vice versa.
3) One must be seen to have a principled stance against corruption and the other must be a technocrat with a history of getting things done.
4) The must be acceptable to a large swath of the country so as to minimize the ethnic bigotry we are presently witnessing.
5) They must have the charisma to attract a large number of people across different divides (ethnic ground, religion, etc.) to vote for them.

As at present, it is difficult to point the candidates that would fulfill these conditions. But i believe that with the necessary outreach and backdoor negotiations, APC is going to select the candidates that would meet these conditions.

The greatest mistake APC could make is to wait until next year, 2014 before publicly naming its presumed candidates. Time in not on their side if they hope to win the forthcoming elections.
They should settle early for their winning candidates regardless of who PDP is going to select. They must start building bridges early among the various tribes and faiths within the country. They must be seen to do this publicly and in good faith. Perception counts a lot.

It would be criminal for them to assume that some sections will not vote for them regardless of whether they reach out to them or not. They must campaign in all parts of the country. All difficult/uncomfortable questions must be tackled head on. Not just simply sweeping it under the carpet. The peculiarities of different tribes must be entertained and concrete assurances made.
It is going to be a rocky road, but if there is honesty and sincerity of purpose, not just wanting power for the sake of it, I see a light at the end of the tunnel

peter_tosh:
It would be criminal for them to assume that some sections will not vote for them regardless of whether they reach out to them or not. They must campaign in all parts of the country. All difficult/uncomfortable questions must be tackled head on. Not just simply sweeping it under the carpet. The peculiarities of different tribes must be entertained and concrete assurances made.
It is going to be a rocky road, but if there is honesty and sincerity of purpose, not just wanting power for the sake of it, I see a light at the end of the tunnel

This is the mistake that Buhari made in the previous elections. he never campaigned in the SE and SE. Even when he did, he only campaigned in a state. He also didn't reach out to prominent people from those places to help him use their influence. He was only depending on the North and you can't win an election by depending on the North alone especially when your contender also has some following in the North.