taharqa: SIMPLE!!! It is called INFRASTRUCTURE

taharqa: My take on dis discuss is pretty simple and fairly straight forward: Continually improve INFRASTRUCTURE- both Physical (Power, Roads, Airports, Bridges, Ports, Gas pipelines, Broadband, etc) and nonPhysical (Elections, Political Stability, Security, Policy Consistency, Bureaucracy, Legal, Regulatory Environment, etc)- and Africa, esp Nigeria, wud BEGIN a truly Economic Turnaround, and wud do so in a SUSTAINABLE way. SIMPLE..... INFRASTRUCTURE (Basics) is d KEY, not all these too much grammar.... May I also add that it is a JOURNEY, albeit a Focused and Preditable one; it alway is and always has been

Infrastructure might be key but i don't think its the basic. We need to free our minds. Before we can have and industrial revolution or any kind of revolution that would help Africans in general, we have to free the mind to be able to think Objectively. Unfortunately as debates go on Nairaland, you would see that the average Nigerian has a closed mind.

Kasutomoto.... You hit the nail on the head.
Papebrowne..... You are an oldie in Nairaland so you should know that knowledge revolution is kind of unlikely in Nigeria as things stand today.

shymexx:

It’s not about impressing me, or having love for pan-Africanists… My comment was based on what I feel the blueprint for Nigeria’s economy should be – and I cited working examples of countries who are naturally, culturally, and geographically similar to us… That’s the template we ought to follow to move Nigeria to where it belongs in scheme of things in the world – not bogus and declining templates – which are not suitable for us…

The West still has a stronger financial base than any other region in the world... Hence, why their economy is focused on that for now because that's primarily the only way it can out-compete everyone else... And I reiterate, their template isn't going to work for us...



Sorry, I had to delete the rest of your post because everything was based on one example – which is: consumer electronics…. I alluded to manufacturing/industrial base, and I never mentioned anything about consumer electronics… My assertion was about taking the raw-materials/mineral-resources we produce and turning them into finished goods – thus creating jobs, reducing overhead costs, and expanding the economy… Rather than selling the raw materials and importing the finished goods at a higher cost…

However, the earlier you realize that globalization is a fraud, the better for Africa… Africa doesn’t have the needed economic and industrial power to compete in the so-called; globalized world… And we need to focus on our unique strengths for now, rather than lopsided globalization pipe dream…

Spot on!!!

Africa must learn from Haiti. In Haiti, the West established a free trade zone and told the then president that their creole goats and livestock needed to meet global standards. So they injected a whole lot of their goats and pigs with vaccines. Since then, the creole pigs rate of reproduction fell. What's the lesson? Don't let anyone control how u manage your resources because u want to be "globalized". Africa must learn from this.

Africa is sitting on solid minerals. Africa has oil, aluminium, diamond, tin, lead, bitumen, copper, gold etce. We have cocoa, oil palm, cotton etc. Cash crops and natural resources are our strength. We can channel the revenue accrued from solid minerals to provide electricity, education and good health care, while agriculture remains a strong pillar of our economy. Its always a popular saying that one must focus on ones strength. This commodity boom may not last long but it could be a good moment to lay a solid foundation for the next generation.


Frawzey

As an economist, the solution to Nigeria's economic woes is to correct the Fiscal/Monetary policy discrepancy in the country i.e. the government running on a deficit budget (expansionary fiscal policy) and at the same time set intrest rate at 12% to curb inflation, which is caused mostly by the wastefulness of the govt via spending recklessly instead of increase in aggregate consumption accross board (as in the case of Brazil) when the inflation rate rises, instead of tackling the root of the problem, they take the lazy route via increasing the rate of lending which will stifle the economy as businesses will find it difficult to raise capital. And the most disheartening part is that the inflation rate still remains high because they refused to check the real causes of inflation in the country. MY SUBMISSION: for the economy to move forward, all levels of government should curb wastefulness and make capital more accessible by reducing the intrest rate which in my opinion is ridiculous! If you disagree, please state your own points/proffer your own solutions... Let's learn from each other.

Katsumoto:

True

Opportunities exist for improving technology, marketing/sales, HR, education, etc which can transform millions of lives but the biggest obstacle to Agriculture and its value chain remains LOGISTICS i.e transportation & power. It is impossible to move away from good road and air transport systems and stable electricity. If you can't store, process, and transport your products, then you might as well be throwing your money away literally.

Yep! Considering that storing, processing and transporting produce do currently exist albeit inefficiently, my belief is that improving on these areas even minimally has the potential to to earn investors huge returns even in the face of decrepit infrastructure. Simple things like changing packing cases can save tonnes in potentially wasted produce. Ever wondered why we still transport tomatoes in woven baskets when Cartons are more efficient and much cheaper? 70% is usually wasted across the chain because of design factors. Truth is many areas have been left to the illiterate mind and that has stunted the growth of our better industries. Its time for creative thinkers to leave the oil industry alone and focus on creating solutions in sectors such as these that would give us enormous advantage.

Dis is such a very good thread for learners such as me so my time on nairaland won't be a waste keep it up guys.o boy i need to start studying and researching into relevant things and not 2going as usual

PapaBrowne:

Yep! Considering that storing, processing and transporting produce do currently exist albeit inefficiently, my belief is that improving on these areas even minimally has the potential to to earn investors huge returns even in the face of decrepit infrastructure. Simple things like changing packing cases can save tonnes in potentially wasted produce. Ever wondered why we still transport tomatoes in woven baskets when Cartons are more efficient and much cheaper? 70% is usually wasted across the chain because of design factors. Truth is many areas have been left to the illiterate mind and that has stunted the growth of our better industries. Its time for creative thinkers to leave the oil industry alone and focus on creating solutions in sectors such as these that would give us enormous advantage.

The structure of the country is such that it doesn't encourage creative thinking.

The reason why attention has been shifted to Africa-especially Nigeria is because of the plateuing growth and the saturation of the industrial triad and developed country markets. Since real GDP growth rate has been improving in some part of Africa countries in the last decade, firms in the developed world have seen Africa as destinations to attain market share and competitive advantage. The exodus of these firms could, therefore, translate to economic revolution in many of these countries where they establish presence. In Nigeria, apart from the economic indicator such as GDP growth rate, inflation rate, foreign trade etc., the intimidating population and the growing number of middle-income level could also facilitate Nigeria to becoming a super power in the next 10 years.
One the factor that would acelerate foreign direct investment in Nigeria would be the accessibilty to cheap labour. Manufacturing fims in the developed economies are now looking for environment to obtain economies of scale and scope through access to cheap labour. Considering the labour market in Nigeria which is characterised with crop of unemployed graduates and underemployed individuals, the country is therefore a veritable source of harnessing cheap labour for most of manufacturing firms. These are some of the reasons why Africa countries are projected as supeer power in the next 10 to 20 years. This is just my own idea!!!

I do not need a soothsayer to tell me that there is room for new TV sets in Africa, I mean a home that hasnt even got a TV set since creation. Can I say the same for developed nations. Listen to me, Africa is the next big thing. Pessimists will disagree, ofcourse, thats why they are pessimists. But remember, with 247 electricity, the steel mines and moulds will start singing hymns and the manufacturers will pull in FDIs from all directions. Trust me, we work like horses down here. We are the Ivy League of tomorrow.

Ugosample: As an economist, the solution to Nigeria's economic woes is to correct the Fiscal/Monetary policy discrepancy in the country i.e. the government running on a deficit budget (expansionary fiscal policy) and at the same time set intrest rate at 12% to curb inflation, which is caused mostly by the wastefulness of the govt via spending recklessly instead of increase in aggregate consumption accross board (as in the case of Brazil) when the inflation rate rises, instead of tackling the root of the problem, they take the lazy route via increasing the rate of lending which will stifle the economy as businesses will find it difficult to raise capital. And the most disheartening part is that the inflation rate still remains high because they refused to check the real causes of inflation in the country. MY SUBMISSION: for the economy to move forward, all levels of government should curb wastefulness and make capital more accessible by reducing the intrest rate which in my opinion is ridiculous! If you disagree, please state your own points/proffer your own solutions... Let's learn from each other.

From an economist point of view, you are correct. Infact, i've always asked why the MPC always left interest rates at 12%. Inflation has dropped, yet the CBN still holds the 12% interest rate, instead of easing a bit to 10%. Its a common saying among nigerians that foreigners come into the country because our economy is strong while nigerians are jetting out. My response is this: a foreigner will never come into nigeria to start a business without money. Infact, China has a zero percent loan program for chinese who want to invest in Africa. Here, there's a high probability that a lebanese would get a loan before a nigerian. Funny enough, he could jet-out of the country without paying back.

CBN lends bank at 12%, banks lend us at 23-26% For a budding entrepreneur, 23% is too much. How do they want small businesses -that are the largest employers of labour- to grow?

The chance of chinese making it in Nigeria is higher than a nigerian because policies are more political than economical.


Frawzey

PapaBrowne:

Hehe, you make me smile with regards to the sitting 20hrs without going anywhere. I attend conferences globally where the best of the best rile on about the new african dawn! Its in those conferences I learn that the average African doesnt seem to know that his time has come and the onus is on him to take advantage. You can stay pessimistic all you like, I'm an optimist and I believe immensely that our time for advantage has come.

Sadly,because of your regular bias, you didn't read the thread and hence didnt realise that you have just corroborated my point and gone against Pukkah's point! Wish you can re-read the thread. My opinion is that it is foolhardy to try compete on Industrialization at this point. We don't have the engineers and it would take some good 20-30 years to train them by which point the world would have gone onto something else.
Our strengths are in Agriculture and the extractive industry. Knowledge on the other hand is an area we can leapfrog on given the short time required to develop skills like coding.
Building an industrial base is not a prerequisite anymore given the strength of globalisation! I stand to be corrected. The greatest cities in the world don't manufacture...

No. Blame whatever perceived bias you think motivates my response but I understood what you wrote clearly even if you now want be revisionist. It is the usual blend of the highly personalised and subjective take on issues that always make you appear 'hackneyed'.

Africa is leapfrogging the Industrial revolution and bolting straight into the knowledge revolution! To employ our hordes of young people, we would use our huge fertile land resources to feed the world! Its that simple. Afterall, we currently possess 60% of the world's unutilized arable land

We are not "bolting" into any knowledge revolution in so far as we are completely to be found only at the end user section of the market and never in areas of hijacking processes to proactively produce Afro-centred innovations and solutions. What innovations and unique technology, deliberately devised to address our problems, are we inspirationally pioneering?

The sad truth is that we are the often disregarded and "negligible" continent to be courted for our unthinking consumerist zeal but never respected enduringly because we are entirely reliant on others and perpetually unable to fashion a template that deliberately positions Africans to be self-liberating dedicated solution providers before anything else.

That is what success and great nationhood emanate from i.e the transformation of citizens into inspired solution providers. In so far as we are not making any scientific and deliberate effort in this direction, you and others are fooling yourselves talking of any "bright age" of revolution.

I am seeing the future now as an involved African entrepreneur and I can tell you it is a future that saddens me because of how I know it inevitably involves all entrepreneurs and investors, from every nation of the world, rapaciously converging to corner the wealth of the "Last frontier" while Africans themselves prefer staying abroad pontificating and grandstanding or chasing bank/white collar jobs in Africa. Either way, we come with the poorest skill-set to be the biggest beneficiary of how our continent is opening up as the last "wild West" where fortunes still abound in a world that, minus Africa, is like an aggressively over-farmed fish tank.

This is happening because of our apathy and the sort of egotistic self-deceit that make some happy to formulate theories from the diaspora while their continent of origin is being carved up by avaricious players in a world where Africa is becoming the last arena of new vast wealth.

Why do you think I taunt so many here to get involved? Bar coming to force folks, that is my way of saying "stop deceiving yourselves and get involved or watch your continent taken over while you theorise from afar". Making ourselves feel good over some misguided "it is our time" dream is squarely defeated by what is going on right now. People should trust me on that. The world is not standing still outsiders recognise the potentials of Africa even if Africans themselves don't . To me, there is no indication whatsoever, from what I see with my own eyes, that the African is currently capable of mustering the deliberate will, effort and vision to be able to harness, as a 'first refusal' stakeolder, the enormous and still largely untapped potentials of his own continent.

Hmmmm,lot to learn here oooo, i believe Agricultural Revolution is central to Africa's Economic Revolution BUT, there is a possibility of market failure in nigeria's / Africa's agriculture, if we continue to allow imported foods from the western countries, as farmers over there are heavily subsidised by their governments,meaning food is cheaper than the value of production and they will dump those relatively cheap food in to African countries.

Akanbi_edu:

This is all you've got and you had to call people dunderheads? SMH

Why don't you read and learn like me? huh

Especially as I was quoting someone for hitting the nail on the head and saying all that needed to be said.

However I'm quoting you for being a DUNDERHEAD.

[quote author=ROSSIKE]
Mr ive been following ur posting in this forum and and i can attest to the fact that u re a different breed of nigreians. I really respect ur intellectual capacity and reserched base comments. I somtimes wish that great number of Nigerians 'll think the way u do.
Back to the topic i think GEJ has raised a lot of hope thru some right policies in agric. power, transport manufacturing trade & investment education. now let say that china and india hav outran us we can...

For Akanbi-Edu or whatever your name is:

Industrialization is a crucial phase of development, as it stimulates other parts of the economy/polity by providing the BASE (read infrastructure)for true growth. From my knowledge you cannot skip that phase and expect to build a stable economy.

Satisfied?

cjrane:

Believe me,I love and pray Nigeria succeeds.But Nigeria is taking a path of forced unity which had failed even in more powerful countries.

Yes, Nigeria is #1 investment destination in Africa and can very well be the #1 in the world. It doesn't change the fact that 2015 shall be a hotly contested election. It doesn't prevent Boko Haram from killing other nigerians or trying to blow up petrol farms or bridges in Lagos. The foreign investments shall NOT prevent other ethnic groups from exerting revenge on others when they feel they 've had enough. You cannot guarantee the backlash outcome of a successful boko haram strike in Lagos. God Forbid!

The point being that foreign investment shall not change the fundamental issues we face as Nigerians. We must solve those issues before we can brag on the guarantee of Nigerian being there in 2050 to fulfill the projections of your "seasoned" analysts.Mind you,the same type of "analysts" said in 1960, that Nigeria shall easily become an industrialized country in 20 years.(Read "The Africans" by mazrui). They didn't take into account the fact that Nigeria's problems might lead to bloody riots in the west,instability or with imposition of state of emergency, military coup and counter coup which could degenerate into a bloody civil war, all within a space of less than 2 years! That is the "factor" i'm trying to get you to consider.How to make Nigeria prosperous as a diverse place.

Foreign investors have invested in unstable places and sometimes,it is merely a calculated business risk. It doesn't guarantee that those events shall not happen.The recession in Europe and much of the world have made the risk of investing in Nigeria somewhat more palatable, it does not remove the risk.

He has a point here.

Nigeria may not break up, but there are enough problems on ground to keep the govt permanently distracted for decades.

In the meantime, buccaneering high risk investors may use these "problems" as an excuse to negotiate disproportionately favourable terms and guarantees for themselves, with well planned financial exit routes that will be utilised once there is a whiff of recovery in Europe .

PapaBrowne:

Theres a lot of technological advancements going on. Hopefully funding would improve for stem cell research and with that brain replacement might just be possible within this decade. I still feel for you though. Your mental defect is really making life miserable for you. I dont know where exactly you are based, I would have used Google and recommended some good NeuroSurgeons. In the meantime, I'll be praying for your speedy mental recovery.

And before I go, who did you say hit your head that caused your mental problems? You know you can sue right??

we can watch closely countries like malasia and thailand. if we want to move very fast to acheive v. 2020. its stil posible if we can adopt agressive policies.just litle moves by FG. FDI started trooping cos nig. is the market that holds the economyof many countris. so in view of any policy that ll change the game, they ll rather come in and ivest than to loose the mkt. in malasia duty for fuly built vehicle is 130% while in nigeria is 10 to 20% that alone caused revolution in their auto industry

PapaBrowne:

While I agree with you somewhat, you should realize that manufacturing is entirely different from an Industrial revolution. My take is that we don't exactly have adequate engineers to create an industrial revolution. The bedrock of industrialization is core engineering and to get the right kind of engineers, we need 20-30 years of qualitative training.
Our goods can never be as competitive as those produced in say China with the kind of engineers we have produced over the last 20 years.

As regards manufacturing, yes we would manufacture light goods, but we would have to buy the machines from the Asians,Europeans and Americans. True Industrialization which would see us build machines for manufacturing is predicated on a very reliable logistic system with technical design as key. We are not getting that anytime soon.

Knowledge based economy is simpler. You sit down in one office and create a search engine based on the knowledge you have. The world loves it and gives you 50 Billion dollars every year.You employ 53,000 people. Thats Google. You create a social networking site from your dorm room that the world goes agog for. They pay you billions yearly. Thats facebook. You design a product thats beautiful and extremely functional. You give engineers in Taiwan to couple the product and produce millions for the world. You end up with valuation of $600 billion. Thats Apple.
And thats the knowledge economy for you. The barriers are less compared to industrialization!

I think it is important to define "knowledge" and "knowledge based economy". The distinction you attempt to make between manufacturing and knowledge based economy is not only artificial it is false. Anyway the starting point is to agree on a working definition for this thread.
As far as Facebook Apple and Google are concerned,it is no coincidence that they are American Companies. I would like to believe you are not saying the US is the only country with a knowledge based economy and I am not accusing you of this. So where is the French,Japanese,German or Canadian Google or Facebook.
Packaging and tranporting vegetables more efficiently and Vaue Chain Management Logistics is "knowledge" and any General will tell you such knowledge can make a difference between who wins or loses a war. Knowledge is a complex thing and not quite as simplistic as you would make it seem. It can determine who produces the cheapest chicken,pork or tomatoes or which rifle jams first during crucial battles with as devastating outcomes as the latter scenario may suggest not just for the soldier but history.
In my view there is such a thing as the opposite of knowledge which is not merely the absence of knowledge but something worse. Things like Boko Haram and Pentecostal churches with their magical doctrines encourage our belief in miraculous solutions to human problems. So deafness,epilepsy etc are caused by spirits and we do not research other solutions but also the research and experimentation culture is stunted and moribund. This antiknowledge impacts our health and well being as well as that of our livestock with the result in high mortality. It is a cliche to say ignorance is costly but anti-knowledge is not ignorance merely. It is worse. The Nigerian Economy was more efficientt in 1950 than it is today. The colonial government kept very good records. Kolanuts,palm oil,groundnuts were being transported by the TRAINLOAD today it is not happening. That is evidence of a "knowledge deficit" we do not KNOW how to run things efficiently and productively. That is the most basic of knowledges. We cannot run a Police Force or Airports or even Universities. Those basic things are simple (not complex) but not easy as we have shown for 50 years

In todays world if we are focused of Agriculture and Value Addition to Agricultural products we can "industrialize" along that trajectory. Industrialization doe not mean Hi-Tech . It just implies "massive and more efficient" so you can industrialize the milking of cows or even moin moin making

^^^^^ Aribi

Even a change of name couldn't change your pattern of writing.

fellow countrymen we should not decieve ourselves...methinks the country Nigeria is like "an intoxicated rat moving round n circles". it has blatantly continously refused to tackle its self-inflected man-made problems. the unemployment rate of over 80%(not the 23% currently been reported by FG, the media and their cohorts )is a shining example. these niccompoops called leaders have just made up their minds not to solve this problem.instead they call naija youths lazybones e.t.c. look at America`s Obama analysing this particular problem in details and administering palliatives accordingly in areas where needed. Africa and Nigeria currently living on the edge courtesy excessive consumerism, are merely surving on handouts from the west and allies

Great debates here frm ppl with d intellectual capability.

But I strongly concur wt d points raised by gbawe dat comparative advantage is d way forward for nigeria and indeed africa in ds competitve world. Africa posses abt 45percent of d world's natural resources. This means dat we can stil achieve a lot in d agric sector goin by d edge we av wen it cums to favorable climate and rich cultivable land.

All that need to b done is a favorable and encoragin govt policies dat wil attract an exodus of our youths whose majority re currently unproductive.

Also infastructure lik transport, power etc needs to b provided for a more efficient productivity.

I believ dat with d necessary logistics in place, africa and indeed nigeria will surely get there.

omonnakoda:
I think it is important to define "knowledge" and "knowledge based economy". The distinction you attempt to make between manufacturing and knowledge based economy is not only artificial it is false. Anyway the starting point is to agree on a working definition for this thread.
As far as Facebook Apple and Google are concerned,it is no coincidence that they are American Companies. I would like to believe you are not saying the US is the only country with a knowledge based economy and I am not accusing you of this. So where is the French,Japanese,German or Canadian Google or Facebook.
Packaging and tranporting vegetables more efficiently and Vaue Chain Management Logistics is "knowledge" and any General will tell you such knowledge can make a difference between who wins or loses a war. Knowledge is a complex thing and not quite as simplistic as you would make it seem. It can determine who produces the cheapest chicken,pork or tomatoes or which rifle jams first during crucial battles with as devastating outcomes as the latter scenario may suggest not just for the soldier but history.
In my view there is such a thing as the opposite of knowledge which is not merely the absence of knowledge but something worse. Things like Boko Haram and Pentecostal churches with their magical doctrines encourage our belief in miraculous solutions to human problems. So deafness,epilepsy etc are caused by spirits and we do not research other solutions but also the research and experimentation culture is stunted and moribund. This antiknowledge impacts our health and well being as well as that of our livestock with the result in high mortality. It is a cliche to say ignorance is costly but anti-knowledge is not ignorance merely. It is worse. The Nigerian Economy was more efficientt in 1950 than it is today. The colonial government kept very good records. Kolanuts,palm oil,groundnuts were being transported by the TRAINLOAD today it is not happening. That is evidence of a "knowledge deficit" we do not KNOW how to run things efficiently and productively. That is the most basic of knowledges. We cannot run a Police Force or Airports or even Universities. Those basic things are simple (not complex) but not easy as we have shown for 50 years

In todays world if we are focused of Agriculture and Value Addition to Agricultural products we can "industrialize" along that trajectory. Industrialization doe not mean Hi-Tech . It just implies "massive and more efficient" so you can industrialize the milking of cows or even moin moin making

Thank you. Tell Nigerians to focus on improving themselves , as regards these disgraceful fundamental deficiencies, before touting themselves "the future kings of the world" and insults is all you will get from those, like the OP, who are too egotistical to see or accept reality.

Anyone talking about "African revolution" is simply operating with a misguided sense of the reality on the ground. The "revolution" will happen.

It has even begun in my opinion but it will not unravel in a way that will please some 'black power' elements such as the OP. This is more a 'free for all' and disorganised revolution occasioned by the apathy and skill deficit of Africans that is making far too many of them totally disenfranchised 'bystanders'.

The African 'revolution' is not purist in so far as it is being defined by the base notion of "winner takes all" - wherever he is from. Africans are not a people predisposed to accepting the truth humbly and working with it. That is why the African who still has a lot to learn will insist he should be teaching everyone else to include those who have the experience-led knowledge he does not have.

Ahhhhh
Finally ...a cerebral economics thread


1) FDI in Nigeria is not unprecidented as of today. Prior to the burst in 2007 is when we had unprecidented FDI
2) Analysts are always on the look out for themselves. Thanks to agency theory, it should invariably connect them to their investors. In orde words you can't really trust them. They were upbeat up untill the global recession.

3) Foreign investors are mainly institutional. It is therefore easy for them to invest in risky enviroments where the potential returns outweigh the risk
4) Nigeria cannot be a successful knowledge economy for now. Knowledge economies requires certain factors to drive them. Federal character which is deeply embedde in our constitution and psyche is definitely not a driver.

5) Yes Nigeria can be an industralized country despite Asia. The reason is simple: we have a market of 180 million people and an unemployed labour force that can be recruited for peanuts. Baring energy factors, what we need is to create and effect a barrier to entry of some foreign manufactured goods. With the continous production of such goods without applying much differentiation, the cost of production will soon become competitive with international prices.

6) Nigerian present political elite is not capable of taking Nigeria close to mount Saina talkless of the promised land (I am not talking about Jonah only). Nations that are in the forefront of 'power' usually have a consistent 'intellectual' core that churns and drives its policies and visions. In UK policy makers are grafted from Oxford and Cambridge universities straight into power. In the US, harvard, Chicago Business School, etc are the bedrock of the economic team. In China, the party is made of an intellectually core where its future leaders are distilled in ideology and thought the ropes before gradually ascending to power.

If Obj had veered presidential power towards his economic team -Elrufai, Soludu etc. You would have seen the impact of 'consistent' intellectual driven policies

7) Beyond knowledge is wisdom. So 'coding' or its likes does not cut it for a knowledge economy. What do I mean? Sebi Seun get Nairaland wen get more than 1,000,000 users abi? Have you seen his icon on any local or international site. Reason is simple. He's country is not wise. So if we all become coders, oyibo go make coding a commodity and something else wil become of more value.

The reigns of power and economic growth in any country rests in the hands of coalesced critical thinkers. Things dont just happen.

Maybe thats why u hear folks talking about groups like illuminati, and Masons.
Maybe thats why people become members of groups in the first place -groups like PDP and APC

Gbawe:

Thank you. Tell Nigerians to focus on improving themselves , as regards these disgraceful fundamental deficiencies, before touting themselves "the future kings of the world" and insults is all you will get from those, like the OP, who are too egotistical to see or accept reality.

Anyone talking about "African revolution" is simply operating with a misguided sense of the reality on the ground. The "revolution" will happen.

It has even begun in my opinion but it will not unravel in a way that will please some 'black power' elements such as the OP. This is more a 'free for all' and disorganised revolution occasioned by the apathy and skill deficit of Africans that is making far too many of them totally disenfranchised 'bystanders'.

The African 'revolution' is not purist in so far as it is being defined by the base notion of "winner takes all" - wherever he is from.

While I agree with many of your points I also think much of it has been tainted by your pessimism. And it is understandable as I have come to learn that one's exposure and experiences tend to define their outlook on issues of life. People who have pretty much a smooth run in much of what they do, naturally exhibit absolute optimism. Others on the other hand might usually have the struggle before the break, hence the pessimistic outlook. So I get it. Its the hour glass thing of half full or half empty.

Africa is at the best stage it has ever been and various factors can be attributed to it.
These include the Rise of Emerging Markets in Asia and their attendant demand for more resources.
The simplified access to information as a result of the internet and mobile telephony.
The economic downturn in much of the west and the attendant flow of capital both human and financial.
The rise in the cost of food and the sudden realization that Africa possess by far the largest underutilized tracts of arable land.
And growing optimism and can do spirit amongst the the young middle class private sector African!

The last factor is the most critical in taking advantage of the others. Pessimist don't see opportunities until the optimists have taken all advantage.

While you can beat on about how Government is failing to provide, others are thinking how they can make provision and reap benefits where governments have failed to provide. That is the new thinking that is pervading the African continent and this is where hope belies. I mix with people that are championing solutions in social entrepreneurship and I get inundated regularly with so much innovative energy that I wake up feeling even more optimist as the days pass.

We should all seek to take advantage instead of waiting on the Lebanese, Americans, Europeans, Chinese and Indians. Three things would help us take that advantage and number one is Optimism. The second is Creative thinking. And the third is an eye for opportunity!

shymexx: Where's the economic revolution

Let's be honest with ourselves, bro... what we've got now is akin to consumerism albeit with higher purchasing power accrued from the exchange of our resources and funds from Africans in diaspora....

Any economic revolution without an industrial base is a failure...

Total failure
Absolute failure

Such economic revolution is like a ticking time bomb.
Economic revolution without industrialization is like a sugar coated poison;a kind of poison the devil loves giving.Its a bait for the fish.The fish happily swallows it only to find itself in a frying pan.

Its like a house on a sinking sand
Its like self deceit,a false dream.
Its like going to war with a horse whip rather than guns.
Building castles in the sky.

I can't just describe it enough.

Only the dumbest,most retarded,most stupid/foolish and dullest people talks about economic revolution without the fundamentals of wealth creation which are science,technology and industrialization.

The present consumerism especialy in Nigeria will one day burst the system, and Nigeria will be thrown back to the stone age.

Rossikk:

Sorry, but the mere fact that Africa has witnessed a 6% annual growth in GDP over the last 10 years ON ITS OWN is an economic revolution. The growth percentages prior to that have been abysmal for at least the last 100 years! This growth has led to the dramatic expansion of the middle class. You need a strong middle class for a manufacturing sector to thrive and flourish. Who will buy the goods? So, that expanded middle class/purchasing power is now attracting, among other investors, manufacturers..

As for manufacturing, this has been rising in output year on year. It is a myth that manufacturing is not growing in Africa. In fact, it is growing at nearly 5 times the rate of increase in tourism.

Read this report:

http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Whats_driving_Africas_growth_2601

Secondly, economic development is not all about manufacturing. Apart from manufacturing, dramatic growth in agriculture, telecoms, financial services, construction, the services sector account for most of the economic growth in Africa, and maintaining such growth is vital to economic success in the region.

Rossike has spoken profoundly for once. I think I agree with this your statement. However, it will still take much efforts to make things better for a sustainable economy booming we are silently experiencing in Africa..

esere826: Ahhhhh
Finally ...a cerebral economics thread


1) FDI in Nigeria is not unprecidented as of today. Prior to the burst in 2007 is when we had unprecidented FDI
2) Analysts are always on the look out for themselves. Thanks to agency theory, it should invariably connect them to their investors. In orde words you can't really trust them. They were upbeat up untill the global recession.

3) Foreign investors are mainly institutional. It is therefore easy for them to invest in risky enviroments where the potential returns outweigh the risk
4) Nigeria cannot be a successful knowledge economy for now. Knowledge economies requires certain factors to drive them. Federal character which is deeply embedde in our constitution and psyche is definitely not a driver.

5) Yes Nigeria can be an industralized country despite Asia. The reason is simple: we have a market of 180 million people and an unemployed labour force that can be recruited for peanuts. Baring energy factors, what we need is to create and effect a barrier to entry of some foreign manufactured goods. With the continous production of such goods without applying much differentiation, the cost of production will soon become competitive with international prices.

6) Nigerian present political elite is not capable of taking Nigeria close to mount Saina talkless of the promised land (I am not talking about Jonah only). Nations that are in the forefront of 'power' usually have a consistent 'intellectual' core that churns and drives its policies and visions. In UK policy makers are grafted from Oxford and Cambridge universities straight into power. In the US, harvard, Chicago Business School, etc are the bedrock of the economic team. In China, the party is made of an intellectually core where its future leaders are distilled in ideology and thought the ropes before gradually ascending to power.

If Obj had veered presidential power towards his economic team -Elrufai, Soludu etc. You would have seen the impact of 'consistent' intellectual driven policies

7) Beyond knowledge is wisdom. So 'coding' or its likes does not cut it for a knowledge economy. What do I mean? Sebi Seun get Nairaland wen get more than 1,000,000 users abi? Have you seen his icon on any local or international site. Reason is simple. He's country is not wise. So if we all become coders, oyibo go make coding a commodity and something else wil become of more value.

The reigns of power and economic growth in any country rests in the hands of coalesced critical thinkers. Things dont just happen.

Maybe thats why u hear folks talking about groups like illuminati, and Masons.
Maybe thats why people become members of groups in the first place -groups like PDP and APC

Another Brilliant post. This is the crux of the matter. We simply have too many deficiencies to address, towards making the average Nigeria a critically effective thinker, that we sound deluded thinking any "African revolution" , in this day and age and with no 'buffers' in place giving Africans an advantage, can be that in anything but name alone. As things stands, more apt to tag issues as "free for all revolution" happening on the African continent. I am seeing happening live and in HD.

PapaBrowne:

Building an industrial base is not a prerequisite anymore given the strength of globalisation! I stand to be corrected. The greatest cities in the world don't manufacture...

I repeat, the world has not yet entered a post-industrial age - contrary to what the guys at World Bank may tell us.

Certain countries that come to people's minds and appear as non-industrial are actually manufacturing success stories.

For example, look at Switzerland and Singapore. Switzerland is one of the most industrialized countries in the world although some might think it lives off the stolen money of African foolish rulers. In per capita terms, it has the highest industrial output in the world.

Singapore is also one of the 5 most industrialized economies (in terms of per capita). Finland and Sweden make up the rest of the top 5.

I repeat again, no country has so far achieved even a decent (let alone high) living standard by depending on services. The only exception is Seychelles and it has a very small population (less than 100,000 people) and exceptional resources for tourism.

Like I said earlier, what's the balance of payments surplus of knowledge-based services (I mentioned banking, consulting and engineering while you came up with Apple, Facebook and Google) as a percentage of the GDP of US or Britain? It's about 1% and 4% respectively.

In short, the world hasn't become post-industrial. Like some people have said, let's focus on the real sector. Let our government also 'enable the enablers' that would massively kick-start the real sector.

Personally, I don't think there should be (high) unemployment in our country if we get our priorities right. We are an emerging economy and should enjoy the high rates of economic growth before saturation inevitably sets in (later).

Intellectual topics like this should not be rare in the politics section not all those rubbish about biafra. Keep it up guys am really learning and enjoying this cerebral discuss

The truth of the matter is that the medium and small scale industries have to prosper before any MAJOR economic revolution can take place in Nigeria.