Obiagelli:

You are right, if fashola can't make it as vice, Osinbajo will be a fantastic choice.

mikeson12:
APC should stop deceiving themselves cos dy wont get a single vote 4rm d east.Ndi ara!

SamAfrik:
I always like Obiageli's contribution on NL, but I don't know why you are giving Ondo & Ekiti to Jonathan, governorship elections regardless. I don't think an Igbo man (sorry to say) should be on that ticket now. Anyone associated with APC has been tagged an outcast (we all know what Igbo progressives are experiencing here on NL). It shd go to either SS or SW.
As for fielding Fash. APC should undertake vigorous (& public if possible) consultation with Yoruba leaders including Christian leaders e.g Adeboye, Kumuyi, Oyedepo etc. They should only go ahead to field Fashola if Christians have been convinced of their reason to field him, otherwise they should look for other competent VP. Am afraid PDP may succeed in playing the religion card. We (yorubas) should not be overconfident and take our liberal outlook for granted.

ilugunboy:


Quite a fair analysis and prognosis.....however a lot will still be determined by the choice of VP for APC......if the party allowed itself to be hoodwinked by PDP with this religious nonsense they are emphasizing....then things may be different.

Asoozy:


Osi who?

I'm Yoruba and don't even know him. Why not just hand the key of Aso Rock to the drunken fisherman and not even bother about contesting, then?

This is not so hard, people. Th east that uses the religious mantra as a caveat and blackmail tool will not be voting Buhari so really all that should concern APC is to sensitising the Yorubas to this enemy's plan to divide our votes using religion as a bait.

Yoruba is the group to persuade here and not any other. All Buhari needs are block votes from the North and the SW. Jona can hold on to his SE/SS block.

Stop pandering to this religious bullsh1t! I am a Christian but if I know that fielding. Christian would mean automatic loss for APC because it has no popular Christian candidate in the mold of Fashola or Aregbe. I will vote five Muslim candidate whom I know have been tried and tested and are more than capable of doing a much better job than a Christian.

Yoruba cannot afford to get this wrong. Not now, not ever!

SamAfrik:

Quit politics of bitterness. If APC can't get a single vote from SE then I think it will be fair if PDP also fails to get any vote from the north and SW.

Obiagelli:

This is how the states will vote come 2015
1. Abia - Goodluck
2. Adamawa - Buhari
3. Akwa Ibom - Goodluck
4. Anambra - Goodluck
5. Bauchi - Buhari
6. Bayelsa - Goodluck
7. Benue - Goodluck
8. C/River - Goodluck
9. Delta - Goodluck
10. Enugu - Goodluck
11. Ebonyi - Goodluck
12. Gombe - Buhari
13. Imo - Goodluck
14. Jigawa - Buhari
15. Kano - Buhari
16. Kaduna - Buhari.
17. Edo - Goodluck (small margin)
18. Kebbi - Buhari
19. Borno - Buhari
20. Lagos - Buhari
21. Niger - Buhari
22. Ondo - Goodluck
23. Oyo - Buhari
24. Ogun - Buhari
25. Osun - Buhari
26. Ekiti - Goodluck
27. Plateau - Goodluck
28. Kogi -Goodluck (small margin)
29. Kwara - Buhari
30. Rivers - Goodluck (small margin)
31. Sokoto state - Buhari
32. Nassarawa - Buhari(small margin)
33 Taraba - Buhari (small margin).
34 Yobe - Buhari
35. Zamfara - Buhari
36. Katsina - Buhari
37. FCT - DICEY.... .

Asoozy:
But Adeboye and his likes are part of the problem of not just Yorubs politically but Nigeria as a whole. These religious charlatans will not want a government that will start placing tax on their dubious earnings. They need the status quo to remain so they are die hard supporters of this corrupt government. They will be unyielding towards any idea to free the masses from mind control because this is what gives them their daily bread.

Forget about persuading any religious leader, it will get us nowhere.

Yorubas either open their eyes now or forever languish under Jonathan as a result of subscribing to religious myopia.

If Yoruba were wise, it will not pander to any religious blackmail because we are religiously heterogeneous.

Obiagelli:

This is how the states will vote come 2015

7. Benue - Goodluck

Ikengawo:
The only vote that matters in this election is the igbo one. If they vote in block like the last time numerical its impossible for apc to win unless the north or west does the same. In the west it will be split as all elections following up to this in the west have never been as far a win as 60/40. This means if the north AND middle belt votes 100% against GEJ, every man woman and child, apc will win but thats the ONLY way to victory

oduaboy1:
And how many votes are this so called big boys from the southeast going to turn in for the party?You yoursef know that majority of your kinsmen are core Gej fanatic.Buhari has the north in his pockets,can we say the same for pat,okorocha and the other so called ibo bigwigs in the party.Abeg you can't give an ibo man a position as important as that when they are bringing nothing but crumbs to the table.
My opinion

Chiwude:
Your permutations are not far from the truth honestly. But, APC can turn the tide around only if they drop sentiments when presenting their Presidential/VP candidates for the election. It is no longer a secret that the north-west vote will be sliced 70/30 in favour of Buhari. While 60/40 in the North/East and 65/35 in the North-Central favouring PDP respectively. Coming down South, one should expect a 60/40 votes for APC in the South/West (even if a Yoruba candidate is fielded) the reasons are obvious. While in the South/South a collossal 98/2 votes in favour of PDP.
Now, this is the part I think GEJ would definitely want to leverage on - the South/East vote. You will recall that the major reason GEJ floored Buhari in the 2011 election was to a large extent the overwhelming block vote he got from Ndigbo nation-wide. The South-East vote as it stands will be the determinant factor to who becomes President come 2015. If Buhari plays his card well by picking an influential Igbo VP, then it would be most certain that he would be sworn in as President next year. There is no two ways about it. Within 48hrs Ndigbo seeing their son in a campaign poster for either President or VP would surely reconsider where their interest lies. A vigorous campaign in the S/East by the suppose Igbo VP and the APC entourage will do the magic swinging the votes in Buhari's favour and dismantling GEJ believed strong-hold. Opinions that would mould the voting pattern of Ndigbo would be shaped to where lies its interest and the feasibility of an Igbo president in the years to come, unless GEJ decide not handing over to a northerner and secretly signs a pact to pick an Igbo man for President come 2019 - an idea I think he hasn't considered yet, due to the number of ass lickers with the tag 'Igbo Leaders' who have decided to selfishly sell their birthright for the spoils in government (Peter Obi inclusive).

Chiwude:
Your permutations are not far from the truth honestly. But, APC can turn the tide around only if they drop sentiments when presenting their Presidential/VP candidates for the election. It is no longer a secret that the north-west vote will be sliced 70/30 in favour of Buhari. While 60/40 in the North/East and 65/35 in the North-Central favouring PDP respectively. Coming down South, one should expect a 60/40 votes for APC in the South/West (even if a Yoruba candidate is fielded) the reasons are obvious. While in the South/South a collossal 98/2 votes in favour of PDP.
Now, this is the part I think GEJ would definitely want to leverage on - the South/East vote. You will recall that the major reason GEJ floored Buhari in the 2011 election was to a large extent the overwhelming block vote he got from Ndigbo nation-wide. The South-East vote as it stands will be the determinant factor to who becomes President come 2015. If Buhari plays his card well by picking an influential Igbo VP, then it would be most certain that he would be sworn in as President next year. There is no two ways about it. Within 48hrs Ndigbo seeing their son in a campaign poster for either President or VP would surely reconsider where their interest lies. A vigorous campaign in the S/East by the suppose Igbo VP and the APC entourage will do the magic swinging the votes in Buhari's favour and dismantling GEJ believed strong-hold. Opinions that would mould the voting pattern of Ndigbo would be shaped to where lies its interest and the feasibility of an Igbo president in the years to come, unless GEJ decide not handing over to a northerner and secretly signs a pact to pick an Igbo man for President come 2019 - an idea I think he hasn't considered yet, due to the number of ass lickers with the tag 'Igbo Leaders' who have decided to selfishly sell their birthright for the spoils in government (Peter Obi inclusive).

ilugunboy:


Very mischievous post.

You are a PDP agent.

Asoozy:


He must think everyone drinks from his f00lish stream.

ilugunboy:


How many states can Okorocha guarantee for APC.? The reason APC will field Buhari is the number of states his candidature can bring to the party.

Fashola on his side can guarantee the whole of SW for APC.

In the case that religion will be the ultimate deciding factor for the VP.....SW will still be called upon to present a xtian candidate.....Prof Yemi Osinbajo will get it.

Obiagelli:

This is how the states will vote come 2015
1. Abia - Goodluck
2. Adamawa - Buhari
3. Akwa Ibom - Goodluck
4. Anambra - Goodluck
5. Bauchi - Buhari
6. Bayelsa - Goodluck
7. Benue - Goodluck
8. C/River - Goodluck
9. Delta - Goodluck
10. Enugu - Goodluck
11. Ebonyi - Goodluck
12. Gombe - Buhari
13. Imo - Goodluck
14. Jigawa - Buhari
15. Kano - Buhari
16. Kaduna - Buhari.
17. Edo - Goodluck (small margin)
18. Kebbi - Buhari
19. Borno - Buhari
20. Lagos - Buhari
21. Niger - Buhari
22. Ondo - Goodluck
23. Oyo - Buhari
24. Ogun - Buhari
25. Osun - Buhari
26. Ekiti - Goodluck
27. Plateau - Goodluck
28. Kogi -Goodluck (small margin)
29. Kwara - Buhari
30. Rivers - Goodluck (small margin)
31. Sokoto state - Buhari
32. Nassarawa - Buhari(small margin)
33 Taraba - Buhari (small margin).
34 Yobe - Buhari
35. Zamfara - Buhari
36. Katsina - Buhari
37. FCT - DICEY....
As we can see Buhari has 20 states as against
Goodluck's 16 states and if considering that the larger
population of the electorates reside in the North and
Southwest it stands to reason that Buhari will be our
next president, but that is if the contest is going to be
free and fair.

ilugunboy:


Very mischievous post.

You are a PDP agent.

Chiwude:
I doubt you know Okorocha's antecedents. Only a flint idea of it, will make you change your mind. I am not holding brief for Rochas, but if you check his political profile you will understand that he towers far above a Fashola. In the whole of the South-East you will find few politicians in the mould of Okorocha that commands the respect of electorates. The position of Vice-Presidency is even less a turf for him. Field him in any election and you see his rivals get jittery even before the election is conducted.

ilugunboy:


The kind of respect he commands even here on NL?

ilugunboy:


The kind of respect he commands among his folks even here on NL?

If rigging is reduced to the barest minimum ( you can't completely eliminate it).....a buhari / Fashola ticket is a done deal for Aso Rock and enough to scamper GEJ back to Otuoke.

The middle belt is the swing zone and if APC can pick Nasssarawa, Kwara, Kogi and Niger.....let the SS and SE states returns 99% votes for GEJ.....it's a futile effort.

Chiwude:
Forget the people you see on nairaland. A faceless forum as nairaland is just a gathering of political praise singers. All you need to do is go to the grassroot and do the investigation. A persons popularity cannot be measured by few agents who come online to mislead people into believing lies and propaganda.

wirinet:
Fielding Okorocha as a vice presidential candidiate would be political suicide for APC. The Igbos hate APC so much that they would not vote APC even if they give them the presidential ticket. APC should forget South East votes, and concentrate on the South west, North east and north west. I think Amaechi would be a good option and he is has some popularity in the south south and he is liked in the south west.

Chiwude:
One thing about you people is that you don't seem to learn from history. This remind me of someone who made reference to the same statement you made above in 1993. And we were all witness to how events finally unfolded. APC cannot make that same mistake.