Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by Nobody: 4:53pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
ABUJA (Reuters) - Not many presidents could survive three multi-billion dollar government oil corruption scandals and a wave of cold-blooded killings and kidnappings of civilians by Islamist militants still holding hundreds of schoolgirls after six months.
Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan has not only survived, he will seek reelection in February stronger than ever, after five years in a job no one expected him to get.
Jonathan's support base within the ruling party is now unchallenged, a rare feat for the often fractious People's Democratic Party (PDP), while the main opposition APC coalition is split between two contestants for the presidency.
The government announced a ceasefire with the Islamist Boko Haram rebels 10 days ago, ahead of talks in neighboring Chad to secure the release of more than 200 girls seized from Chibok village in April in an abduction that shocked the world.
If the talks are successful it would help the president's image. But nothing has come of it yet and violence has since surged, with dozens more children kidnapped.
Jonathan has defended his overstretched military's efforts against a Boko Haram insurgency that has killed thousands. In the case of the failure to free the schoolgirls, he has said any rescue attempt would endanger their lives.
Meanwhile, apart from the security challenges, his government also has been beset by corruption allegations.
A parliamentary report detailed a $6.8 billion fuel subsidy fraud. A government investigation revealed corrupt cut price crude sales to oil majors that cost the treasury billions. And a former central banker has reported that between $10 and billion $20 billion had been diverted by the state oil firm over 18 months between 2012 and last year.
The government pledged to investigate the first two cases and denied the third.
Last month, South Africa froze two payments from the Jonathan administration totaling $15 million that it suspected were for illegal arms deals. Nigeria said the deals were legal.
Yet it is a testament to Nigeria's complex mix of ethnic rivalry, patronage and intense competition for centralized oil wealth in Africa's top producer that Jonathan can brush off these various scandals and attract a high level of support.
WEAKER OPPOSITION
Jonathan, a Christian southerner, was an accidental president, taking over in 2009 after President Umaru Yar'adua, a Muslim from the north, died from illness.
When Jonathan was elected to his own term in 2011, many in the north resented his decision to run, believing he had torn up an unwritten rule that power should rotate between mainly Muslim north and mainly Christian south every two terms.
Former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, who lost to Jonathan in 2011, and defected PDP ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar are vying for the opposition APC ticket. Both launched bids in the past month, focusing on security and graft.
Roddy Barclay, senior Africa analyst at Control Risks, a political risk consultancy, sees two "principle factors for Jonathan's robust position in spite of the scandals and failings which have rocked his government".
"Firstly, the primacy of money and patronage in determining electoral outcomes in Nigeria," means an incumbent gets a huge advantage, and second, "the opposition lacks steadfast unity".
That marks a big change from less than a year ago. In December it was the PDP that was in crisis. Thirty seven lawmakers defected to the APC that month, demolishing the PDP's lower house majority. Rotimi Amaechi, powerful governor of the oil hub state of Rivers, also defected.
The same month, Jonathan's mentor and PDP Godfather, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, wrote a scathing letter saying it would be "fatally morally flawed" for Jonathan to seek re-election in 2015 because of corruption under his rule. Jonathan called the intervention "unjustifiable and indecorous".
Ten months on and the APC has failed to capitalize. It has not agreed on a presidential candidate and several disillusioned APC figures have flipped to the PDP, underscoring the fluid nature of Nigerian party politics.
They include popular two-term ex-governor of Kano state Ibrahim Shakarau, a Buhari rival, and former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu, denying the APC a strong anti-graft platform, although Buhari still has strong anti-corruption credentials.
"MODEST EXPECTATIONS"
In June, the APC then lost a governorship election in southwestern Ekiti state to the ruling party.
"The opposition is cannibalizing itself. Its top elites are vying against one another. That's a glide path for President Jonathan," said Eurasia Group's Philippe de Pontet.
"Had the APC sustained its momentum from 5-6 months ago ... we'd be in a different world."
On Dec 2, the dynamic could shift when the party picks its candidate. Buhari earned a reputation for cracking down on corruption during his time in power in 1983-85, and most Nigerians agree he did not use the post to enrich himself, but it is not clear whether he would win votes from APC supporters in the south.
The emotional conflict felt by Barrister Isaac Matthew illustrates Jonathan's staying power.
Driven by the plight of the schoolgirls to leave a court case he was defending to join protesters demanding more action to rescue them, he says Jonathan bears ultimate responsibility since "leaders are supposed to protect their people".
"I'm still probably going to vote for him," he said, citing Jonathan's concentration on power reform and some works Matthew said had greatly improved the road network.
"The opposition has no credible candidate to stand against him. Not Atiku (Abubakar) and not Buhari."
The power sector is under improvement, but that may not draw votes since the supply in one of the world's most electricity-starved countries has fallen in the short term.
Many voters are likely to see the Boko Haram insurgency, which only affects the remote northeast apart from occasional bomb attacks in the capital or other cities, as just one problem in their large, diverse country.
"Expectations in the electorate are fairly modest and they are hugely disenfranchised, despite ... years of civilian rule," said Antony Goldman, head of Nigeria-focused PM Consulting.
"You don't need to be popular or successful in conventional terms to win an election in Nigeria," he said, although he added that no president had managed to stay popular after four years in office, and the APC had yet to present a clear alternative.
EBOLA NOT A FACTOR SO FAR
One issue that has not yet played an important role is Ebola, rampant in some other West African states. A mixture of luck and impressively decisive action has meant Africa's most populous country was able to avoid a potentially devastating epidemic after a Liberian brought it to the megacity of Lagos, but the virus could still come back to plague Nigeria, with unpredictable political consequences.
Jonathan's assumed decision to run has widened a divide between elites in Nigeria's south and north because of a feeling in the north that it is still their "turn" to rule.
That makes violence likely, especially if the poll is close. In 2011, more than 800 were killed and 65,000 displaced in three days of violence after Jonathan beat Buhari in the poll.
If Buhari, now 71, gets the ticket but loses the election again, his supporters may have less reason to end the mayhem so quickly if they sense he has missed his last chance.
(This story has been refiled to add missing letter to 'beset', paragraph eight)
(Editing by Philippa Fletcher and Peter Graff) http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0IG1E220141027?irpc=932 33 Likes 8 Shares |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by MuguliciousMUGU: 4:58pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
Gej till 2019
Haters will hate backbitters will backbite mockers will mock but Gej will win the election and become the best president nigerian ever had...
GEJ TILL 2019
Long live Jonathan! Long Live Nigeria!! Long Live Nairaland!!! 246 Likes 11 Shares |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by Nobody: 4:58pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
Reuters couldn't be more right 70 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by olapluto(m): 4:59pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
The article, if anything, highlights the gullibility of Nigerians. Jonathan is clearly seen as a no-good, weakling, who is properly described as 'accidental'. The article also clearly states that Jonathan has no support from Nigerians. However, he has his hands in the treasury, and can buy enough votes to win him election. That remains to be seen. "Expectations in the electorate are fairly modest and they are hugely disenfranchised, despite ... years of civilian rule," There you go PDP. PDP since 1999 has lowered our expectation of democracy, left Nigerians disenfranchised. How this translate to good news for GEJ is beyond me. But again...the sadder Nigerians are, the happier PDP goons become. 252 Likes 23 Shares |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by Nobody: 5:03pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
I'll take the analysis of the world's top news agency against e warriors "I'm still probably going to vote for him," he said, citing Jonathan's concentration on power reform and some works Matthew said had greatly improved the road network.
"The opposition has no credible candidate to stand against him. Not Atiku (Abubakar) and not Buhari."
The power sector is under improvement, but that may not draw votes since the supply in one of the world's most electricity-starved countries has fallen in the short term.
Many voters are likely to see the Boko Haram insurgency, which only affects the remote northeast apart from occasional bomb attacks in the capital or other cities, as just one problem in their large, diverse country. 38 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by omenka(m): 5:07pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
Lmao!!! See what they have come to celebrate; Reuters' prediction!!! By fire by force, they must find something for someone who's got absolutely nothing to be sold by! I can post here dozens of writeups by foreign media indicting Jonathan and his government, predicting his imminent defeat in the forthcoming elections!! These saTANs are getting really desperate!! 124 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by hazyfm: 5:09pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
[size=48pt]LAME NEWS[/size] 58 Likes |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by politricks: 5:10pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
Any sensible person who can read between the lines will know that This article is more of an insult to Nigerians. 184 Likes 11 Shares |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by Raiders: 5:11pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
The article is right.Nigeria politics is not yet advance for choosing their leaders based on real issues. We operate a stomach infrastructures type of democrazy mixed with tribalism and religion. In Nigeria politics, the candidate with the the highest amount of money and power usually win. GEJ might not be popular in terms of his leadership right now but he is going to win because people don't vote based on the real issues affecting the country. Nigeria democrazy still have a long way to go 49 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by Nobody: 5:13pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
Even Tinubu knows this!
The question is; is it right for the country? 5 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by ISpiksDaTroof: 5:13pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
TheImp: ABUJA (Reuters) - Not many presidents could survive three multi-billion dollar government oil corruption scandals and a wave of cold-blooded killings and kidnappings of civilians by Islamist militants still holding hundreds of schoolgirls aftersix months.Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan has not only survived, he will seek reelection in February stronger than ever, after five years in a job no one expected him to get.Jonathan's support base within the ruling party is now unchallenged, a rare feat for the often fractious People's Democratic Party (PDP), while the main opposition APC coalition is split between two contestants for the presidency.The government announced a ceasefire with the Islamist Boko Haram rebels 10 days ago, ahead oftalks in neighboring Chad to secure the release of more than 200 girls seized from Chibok village in April in an abduction that shocked the world.If the talks are successful it would help the president's image. But nothing has come of it yet and violence has since surged, with dozens more children kidnapped.Jonathan has defended his overstretched military's efforts against a Boko Haram insurgency that has killed thousands. In the case of the failure to free the schoolgirls, he has said any rescue attempt would endanger their lives.Meanwhile, apart from the security challenges, his government also has been beset by corruption allegations.A parliamentary report detailed a $6.8 billion fuel subsidy fraud. A government investigation revealed corrupt cut price crude sales to oil majors that cost the treasury billions. And a former central banker has reported that between$10 and billion $20 billion had been diverted by thestate oil firm over 18 months between 2012 and last year.The government pledged to investigate the first two cases and denied the third.Last month, South Africa froze two payments fromthe Jonathan administration totaling $15 million that it suspected were for illegal arms deals. Nigeria said the deals were legal.Yet it is a testament to Nigeria's complex mix of ethnic rivalry, patronage and intense competition for centralized oil wealth in Africa's top producer that Jonathan can brush off these various scandals and attract a high level of support. WEAKER OPPOSITION Jonathan, a Christian southerner, was an accidental president, taking over in 2009 after President Umaru Yar'adua, a Muslim from the north, died from illness.When Jonathan was elected to his own term in 2011, many in the north resented his decision to run, believing he had torn up an unwritten rule that power should rotate between mainly Muslim northand mainly Christian south every two terms.Former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, who lost to Jonathan in 2011, and defected PDP ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar are vying for the opposition APC ticket. Both launched bids in the past month, focusing on security and graft.Roddy Barclay, senior Africa analyst at Control Risks, a political risk consultancy, sees two"principle factors for Jonathan's robust position in spite of the scandals and failings which have rocked his government"."Firstly, the primacy of money and patronage in determining electoral outcomes in Nigeria," meansan incumbent gets a huge advantage, and second,"the opposition lacks steadfast unity".That marks a big change from less than a year ago. In December it was the PDP that was in crisis. Thirty seven lawmakers defected to the APC that month, demolishing the PDP's lower house majority. Rotimi Amaechi, powerful governor of the oil hub state of Rivers, also defected.The same month, Jonathan's mentor and PDP Godfather, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, wrotea scathing letter saying it would be "fatally morallyflawed" for Jonathan to seek re-election in 2015 because of corruption under his rule. Jonathan called the intervention "unjustifiable and indecorous".Ten months on and the APC has failed to capitalize. It has not agreed on a presidential candidate and several disillusioned APC figures have flipped to the PDP, underscoring the fluid nature of Nigerian party politics.They include popular two-term ex-governor of Kano state Ibrahim Shakarau, a Buhari rival, and former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu, denying the APC a strong anti-graft platform, although Buhari still has strong anti-corruption credentials. "MODEST EXPECTATIONS" In June, the APC then lost a governorship election in southwestern Ekiti state to the ruling party."The opposition is cannibalizing itself. Its top elites are vying against one another. That's a glidepath for President Jonathan," said Eurasia Group's Philippe de Pontet."Had the APC sustained its momentum from 5-6 months ago ... we'd be in a different world."On Dec 2, the dynamic could shift when the party picks its candidate. Buhari earned a reputation for cracking down on corruption during his time in power in 1983-85, and most Nigerians agree he did not use the post to enrich himself, but it is not clear whether he would win votes from APC supporters in the south.The emotional conflict felt by Barrister Isaac Matthew illustrates Jonathan's staying power.Driven by the plight of the schoolgirls to leave a court case he was defending to join protesters demanding more action to rescue them, he says Jonathan bears ultimate responsibility since"leaders are supposed to protect their people"."I'm still probably going to vote for him," he said, citing Jonathan's concentration on power reform and some works Matthew said had greatly improved the road network."The opposition has no credible candidate to stand against him. Not Atiku (Abubakar) and not Buhari."The power sector is under improvement, but that may not draw votes since the supply in one of the world's most electricity-starved countries has fallen in the short term.Many voters are likely to see the Boko Haram insurgency, which only affects the remote northeast apart from occasional bomb attacks in the capital or other cities, as just one problem in their large, diverse country."Expectations in the electorate are fairly modest and they are hugely disenfranchised, despite ... years of civilian rule," said Antony Goldman, head of Nigeria-focused PM Consulting."You don't need to be popular or successful in conventional terms to win an election in Nigeria," he said, although he added that no president had managed to stay popular after four years in office, and the APC had yet to present a clear alternative. EBOLA NOT A FACTOR SO FAR One issue that has not yet played an important role is Ebola, rampant in some other West African states. A mixture of luck and impressively decisiveaction has meant Africa's most populous country was able to avoid a potentially devastating epidemic after a Liberian brought it to the megacity of Lagos, but the virus could still come back to plague Nigeria, with unpredictable politicalconsequences.Jonathan's assumed decision to run has widened a divide between elites in Nigeria's south and north because of a feeling in the north that it is stilltheir "turn" to rule.That makes violence likely, especially if the poll is close. In 2011, more than 800 were killed and 65,000 displaced in three days of violence after Jonathan beat Buhari in the poll.If Buhari, now 71, gets the ticket but loses the election again, his supporters may have less reason to end the mayhem so quickly if they sensehe has missed his last chance.(This story has been refiled to add missing letter to 'beset', paragraph eight)(Editing by Philippa Fletcher and Peter Graff) http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0IG1E220141027?irpc=932 You do know that Reuters basically called Nigerians ignorant, backwards and uncivilized with this article, right? Especially with the first 3 paragraphs. 96 Likes 4 Shares |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by omenka(m): 5:15pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
This article, if taken from a critical angle, is an indictment on Jonathan and his admin. It reveals the massive corruption under his regime (line four I think, regarding the oil industry) and his incompetence in putting an end to the incidents of rampaging terrorists. 63 Likes |
|
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by omenka(m): 5:18pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
ISpiksDaTroof: You do know that Reuters basically called Nigerians ignorant, backwards and uncivilized with this article, right? Especially with the first 3 paragraphs. They don't know!!! If anything, this should be stopped from circulation. 37 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by politricks: 5:20pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
omenka: This article, if taken from a critical angle, this article is an indictment on Jonathan and his admin. It reveals the massive corruption under his regime (line four I think, regarding the oil industry) and his incompetence in putting an end to the incidents of rampaging terrorists. And yet TANdroids are here celebrating mediocrity. 57 Likes |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by olapluto(m): 5:21pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
Meanwhile, apart from the security challenges, his government also has been beset by corruption allegations.A parliamentary report detailed a $6.8 billion fuel subsidy fraud. A government investigation revealed corrupt cut price crude sales to oil majors that cost the treasury billions. And a former central banker has reported that between$10 and billion $20 billion had been diverted by thestate oil firm over 18 months between 2012 and last year.The government pledged to investigate the first two cases and denied the third.Last month, South Africa froze two payments fromthe Jonathan administration totaling $15 million that it suspected were for illegal arms deals. Nigeria said the deals were legal.Yet it is a testament to Nigeria's complex mix of ethnic rivalry, patronage and intense competition for centralized oil wealth in Africa's top producer that Jonathan can brush off these various scandals and attract a high level of support. Technical knock out of Nigerians who support GEJ. 61 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by Nobody: 5:21pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
ISpiksDaTroof: You do know that Reuters basically called Nigerians ignorant, backwards and uncivilized with this article, right? Especially with the first 3 paragraphs. don't tell me you quoted the whole bullshit when I was even finding it to read it all? *ihatelongposts* 7 Likes |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by Liamm(m): 5:22pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
Buhari till feb 2015. Goodluck jonathan till 2019 29 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by ZKOSOSO(m): 5:22pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
omenka: Lmao!!! See what they have come to celebrate; Reuters' prediction!!!
By fire by force, they must find something for someone whose got absolutely nothing to be sold by!
I can post here dozens of writeups by foreign media articles indicting Jonathan and his government, predicting his imminent defeat in the forthcoming elections!!
These saTANs are getting really desperate!! I have placed order for the victory champaign of GEJ come feb 14! He cannot loose!! Cos GEJ is born Lucky!! Not under my watch!! Hahaha! 35 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by Nobody: 5:25pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
ZKOSOSO:
I have placed order for the victory champaign of GEJ come feb 14! He cannot loose!! Cos GEJ is born Lucky!! Not under my watch!! Hahaha! Nigerians will vote for a performing and competent president and not a lucky president come 2015. Enough is enough!! 78 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by datguru: 5:26pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
FIXED |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by cyril10(m): 5:27pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
omenka: This article, if taken from a critical angle, this article is an indictment on Jonathan and his admin. It reveals the massive corruption under his regime (line four I think, regarding the oil industry) and his incompetence in putting an end to the incidents of rampaging terrorists. Always biting himself over GEJ matter, please take it easy abeg. 27 Likes |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by Nobody: 5:27pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
good news 3 Likes |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by richardjemedafe1(m): 5:27pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
AM JUst Passing....
Traveling from LIB TO FB.When I reach NL ahhh stopped to buy. MOI,Akara,Eggs and lacasera...... Oya (OGA S**n Come give me #200 moi-moi.#900 OKpa, 15 Egg5 And 6 lacasera) 2 Likes |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by JIMOSKI(m): 5:27pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
He already won! 15 Likes |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by Nobody: 5:28pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
Obinoscopy,don't tell me you moved this bullshit to FP. This is an insult to Nigerians! 37 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by ISpiksDaTroof: 5:28pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
|
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by Akshow: 5:29pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
Sadly but true. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by ISpiksDaTroof: 5:29pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
ZKOSOSO:
I have placed order for the victory champaign of GEJ come feb 14! He cannot loose!! Cos GEJ is born Lucky!! Not under my watch!! Hahaha! You can't spell "Champagne", you can't spell "lose" yet you're celebrating victory. You need to get your priorities straight. 60 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by merieam16(f): 5:29pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
I don hear |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by uken73(m): 5:29pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
Looks like a reasonably objective description of the Nigerian political situation. Many had hoped for an alternative and had initially counted on the APC for that, but the expected saviour seems to dance to the same kind of tunes of the PDP even worse is the fact that through their utterances they've created a notion that they are so desperate and wouldn't mind undermining the govt at the cost of national interest just to provide reason to be voted for. Where does that place the electorates? Choosing between two evils. And the PDP evil seems to have an upper hand based on incumbency. 9 Likes |
Re: Reuters UK Predict GEJ Victory In 2015 by ilotriouzAY(m): 5:30pm On Oct 29, 2014 |
Afta reading dis piece,I believed it painted GEJ in bad light Am sure dey must av talked to polithievians in his government... 15 Likes |