I have been listening to comments and reading analyses on the 2015 presidential election with rapt attention. There is nothing unanimous in the predictions and projections, but I am sensing a trend in the analyses: that if the All Progressives Congress (APC) fields Maj. General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) against President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), then it will be a piece of cake for the former head of state. A Buhari supporter, in a recent newspaper interview, said Buhari's votes in the North plus Bola Tinubu's votes in the south-west equal automatic victory for APC.


Slow down a bit, guys. I have no intention of raining on anyone's parade or pouring cold water on exciting calculations, but analyses do not have to be this simplistic. If the history and politics of elections in Nigeria are to be of any use in these postulations, the safest bet will be to say there are still many rivers to cross. My intention today is to draw attention to several facts and factors that will be at play during the elections. Many things are still taking shape; opportunities and threats still exist for the PDP and the APC. It is too early in the day to arrive at definite conclusions.


Let us look into some of the assumptions one by one. The first is that Buhari will clear the votes in the core North and Tinubu will deliver the South-west votes in one basket. That Buhari will win in the core North has never been in dispute ─ he has done so consistently since 2003. It is unthinkable that he will not win there. However, I'm not sure Tinubu can clear the South-west the same way Buhari could do in the core North. It appears many commentators have not been monitoring recent developments in the South-west. To start with, two of the six states ─ Ekiti and Ondo ─ are now in the hands of PDP. That is important to note.


Meanwhile, the APC is getting weaker in Oyo state. The three APC senators have left the party; the death of Alhaji Alao Arisekola has dealt some body blow on Governor Abiola Ajimobi; former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala (PDP) is on a rebound; former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, who controls large portions of Ibadan, is complicating things for APC. In Ogun, Governor Ibikunle Amosun is under fire from within and without.  Chief Olusegun Osoba, in whose camp the Ogun APC senators and house members are, is playing hard ball with Amosun. The PDP, meanwhile, is bringing back its break-up groups and rebuilding in the state.


In simple words, Oyo and Ogun have become very shaky and it is a bit tenuous to assume the South-west will vote en bloc for APC in 2015. I may well be wrong, but I am seeing a split of the zone's 13.5 million votes. The South-west, in my opinion, is neither here nor there yet. No assumptions should be made and no conclusions should be reached yet, certainly not in October 2014. Of course, the APC is not sleeping and is also hoping to gain from the fall-outs from PDP's possible slips in the coming weeks. But South-west does not look like one-way traffic as at today.


Meanwhile, there is also this assumption that Buhari ─ or APC ─ does not need the South-east and South-south (SESS). That is ridiculous. First, it is not good for Buhari's CV that he has never won in any Southern state since he launched his presidential bid in 2003. Not one state. And it is also not good political strategy to downplay SESS. There are 11 states in these two geo-political zones. The APC calculation may be that the South-south would rather have a "son of the soil" as president. The South-east, it seems, is fully joined in matrimony to South-south under Jonathan's presidency. But does that mean giving up without a fight?


Let us now reverse the case. Jonathan, despite knowing that the core North will be a difficult hunting ground for him, is putting up a decent fight. He is working to secure as many votes as possible in Buhari's territory. The president has gathered many strong politicians to his side. Now let us do some basic calculations. SESS has 17 million votes combined. Buhari's home zone, North-west, has 18.7 million registered voters. If Jonathan bites off as much as 30-40% of the votes in the North-west (which he did in 2011) while Buhari does poorly in SESS (like before), Jonathan would clearly gain more than Buhari in the candidates' home zones.


Jonathan's chances, in the meantime, are also bright among the Northern minorities. It could be minority solidarity, I can't say. The North-central has 11 million names on the voter register. Jonathan's reconciliation with former military, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, and the governor of Niger State, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, could help him in Niger state. Kogi, Plateau, Nasarawa and Benue would ordinarily back Jonathan. But Kwara, which supported him in 2011, is now uncertain, with the godfather, Bukola Saraki, relocating to APC. Buhari will fancy his chances in Kwara, that is if Saraki can ward off his PDP foes, who look very formidable. In truth, Kwara now looks more like a tight corner for both parties.


The North-east, boasting of 11 million registered voters, could be a mixed bag. Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe and Borno have always gone to Buhari, while Taraba and Adamawa seem to have a thing for Jonathan. But something significant has changed in Borno: Ali Modu Sheriff is now in PDP. Since 1999, Borno has always faced any direction Sheriff pointed to, and his defection must be considered a loss to APC. I was not surprised at APC's reaction when Sheriff left: Borno's 2.5 million votes are the nation's fifth largest after Lagos (5.4m), Kano (4.7m), Kaduna (3.7m) and Katsina (2.9m). Being Buhari's familiar hunting ground, however, Borno could still be game for him.


Before I shut down my computer, I would like to maintain that unlike many observers and analysts, I foresee a very competitive election. And, I think, four months to the polls, we should avoid jumping into certain conclusions. One of the major failings of the opposition is that they underrated Jonathan's ability to respond to the momentum they gained last year. Before they could settle down to savour the heavyweight defections from PDP to APC, the Jonathan camp had launched a counter offensive, in addition to benefitting from crises arising from the consolidation process of APC.


Therefore, dear readers, with what I have seen in Nigeria in the last few months, and what I understand about the dynamics of our electoral politics, I would conclude that the day is still young.  For the two leading parties, there are still many hurdles to clear. Let the game begin!
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/jonathan-and-the-2015-calculations/192278/

Instructive considering that ex This day editor and TheCable owner is considered a Buharist

go Gej go Gej till 2019

Unless one wants to sound deluded, this election appears to be won alrealy.

@ Ops, the southwest vote is basically decided. PDP already has Ekiti and Ondo. The real dramatist personel in Ogun & Oyo state are already in PDP camp, so best case for APC is 30% vote. The pendulum in Osun is currently unpredicatable while PDP will tapped to the Igbo populace in Lagos. Overall, south west vote will portend 60:40 in favor of PDP as situation currently stand. SS and SE, best case for APC is 90:10 in favour of PDP. North Central is historically a PDP grasroot region. Best APC can have is 30%. NE and NW, I will agree with your analysis. However I will give a modest projection of 75:25 in favour of the APC. Overall, I see the PDP having over 65% of the vote

Guber

SW- Ogun and Oyo is gone from the APC, Edo is neither here nor there. APC will definetly lose Imo and Rivers state. Sokoto is gone to the APC

If you dont agree with my analysis or opinion, please do not use vain/uncouth langauage while quoting me

Regards

four months to go

culata:
go Gej go Gej till 2019

dis can be happen if 9ja be his mama room. god forbid gej til mama peace learn how to speak good english

The writer is underestimating the pull of the Running mate to Buhari can have on the election

His analysis might be right if its only Buhari vs Jonathan but when a popular Yoruba politician like Fashola is a VP candidate under Buhari that would change the dynamics.

Ondo And Ekiti state from being PDP It wont also stop these Yoruba states from voting "OUR SON". Just like Rivers, Imo would have a strong APC presence, yet the "OUR SON" judgment would win those places overwhelmingly for Jonathan in the presidential election

In 2011, we had situations when Northern states voted PDP for governorship and next saturday voted overwhelmingly for Buhari in the Presidential

BTW how is Ondo PDP? only the governor decamped and the PDP in the state is already in a mini crisis, Labor in the state is orphaned

This is d most pragmatic and incisive analysis I have read in recent political dancehall. Its got a very high degree of objectivity. Lets read and listen to likes of OP. He kept it open and without prejudice. Cheeers bro.

U cant eat ur cake and hav it back

Come rain come shine, it will always be GEJ till 2019.

Very balance balanced analysis. Indeed the race for the Presidency will be tight, but I strongly believe GEJ will prevail.

[quote author=raumdeuter post=27561754]The writer is underestimating the pull of the Running mate to Buhari can have on the election

His analysis might be right if its only Buhari vs Jonathan but when a popular Yoruba politician like Fashola is a VP candidate under Buhari that would change the dynamics.

Ondo And Ekiti state from being PDP It wont also stop these Yoruba states from voting "OUR SON". Just like Rivers, Imo would have a strong APC presence, yet the "OUR SON" judgment would win those places overwhelmingly for Jonathan in the presidential election

In 2011, we had situations when Northern states voted PDP for governorship and next saturday voted overwhelmingly for Buhari in the Presidential

BTW how is Ondo PDP? only the governor decamped and the PDP in the state is already in a mini crisis, Labor in the state is orphaned


The OP has forgotten dat all things being equal. GEJ may not get the number of votes he got in SE and SS in d last election, because of the combined presidential and national Assembly election. for instance GEJ got over a million vote in anambara while in the last Governorship election, the total votes cast was just a little over 300,000 in dat state. For the fact that the total number of votes dat will be cast in any state for the national Assembly shall be equal to the total of the presidential election. This will make it very difficult for GEJ to be allotted bloated figures.

zantama05:
dis can be happen if 9ja be his mama room. god forbid gej til mama peace learn how to speak good english

good or bad english dy r dere already

SenseiX:
Instructive considering that ex This day editor and TheCable owner is considered a Buharist

exactly, Simon Kolawole is an excellent columnist, his Buhari love notwithstanding. His analysis is the most incisive yet

TheImp:

exactly, Simon Kolawole is an excellent columnist, his Buhari love notwithstanding. His analysis is the most incisive yet

indeed

hayokunleoni:
Unless one wants to sound deluded, this election appears to be won alrealy.

@ Ops, the southwest vote is basically decided. PDP already has Ekiti and Ondo. The real dramatist personel in Ogun & Oyo state are already in PDP camp, so best case for APC is 30% vote. The pendulum in Osun is currently unpredicatable while PDP will tapped to the Igbo populace in Lagos. Overall, south west vote will portend 60:40 in favor of PDP as situation currently stand. SS and SE, best case for APC is 90:10 in favour of PDP. North Central is historically a PDP grasroot region. Best APC can have is 30%. NE and NW, I will agree with your analysis. However I will give a modest projection of 75:25 in favour of the APC. Overall, I see the PDP having over 65% of the vote

Guber

SW- Ogun and Oyo is gone from the APC, Edo is neither here nor there. APC will definetly lose Imo and Rivers state. Sokoto is gone to the APC

If you dont agree with my analysis or opinion, please do not use vain/uncouth langauage while quoting me

Regards

DAYDREAMING

.

The VP choice of GMB will determine if he becomes the President in Feb 2015 or not, and not all about this permutation of the OP.

h

.

If we check the history of electioneering in south west, we would see that the people there will vote for whoever will give them good governance. The Yorubas voted for Jonathan simply because they thought he had a poor background and could identify with the common people. He has proven them wrong by his bad governance. Buhari is fast becoming a viable option to many people in SW. The only places Jonathan stands any chance are Ekiti and Ondo; not because of his personality but because of Mimiko and Fayose.

raumdeuter:
The writer is underestimating the pull of the Running mate to Buhari can have on the election

His analysis might be right if its only Buhari vs Jonathan but when a popular Yoruba politician like Fashola is a VP candidate under Buhari that would change the dynamics.

Ondo And Ekiti state from being PDP It wont also stop these Yoruba states from voting "OUR SON". Just like Rivers, Imo would have a strong APC presence, yet the "OUR SON" judgment would win those places overwhelmingly for Jonathan in the presidential election

In 2011, we had situations when Northern states voted PDP for governorship and next saturday voted overwhelmingly for Buhari in the Presidential

BTW how is Ondo PDP? only the governor decamped and the PDP in the state is already in a mini crisis, Labor in the state is orphaned

Fashola will not contest even as running mate