Jarus:
I agree with you on who will win in all but Kaduna and Edo. I think GEJ will clinch Edo while Buhari will clinch Kaduna.

I also slightly disagree with the percentages.

Lagos is a tight one, but I have given APC 57%, PDP 43% in an analysis I did elsewhere.

Your 80% turnout is however far from realistic. No presidential election has seen more than 60% turn-out in Nigeria. 2015 won't be different, if not worse.

I have been corrected on that of Kaduna. Just that I don't think it's necessary to change it though.

I still believe Buhari will edge Edo.

My percentages in Lagos is not far from yours still.

The 80% turnout does not really change much of the figures since it's applied across board. I used it only to imagine the worst case scenario.

This is a disclaimer that the opinion of the op is not an actual result rather its a figment of him and his paymasters in APC imagination. Tomorrow APC will use this as the result for their parallel government. VOTERS BEWARE OF SCAM POLLS

That dude that said GEJ will win in kogi must be dreaming....

I hope the president can see the handwriting on the wall.
Its like GEJ supporters don't get it. As at now, 70% of nigerians would rather vote for an alien from mars, than to return GEJ to aso rock..

tomakint:

Lagos, Edo, Oyo etc Your calculations on Northwest aggregate votes is laughable; 10 million (for Buhari) to 4 million (for Jonathan) are u kidding me? FYI, elections will pan out along the strength of party members and those with their PVCs! Be guided Fact is Buhari can never win 15 States let alone 22 So Ondo and Ekiti will be won by Buhari?

There is a reason i like ignoring thread like this.
This same buhari contested thrice and on each occasion he was smashed like royal rubble,yet his paid fans wont let us hear words.

dollarlander:
Jonathan cannot win this election. The registered voters from SW alone is equivalent to registered voters in SS & SE. 14million voters.
Even if there's 100% turn out from SE, SS, they are only competing with SW.

Hello.
I'd like to direct your attention to this thread: https://www.nairaland.com/2058253/regions-states-won-2011-election

Enjoy.

I cant help but admire the swag the Old man (Buhari) is adding to his campaign lately. I tell you the truth, swag will kill the shot. Nigerians like to be appealed to emotionally, that is what Jonathan did in 2011, and that is what he is failing to do now! Let us face the fact, Jona no get swag at all, no shoki dance, no crowd psyching, and I think BUHARI IS BEGINNING TO ADD THAT NOW!
I am beginning to see Buhari's manifesto and blue-print all around now. But for Oga Jona I have not seen any.
Sentiment apart, I give it to BUHARI. unless dem wan rob!

******** live more, learn more*****
www.bobfash..com

PassingShot:


I have been corrected on that of Kaduna. Just that I don't think it's necessary to change it though.

I still believe Buhari will edge Edo.

My percentages in Lagos is not far from yours still.

The 80% turnout does not really change much of the figures since it's applied across board. I used it only to imagine the worst case scenario.

Good analysis no doubt. I agree with you no need to change it.

ndcide:


WTF?

TThe other party will not convince voters too. People like you may even join APC in rigging and thereafter come here to pontificate.

To you, APC don't rig elections but only a fool will believe and keep saying it.

I have not said anything close to what you insinuate. And I know all parties in Nigeria rig too but not to believe that PDP plans to rig with the promise to deliver 5.9 million of 6.2 million votes is hard.

nigerianvenom:


There is a reason i like ignoring thread like this.
This same buhari contested thrice and on each occasion he was smashed like royal rubble,yet his paid fans wont let us hear words.

A lot of things have changed since. It is you who need to factor in those changes.

my prediction is, pdp will win as usual but this time, the rejection and resistance of the result will be heavier and the international community will intervene and there will be a coalition govt.

PassingShot:


It means convincing voters and making the votes count.

thanks for this clarification
I hope they are presently at work convincing voters oooo
because if the two mutually try to use other means to DELIVER
the one with federal might will clearly win except the court overturns it

..............May the choice of the people win

Below was the PassingShot and his team prediction for 2013 Anambra election in favour of Ngige, as son of a serial k....ler and Failure. PassingShot will not stop failing in his predictions, read him below:


Anambra 2013 - Prophet Predicts Victory For Ngige by PassingShot(m): 7:32am On Nov 14, 2013
Will it come to pass? We will get to know in 3 days I guess.


Speaking with journalists in Aba, Abia State yesterday, Apostle Nnopu said his prediction was based on revelation from God.

Nnopu, a former knight of St. Mulumba in the Catholic Church, said that God revealed to him that nothing or any amount of force would stop Ngige from winning the election.

The prophet, who said he prophesised that Governor Peter Obi would win in the 2010 governorship election and it came to past, said it was wrong for the governor to politicise religion in the state to the advantage of his party.

“I predicted that Governor Peter Obi was going to win the 2010 election based on the revelation I received from God and it came to pass. Now the same God has revealed to me that Ngige is going to win and as far as I’m concerned, He has spoken.

“I am not happy the way Governor Obi is trying to make it look as if Anambra State is all about Catholic Church, the way he is politicising religion in Anambra because of election, is not in the interest of the state.”

“But no matter what anybody seems to be doing, God has revealed that Ngige will be the next governor of Anambra State,” the prophet predicted.




http://nationalmirroronline.net/new/prophet-predicts-victory-for-ngige/
(Quote) (Report) (Like) (Share)
Re: Anambra 2013 - Prophet Predicts Victory For Ngige by RoyalRoy(m): 7:35am On Nov 14, 2013
Before nko?

Its plain for the blind to see!!!

He has worked hard enough to earn the victory.

Only God can stop him from winning.
(Quote) (Report) (Like) (Share)

PassingShot:


I've never been there. I relied on the fact that Sambo is from there only. However, from what I've read here, Buhari should win that state.

Buhari is based in Kaduna. He has a cult following there.

cashkid:


U are wat? Yoruba man? U ve lost ur identity and i pray u find it soon. But in a situation whereby u are right, then Obviously, u are one of the few that run after crumbs from uncle jonah, and i put it to u that u are nothing but selfish!!!!!!!!!!! Not only massively, even aggresively, nonsense. As if southwest is part of your extended family......

u r blinded by the clamouring of an ethno religious terror sponsoring coup plotting civilian administration overthrowing cow rearer

come 2015 the wool will be wiped from your eye

Nonsense

vizboy:



you keep repeating same mistake Edo might be apc on state level but on federal level it is Jonathan.

mind you am on ground in Edo state.

Bro, I'm on ground as well. The NASS Polls would determine who wins the Presidential in Edo!

Kenai:
Laugh wan tear my belle o!

Buhari having 200,000+ votes in Anambra?
Chai! Sorry, but Buhari will not have up to 8,000 votes in Anambra.

And not just that, even "Invalid" will score more votes than Buhari in the East.

if only u know how wrong u r!

Jonathan succeeded in fooling us in 2011 - but now, ndi anambra asago anya!

Do u think we are fools? Where is the bridge that he promised us will be completed in the first year of his tenure? after 4 years all we got from GEJ is a foundation laying stone for bridge onitsha!

Enugu-Onitsha express that he promised to rehabilitate - where is the rehabilitation? all n'onwa!

Ndi anambra aburo ewu! Anambra will spring a surprise vote in support of Buhari! Thank God our Governor is not a GEJ man like Adaobi!

Bia kenai kpachapu anya gi ooo!!

tomakint:

Oh my bad.....but how dare you say, Jonathan may not win a single State in SW what about Ondo, Ekiti, Oyo and Lagos you think Buhari stand a chance? Think my brother think.....

In 2011, Jonathan looked like a better option to buhari especially to most Neutrals(in which most SWesterners are in dis setup)....But now he's gone into office for four years and totally failed to perform, he has dissapointed many people and he doesn't cut image of some1 who can handle current problems in the country- Most of the people OR a significant chunk of people who voted for him in 2011 won't be doing so again in 2015, the same cannot be said for buhari- because most of those who voted buhari in 2011 are even more pumped-up to do so again now dat victory seems a more possible reality- add dat to the "converts" from jonathan......I think main difference is dat Jonathan has unfortunately proven to be a failure- whereas Buhari loyals can still constructively argue for his case, since he hasn't being tried and failed or atleast not failed up to Jonathan's extent.......GEJ messed it up for himself, he could have had an easy run for 2nd term.if he had done his job well or atleast averagely well. but he went in and totally flopped it- The whole subsidy stuff, the Presidential Pardons, Stella Oduah, e.t.c- add dat to the B.Haram problem which looks totally like somtin beyond his competence.....You don't fail dis much in dis fragile, highly sensitive country and expect to just walk in back again. I think GEJ should have come at another time. Maybe when the country is a lot more stable with lesser problems- but these problems seem too big for him to handle.

semi illi ? not psbl lol

PassingShot:


Calm down mister!

On party strength as you say, APC still controls Lagos, Oyo and Edo. So, you think PDP will win in those states?

And I am old enough to tell you politics of Nigeria from the mid 80's let alone that of the SW where I come from. Original omo Ibadan ni mi

Who Is controlling lagos state in 2011, and what is outcome? we all know d outcome. PDP ALL D WAY.

GEJ will win the election but Buhari will take-over through tribunal-appeal court and 2nd civil war will erupt.... Quote me not until July 2015

PassingShot:


Sorry dear, I still don't see GEJ winning any of the SW. The SW want their "son of the soil" as the number two citizen too having been sidelined for six years by GEJ.

Whatever the strength of PDP in Jigawa and Niger, they cannot win the presidential election there and one of the reasons is that Buhari is so popular there now than in 2011 when he had Atiku and Ribadu to share the votes with.

Includin ekiti and osun ryt??...u make me laff....the bitter btw dis enthnic region and nt son of the soil will be paramont mark my words

donphilopus:


Bro, I'm on ground as well. The NASS Polls would determine who wins the Presidential in Edo!

Forget about the NASS it wouldn't determine it.


even last election the comrade gov ask his people to vote for jonathan and same thing will happen.

mind you I stay close to his home town.

Edo might be Apc state but for the presidency election it is 80% jonathan buhari might have to up to 20% but not up to 30%


I also voted APC at the last governorship and chairmanship elections

Jarus:


Some people also forget that majority of the Okada riders are abokis who are having Buhari stickers on their Okada already!

you are a very observant man.
and those boys actually took it upon themselves to register far more than the ibos that some are banking on.
I foresee a situation where there will be more turnout in the Presidential election than the governorship election.
the abokis are really determine to vote apc.
go to mile 12, idi araba and apapa, you will be shock at the fanatical support that buhari enjoys.

Solowande:
Who Is controlling lagos state in 2011, and what is outcome? we all know d outcome. PDP ALL D WAY.

He was in CPC and the party had no structure in the state then plus the fact that Tinubu and Fashola were not on his side. Add GEJ goofs from 2011 till date and you get the drift.

Buhari will win in abia state

rufdyamond:

Includin ekiti and osun ryt??...u make me laff....the bitter btw dis enthnic region and nt son of the soil will be paramont mark my words

Even in 2011 GEJ didn't win Osun. So stop dreaming!

orimsamsam:
. Tink the vice versa will take place in southeast

No vice versa will happen in South east. South east will never vote a fulani or hausa moslim to rule Nigeria.

ferderick:
Political permutation. My only pray is that no life of a Nigerian will be lost when the General fail. The serial loser will fail again not becos the General is a devil, but becos Nigerians hate discipline and the powers that be are against him.

True talk. My thinking exactly.

BlackHuman:
In 2011, Jonathan looked like a better option to buhari especially to most Neutrals(in which most SWesterners are in dis setup)....But now he's gone into office for four years and totally failed to perform, he has dissapointed many people and he doesn't cut image of some1 who can handle current problems in the country- Most of the people OR a significant chunk of people who voted for him in 2011 won't be doing so again in 2015, the same cannot be said for buhari- because most of those who voted buhari in 2011 are even more pumped-up to do so again now dat victory seems a more possible reality- add dat to the "converts" from jonathan......I think main difference is dat Jonathan has unfortunately proven to be a failure- whereas Buhari loyals can still constructively argue for his case, since he hasn't being tried and failed or atleast not failed up to Jonathan's extent.......GEJ messed it up for himself, he could have had an easy run for 2nd term.if he had done his job well or atleast averagely well. but he went in and totally flopped it- The whole subsidy stuff, the Presidential Pardons, Stella Oduah, e.t.c- add dat to the B.Haram problem which looks totally like somtin beyond his competence.....You don't fail dis much in dis fragile, highly sensitive country and expect to just walk in back again. I think GEJ should have come at another time. Maybe when the country is a lot more stable with lesser problems- but these problems seem too big for him to handle.

10,000,000,000,000 LIKES
The turning point for GEJ was sending combat ready military men to stop civil protest in Lagos. His rating started a downward trend from thereon.

SW will throw a new twist to all political permutations.
For the first time ever a Church denomination will command who gets what and who doesn't.
Redeemed Church will sway so much votes that political alliances and deferences will have new meaning.
Don't forget, where Redeem goes, Winner follows.
Interesting days ahead.

vizboy:



Forget about the NASS it wouldn't determine it.


even last election the comrade gov ask his people to vote for jonathan and same thing will happen.

mind you I stay close to his home town.

Edo might be Apc state but for the presidency election it is 80% jonathan buhari might have to up to 20% but not up to 30%

Oshiomole asked his people to vote Jonathan in 2011 because he knew that CAN was relatively small then. If I may ask, who did Tinubu/Fashola ask his people to vote (for) during the 2011 Presidential Election?! Who told you Oshiomole won't like to get a Federal Appointment after his tenure?! 2011 is different from 2015. He won't risk it. Because if he does, he would surely lose so many NASS Seats to PDP in Edo.

The first time Oshiomole publicly blasted Jonathan was when he (Oshiomole) celebrated his 6th anniversary. Did he openly blast Jonathan in 2011?! Did Jonathan say Edo State would 'fall' in 2011. Oshiomole has already asked us to got out en masse and vote out Jonathan for saying we would 'fall'. Wait till February and see how it would be!