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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) (33951 Views)
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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by remsonik(f): 5:25pm On Mar 17, 2015 |
Buhari will win in the following states Adamawa Bauchi Benue Borno Gombe Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara Abuja Ekiti Jonathan will win in the following states States Anambra Enugu Akwa Ibom Abia Bayelsa Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Imo Plateau Taraba Buhari's odds are + or - 2 of the states listed above He will get two thirds of total votes cast 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by francizy(m): 6:49pm On Mar 17, 2015 |
Gbawe2: I do not envy your upbringing. A matured and reasonable person will caution someone once and forget it ever happened but in your case you remained bitter and carried it on your head like a hawker on the street. You really need to chill bro cuz you're loosing it. And you are the one enjoying NL fame not me so I don't see any reason why you should say that I take things here too seriously. I don't and I am more matured than exchanging words with people here. Na only people wey carry internet matter for head go descend to that level. 3 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Forwetinnah: 7:47pm On Mar 17, 2015 |
Gbawe2: From your bolded italicised quotes it is safe to say the so called "big boys" of SW are planning on rigging the elections for the APC, I wonder why you would go ahead to mention "free and fair elections" in the same post,it makes no sense. The APC is rotten, don't claim to be saints...your every post reeks of fear, grasping onto an illusion you know can never be reality. Let the best rigger win, it makes me laugh when you think the APC are the only ones that can come up with last minute surprises. GEJ cant win in the SW if it's free and fair but the "big boys in Yoruba land" can make it happen for BH, how?? How many are these big boys again? Can they form a hamlet, an LGA, or an entire region?? What is their mission?? And you accuse the PDP of having desperate people trying to secure their future?? Na wa for APC o. Have you taken time to address the issue of underage voters being registered in the North to vote BH?? Is that free and fair to you?? Smh 5 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by SeverusSnape(m): 8:55pm On Mar 17, 2015 |
dein77:Nice one sir, Tell him. That's if he'll hear, they take things too personal. Angry people's Congress 7 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by tomakint: 9:08pm On Mar 17, 2015 |
egift:Despite all the tutoring you are still not WISE but BLIND to voice of reasons. |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by dein77(m): 9:46pm On Mar 17, 2015 |
SeverusSnape: I doubt they will hear; they are very cocky and vainglorious. I doubt they will take head and follow the path of humility and modesty! One even went as far as digging up my Facebook information just to show his depth of anger and bitterness. They've forgotten 28th will come and pass by.... 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by SeverusSnape(m): 9:54pm On Mar 17, 2015 |
dein77:Like seriously??... @ bold Just ignore them, It's only a matter of time. I just don't know how these people were brain washed like BH members, Just bitter set of people, so intolerant. , Is that how they intend to sell their candidate to the electorates?... Is this the change. My brother, Just forget these people; they ain't worth it. 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by dein77(m): 10:12pm On Mar 17, 2015 |
SeverusSnape: Hahahhahaha. They're not worthy of my attention. ....It's a show of the depth of desperation and gloom hanging over their noses. ...The idiot went as far as talking about my wife's family. ...didn't worry cos I know who I am..... 2 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by SeverusSnape(m): 10:34pm On Mar 17, 2015 |
dein77:Damn!... That is so heartless!, haba!, Your wife Hmmmmmmmmm... I'm speechless. It's well sir. |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Here2BustnScrew: 10:58pm On Mar 17, 2015 |
barcanista:ride on Sir.. 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Canme4u(m): 12:10am On Mar 18, 2015 |
stronger: |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by SirShymexx: 1:10am On Mar 18, 2015 |
Gbawe2: Thanks, Sir. Insightful post. I wasn't even calling you to bless the thread. I know the guy is cerebrally challenged and as inconsequential as they come, with his blinkered and skewed illiterate opinions. I was just alluding to folks I'd listen to when it comes to sound and intellectually stimulating/astute analysis of Nigerian politics. You're way out his league, and you honestly don't need come down to his level. His vacuous harebrained opinions are for half-baked folks on his level. Don't waste your time on unprincipled sycophantic pseuds, who speak from both sides of the mouth, for a few crumbs to munch like a rat with whiskers. Especially dunderheads who revel in their own id.iocy. A cursory look into a lot of his epistles, and how he contradicts himself, from line to line - while regurgitating the same tripe he posted in the past in support of the former team he was riding with, albeit this time, it's for his new team, is enough to illustrate how obtuse the little guy is. No serious minded person will take a mentally impaired scum like that seriously. I was going to disgrace him a few days ago on a next thread - by pointing out all the contradictions in his epistle, and show him out for the gormless and blinkered airhead he's. However, I had to keep it moving cos he's not worth it. Hopefully, we'll get a clearer picture and thorough analysis of the election projections in the SW from you soon. I'm highly interested in Yoruba votes and I hope my people will speak with one voice. Yorubas have to take a stand - they were shut-out of GEJ's government (a blessing in disguise cos the guy has been an utter failure), and they must make their votes count. 6 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 1:19am On Mar 18, 2015 |
It's next week saturday. Atleast PVC has been distributed, if you don't have yours go get it and let's hit the poll. No need for further childish analysis. Buhari got his wigs, GEJ got his wigs. I want to see how he would cry the fourth time. 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by mandarin: 1:36pm On Mar 19, 2015 |
1 ABIA 1,396,162 1,177,520 2 ADAMAWA 1,559,012 1,381,571 3 AKWA-IBOM 1,680,759 1,587,566 4 ANAMBRA 1,963,173 1,658,967 5 BAUCHI 2,054,125 1,778,380 6 BAYELSA 610,373 546,372 7 BENUE 2,015,452 1,607,800 8 BORNO 1,934,079 1,407,777 9 CROSS RIVER 1,175,623 963,929 10 DELTA 2,275,264 1,921,627 11 EBONYI 1,074,273 848,392 12 EDO 1,779,738 1,218,734 13 EKITI 732,021 511,790 14 ENUGU 1,429,221 1,223,606 15 FCT 881,472 569,109 16 GOMBE 1,120,023 1,069,635 17 IMO 1,803,030 1,707,449 18 JIGAWA 1,831,276 1,756,320 19 KADUNA 3,407,222 3,174,519 20 KANO 4,975,701 4,112,039 21 KATSINA 2,827,943 2,620,096 22 KEBBI 1,470,648 1,372,630 23 KOGI 1,350,883 926,013 24 KWARA 1,142,267 884,996 25 LAGOS 5,822,207 3,767,647 26 NASARAWA 1,242,667 1,048,053 27 NIGER 2,014,317 1,682,058 28 OGUN 1,829,534 904,647 29 ONDO 1,524,655 1,110,844 30 OSUN 1,407,107 1,030,051 31 OYO 2,415,566 1,639,967 32 PLATEAU 2,001,825 1,508,585 33 RIVERS 2,537,590 2,127,837 34 SOKOTO 1,611,929 1,527,004 35 TARABA 1,340,652 1,270,889 36 YOBE 1,099,970 824,401 37 ZAMFARA 1,495,717 1,435,452 Total 68,833,476 55,904,272 I have been looking at the possible case scenario that can happen at the coming Presidential election next week based on the available data released by INEC as at 12th March 2015. In all, 55,904,272 registered voters have collected their PVCs and let's look at some possibilities: Lets take 80% voters' turnout across board which means we will take available figures as absolute voters per state although i foresee high, moderate and fair turn out across the states. First : States according to the strength of each candidate - This is a general knowledge that ether candidates of PDP and the APC has their traditional states where they are strong and will capture at least 75% of votes cast. JONATHAN 1. ABIA-1, 177,520 2. ENUGU-1,223,606 3. ANAMBRA -1,658,967 4. EBONYI - 848,392 5. IMO -1,707,449 6. RIVERS - 2,127,837 7. CROSS RIVER- 963,929 8. AKWA IBOM-1,587,566 9. BAYELSA-546,372 10. DELTA- 1,921627 11. BENUE- 1,607,800 12. 1,508,585 TOTAL - 16,879,650 BUHARI 1. SOKOTO-1,527,004 2. ZAMFARA- 1,435,452 3. KEBBI - 1,372,630 4. KATSINA- 2,620,096 5. NIGER- 1,682,058 6. KADUNA- 3,174,519 7. JIGAWA- 1,756,320 8. YOBE - 824,401 9. BORNO - 1,407,777 10. ADAMAWA- 1,381,571 11. BAUCHI-1,778,380 12. GOMBE - 1,069,635 13. NASARAWA-1,048,053 14. KANO- 4,112,039 15. KWARA - 884,996 TOTAL -26,074,931 SOME SOUTHWEST STATES 1. LAGOS - 3,767,647 2. OGUN - 904,647 3. OSUN - 1,030,051 4. OYO- 1,639,967 TOTAL - 7,342,312 SWING STATES 1. EDO -1,218,734 2. EKITI - 511,790 3. ONDO - 1,110,844 4. TARABA - 1,270,889 5. FCT - 569,109 6. KOGI - 926,013 TOTAL - 5,607,379 I have grouped these states according to the strength of each candidate. Now, many people will argue on these swing states but believe me both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses there which may compensate for each other. I will freeze some political factors and look at scenarios with these figures to see some possibilities. 1. if equal turn out is achieved across all states and voters vote according to strength of each candidate AND LETS SAY THE SWING STATES ARE SHARED 50% each include some southwest states as indicated above: JONATHAN WINS = 16,879,650 + 3,671,156+2,803,689.5 = 23,354,495.5 BUHARI WINS = 26,074,931+3,671,156+2,803,689.5 = 32,549,776.5 VERDICT : BUHARI WINS outrightly 2. Supposing Jonathan has 25% of votes cast in Buhari's strong holds and Buhari has 10% in Jonathan's strongholds while Buhari wins 60% in some Southwest states and both share swing states 50-50 : JONATHAN WINS =6,518,732.75+15,191, 685+2,936,934.8+2,803,689.5 = 27,451,042.05 BUHARI WINS = 19,556,198.25+1,687,965.5+4,405,387.2+2,803,689.5 = 28,453,240.45 BUHARI WINS by slim margin 3. Supposing Buhari wins 85% of votes cast in his strong areas, Jonathan win 90% in his own, Jonathan win majority in swing states say 60% and BUHARI wins 70% in some southwest states : JONATHAN WINS = 3,911,239.65+15,191,685+3,364,427.4+2,202,693.6 = 24,670,045.65 BUHARI WINS = 31,234,226.35 A whole lots of scenario modeling can be done by you but realistically. If based on factors that can influence this election we can give 1. Buhari strong areas = between 80-90% of votes cast 2. Jonathan strong areas returning between 75-90% votes cast 3. Buhari wins at least 50% in some southwest states(realistically, he wont get less than 60%) of all votes cast 4. Jonathan and Buhari share swing states 50-50( Note, its not certain if Fayose's influence in Ekiti will matter, if it does, Jonathan wins but the total voting population is not sufficient to upturn results as Buhari is popular in Kogi and Taraba) Low registration and PVC collection is not good for GEJ as pattern revealed Northerners can always endure long hours to vote unlike in the south where many wont do such thing. Another factor is Lagos. THERE IS A STRONG INDICATION THAT OVER A MILLION PEOPLE MAY NOT VOTE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS 1. Some of registered voter actually registered close to their places of work and this affect a huge population of those that dwell in the outskirt towns of Ogun state 2. This is similarly going to affect alot of Igbo voters that registered close to their shops if they live far away means they wont be able to also vote. 3. Many Lagosians may not just vote anticipating violence or just indifference, sitting at home and watching television, this is where those who mobilized for registration in 2011 will likely have more votes. Let me stop and read comments 1 Like 2 Shares |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by ChristyG(f): 3:56pm On Mar 19, 2015 |
sunayo:anybody can claim to anything on the internet,it is allowed,u can aswell be the ooni of ife,so spare us ur 'i am yoruba' titles.of course they are some yorubas who support jonathan but they are in d minority,buhari is going to win majority of sw votes,u are the one who is enjoining the propaganda of an ijaw id1ot who thinks that because he lives in lagos then he can dictate how yorubas in other states will vote...a se yin be film trick. |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by ajepako(f): 4:01pm On Mar 19, 2015 |
SeverusSnape: I'm Yoruba, and I'm solidly behind the candidature of GEJ.. Never will be a slave or join the bound-for-destruction wagon being driven by Tinubu and his entire thieving crew.. GMB Olorun ma je oh! 7 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by SeverusSnape(m): 4:45pm On Mar 19, 2015 |
ajepako:Correct guy, I dey feel you. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Ahmeduana(m): 5:33pm On Mar 19, 2015 |
egift:DID I HEAR YOU SAY FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA OR CONFEDRACY OF AREWANISTAN, WHICH THE HEADQUARTER WILL BE SAMBISA! |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by beetruth: 9:14pm On Mar 19, 2015 |
Osun will shock a lot of people. You think hungry peeps will vote their sufferer or his party? As for omo onile pls forget it. Not in Yoruba land. We vote for who pays us. Obj couldn't even win his ward/region in his own time. Can't wait for this election results. I am a confirmed Yoruba and I vote GEJ Never again will I vote the certificateless or the 'lais 'party 4 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by ochejoseph(m): 7:41pm On Mar 27, 2015 |
Tomorrow he will be crowned again |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 11:17am On Mar 30, 2015 |
Nobody mumu reach barcanista walahi!! 15 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Meritbaba(m): 11:22am On Mar 30, 2015 |
I saw this post sometimes back and I decide to reserve my comment, now am back Barcanista how market be for SW? 5 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by superstar1(m): 11:25am On Mar 30, 2015 |
When we were telling him the politics of SW, he was misyarning like a professor in SW politics. Which Oba will tell anyone whom to vote? Our politics have gotten to a level where people will collect your money and will still not vote for you. It's about performance and perception of the people. 3 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Scatterboss(m): 11:37am On Mar 30, 2015 |
superstar1: The mofo was arguing and even telling us how we gonna vote in our region. I cant stop laughing.... 6 Likes 1 Share
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Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by haffaze777(m): 11:45am On Mar 30, 2015 |
beetruth: how market for osun 3 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by ChristyG(f): 11:50am On Mar 30, 2015 |
...awon smellos oshi SAI BUHARI 2 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by olapluto(m): 11:55am On Mar 30, 2015 |
barcanista:You were right. Have you recovered from the shock? 14 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by olapluto(m): 11:58am On Mar 30, 2015 |
Ngwakwe: You give me good jokes. As I await the final results, this thread is the best place to be. To laugh at people like you. 8 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 12:01pm On Mar 30, 2015 |
olapluto: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .that boy barcanista been hiding since march 28th . . . . . 6 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Ngwakwe: 12:08pm On Mar 30, 2015 |
olapluto: I am counting the number of bastards from Southwest as the results are collated. Don't forget the percentage of bastards from the region is becoming phenomenon, if we go by Ibadan declaration that any Yoruba who votes GEJ is a bastard. 2 Likes |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by Nobody: 12:10pm On Mar 30, 2015 |
olapluto: What you are doing is not good o You wan make person faint for your neck? 1 Like |
Re: Beyond Propaganda: President Jonathan Is Favored To Win SW (opinion) by olapluto(m): 12:12pm On Mar 30, 2015 |
Ngwakwe:Well, lets say 30% of Oyo state are Igbos. In Ekiti, 60%, Ogun, 35%, Lagos, 40%. Sounds about right to me. Shame never catch you to hide your head ba! 1 Like |
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