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Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" - Politics - Nairaland

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Truth About US Report On Boko Haram / IPOB Should Stop, Igbos Are Not Ready For Another Civil War- Okorocha / Why Buratai, Danbazau Were Not Indicted In Arms Scandal Report – Nigerian Govt (2) (3) (4)

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Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 10:02am On Nov 27, 2015
A new security report entitled "Nigerian Unity in the Balance" authored for the United States Army War College has, again, warned Nigerian leaders to beware of another civil war or an outright break-up following what it called ongoing divisive trends in the country. The report comes in the shadow of recent discoveries and interception of arms and ammunition in some parts of northern Nigeria.

This development has raised fears and alarm in security and southern political circles as to the goals of the forces behind the smuggling of arms. While similar arm discoveries had happened in some southern states in recent past, the frequency of such discoveries in the North in recent days has reportedly increased the level of intelligence shadowing and surveillance in the area.

The US Army report released in June this year by the Strategic Studies Institute of War College was written by two former American servicemen, Gerald McLaughlin and Clarence J. Bouchat. McLaughlin is a graduate of the U.S. Army War College while Bouchat is also an adjunct professor at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC).



The 103-page report, whose foreword was written by the Director, Strategic Studies, Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, Professor Douglas Lovelace, observed that divisive forces were waxing stronger than uniting forces in Nigeria, warning that unless this was reversed, Nigeria`s existence could be jeopardised. According to the report, “Parochial interests created by religious, cultural, ethnic, economic, regional, and political secessionist tendencies are endemic in Nigeria. Under such stresses, Nigerian unity may fail.



“Should Nigeria’s leaders mismanage the political economy and reinforce centrifugal forces in Nigeria, the breaks to create autonomous regions or independent countries would likely occur along its previously identified fault lines,” the report warned. “Having already experienced one brutal civil war, Nigeria is at risk for a recurrence of conflict or dissolution, especially since some of the underpinning motivations of the war remain unresolved," the report observed, detailing many fault lines speeding up disintegrative tendencies in the country.



“Indeed, East Timor, Eritrea, Croatia, and Somaliland indicate that the weakest point of failing states is along colonial borders. Of more interest for Nigerian unity is that this may also occur between regions separately administered by a common colonial power, as occurred between Malaysia and Singapore, and North and South Sudan, where differences proved irreconcilable after the departure of British administration. At least, some of the resulting regions and states of a possible Nigerian devolution may divide along such internal lines”, the report projected.



While conceding that Nigeria’s fate is primarily in the hands of Nigerians, the report noted that such could be positively affected by actions of the US, adding that “Nigeria’s future is in balance and the United States should help tip the scales.” The report particularly warned that religious differences were taking the centre-stage in the emerging conflict situation in the country, disputing repeated reports that economic reasons were to blame for the insurgency and other conflicts in the country.



The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrategic analysis.



Meanwhile, as insurgency remains a major headache in the Northeastern part of the country, with the growing cases of arms stockpile in the North-West states giving security analysts sleepless nights, especially as clues with regards to the motives of the masterminds remaining yet unclear. As of the time of filing this report, security agencies are reportedly focusing on both local and external sources in their bid to unravel the sudden surge in the trafficking menace.

Sunday Tribune was told that the initial suspicion indicate that the importation of arms was due to transnational islamist terrorists arming local jihadists, as well as using Nigeria as a transit route in the Sahel arms and related smuggling trade. This line of thought appeared to be the main preoccupation of the security agencies for sometime until in the last one month when political motivation reportedly entered the review process.

While analysts are yet to find direct linkage between political actors and the arm storage and smuggling, there are fears that threats from key leaders suggest a zone preparing for war depending on the outcome of the 2015 race. An insider told Sunday Tribune that the intensity of arms stockpiles correlates with the heightening of tension and mounting attacks on the presidency by political opposition and political dissenters within the ruling party.

It will be recalled that the arms cache found in Kano is still a mystery despite the ongoing prosecution of the Lebanese involved in the entire saga. The security agencies are also at a loss over what alleged Hezbollah Shiite agents will be doing with the Sunni-led Boko Haramists on the arms stockpile. Boko Haram is said to belong to the Sunni school of Islam, attributing a link between them and the Lebanese under trial over the arms cache is now proving very difficult among intelligence analysts in the country. Though it is being suggested that the Shiite group could have its own separate mission in the country.



The Kano arms discovery, therefore, is reported to have given rise to many theories, one of such is the possibility of a non-religious involvement, with political undertone being the chief reason. This theory is believed to have gained ground after the Zamfara State government got embroiled in an arms importation controversy, claiming it wanted to arm vigilante groups in the state. The way and manner the state government imported the arms allegedly without police approval has since become a subject of investigation which is said to be attracting attention of many within the security circles.

A security official confessed under the condition of anonymity that importation of arms without prior approval is a violation of the law. Said he: “for a state government to have done that, it is a matter to be taken seriously.”

Though the Zamfara State government has since justified its action on the need to combat criminal gangs operating freely in the state, keen watchers of the 2015 drama, however, point out that arming vigilantes in the countdown to 2015 sent mixed signals. Many people believe that once Zamafara succeeds in its move, other state governments would follow suit, leading to proliferation of arms in the country and a potentially explosive electoral year in 2015.

While the controversy over Zamfara arms importation is still boiling, a tanker filled with assorted arms and ammunition was impounded on the Kebbi-Zamafara axis with the source of the importation still unknown. With hundreds of such tankers in remote parts of northwestern Nigeria, fears are spreading that there may be a deliberate program to acquire arms by some unknown elements in the northern parts of the country ahead of 2015 elections.

Four days after the tanker was impounded, another arms cache was discovered in the sleepy state of Jigawa with exchange of fire between security agencies and those described as Boko Haram operatives. Security analysts, however, faulted the reference to Boko Haram, as Jigawa has never witnessed any Boko Haram attack since the insurgency started. Others claimed the exchange of fire did not explain the owner of the arms or who masterminded their stockpile in the state.

Another source told Sunday Tribune of the fear being nursed in that sector, saying “the situation is scary. We cannot say for sure that all these arms are imported by islamists. We cannot prove that. We can also not prove that politicians are behind the caches of arms for electoral purposes. All what we know for sure is that there is an arms build-up in the core North,” a security official, said.

While the real motive behind the huge arms stockpile is still under investigation by security agencies, the statement credited to the Chief of Staff to the President, Chief Mike Oghiadohme, warning against civil war is cited by other analysts to argue that the presidency already has more facts over security situation in the country and, particularly, about arms build-up in northern part of the country than it is letting out. Oghiadohme had called attention to the tragedy of the last civil war, warning that leaders and elders should beware of actions and utterances capable of plunging the nation into another conflict.

The arms build-up situation has become an open issue within the Nigerian military, which is battling insurgency in the North-East. Though the military is not ruling out political opportunism, it however suspects the Islamists to be behind the arms build-up, while the wider intelligence community are fingering political forces as being neck-deep in the menace.

Sagir Musa,spokesman of the Joint Task Force in Borno, while confirming the arms proliferation gave greater insight into the problem facing the North and the country as a whole in a recent statement on the issue.

Said he: “Nigeria’s borders are massive with hundreds of footpaths crisscrossing to neighboring countries of Cameroon, Chad and Niger with links to Mali, Libya and Sudan. From conservative estimates by locals, there are well over 250 footpaths from Damaturu/Maiduguri axis that link or lead direct to Cameroon, Chad or Niger. These paths, which are mostly unknown to security agencies, are unmanned, unprotected and have continued to serve as conveyor belts for arms and ammunition trafficking into Nigeria.

“It is disheartening and unfortunate that the “merchants of death” have since devised methods to beat security agencies at the borders, chief among them, through the footpaths. These methods include the use of camels, donkeys and cows to traffic arms, ammunition and drugs such as cocaine into Nigeria. The fact that the weapons are small, light and collapsible makes it easy to be concealed and moved on camels and donkeys’ backs in a specially crafted skin or thatched bags mainly meant for the illegal “expedition” undetected. Similarly, some cows and grains merchants in the North-East sub-region of the country device means of hiding cache of arms and ammunition in empty fuel tankers, vehicle engines and bags of grains.

“The “grains” are transported in large number via trucks, trailers, lorries and old model pickup vans and Jeeps with little attention given to them by security agents. The use of Jega-type of tricycles (KEKE-NAPEP) as well as camels, donkeys, and cows (moving in flocks) to deceive, hide and conveniently traffic arms in some parts of the North are ways hitherto unknown, not well known”, Musa noted.

He explained further that “the Libyan and Malian rebels are desperate to exchange arms for money to Boko Haram terrorists, their financiers and collaborators as the sect has since been affiliated to Al-Qaida in the Maghreb. This has added to the overwhelming challenge of the influx of illegal aliens, arms, ammunition and sophisticated IED materials into the country and an efficient and effective fight against terrorism,” Musa had stated.

Sunday Tribune was, however, told that the political angle is already taking the center stage of discreet investigation into the discoveries. Already, it was gathered that investigation into the Kano arms caches has been extended to foreign soil, while the security agencies are said to be mounting pressure to ensure that Zamfara vigilantes are not armed with weapons.

As the arms influx expands, the questions on the lips of keen security analysts are many. Who is preparing for war? Is the North becoming a Somalia? And is the South too secretly building up its own arms, and/or has not been undetected? Could the flexing of muscles by politicians be a subtle declaration of war over 2015?

Only a thorough investigation by the security agencies can provide the necessary answers.

Sources include Sunday Tribune
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 10:06am On Nov 27, 2015
Blame that sectional bigoted unrepentant stubborn goat called Buhari

8 Likes

Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 10:10am On Nov 27, 2015
Nigeria is not working. Only a fool will assume it will get better

We can not continue like this.

Either we renegotiate our constitution or we go our separate ways.

Buhari and the APC have since dumped the confab report and are gearing towards full northernization agenda.

This can only spell doom.

7 Likes

Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by 9jii(m): 10:14am On Nov 27, 2015
The Nigeria's unity is unshakable but it didn't Stop the Fools from trying and failing.

2 Likes

Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 10:14am On Nov 27, 2015
Meanwhile, as insurgency remains a major headache in the Northeastern part of the country, with the growing cases of arms stockpile in the North-West states giving security analysts sleepless nights, especially as clues with regards to the motives of the masterminds remaining yet unclear.

Jihad 3.0 loading

1 Like

Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 10:20am On Nov 27, 2015
Brothers, we need to map out a strategy to get out of this unholy marriage, If we can have a united southern Nigeria, good for everyone, Then we would practice true federalism< IMO i see yoruba's as close allies to the igbos but their leaders are making matters worse for them, they have lost every spirit of southern brotherhood! The second option should be BIAFRA.

1 Like

Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 10:42am On Nov 27, 2015
"Baboons and dogs will be soaked in blood" and then the North started smuggling in weapons in preparation for war. A terrorist is the president of nigeria and all people keep shouting is sai baba! I pity u pple. Now the question is what happened to the arms that were intercepted?

1 Like

Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 11:08am On Nov 27, 2015
WombRaiders:


No. It is all man for himself.

The Yorubas are to blame for this nonsense.

They revived the beast and worshiped the beast so they should live with the beast.

I want a christian nation devoid of any muslim.

I am sorry if this offends you but islam to me is not a religion but a pseudo political cult bent on dominating other people.

I can not forget all manners of insult the Yorubas heaped on Jonathan, the Ijaws and the entire Niger Delta all because they were jealous of our progress and wanted to return Nigeria to the post civil war status quo where they played second fiddle.

I can only clamour for ondo and Ekiti but the rest should remain in Nijeriya where they belong


Brother Forgiveness!, think about the average yoruba man, do you think they all agree with their leaders? infact the yorubas love the igbos and are always proud to have them geographically close. we need each other to progress, even most yorubas eat igbo food nowadays and even cook them at home. i'm not trying to woo anyone but i thought about the benefits and decided to air my view.
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by akinszz: 11:23am On Nov 27, 2015
I like ur spirit, but i don't think it can work if we don't put our bloated ego away.
willow0802:



Brother Forgiveness!, think about the average yoruba man, do you think they all agree with their leaders? infact the yorubas love the igbos and are always proud to have them geographically close. we need each other to progress, even most yorubas eat igbo food nowadays and even cook them at home. i'm not trying to woo anyone but i thought about the benefits and decided to air my view.
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by zendy: 11:41am On Nov 27, 2015
WombRaiders:
Blame that sectional bigoted unrepentant stubborn goat called Buhari


Forget the gworo chewing Fulani cattle rearer. He ran in 2003, he ran in 2007, he ran in 2011 and finally succeeded on his fourth attempt in 2015. One would have thought there was this deep burning desire for positive change that was driving this man to get to Government House. 6 months on, we have finally seen that the man only came for a free tax payer covered traveling spree.

Buhari is a disaster, even his cows in Daura are disappointed with him.

4 Likes

Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Chubhie: 11:46am On Nov 27, 2015
If paradventure a civil war breaks out, Niger delta would be the new power bloc in a new nigeria. Those militants are battle ready and watching proceedings on code.

Naija is already gone technically.

1 Like

Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Whynotthetruth(m): 11:50am On Nov 27, 2015
willow0802:



Brother Forgiveness!, think about the average yoruba man, do you think they all agree with their leaders? infact the yorubas love the igbos and are always proud to have them geographically close. we need each other to progress, even most yorubas eat igbo food nowadays and even cook them at home. i'm not trying to woo anyone but i thought about the benefits and decided to air my view.

If you're Yoruba then you're exceptional ...You don't really sound like them here cheesy
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 12:00pm On Nov 27, 2015
zendy:



Forget the gworo chewing Fulani cattle rearer. He ran in 2003, he ran in 2007, he ran in 2011 and finally succeeded on his fourth attempt in 2015. One would have thought there was this deep burning desire for positive change that was driving this man to get to Government House. 6 months on, we have finally seen that the man only came for a free tax payer covered traveling spree.

Buhari is a disaster, even his cows in Daura are disappointed with him.


What is so dangerous about this man is how he clings stubbornly to his bigotry.

Here is a man who "won' the most highly contested election in the history of Nigeria by a slim margin. The build up to the last elections polarized the polity as can be seen from the voting pattern in the SS/SE vs the core north where he got less than 5% accumulated votes.

Now if he was not such a staunch bigot, he would have began building bridges to the 5% region but rather he openly declared that he will only invest what is constitutionally required in those regions.

Now contrast this statement with the words and actions of GEJ who spent the better of his 4yrs appeasing to the north that didn't vote for him in 2011.


It is either this man forgets that in 4yrs he will need to renew his lease in Aso Rock.

This shows that come 2019 Buhari will rely on northern votes and the few delusional southwest votes to reclaim power.

The man is no way qualified to rule a multi ethnic nation like Nigeria.
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 12:10pm On Nov 27, 2015
Whynotthetruth:


If you're Yoruba then you're exceptional ...You don't really sound like them here cheesy

brother i'm igbo but i have close yoruba friends who love the igbos and each time i bring about the topic of biafra, they go pink and pray we dont leave. smiley the love is there but our leaders are just messing things for our youths
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 12:14pm On Nov 27, 2015
willow0802:



Brother Forgiveness!, think about the average yoruba man, do you think they all agree with their leaders? infact the yorubas love the igbos and are always proud to have them geographically close. we need each other to progress, even most yorubas eat igbo food nowadays and even cook them at home. i'm not trying to woo anyone but i thought about the benefits and decided to air my view.

I very well believe what you're saying, but by gosh the muslims amongst you seem so willing to appease the hardcore north. They seem willing to lead the charge in destroying the handshake across the south.

1 Like

Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Omololu007(m): 12:15pm On Nov 27, 2015
WombRaiders:


No. It is all man for himself.

The Yorubas are to blame for this nonsense.

They revived the beast and worshiped the beast so they should live with the beast.

I want a christian nation devoid of any muslim.

I am sorry if this offends you but islam to me is not a religion but a pseudo political cult bent on dominating other people.

I can not forget all manners of insult the Yorubas heaped on Jonathan, the Ijaws and the entire Niger Delta all because they were jealous of our progress and wanted to return Nigeria to the post civil war status quo where they played second fiddle.

I can only clamour for ondo and Ekiti but the rest should remain in Nijeriya where they belong
I wander when dis ijaw fish go get sense,asari dokunbo is a yoruba muslim abi..pig!
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by ProfessorPeter(m): 12:15pm On Nov 27, 2015
He who live by the sword shall die by the sword.
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by bugzbunny: 12:22pm On Nov 27, 2015
How can a president divide his country
Terming them 95%.....and 5%
Who does dat...

We all knw there are piling up weapons in d north but quick to invade a government house looking for arms down south.... Its such a pity

1 Like

Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by bugzbunny: 12:28pm On Nov 27, 2015
Omololu007:
I wander when dis ijaw fish go get sense,asari dokunbo is a yoruba muslim abi..pig!
Asari is a confused convert... We dash u
You are actually d pig...fool

1 Like

Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 12:29pm On Nov 27, 2015
DeeManD:


I very well believe what you're saying, but by gosh the muslims amongst you seem so willing to appease the hardcore north. They seem willing to lead the charge in destroying the handshake across the south.

brother, i also posed the question to them, i'm Igbo by the way. our leaders (both the yoruba's and igbos) brought this upon us due to greed and shortsightedness. but the youths must correct the mistakes.
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by mike404(m): 12:47pm On Nov 27, 2015
FRONT PAGE THINGS
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Nobody: 1:00pm On Nov 27, 2015
Meh, honestly, Yorubas are beginning to see their fallacy on voting for Buhari.




That bastard Tinubu and the ape OBJ blinded us. Even my friend, a hard-core "Change" agent is already becoming disappointed.



**sighs** Nigeria should break up already.
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by SegunAdewole: 1:03pm On Nov 27, 2015
WombRaiders:
Blame that sectional bigoted unrepentant stubborn goat called Buhari

Here in yorubaland when Buhari was declared winner, Hausas were seen shooting GUNS into the air celebrating their victory, i asked myself if these guns would have been used to kill Christians and non-northerners if Buhari had not been declared winner? Hmmm.
Odua should start thinking, we must never allow ourseves to be used by these jihadists.
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by SegunAdewole: 1:04pm On Nov 27, 2015
dp.
Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by wirinet(m): 1:22pm On Nov 27, 2015
willow0802:
A new security report entitled "Nigerian Unity in the Balance" authored for the United States Army War College has, again, warned Nigerian leaders to beware of another civil war or an outright break-up following what it called ongoing divisive trends in the country. The report comes in the shadow of recent discoveries and interception of arms and ammunition in some parts of northern Nigeria.

This development has raised fears and alarm in security and southern political circles as to the goals of the forces behind the smuggling of arms. While similar arm discoveries had happened in some southern states in recent past, the frequency of such discoveries in the North in recent days has reportedly increased the level of intelligence shadowing and surveillance in the area.

The US Army report released in June this year by the Strategic Studies Institute of War College was written by two former American servicemen, Gerald McLaughlin and Clarence J. Bouchat. McLaughlin is a graduate of the U.S. Army War College while Bouchat is also an adjunct professor at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC).



The 103-page report, whose foreword was written by the Director, Strategic Studies, Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, Professor Douglas Lovelace, observed that divisive forces were waxing stronger than uniting forces in Nigeria, warning that unless this was reversed, Nigeria`s existence could be jeopardised. According to the report, “Parochial interests created by religious, cultural, ethnic, economic, regional, and political secessionist tendencies are endemic in Nigeria. Under such stresses, Nigerian unity may fail.



“Should Nigeria’s leaders mismanage the political economy and reinforce centrifugal forces in Nigeria, the breaks to create autonomous regions or independent countries would likely occur along its previously identified fault lines,” the report warned. “Having already experienced one brutal civil war, Nigeria is at risk for a recurrence of conflict or dissolution, especially since some of the underpinning motivations of the war remain unresolved," the report observed, detailing many fault lines speeding up disintegrative tendencies in the country.



“Indeed, East Timor, Eritrea, Croatia, and Somaliland indicate that the weakest point of failing states is along colonial borders. Of more interest for Nigerian unity is that this may also occur between regions separately administered by a common colonial power, as occurred between Malaysia and Singapore, and North and South Sudan, where differences proved irreconcilable after the departure of British administration. At least, some of the resulting regions and states of a possible Nigerian devolution may divide along such internal lines”, the report projected.



While conceding that Nigeria’s fate is primarily in the hands of Nigerians, the report noted that such could be positively affected by actions of the US, adding that “Nigeria’s future is in balance and the United States should help tip the scales.” The report particularly warned that religious differences were taking the centre-stage in the emerging conflict situation in the country, disputing repeated reports that economic reasons were to blame for the insurgency and other conflicts in the country.



The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrategic analysis.



Meanwhile, as insurgency remains a major headache in the Northeastern part of the country, with the growing cases of arms stockpile in the North-West states giving security analysts sleepless nights, especially as clues with regards to the motives of the masterminds remaining yet unclear. As of the time of filing this report, security agencies are reportedly focusing on both local and external sources in their bid to unravel the sudden surge in the trafficking menace.

Sunday Tribune was told that the initial suspicion indicate that the importation of arms was due to transnational islamist terrorists arming local jihadists, as well as using Nigeria as a transit route in the Sahel arms and related smuggling trade. This line of thought appeared to be the main preoccupation of the security agencies for sometime until in the last one month when political motivation reportedly entered the review process.

While analysts are yet to find direct linkage between political actors and the arm storage and smuggling, there are fears that threats from key leaders suggest a zone preparing for war depending on the outcome of the 2015 race. An insider told Sunday Tribune that the intensity of arms stockpiles correlates with the heightening of tension and mounting attacks on the presidency by political opposition and political dissenters within the ruling party.

It will be recalled that the arms cache found in Kano is still a mystery despite the ongoing prosecution of the Lebanese involved in the entire saga. The security agencies are also at a loss over what alleged Hezbollah Shiite agents will be doing with the Sunni-led Boko Haramists on the arms stockpile. Boko Haram is said to belong to the Sunni school of Islam, attributing a link between them and the Lebanese under trial over the arms cache is now proving very difficult among intelligence analysts in the country. Though it is being suggested that the Shiite group could have its own separate mission in the country.



The Kano arms discovery, therefore, is reported to have given rise to many theories, one of such is the possibility of a non-religious involvement, with political undertone being the chief reason. This theory is believed to have gained ground after the Zamfara State government got embroiled in an arms importation controversy, claiming it wanted to arm vigilante groups in the state. The way and manner the state government imported the arms allegedly without police approval has since become a subject of investigation which is said to be attracting attention of many within the security circles.

A security official confessed under the condition of anonymity that importation of arms without prior approval is a violation of the law. Said he: “for a state government to have done that, it is a matter to be taken seriously.”

Though the Zamfara State government has since justified its action on the need to combat criminal gangs operating freely in the state, keen watchers of the 2015 drama, however, point out that arming vigilantes in the countdown to 2015 sent mixed signals. Many people believe that once Zamafara succeeds in its move, other state governments would follow suit, leading to proliferation of arms in the country and a potentially explosive electoral year in 2015.

While the controversy over Zamfara arms importation is still boiling, a tanker filled with assorted arms and ammunition was impounded on the Kebbi-Zamafara axis with the source of the importation still unknown. With hundreds of such tankers in remote parts of northwestern Nigeria, fears are spreading that there may be a deliberate program to acquire arms by some unknown elements in the northern parts of the country ahead of 2015 elections.

Four days after the tanker was impounded, another arms cache was discovered in the sleepy state of Jigawa with exchange of fire between security agencies and those described as Boko Haram operatives. Security analysts, however, faulted the reference to Boko Haram, as Jigawa has never witnessed any Boko Haram attack since the insurgency started. Others claimed the exchange of fire did not explain the owner of the arms or who masterminded their stockpile in the state.

Another source told Sunday Tribune of the fear being nursed in that sector, saying “the situation is scary. We cannot say for sure that all these arms are imported by islamists. We cannot prove that. We can also not prove that politicians are behind the caches of arms for electoral purposes. All what we know for sure is that there is an arms build-up in the core North,” a security official, said.

While the real motive behind the huge arms stockpile is still under investigation by security agencies, the statement credited to the Chief of Staff to the President, Chief Mike Oghiadohme , warning against civil war is cited by other analysts to argue that the presidency already has more facts over security situation in the country and, particularly, about arms build-up in northern part of the country than it is letting out. Oghiadohme had called attention to the tragedy of the last civil war, warning that leaders and elders should beware of actions and utterances capable of plunging the nation into another conflict.

The arms build-up situation has become an open issue within the Nigerian military, which is battling insurgency in the North-East. Though the military is not ruling out political opportunism, it however suspects the Islamists to be behind the arms build-up, while the wider intelligence community are fingering political forces as being neck-deep in the menace.

Sagir Musa,spokesman of the Joint Task Force in Borno, while confirming the arms proliferation gave greater insight into the problem facing the North and the country as a whole in a recent statement on the issue.

Said he: “Nigeria’s borders are massive with hundreds of footpaths crisscrossing to neighboring countries of Cameroon, Chad and Niger with links to Mali, Libya and Sudan. From conservative estimates by locals, there are well over 250 footpaths from Damaturu/Maiduguri axis that link or lead direct to Cameroon, Chad or Niger. These paths, which are mostly unknown to security agencies, are unmanned, unprotected and have continued to serve as conveyor belts for arms and ammunition trafficking into Nigeria.

“It is disheartening and unfortunate that the “merchants of death” have since devised methods to beat security agencies at the borders, chief among them, through the footpaths. These methods include the use of camels, donkeys and cows to traffic arms, ammunition and drugs such as cocaine into Nigeria. The fact that the weapons are small, light and collapsible makes it easy to be concealed and moved on camels and donkeys’ backs in a specially crafted skin or thatched bags mainly meant for the illegal “expedition” undetected. Similarly, some cows and grains merchants in the North-East sub-region of the country device means of hiding cache of arms and ammunition in empty fuel tankers, vehicle engines and bags of grains.

“The “grains” are transported in large number via trucks, trailers, lorries and old model pickup vans and Jeeps with little attention given to them by security agents. The use of Jega-type of tricycles (KEKE-NAPEP) as well as camels, donkeys, and cows (moving in flocks) to deceive, hide and conveniently traffic arms in some parts of the North are ways hitherto unknown, not well known”, Musa noted.

He explained further that “the Libyan and Malian rebels are desperate to exchange arms for money to Boko Haram terrorists, their financiers and collaborators as the sect has since been affiliated to Al-Qaida in the Maghreb. This has added to the overwhelming challenge of the influx of illegal aliens, arms, ammunition and sophisticated IED materials into the country and an efficient and effective fight against terrorism,” Musa had stated.

Sunday Tribune was, however, told that the political angle is already taking the center stage of discreet investigation into the discoveries. Already, it was gathered that investigation into the Kano arms caches has been extended to foreign soil, while the security agencies are said to be mounting pressure to ensure that Zamfara vigilantes are not armed with weapons.

As the arms influx expands, the questions on the lips of keen security analysts are many. Who is preparing for war? Is the North becoming a Somalia? And is the South too secretly building up its own arms, and/or has not been undetected? Could the flexing of muscles by politicians be a subtle declaration of war over 2015?

Only a thorough investigation by the security agencies can provide the necessary answers.

Sources include Sunday Tribune

IPOB/PDP/TAN can say anything to cast Buhari in Negative terms, they can even blame Buhari for killing a dead man. Tell me how this story concerns Buhari.
The report says "The US Army report released in June this year " Please tell us which year. It cannot certainly be the year 2015.

This so called report is a mish-mash of conjecture and wishfull thinking based on snipets of unrelated events.

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Re: Beware Of Another Civil War, US Report "Nigerian Unity In The Balance" by Omololu007(m): 3:24pm On Nov 27, 2015
bugzbunny:

Asari is a confused convert... We dash u
You are actually d pig...fool
wombraider who know your papa for your village,,asari dokunbo is more popular than all your family member modafvcker.....even ijaw is not united

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