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If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. - Politics (3) - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. (7012 Views)

Nigeria Won't Have Survived If GEJ Had Won 2015 Presidential Election – Soyinka / Economy Will Pick Up In 2017, Says FG / Poor Economy Will Destroy Buhari’s Reign – Fayose (2) (3) (4)

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Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by OlayinkaFawaz(m): 7:24am On Feb 16, 2016
GOD knows the best brogrin
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by dokunbam(m): 7:38am On Feb 16, 2016
obailala:

Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://abokifx.com/previous-rates-2/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.asp

(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by Proudlyngwa(m): 7:39am On Feb 16, 2016
obailala:

Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://abokifx.com/previous-rates-2/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.asp

(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.
Very lovely write up,
Keep it up

1 Like

Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by tuniski: 8:58am On Feb 16, 2016
tosin2013:



1. This was the exact same reason, babangida govt gave us during SAP of the 80s, devalue and stabilize the currency, we all know the rest of the story.


2. Which foreign investors? The paper investors like JP Morgan? Or the saboteurs like MTN? Infact which investor has left since buhari took over? FDI will flow if we solve our infrastructural deficit and not due to crude oil price.

3. Borrowing under gej would av being a big irony, wouldn't it? For a govt with the highest revenue in nigerian history for over 5yrs to start borrowing with 7 months of shortfall of revenue shows the excellent management of the economy.

4. Even a neonate knows the budget was sabotaged! Dont worry we will trash out the perpetrators. Moreover aw many times do we need to explain the importance of welfare in reviving a struggling economy? Social welfare packages was one the most important instruments used in the USA during recession. Go figure.

5 you got a point here though! But the APC needs to inform the masses the extent of the ineffectual buffoon!


1. That Babangida gave the right reasons but, did the 'wrong' thing is not a Dismissal of what is right! The naira must be stable not necessarily strong! Having a weak currency is not same as having weak economy. However, being in denial of obviously weak economy thereby, defending by foreign reserve what ought to reflect current trade realities is not even shifting the inevitable but, speeding and multiplying it.

2. Twisted! Investment banks are delisting us and u simply dismiss that as paper investment. At the same breathe, you identified structural deficit gap as a clog. We must tell ourselves the truth, the solution to our structural deficit in a global economy must be a combination of we and them! Isolation is dangerous!!! We don't have the cash to close our doors no nation ever has and the world won't Wait.


3. At no time had nigeria all the money we need for our structural and developmental challenges. There is nothing wrong with borrowing, absolutely nothing. However, it is what u do with borrowing that matters. Borrowing by GEJ then and even now is the reality. We must stop telling ourselves the lie that we are a rich country, we are not! Rather we are a potentially rich nation.

4. Another lame blame game. The budget wasn't sabotaged,the govt showed crass incompetence. When buhari came on and was/is wasting valuable time, you cheered him on as a cleaner doing sanitation. Then he sacked perm secs and replaced them with his angels, u cheered! He spite ministers as noisemakers and civil servants as the koko, u cheered! Now, his angels have messed up big time and his do nothing 'body language' have delivered a national embarrassment termed #budgetofCorupption. U scream sabotage by who, Buhari?

Finally, baffoonery is not in itself bad, it is the adjective qualifying it. Having said that, if only we have a president with basic temperament for democracy and a world view that capture the essence of leadership. As in the president being the chief marketer and promoter of his nation. Not a CEO demarketing nigeria!

Buhari doesn't get it and he must accept he doesn't! That way he may be helped. Being the president does not confer a know all garb on anyone including a him. The hallmark of sound leadership is galvanizing best brains and hands to deliver masterstrokes! Luis Enrique doesn't play the ball but, ensure messi and co deliver the targets!

3 Likes 2 Shares

Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by shameseun: 2:54pm On Feb 16, 2016
Sibrah:
Stupidity is a choice.
As of March 28, naira exchange at N227 to a Dollar. Had Jona held power there would av bin no magic with which he could have run the economy. At $65/b he depleted reserves, borrowed, was eyeing VAT(tax) increase, more senseless privatization, had already signified the end to amnesty program. All these Buhari has avoided so far at $35/b.

"As of March 28, naira exchange at N227 to a Dollar."
This shows you are not sincere in your argument. First reconfirm your records and remove bias in your presentation, and also conduct a research on the indices that contributed to the present situation we are in. Just do the search yourself do not rely on what you read on the pages of newspapers.
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by gorecwears(m): 3:47pm On Feb 16, 2016
Things won't have been this bad,eg the exchange rate disparity was as a result of poor fiscal policy strategy of PMB mediocre economic team. And it will get worse because there is now a huge tension in the system, people are now hoarding foreign currencies.

1 Like

Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by coolscott(m): 5:02pm On Feb 16, 2016
obailala:

Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://abokifx.com/previous-rates-2/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.asp

(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.
[size=13pt]Please what has hurt us for very long has been the zero direction of an economic policy. We have been waiting for this since. Foreign investors stalled because of this.

Months ago, I went to collect my earnings from Dealdey office in PH (although I knew they could and shd pay into my account). The place was locked and the other businesses in the vicinity did not know where they had gone.

When I called the rep assigned to me in Dealdey, he said they have pulled out of Port Harcourt because the financiers are holding back on their investments due to the now uncertain economic direction of Nigeria.

In how many places did this replicate itself in Nigeria? We will never know. We will only know that things are far worse off and that whereas economic policy has not had a continuity, it has been replaced by a limbo that even the budget failed to erase considering the mess that was made of it.

I too hoped Buhari would succeed because I like my country. But why should I willfully become a culprit in deceiving my own self.

We hope these 4 years pass quickly so we can have a breath of fresh air.

As a side note, I wished the APC had selected Fashiola as ticket bearer.
Problem with Fashola now is he has become too involved with this administration, some folks my
transfer some of their negative views of it to him.
[/size]

1 Like

Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by slimfit1(m): 5:51pm On Feb 16, 2016
baralatie:
Actually if you look at it.GEJ would have beyond doubt perform and managed the present economy far,far,far and away better than PMB. But the problems would be
1,will PMB allow peace to reign upon the country after another loss in the elections(2011).your guess will be as good as mine.b.h sympathetism and outright chaos in the north would have spurn out of govt control(killing of anybody south and east).
2,will an APC governors and APC Assembly work with the president to even pass the budget remember the APC blocked the budget in his time.
3,with the outcome of the elections in favour of GEJ.will the s.e sit back and watch daylight murder in the north and not retaliate bringing about the second civil war!


So you can see the decision that was placed on Gej shoulders!
I doubt if PMB is bold and strong enough to deliver the successes that Gej had and avert the chaos of the last election by that one phone call.

But it is hoped that PMB should stop dancing with these broom wavers in the name of change and deliver quality governance


The rich would have been the main victims because everyone just wanted Jonathan out.
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by BushidoBlue(m): 6:47pm On Feb 16, 2016
Having browsed the length and breadth of nairaland....

We hereby bring to you the best count of the day people... enjoy....



tuniski:



1. That Babangida gave the right reasons but, did the 'wrong' thing is not a Dismissal of what is right! The naira must be stable not necessarily strong! Having a weak currency is not same as having weak economy. However, being in denial of obviously weak economy thereby, defending by foreign reserve what ought to reflect current trade realities is not even shifting the inevitable but, speeding and multiplying it.

2. Twisted! Investment banks are delisting us and u simply dismiss that as paper investment. At the same breathe, you identified structural deficit gap as a clog. We must tell ourselves the truth, the solution to our structural deficit in a global economy must be a combination of we and them! Isolation is dangerous!!! We don't have the cash to close our doors no nation ever has and the world won't Wait.


3. At no time had nigeria all the money we need for our structural and developmental challenges. There is nothing wrong with borrowing, absolutely nothing. However, it is what u do with borrowing that matters. Borrowing by GEJ then and even now is the reality. We must stop telling ourselves the lie that we are a rich country, we are not! Rather we are a potentially rich nation.

4. Another lame blame game. The budget wasn't sabotaged,the govt showed crass incompetence. When buhari came on and was/is wasting valuable time, you cheered him on as a cleaner doing sanitation. Then he sacked perm secs and replaced them with his angels, u cheered! He spite ministers as noisemakers and civil servants as the koko, u cheered! Now, his angels have messed up big time and his do nothing 'body language' have delivered a national embarrassment termed #budgetofCorupption. U scream sabotage by who, Buhari?

Finally, baffoonery is not in itself bad, it is the adjective qualifying it. Having said that, if only we have a president with basic temperament for democracy and a world view that capture the essence of leadership. As in the president being the chief marketer and promoter of his nation. Not a CEO demarketing nigeria!

Buhari doesn't get it and he must accept he doesn't! That way he may be helped. Being the president does not confer a know all garb on anyone including a him. The hallmark of sound leadership is galvanizing best brains and hands to deliver masterstrokes! Luis Enrique doesn't play the ball but, ensure messi and co deliver the targets!

1 Like 1 Share

Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by bokohalal(m): 7:22pm On Feb 16, 2016
obailala:

Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://abokifx.com/previous-rates-2/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.asp

(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.

E-wailers are gonna wail some more after reading the above.
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by spinoff: 6:36am On Feb 17, 2016
obailala:

Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://abokifx.com/previous-rates-2/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.asp

(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by tpiar: 4:59pm On Feb 18, 2016
shameseun:
But GEJ handed GMB a better Nigeria than where we are today. At least $1 was 200 as at May 2015.
Buhari's delay in appointing his ministers made foreign investors to lose hope in Nigeria which led to the exit of the likes of JP Morgan. This increased the trend in capital flight as a result of lack of confidence in the Nigeria's policy or policy less economy for too long.
And l tell you, the implication of this we can see in our naira shortly after their exit. This is so because as they are selling their stocks in naira, they will seek foreign currency for onward transfer to their countries, thereby mounting more pressure on our naira.


When did JP Morgan leave?
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by nwaanambra1(m): 5:50pm On Feb 18, 2016
wirinet:


Few people earn my likes, i give you 2. This your post should be bookmarked and pasted anytime PDP/IPOB says Buhari destroyed Nigeria economy. If GEJ had won the elections, there would not even have been an economy talk less of destroying it. That Buhari was able to keep the Nigeria economy afloat with crude selling at less than $30/barrel, with low foreign reserve and savings is nothing short than a miracle.

sometimes when i imagine what would have happened if GEJ is still in power, shivers run down my spin.

For Buhari still able to hold this country together at this point in time, is nothing short of spiritual and scientific miracle! undecided



as for the op, some are born to be super M. O. R. O. N.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by otubujohn(m): 7:02pm On Feb 18, 2016
K
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by colp2015: 7:15pm On Feb 18, 2016
PiperAlpha:
Yes you're right. Gej would have turned himself to Merlin and performed some abracadabra to keep the oil price at $110/bbl. Afterall, he's goodluck.
He would also have used his invisible technology to fight yam eaters and people who like Dasuki, Tompolo et al who raped this country blind would have been given an award.
All hail Gej - The lord and savior of the yam eaters
Simply hilarious!
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by shameseun: 9:28pm On Feb 18, 2016
tpiar:



When did JP Morgan leave?

Onyea siri na gini mere ya?
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by tpiar: 10:52pm On Feb 18, 2016
shameseun:


Onyea siri na gini mere ya?




are you Igbo?
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by shameseun: 12:30am On Feb 19, 2016
tpiar:





are you Igbo?

No, Chinese!
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by rotimioceans(m): 7:53am On May 01, 2016
tuniski:


1. The real reason for the unprecedented depreciation of the naira to 345/$ is the sluggishness of the current govt. It was 197/$ as of 29/may/2015. A GEJ's govt would have devalued and create a forex regime stability. The decline in oil revenue though critical and frustrating, there is no way out of a weakening naira but, having stability will largely cushion this spiraling depreciation and 'technical devaluation'. 200 to 345 within 8months and still falling is a disaster.

2. FDI (Foreign Direct Investments) won't have ceased and declined. Investors work within a stable forex regime and clear directional govt. Stability allows for planning and execution. This will ultimately mitigate against the unabated increase in headline inflation. Jobs will be saved and the Q on Q sectoral declines would have been stemmed.

3. Borrowing. GEJ would have effectively borrowed as needed frontally as a proactive measure. It is clear to all, buhari is having difficulty borrowing as its stand due to the neophyte nature of his economic team promoting welfarist packages during a period of austerity! It remains a mockery of economics that a nation facing dwindling revenue is politically offering welfarism. 500bn on waste during a time of desperate need for investment in capex is sure a no no to lenders.

4. Structural shift. This govt as seen from the scandal of budgeting only say one thing and does another. The first and most significant policy instrument of the govt has exposed the hypocrisy of the administration. Diversification has always been part of every govt for decades. However, the emphasis and political will to radically make the shift has been largely lacking. Taxation is now being drummed up as if it is new, instead of the norm even as the active economic agents are facing hard times occasioned by instability. So who do u tax? U don't drive away investors locally and globally and expect to increase revenue via tax. A GEJ would have continue to attract more investments.

5. Psychology of govt: the current govt blaming policy and a victim mentality have been a negative signal to all. They campaigned and threatened parallel govt should they not win. Now they have won and with no post election litigation for the first time in our democratic journey. The immediate goodwill was massive but, has now been replaced by blaming and jerk kneel response to governance. Great leaders are made through hard times! Obama came in during global meltdown and a USA facing two wars in Iraq n Afghanistan but, didn't make blaming Bush/republicans governance! Today, unemployment has falling from the 10.4% high of 2009 to. 4.7% today.
Things won't positively change playing the victim for a mandate u campaigned Vigorously across the country for, no it won't!



Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
https://naijapricecheck.com/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.asp

(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by denko(m): 8:29am On May 01, 2016
Do you need to debate it, Buhari has been zombies dream killer since 1984, he's so dumb.
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by Ofunaofu: 8:33am On May 01, 2016
obailala:

Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://abokifx.com/previous-rates-2/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.asp

(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.

I must confess, you nailed it with these analysis
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by londoner: 8:33am On May 01, 2016
I don't think it would be this bad either because GEJ would have hit the ground running and chose his cabinet faster. This would have sent a clear signal of confidence to investors who were already lining up especially in the power sector.

The only thing is though that people would have rioted and it would not have been peaceful after the election.

1 Like

Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by dammytosh: 8:36am On May 01, 2016
obailala:

Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://abokifx.com/previous-rates-2/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.asp

(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.

I am jealous of your intelligent analysis. When you are neutral and objective you will be able to use your mental capacity to the fullest but once you are blind with sentiment, intelligence disappears and nothing but show of shame.

I av nothing else to say but to endorse it with

+1,000,000,000,000,000 likes

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by dammytosh: 8:40am On May 01, 2016
denko:
Do you need to debate it, Buhari has been our dream killer since 1984, he's so dumb.

Same excuse Daddy gave for not making it in 1984. You have inherited the same thing.

Your dream killer not mine.
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by dammytosh: 8:41am On May 01, 2016
nwaanambra1:


sometimes when i imagine what would have happened if GEJ is still in power, shivers run down my spin.

For Buhari still able to hold this country together at this point in time, is nothing short of spiritual and scientific miracle! undecided



as for the op, some are born to be super M. O. R. O. N.

Auto correct .

Super Mario or Super M0r0n.

Hahahaha
dnt mind them they know but loyalty neutralised their sense of reasoning.
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by tuniski: 10:00am On May 01, 2016
rotimioceans:




Let me tell you a short story of what happened when the oil prices began to crash, just between October 2014 and May 2015 when GEJ handed over:

(1) The Naira fell from N166/167 to N220 to $1, meanwhile oil still sold at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://digitaloceans.org/

(2) The nation's foreign reserves dropped from ~$38.5bn to $28.7billion, that's a drop of about $10billion in 7 months, with oil still selling at about $65/barrel as at May 2015.
http://www.cenbank.org/intops/Reserve.asp

(3) Nigeria's GDP growth rate which was maintained at an average of 6-7% suddenly dropped to its lowest since 1999 of 2.3%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-growth-annual

(4) Due to a severe cash crunch occasioned by fall in oil prices, the Nigerian government had to borrow about $2.4billion dollars early in 2015 to pay salaries. The FG could not also pay accumulated arrears of fuel subsidy since August 2014 to petroleum importers (this led to the fuel scarcity in May 2015 just before the handover and Lai Mohammed also blamed this owed fuel subsidy as the reason behind the fuel scarcity late last year)
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/05/nigeria-borrows-to-pay-salaries-with-cash-crunch-worsening/
http://www.channelstv.com/2015/12/21/lai-mohammed-blames-fuel-crisis-on-past-administration/

Note that all of the above happened at a time when oil still sold above $65/barrel; today oil sells for about $30/barrel

Now I do not want to imagine the kind of economic humanitarian crisis that would have enveloped Nigeria had GEJ continued in his usual manner of dipping his hands into the forex reserves; only God saved us as a nation else we would have been standing on long queues by now to receive one cup of rice daily from W.H.O or UN outlets.


Did I just hear you say continuity of those four (4) negative events I just pointed out above?
Are you aware that the FG under Buhari has not borrowed to pay salaries? It even bailed out the states
Are you aware the FG has paid off subsidy arrears owed to oil importers even since the days of GEJ?
Are you aware the FG/CBN has been able to maintain virtually the same forex reserve amount that it inherited till date?... Unlike GEJ that crashed it by $10billion in 7 months of oil price crash?
And now all these have been done when oil sells for less than half of what it was when GEJ was handing over and you think the present government is more useless?? I challenge you to tell me that these figures and indices I have written here are wrong, kindly explain to us your 'empirical' evidence.



All the long narrative about what happened when oil price was 65$ is just story. Bottom line is that buhari's command and control economic template is the basket upon which the economic meltdown is hatcted!!!

Governance needs imagination an outside of the box thought process approach not the boxed mentality of buhari who is, to worsened the situation, is surrounded by yes men. He doesn't get it and those with him can't just tell him so.

If we don't have petroleum won't we survive? Any submission that anchors all on oil revenue instead of soundness of thought,imagination,weighty economic team with global presence is whacked. Until buhari accept that he as president is essentially a galvanizer not the all knowing the govt will continue to fumble!

1 Like

Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by Sant1m: 10:58am On May 01, 2016
bakynes:

You are a kid that am sure of. To think if not for corruption, Nigeria would have been better than England is just a kid's talk. Do you know how old is England a former World power.

To answer the OP's question, Nigeria would have been worse of why because Nigeria is a mono economy so once Oil price starts dwindling then there is a problem. Jonathan never saved, when oil prices were @ an all time high, he depleted the Foreign reserve in his term, he flooded the economy with too much dollars during the elections, he never took steps to diversify the economy, never did anything to improve local production to help our foreign exchange earning. So Buhari inherited a bad Nigerian economy so you can't be quick to blame him. Blame Jonathan but if after Buhari's term he doesn't bring us out of this problem then we can begin to blame him.
Gejt was like a four year old boy who went to the presidency with candy mistaken the presidency for a play store, he got himself preoccupied with calling up other kids to come up for play and a candy party, there as parting gifts he gave out foreign reserve to his play mates. those onlookers from outside not knowing what was happening saw his presidency as a party thing. For PMB as a four years old kid, he is in the office with sledge hammer, what he will end up doing with it, we still have three more years to conclude.
Re: If GEJ Had Won I Don't Think The Economy Will Be This Worse. by CecyAdrian(f): 11:19am On May 01, 2016
baralatie:

Let me put a direct question to you!
If GEJ had won the presidential elections,do you think PMB and the North and its ApC anti govt slogans will seat back and watch GEj administration to govern in peace with no violence outbreak around the country!


What is wrong with you, if you do not have any more of your lousy points to dish out why not keep quiet and learn, free your heart of hate and look towards a new light. We are talking about Economy here and you keep dragging in election violence into it.

Base your answer on what the Op asked. Stick to the economy of the nation and leave the north and violence alone

Ok, magician, since you know the heart of PMB well and his plans should in case he did not win, can you tell us.

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