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Stock Market Tips For Nigerians - Investment (74) - Nairaland

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Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Robroy: 11:35pm On Sep 06, 2007
It seems like Dangote Flour is too high and might not perform so well after all the hype has fizzled out. So instead of N 15 per Dangote share, possible buying N200k max, how about taking a big risk and sink into Union Diagnostic at approx N2. For about the same N 200k thats a whole lot more of shares that might rise to N8. Does this seem wise to anyone? Is it too risky a move?
Gurus over to una smiley
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by diva4eva(f): 11:41pm On Sep 06, 2007
My people
Pls after filling the union diagonistic PP form, where do i submit it. can i submit it to my stockbroker or i must take it to cashcraft. PLS REPLY SOMEBODY grin
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by crazyT(m): 11:49pm On Sep 06, 2007
@ Rob-Roy


I guess you are making a lot of sense because why should I put my money with Dangote that is already over priced? I better keep my money with Union Diagnostic that can (at least) triple my money in the same time frame as Dangote.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by diva4eva(f): 12:33am On Sep 07, 2007
hello all
PLS IF IM FILLING A FORM FOR PUBLIC OFFER AND IM REQUESTED TO WRITE MY CSCS ALC NUMBER, which number do i write. Is it the alpha numberic number or the one with just numerals. urgent reply needed. tanx
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by goldenson(m): 12:45am On Sep 07, 2007
Question for the Gurus and All

Is it possible for someone to subscribe for 1 million shares of UNion Diag. in this PP and get all of them. This is considering the total number of shares offered as only 550 million.

Please any good reply is welcome
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 12:53am On Sep 07, 2007
@WindyWendy
I like what you have done considering the forecasts are really too good to be true, making a conservative projection based on established previous performance.
PAT for 2006 is 52.179m (page 18 of prospectus) so i would expect a PAT of higher than 42.6m in 2007.
I tried something similar by using PAT growth rate of 25% in 07, 30% in 08, 20% in 09.
This gives a pe of 24 in 2009 BUT even this is assuming the company meets 20% of its proposed target which is very conservative.

It all boils down to the company's prospects and difficulty of analyzing a growth stock as opposed to value stocks. In any case, i think union diagnostic is a touch and go investment. Its one of those that COULD. I wouldn't think to invest a lot but if the company goes anywhere near its forecast, we'll be smiling all the way. The fact that they are listing very soon also helps.

@diva4eva, i think u need to take the form to cashcraft
@goldenson, its possible
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 12:56am On Sep 07, 2007
@Akinnin NC
HOLD you flour mills and wapco for at least one mo year. HOLDDDDDD!!!!

@Jehosaphat
Long time, how body?
Dangote Flour:, its not cheap but if you are ready to buy and hold for a while, you'll make money. But the fact that there could be allotment woes doesn't help. Final decision is up to you
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by akininNC(m): 2:15am On Sep 07, 2007
@ Temmie,
Thanks for the info, any suggestions on the rest of the portfolio?. Thanks again and sorry for my ignorance I am new to the mkt and I have just started going back home after a long absence but I have started to feel the pull. Any other inputs would be appreciated.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by jehosaphat: 3:05am On Sep 07, 2007
Oga Temmie 10.
Body dey inside cloth o! Thanks for your prompt response bro. You are one of the bulwarks of Nairaland Business forum.
So i was wondering if I should just purchase both Flour Mills and Dangote Flour, just like owning Wapco and BCC or Obajana ( when it comes out). Invariably, one of them would outperform in a given sector and I'd gain. If they both perform well, all the better. How u see this idea?

What's ur take on: A bundle of Union Diagnostic ( high risk, it just might flop) vs Dangote. I am feeling extremely lucky so I dont mind taking high risks. The greater the risk the greater the reward abi?
Lastly, How can I get access to the Union Diagnostic shares from outside town?
Thanks in advance bro, with all this knowledge when u get I can imagine the size of ur profit margin grin grin grin
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by jehosaphat: 3:10am On Sep 07, 2007
@ Temmie 10
I read somewhere that Zenith was planning a PO. Is that true? Have u heard anything from the grapevine?
For all this help when u dey help us, God go butter your bread, add Jam sef! If you like mayonnaise e go add am put! grin
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by goldenson(m): 3:28am On Sep 07, 2007
Temmie10:

@WindyWendy
I like what you have done considering the forecasts are really too good to be true, making a conservative projection based on established previous performance.
PAT for 2006 is 52.179m (page 18 of prospectus) so i would expect a PAT of higher than 42.6m in 2007.
I tried something similar by using PAT growth rate of 25% in 07, 30% in 08, 20% in 09.
This gives a pe of 24 in 2009 BUT even this is assuming the company meets 20% of its proposed target which is very conservative.

It all boils down to the company's prospects and difficulty of analyzing a growth stock as opposed to value stocks. In any case, i think union diagnostic is a touch and go investment. Its one of those that COULD. I wouldn't think to invest a lot but if the company goes anywhere near its forecast, we'll be smiling all the way. The fact that they are listing very soon also helps.

@diva4eva, i think u need to take the form to cashcraft
@goldenson, its possible


Thanks Temmie10 for the prompt answer.
Please do you know the best way for me to get my hands on these Union Diag shares. I am contemplating filling out and scaning the form to a friend who will submit it to cashcraft with a bank draft. Will they accept a scanned form with signature or are they supposed to accept only the original filled out forms .
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by easimoni(m): 3:40am On Sep 07, 2007
jehosaphat:

@ Temmie 10
I read somewhere that Zenith was planning a PO. Is that true? Have u heard anything from the grapevine?
For all this help when u dey help us, God go butter your bread, add Jam sef! If you like mayonnaise e go add am put! grin

I read that Zenith has registered an additional 5B shares. It seems the plan is to raise N250B by selling 5B shares at N50 ea. Watch for Zenith's price to climb towards N60 so they can sell to us at a "discount". It'll probably happen around year-end.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by egoldman(m): 5:43am On Sep 07, 2007
Does anyone have the website link of Union Diagnostic ?
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by frankiriri(m): 6:55am On Sep 07, 2007
Rob-roy:

It seems like Dangote Flour is too high and might not perform so well after all the hype has fizzled out. So instead of N 15 per Dangote share, possible buying N200k max, how about taking a big risk and sink into Union Diagnostic at approx N2. For about the same N 200k thats a whole lot more of shares that might rise to N8. Does this seem wise to anyone? Is it too risky a move?
Gurus over to una smiley
I definitely feel you. But the thing is that Dangote may prove to be a more liquid stock. Of the two I would recommend Dangote for short/meduim term investments while Union Diagnostics is strictly a meduim/long term buy.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by egoldman(m): 7:01am On Sep 07, 2007
Mr Frank how you dey ? long time old pal cheesy cheesy
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by frankiriri(m): 7:42am On Sep 07, 2007
egoldman:

Mr Frank how you dey ? long time old pal cheesy cheesy
I am fine oh. Though ill health had eaten into my profit angry.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by frankiriri(m): 7:49am On Sep 07, 2007
easimoni:

I read that Zenith has registered an additional 5B shares. It seems the plan is to raise N250B by selling 5B shares at N50 ea. Watch for Zenith's price to climb towards N60 so they can sell to us at a "discount". It'll probably happen around year-end.
At their last AGM they got approval to raise money.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by frankiriri(m): 8:07am On Sep 07, 2007
@ windywendy
I just went through your computation.
As usual it is very incisive. I see the point you are making about the unrealistic growth plans. It think their problem basically is one of not appointing the right officials. As I said earlier the prospectus is a disappointment. Even with the conservative estimates I think that the stock is still worth buying.
With the improved profile that comes with a public listing I expect that they would be able to garner more business than if they were privately owned. So I expect tremendous growth rates.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Tmoni(m): 9:23am On Sep 07, 2007
@ easimoni, mr frank, temmie, windywendy et al,

considering zenith coming out with a PO again, can we buy at modays price which shld be in the region of N52 and hope a capital appreciation later on in the year, might take a loan for it, is it worth it
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Tmoni(m): 9:25am On Sep 07, 2007
thanks for the comments,
lovely post from windywendy
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by shigidi(m): 11:32am On Sep 07, 2007
@ easimoni, temmie 10,
there is a mater that bothers me cry cry
its about this stock brokers capitalisation thing. my brokers are quite small, securities solutions limited in foreshore towers. i dont think they will make that 1 billion so what happens, should i transfer to another firm or what
i need to understand this a bit more cry cry undecided
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by shigidi(m): 12:12pm On Sep 07, 2007
@ temmie 10, this private placement thing is new to me, do u have to wait for certificates as well? and is there preferential allotment(i.e is there a chance ur money will be returned).
pls reply cos this union diagnostics thing is proving very interesting.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 12:37pm On Sep 07, 2007
@Shigidi
About the stockbroking capitalisation.
Even in a case where your brokers do not meet the capitalisation, you money is not going to be locked-in or anything.
To be safe tho, you might want to consider having an account elsewhere and gradually migrate your holdings.
Migrating everything immediately can have undesired effects.
There is possibility of preferential allotment in pp, but most pp's are nowhere near full subscription.
Frank has a a good point about liquidity though. Union Diagnostics seems long term at best.
Oga Frank, more health to your body o.

@Tmoni
thing is i hav no idea when the po will be so i wouldnt know if its either too early or late to take position BUT Zenith is definitely planning a BIG 250BN naira po.
@Jehosaphat
Actually, when i went thru dangote prospectus, it made me realied how cheap Flour Mills was in comparison grin, Funny huh? shocked
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by shigidi(m): 12:48pm On Sep 07, 2007
Temmie10:

@Shigidi
About the stockbroking capitalisation.
Even in a case where your brokers do not meet the capitalisation, you money is not going to be locked-in or anything.
To be safe tho, you might want to consider having an account elsewhere and gradually migrate your holdings.
Migrating everything immediately can have undesired effects.
as always ur opinion and ur help is greatly appreciated, but what undesired effects are u talking about.
and u didnt answer the question bout if certificates are also issued in pps or if it goes staright to ur CSCS
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by shigidi(m): 12:51pm On Sep 07, 2007
Temmie10:

@Shigidi
About the stockbroking capitalisation.
Even in a case where your brokers do not meet the capitalisation, you money is not going to be locked-in or anything.
To be safe tho, you might want to consider having an account elsewhere and gradually migrate your holdings.
Migrating everything immediately can have undesired effects.
There is possibility of preferential allotment in pp, but most pp's are nowhere near full subscription.


as always temmie10, ur help is greatly appreciated, but what undesired effects are u talking about?
and u didnt answer the question about if pps issue certs or it goes straight to ur CSCS.
thanks bro cheesy
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 1:01pm On Sep 07, 2007
Just as in any business, no stockbroker wants you to pack your things and run away overnight so they will not be the most helpful when you attempt to move. So its good to apply wisdom and move gradually. Just a hint.
Yes pp will send a certificate.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by yodiyokun(f): 1:18pm On Sep 07, 2007
Temmie10:

@Jehosaphat
Actually, when i went through dangote prospectus, it made me realied how cheap Flour Mills was in comparison grin, Funny huh? shocked


Temmie,

But Flour mills does not have the same sentiments attached to dangote flour mills.

The current market price of flour mill does not help matters- the possiblity of dangote appreciating 25 % is higher than Flour mills.

That is my own view? However, you can expand further on your reasons.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by yodiyokun(f): 1:22pm On Sep 07, 2007
@easimoni,

My brother, I know you are with Lead capital and i know you do not like their services but It seems I am headed that way because of so many factors.

Please abeg biko, what is their commission like? and who is your account officer? can you view your portfolio online etc.

Please give me as much info as you can on them.

Thanks a lot.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 1:32pm On Sep 07, 2007
yodiyokun:

Temmie,

But Flour mills does not have the same sentiments attached to dangote flour mills.

The current market price of flour mill does not help matters- the possiblity of dangote appreciating 25 % is higher than Flour mills.

That is my own view? However, you can expand further on your reasons.

As i stated in my earlier post, the high price for dangote looks like the premium which is being paid for the name, the sentiments, the demand of investors.

Have a look at my own analysis:
Dangote is being offered at a trailing pe of 35.7 and a forward pe(07) of 27.2, then a huge leap and a further forward pe of 10 in 2008.

Flour Mills is trading at trailing pe of 15.86 and a forward pe of 12.

Summary
the figures are not what really support dangote, its the sentiment and the demand. these are not always stable.
NASCON had more demand than supply, it had good sentiment, it had the dangote name and it has not been a runaway success by any means.
Having said that i expect both to do well, in easimoni's word's "i can only tell you what the figures tell me"
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 1:36pm On Sep 07, 2007
@ALL

I just saw today's closing prices, and insurance is on an amazing run grin grin grin grin grin shocked
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by yodiyokun(f): 1:49pm On Sep 07, 2007
Temmie10:

@ALL

I just saw today's closing prices, and insurance is on an amazing run grin grin grin grin grin shocked



Yeepa,

I was hoping to get in on insurance this month but it seems I am too late. I am not ready to buy in the middle of a bullish run that may not last. Please join me in praying for the bears.
Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 2:11pm On Sep 07, 2007
yodiyokun:

Yeepa,

I was hoping to get in on insurance this month but it seems I am too late. I am not ready to buy in the middle of a bullish run that may not last. Please join me in praying for the bears.

The bears have been around for close to 3 months,
Everyody was moaning,
and you want them back so soon eh grin

my fingers are crossed on this one too

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