Purehuman:


I think you do not know the street realities in the north because you do not stay in the north. The winning percentage buhari got in 2015 in the north will not be replicated as far as PDP do not field Atiku. The Northern states like Gombe will be difficult for him to climb because of the non-hausa majority in the state and the distaste of leadership in the state. No project was done by the federal government and as you all know, the state government has started his antibuhari politics in the state to secure it for himself. Taraba hates the Fulanis now more than ever and I doubt apart from the Fulani communities, he will win the herdsmen affected areas in the state. Same goes to Kano. Kwankwaso will demolish Bihari's dream in this state. His followers are the most loyal servants in the country. They are even begging him to go back to PDP. There is a rumour going round that Buhari is sending money to the Yorubas and neglecting them. They are now eating that propaganda like sweet meat now. Some are vowing that they are going to show him. There was a showdown in the women's leader house. They were insulting the leader for deceiving the women of the state to vote for Buhari in 2015. It didn't end well for the lady.

Niger state might neglect Buhari. Plateau votes will reduce, Kaduna will remain the same, Benue will be nonexistent. He will still win his core northern states like sokoto, zamfara, Katsina, etc but the vote turnouts will reduce drastically.

Buhari needs to appease IPOB leadership because any politician that gives them money and hope will totally crumble the hopes of Buhari in the east because the propaganda might change that the problem is not Fulani but Buhari.

Southwest can never give Buhari 80%, he will only win like 60% because of the Muslims and RCCG members in the region.

I think the greatest test to Buhari reelection is in 2019. He might find it difficult if they field someone other than Atiku.

At the emboldened is a no go Area

Power must shift to the south

That's just the gospel truth

I don't see the southwest voting for another northerner to spend 8years

sarrki:


The way it stands today

Its purely APC versus PDP

Do you think Southwest will vote A northern president and A south south or South east vice president ?

Please I need an answer?

Middle belt is comprising of 6 states Benue,plateau,Nassarawa, Kogi,Kwara and Niger .

So you believe Niger , Kwara and kogi will vote against pmb ?

He will surely win Niger, Nassarawa , Kwara and kogi and poll at least 25 and 40 percent in Benue and plateau respectively, add that to the block votes of NW, NE, & SW remaining only SS and SE for PDP APGA and other Mushroom parties to share

The south west stand to lose everything if they vote for PDP in the next elections as the political permutations in that party tend to favor a vice presidential candidate from the south east. My guess is in the run up to the 2019 elections, the south west block in APC led by Bola Tinubu will demand some certain assurances from Buhari in order to give their support for his reelection bid. If that support is secured, I think it is possible to get more favorable result than was obtained in the last one

Sirjamo:
He will surely win Niger, Nassarawa , Kwara and kogi and poll at least 25 and 40 percent in Benue and plateau respectively, add that to the block votes of NW, NE, & SW remaining only SS and SE for PDP APGA and other Mushroom parties to share

Most of them thought its an online analysis

The truth is Pmb will win if he decides to contest

GoroTango:
The south west stand to lose everything if they vote for PDP in the next elections as the political permutations in that party tend to favor a vice presidential candidate from the south east. My guess is in the run up to the 2019 elections, the south west block in APC led by Bola Tinubu will demand some certain assurances from Buhari in order to give their support for his reelection bid. If that support is secured, I think it is possible to get more favorable result than was obtained in the last one

Exactly

Good analysis

michlins:
I hate to admit it but Buhari is going to win the coming election based on ethnicity. All permutations goes that way. Pdp didn't give us a choice. Taking the ticket to North means that the North is about getting twelve years which no one will accept.

I just pray that the next round of suffering will spark something in us that will result in revolution which will break the status quo.

There won't be much sufferings ones we diversify our economy, take those killer headers off our towns and villages and continue to deal with corruption and Boko Haram.

sarrki:




At the emboldened is a no go Area

Power must shift to the south

That's just the gospel truth

I don't see the southwest voting for another northerner to spend 8years

To the south, you mean the west, right?

sarrki:


Politics is a game of numbers, even if his wife & daughter come out openly against him his numbers in the North aint gonna move an inch, Buharism is like an established religion, forget the current mumble & grumble, I dare say that in 2019 he will have up to 15 million votes or more.

In order to be President of Nigeria you must have North-West & South-West block votes, he always had North-West overwhelmingly, merger with Tinubu gave him South-West and it was a done deal.

Reducing terror related deaths by 80%, simply means North-Easterners are not going to gamble their lives on anyone else...You can argue this with your keyboards.

South-West?...are the Yorubas who suffered the heck of marginalisation under PDP/GEJ going to "throw away" the current "milk & honey" Osinbajo, Kemi Adeosun, Fayemi, Babatunde Fowler & Super Minister Babatunde Fashola just like that? They will think about it profoundly...but I don't see that happening at all.

Middle-Belt, SS & SE? Take care of Herdsmen Vs Farmers crises in a very EFFECTIVE & DECISIVE way and you will score even better than 2015.

Emerging 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and X force? They may shake the dust off the curtains but that's it, Nigerian democracy is not yet as advanced as the French, German, Netherlands etc. for a 3rd force to make any significant impact 2019 is too close to call for such...It is simply (and sadly) going to be a PDP Vs APC affair.

You are running wild imaginations.
Buharis reelection has gone in flames. He will be a bad market for APC as far as Southern votes are concerned.
Yes Politics is a game of numbers, but also note that Two games can never be the same. The pattern of game you played snd won yesterday might not make you win today.
Even if South west still maintains APC, I am definitely sure they will vote APC governors and won't vote APC President if it is Buhari.
Besides, what makes you think Tinubu will consent to his reelection? Tinubu is a very shrewd politician and business man. He stakes when he is sure he will win. And presently, he isn't sure he will win with a Buhari reelection, and so it is with some core APC stalwarts. Wait till middle of the year when the dirty battle starts.

sarrki:
If you want to argue

Religion, Ethnicity and Tribalism are key factors in African politics most especially Nigeria

There is know way Southwest Majority will sell away the vice president to install another party in the name of whatsoever.

Southwest are well settled politically & infrastructurally
Most of the political appointee's are from southwest

Yemi Osinbajo the VP is from southwest.

Also interms of infrastructure Ilorin - Ibadan, Lagos - Ibadan, seceding Lagos to southwest by pmb are all campaign tools

Less I forget Lagos -Abeokuta -Ibadan rail line is inclusive

So with the factors stated above I need a very constructive argument and reason why Southwest will jolt this to vote another party.

Northwest is president Muhammadu Buhari core base

He has never lost election in the northwest

Facts don't lie

People are hungry,angry,broke and frustrated and you're here talking about political appointments??Go to the streets man and see people regretting their decision to vote APC in the last elections(APC fans included).
2019 isn't going to follow usual trend of voting along religious and ethnic lines.(atleast not as much as it usually does).
You know how many months the APC is owing workers in my state?

tuniski:

You tried in a skewed analysis. The middle belt and South west regions are the Swing regions.
SW is 50:50 by the way who sw VP abi appointees epp?
The middle belt is reverting back to PDP. Let see how NW and NE wins presidency alone. Mind you those two regions always voted buhari all the time he lost thrice!
Watchout the middle belt is the real decider!

Had to scroll multiple pages to find this.

Middle Belt is the kingmaker.

GEJ recognized it. I did.

There's a reason why they've had more power than any region, and why since 1999, they've always been on the winning side.

I think OBJ's letter changes everything. And it's too early to say how 2019 would go. At the moment tho', Buhari still has the upper hand.

-Lord

LordAdam16:


Had to scroll multiple pages to find this.

Middle Belt is the kingmaker.

GEJ recognized it. I did.

There's a reason why they've had more power than any region, and why since 1999, they've always been on the winning side.

I think OBJ's letter changes everything. And it's too early to say how 2019 would go. At the moment tho', Buhari still has the upper hand.

-Lord

With Obj's letter, buhari is a confirmed goner!

GoroTango:
The south west stand to lose everything if they vote for PDP in the next elections as the political permutations in that party tend to favor a vice presidential candidate from the south east. My guess is in the run up to the 2019 elections, the south west block in APC led by Bola Tinubu will demand some certain assurances from Buhari in order to give their support for his reelection bid. If that support is secured, I think it is possible to get more favorable result than was obtained in the last one

And what makes you think he'd keep those assurances? You guys never learn.

The problem is that Tinubu needs Buhari more than Buhari needs him. Tinubu staked a lot on Buhari in 2015, he loses all that progress if he jumps ship. The worst part is, there's no other ship for him to jump to. Unless he wants to go back to the obscurity he was in between 1999 and 2011.

Tinubu like Awo is not sellable outside the SW. That is his undoing. Tinubu, like Awo, wants to lead Nigeria, that's his gameplan. It'd NEVER happen. In fact, that is the one thing everyone from Sokoto to Jos to Enugu to Port Harcourt agrees on.

He should learn from OBJ. You don't pander to the North, you treat them as equals, beat them at their own game, else they'd never respect you.

Moreover, the SW never loses in any election. Only some of their gladiators do. SW votes will always be divided 50:50, so you guys are always on the winning side. If Tinubu sides with Buhari and Buhari loses, only Tinubu's SW bloc would lose, the Afenifere and allied bloc would win. In 2015, the Tinubu bloc won, the Afenifere lost. It all depends on which political bloc you belong to.

-Lord

tuniski:

With Obj's letter, buhari is a confirmed goner!

What if Buhari finally destroys the Ota Shrine?

If there's anyone alive in Nigeria who can do it, it is Buhari.

-Lord

FortifiedCity:
The north has a very scanty environment. Their eligible voters are not much in number.

The get more numbers during census and votes by registering cattles, underaged children and foreigners

HMMMMMMMMM

ARE YOU FOR REAL ? ANY WAY KEEP FOOLING YOURSELF.

tuniski:

With Obj's letter, buhari is a confirmed goner!

HMMMMMMMMMM

FUNNY.IS THAT LETTER FROM GOD ALMIGHTY.
ONLY ALMIGHTY GOD DETERMINES TOMORROW.

NASTYNASOSO:


HMMMMMMMMMM

FUNNY.IS THAT LETTER FROM GOD ALMIGHTY.
ONLY ALMIGHTY GOD DETERMINES TOMORROW.

I am clean enough to relay messages from the Almighty God and I promise you this is Buharis last tenure ..God has agreed so so shall it be

SalamRushdie:


I am clean enough to relay messages from the Almighty God and I promise you this is Buharis last tenure ..Gad has agrees so so shall it be

HMMMMMMMMMM.

BLASPHEMY AT ITS PEAK.
ARE YOU MAKING CLAIMS OF CONVERSATIONS WITH THE ALMIGHTY ON THIS BUHARI ISSUE?
WHO ARE YOU AND WHAT IS SO SPECIAL ABOUT YOU.
EVEN OBASANJO HIMSELF DID NOT MAKE SUCH STUPID CLAIMS.

SalamRushdie:


I am clean enough to relay messages from the Almighty God and I promise you this is Buharis last tenure ..Gad has agrees so so shall it be

God is not a man !!!

We have seen different prophesies before 2015 election

So baba will win squarely

tuniski:

With Obj's letter, buhari is a confirmed goner!

Same obasanjo that your likes says he's a paper weight ?

sarrki:


God is not a man !!!

We have seen different prophesies before 2015 election

So baba will win squarely

Bro you have put up a good fight for PMB just like a Doctor trying his best to save a patient's life even though the monitor is showing a flatline...Baba this is Buharis last tenure becuase Nigerians are fully fed up with him .

SalamRushdie:


Bro you have put up a good fight for PMB just like a Doctor trying his best to save a patient's life even though the monitor is showing a flatline...Baba this is Buharis last tenure becuase Nigerians are fully fed up with him .

Baba its just 13 months away

If by performance he won't get my vote

But I will prefer him to any northern candidate for now

sarrki:


Same obasanjo that your likes says he's a paper weight ?

OBJ is africa's 1st son!

Adekdammy:



Southwest has done it before, ysradua and gej.

Niger will go for apc because PDP failed woefully in that state, but things can change because of the light issue and their young governor is not trying either. Sie I know niger wella.

For kwara and kogi, saraki body is in apc but his soul is in PDP so it's a 50/50 plus Abdulfatah is another disaster in thst state.

Kogi is for PDP, bello everyday makes the job easy for PDP to win.

And what if a strong alliance of new breed without greed emerges, PDP = APC, We have tasted both and it's obvious APC is worse.

Bro Ay this stage & Time constraint

I don't see any good candidate from the north

The zoning of the presidency by the Two major political party leaves know one with choice than to look for the fairest among

Also note that pmb will win the north hands down

sarrki:


Mechonu

He's right

Am a patriot

Sounds more like BMC parrot

Lol. The APC can never win in the south west in 2019. Forget any permutations. APC will lose osun guber this year and Oyo now hates APC more than anything. Ekiti is gone and Ondo doesn't vote gubernatorial line. The only hope of APC in the south west I'd Lagos and ogun and they won't win by wide margin.

I give 40% to APC in the south west.

sarrki:


Bro Ay this stage & Time constraint

I don't see any good candidate from the north

The zoning of the presidency by the Two major political party leaves know one with choice than to look for the fairest among

Also note that pmb will win the north hands down

He has always won the core north. But he won't have a good showing in the rest of Nigeria.

sarrki:
If you want to argue

Religion, Ethnicity and Tribalism are key factors in African politics most especially Nigeria

There is know way Southwest Majority will sell away the vice president to install another party in the name of whatsoever.

Southwest are well settled politically & infrastructurally
Most of the political appointee's are from southwest

Yemi Osinbajo the VP is from southwest.

Also interms of infrastructure Ilorin - Ibadan, Lagos - Ibadan, seceding Lagos to southwest by pmb are all campaign tools

Less I forget Lagos -Abeokuta -Ibadan rail line is inclusive

So with the factors stated above I need a very constructive argument and reason why Southwest will jolt this to vote another party.

Northwest is president Muhammadu Buhari core base

He has never lost election in the northwest

Facts don't lie

Permit me to say that most of the westerners are coming out from their tribal hole to face the truth,having fayemi,VP n the rest of them without having food on the table doesn't make any sense.the present govt failed all classes of individual in the country.

sarrki:


Bro Ay this stage & Time constraint

I don't see any good candidate from the north

The zoning of the presidency by the Two major political party leaves know one with choice than to look for the fairest among

Also note that pmb will win the north hands down

Must the candidate comes from the north?
Who says better candidate can't come from the south?
This issue of zoning has done more harm than good to the country, the only time it worked and the impact was felt was during yaradua but unfortunately he died.

Adekdammy:


Must the candidate comes from the north?
Who says better candidate can't come from the south?
This issue of zoning has done more harm than good to the country, the only time it worked and the impact was felt was during yaradua but unfortunately he died.

Exactly my bro

The rotational presidency is not good for us

We have good hands across the region

The Two major parties have failed in this regard

sarrki:


Politics is a game of numbers, even if his wife & daughter come out openly against him his numbers in the North aint gonna move an inch, Buharism is like an established religion, forget the current mumble & grumble, I dare say that in 2019 he will have up to 15 million votes or more.

In order to be President of Nigeria you must have North-West & South-West block votes, he always had North-West overwhelmingly, merger with Tinubu gave him South-West and it was a done deal.

Reducing terror related deaths by 80%, simply means North-Easterners are not going to gamble their lives on anyone else...You can argue this with your keyboards.

South-West?...are the Yorubas who suffered the heck of marginalisation under PDP/GEJ going to "throw away" the current "milk & honey" Osinbajo, Kemi Adeosun, Fayemi, Babatunde Fowler & Super Minister Babatunde Fashola just like that? They will think about it profoundly...but I don't see that happening at all.

Middle-Belt, SS & SE? Take care of Herdsmen Vs Farmers crises in a very EFFECTIVE & DECISIVE way and you will score even better than 2015.

Emerging 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and X force? They may shake the dust off the curtains but that's it, Nigerian democracy is not yet as advanced as the French, German, Netherlands etc. for a 3rd force to make any significant impact 2019 is too close to call for such...It is simply (and sadly) going to be a PDP Vs APC affair.

You mean 2 against 4? You are dumb.

Sorry, SW cannot give a bloc vote, thanks to large presence of Non-Indigenes.

SouthEastFacts:

You mean 2 against 4? You are dumb.

Sorry, SW cannot give a bloc vote, thanks to large presence of Non-Indigenes.

And the North Central would give block votes to Atiku? Who be this one...

hinohsend:


And the North Central would give block votes to Atiku? Who be this one...

They will not only vote Buhari, but also donate the entire NC for cattle colony.

You must be arrogant to think Buhari will win MB again. When PDP starts campaigning and throwing out the atrocities of APC and trending all the pictures of every single person killed by Herdsmen in NC, Kaduna. Shia moslems killed in Zaria and Igbos killed in the East. Then your eyes will open.

Enjoy it now while it lasts, campaign will open soon and we shall remind you people that we have not forgotten #NimboMassacre (God bless their souls), Rann IDP camp bombing and the atrocities committed in the NC and NE by the herdsmen.