Who can beat Buhari in the North is the most critical question? Buhari will have more votes in the South than his opponent will have in the North.

If PDP can get a man strong enough to split his northern votes, they will have a chance. For now I'm not seeing anybody.

DeOTR:

I've been to at least 10 INEC offices in 4 different state in the last one month. Most people have other means of identifications- NationaNational ID Card comes to mind. Voters registration is apparently much more difficult for people than NIMC. I was in Suleja INEC office today and people have to be there as early as 4am to make the list.
In essence, no one would go through that stress when there are alternatives.
Buhari has lost people's confidence and many people will vote purposely to against the President, not because they are interested in who wins.
Except Buhari has rigging in mind, he's not coming back.

Well,buhari has rigging on his mind.plus he has more electoral factors working in his favour like governors support,nationwide structure and reach,cult followership,die hard chieftains,huge financial warchest,security agencies,election experience,inec support,penetration.no other candidate can breach that before 2019.

luvmijeje:
Who can beat Buhari in the North is the most critical question? Buhari will have more votes in the South than his opponent will have in the North.

If PDP can get a man strong enough to split his northern votes, they will have a chance. For now I'm not seeing anybody.

Thank you,this is what i have been saying.atiku comes close in pdp but cant make.

WATCHOVER:
Thanks op PDP are carefully planning

I know but one advantage apc has over pdp is that they have superior political planners,strategies,rigging formulae.the pdp knows which is why they had to hastily arrange a phantom alliance with some irrelevant parties.

senatordave1:

Thank you,this is what i have been saying.atiku comes close in pdp but cant make.

Even when Buhari wasn't close to be a President, he was bringing in 11 million votes from the North. Can Atiku brings in 5 million votes based on his personality alone. He has not put it to the test yet.

senatordave1:

I know but one advantage apc has over pdp is that they have superior political planners,strategies,rigging formulae.the pdp knows which is why they had to hastily arrange a phantom alliance with some irrelevant parties.

You are correct

One thing I know very well is that Pmb will loose all southern states massively cause of unfulfilled promises and the way he handled Fulani herdsmen crisis.

Even in the north he cannot command mumu blind followersheeps all their livelihood has been destroyed case of zamfara
I am not sure of middle belt because those ones are malls serf

luvmijeje:


Even when Buhari wasn't close to be a President, he was bringing in 11 million votes from the North. Can Atiku brings in 5 million votes based on his personality alone. He has not put it to the test yet.

And the eleven million could not help 2003 2007 and 2011 so they may not help him come 2019

benzion72:



And the eleven million could not help 2003 2007 and 2011 so they may not help him come 2019

Oga,between 2003 to 2011 he concentrated in the north and neglected the south.he had little or no funds and allies down south.when he reached to the south in 2015,it changed.from my write up,he has consolidated that southern grip.what wins elections is mostly your structure not your popularity.

benzion72:
One thing I know very well is that Pmb will loose all southern states massively cause of unfulfilled promises and the way he handled Fulani herdsmen crisis.

Even in the north he cannot command mumu blind followersheeps all their livelihood has been destroyed case of zamfara
I am not sure of middle belt because those ones are malls serf

So you think the votes he got in the north and gej's votes are purely human votes? Are you familiar with inflation,mass thumbrinting,vote deflation etc ?

You are wrong north central is no go area for bubu shiia members are waiting for bubu buhari will get less votes in plateu&zamfara becuase most of the people that voted for him have died in the hand of his kinsmen dont forget kano vote wil be influnenced by kwankwaso southern kaduna votes will influnence kaduna state votes bornu saw buhari as messiah in 2O15 dat was why he got all there votes they have seen...that he is not what he claimed to..be(general leading the war against boko boy) if election is free and fair i dont see buhari winning 2O19 election

A new party with younger and experienced youth will be a wonderful option. I'd rather vote for fresh minds. APC and PDP are birds of the same feather. Their members keep decamping to and fro such that one isn't ever sure of which party Mr X or Mrs Y belongs to.

benzion72:



And the eleven million could not help 2003 2007 and 2011 so they may not help him come 2019

Without the south-west votes. Tinubu personality alone brings in close to 3 million votes. Tinubu political machinery is unbeatable in the South-west. He is the King for now o.

It doesn't mean PDP can't win. They just need someone who can split not beat o Buhari votes in the North. Just split significantly.

Another good news for PDP, the difference in last year Presidential election for Lagos was close to 100,000 votes. Meaning they had more than a million votes. They may not be able to beat Buhari in southwest but they can it split significantly.

senatordave1:
On the runup to the 2019 polls,pdp are engrossed in looking for a candidate or tactics that may divide buhari's northern votes.this has made them to neglect their southern strongholds and flanks allowing apc to penetrate them deeply.none of those vying for the party's ticket can even win their states.the only northerners that have a chance of shocking buhari is the sultan and the emir of kano.yaradua the only northerner that defeated buhari had more electoral advantages than buhari.no other candidate has that now.the mass following buhari had wasnt cultivated in a day but years.atiku,tambuwal,saraki,dankwambo ars only popular among the elites.
Apc is currently stronger in the south than pdp in the north.apc controls 8 sourhern states while pdp controls 2 northern states barring the defections of sokoto,kwara and benue governors.apc have a foothold in all the southeast and south south states.even bayelsa and enugu where there are weak,they are still strong as compared to pdp in buchi,borno or yobe.buhari will likely get a significant proportion of southern votes.
Rivers:pdp will win rivers as usual but not with their usual margin.i see apc getting up to 300,000 votes in rivers mainly from rivers south east district controlled by senator abe.the combo of amaechi/abe/amachree may floor wike.many of those that rig for pdp in rivers have been detained or now in apc.
Cross river:the govetnor is pdp but pro buhari and will not campaign against buhari but focus on his reelection.the senator representing central cross river is now in apc and very popular.he will deliver that zone to apc.i see buhari getting up to 100k votes.most of tge bigwigs in the state are in apc.
Delta:the presence of ogboru in apc plus senator agege will give buhari a lot of urhobo votes.emami will deliver warri votes with apc making sure anioma,ijaw and isoko votes are not inflated.i see apc getting close to 300k votes here with pdp not getting more than a million.
Edo: with adams as chairman,i see apc winning here outrightly or narrowly.apc votes in edo north will be inflated,pdp will win the central dominated by the ishans with apc narrowly winning the south.i see apc getting 300k with pdp 200k.
Akwa ibom:many bigwigs here that usually delivered for pdp are now in apc.the alliance of nsim aekere/umanah will give pdp a headache.udom is friendly with buhari and will not campaign much against him.the oron people of akwa ibom south are pro apc plus a lot of ibibios.i see buhari polling over 200,000 with pdp polling 800,000.
Bayelsa:this is where apc are most weakest in bayelsa but may pull a shocker with seriake's lukewarm attitude.i see timipre inflating his brass lga figure tk give apc at least 20k votes with pdp not getting above 200,000.

Imo: apc will win or lose imo narrowly.rochas is a fighter and plus his senatorial bid,he will match pdp toe to toe.whoever wins will not do so with more than 100,000 votes with apc guaranteed of getting 25%.
Anambra:obiano is comfortable to apc and averse to pdp.apga may field a candidate to reduce pdp votes.i see buhari polling over 100k with pdp struggling to get 300,000
Abia:alex otti will ally with apc and give buhari close to 100,000 votes with pdp not getting more than 300k.
Ebonyi:umahi is pro buhari and will subtle campaign for him.i see apc getting more than 50k votes here with pdp still winning.
In summary,apc may get up to 1.5 million votes in ss and over 500,000 in south east.buhari will win the west narrowly.i see him getting up to 22 millon with pdp getting close to 14 million.up apc

With the monumental failure of buhari/apc you expect 7m more people to become Zombified chai!

Buhari won't get 15m in 2019!

So 1m+ add to 15m minus 5m in the north is 22m abi?

tuniski:

With the monumental failure of buhari/apc you expect 7m more people to become Zombified chai!

Buhari won't get 15m in 2019!

So 1m+ add to 15m minus 5m in the north is 22m abi?

You have come again,you never learn after apc humbled you in ekiti.i will have preferred if you opposed buhari from another party other than pdp or you were in a neutral position.i wonder why people still support apc

hmmm

senatordave1:

You have come again,you never learn after apc humbled you in ekiti.i will have preferred if you opposed buhari from another party other than pdp or you were in a neutral position.i wonder why people still support apc

Stolen mandate!

jessca048:
the person making this up, are you not tired of the state of this country so all that matters to you is buhari winning the election either by hook or crook.this government have failed in every aspect and no sane human being should be thinking of endorsing them for second term

Maybe you should convince us the more and tell us who to vote.

Lipscomb:
you try with this analysis but you overrated PDP in some States .especially in river state and bayelsa even in Delta state. If you go those states you will know APC get ground everyday for example 3of bayelsa governor abdicated from their position and they moved to APC . river state is one of the state that APC will take from PDP in 2019 the presence of rotimi ameach ,and the two senators they have upper hand .buhari will have his way in cross-river and embonyi I doubt ABia state because of KANU .

You know the game well. I doff my hat.

His analysis is quite on point except that APC will likely win in Benue,Bayelsa,Rivers and likely have some governors in Anambra,Ebonyi,Cross River and Akwa Ibom working aggressively for Buhari’s reelection bid.


Yes,he exaggerated the strength of PDP in some states.

senatordave1:

Oga,between 2003 to 2011 he concentrated in the north and neglected the south.he had little or no funds and allies down south.when he reached to the south in 2015,it changed.from my write up,he has consolidated that southern grip.what wins elections is mostly your structure not your popularity.

Do a test go to any south west states and shout sai buhari and see the response. Tinubu structure may not help much. People are tired of the killings. Salary are owed security of life and property is zero. Tinubu lost Lagos in 2011 despite his structure

tuniski:

Stolen mandate!

Is there any elected leader who doesnt rig? How were you expecting fayose to win while owing 7 months?

benzion72:



Do a test go to any south west states and shout sai buhari and see the response. Tinubu structure may not help much. People are tired of the killings. Salary are owed security of life and property is zero. Tinubu lost Lagos in 2011 despite his structure

Your right but that doesnt translate votes to pdp actually.pdp would have benefitted if only they had strong structures there.in 2011,tinubu was interested only in retaining the south west and not presidency.we all knew that ribadu wasnt going anywhere.finally,there are rumours of a secret alliance he had with gej.in 2015 he showed interest,you could see the results

OsasAca1:


I don't like to comment on anything that involve Buhari and APC because people like you are celebrating when we supposed to be worried...
Nigeria needs a radical and vibrant leader who would be more considerate about all that affect the well-being of his Citizens... You can't possibly be in your right mindframe and be thinking of a victory for Man whose Governance has been criticized by majority of the people...
Goodluck Jonathan was by far one of the worse nightmare for Nigeria and we voted him out, by the special Grace of God, Nigeria would vote this Man out...
Your calculations might be logical to you but remember only God knows tomorrow.

Stop getting unnecessarily emotional ok, God will not put PDP back in power in this country.
Read job 20:4-29 to get a better understanding of what is happening at the moment and what will happen from 2019 upwards.
PDP is a goner.

CALCULATORS EVERYWHERE!

senatordave1:
On the runup to the 2019 polls,pdp are engrossed in looking for a candidate or tactics that may divide buhari's northern votes.this has made them to neglect their southern strongholds and flanks allowing apc to penetrate them deeply.none of those vying for the party's ticket can even win their states.the only northerners that have a chance of shocking buhari is the sultan and the emir of kano.yaradua the only northerner that defeated buhari had more electoral advantages than buhari.no other candidate has that now.the mass following buhari had wasnt cultivated in a day but years.atiku,tambuwal,saraki,dankwambo ars only popular among the elites.
Apc is currently stronger in the south than pdp in the north.apc controls 8 sourhern states while pdp controls 2 northern states barring the defections of sokoto,kwara and benue governors.apc have a foothold in all the southeast and south south states.even bayelsa and enugu where there are weak,they are still strong as compared to pdp in buchi,borno or yobe.buhari will likely get a significant proportion of southern votes.
Rivers:pdp will win rivers as usual but not with their usual margin.i see apc getting up to 300,000 votes in rivers mainly from rivers south east district controlled by senator abe.the combo of amaechi/abe/amachree may floor wike.many of those that rig for pdp in rivers have been detained or now in apc.
Cross river:the govetnor is pdp but pro buhari and will not campaign against buhari but focus on his reelection.the senator representing central cross river is now in apc and very popular.he will deliver that zone to apc.i see buhari getting up to 100k votes.most of tge bigwigs in the state are in apc.
Delta:the presence of ogboru in apc plus senator agege will give buhari a lot of urhobo votes.emami will deliver warri votes with apc making sure anioma,ijaw and isoko votes are not inflated.i see apc getting close to 300k votes here with pdp not getting more than a million.
Edo: with adams as chairman,i see apc winning here outrightly or narrowly.apc votes in edo north will be inflated,pdp will win the central dominated by the ishans with apc narrowly winning the south.i see apc getting 300k with pdp 200k.
Akwa ibom:many bigwigs here that usually delivered for pdp are now in apc.the alliance of nsim aekere/umanah will give pdp a headache.udom is friendly with buhari and will not campaign much against him.the oron people of akwa ibom south are pro apc plus a lot of ibibios.i see buhari polling over 200,000 with pdp polling 800,000.
Bayelsa:this is where apc are most weakest in bayelsa but may pull a shocker with seriake's lukewarm attitude.i see timipre inflating his brass lga figure tk give apc at least 20k votes with pdp not getting above 200,000.

Imo: apc will win or lose imo narrowly.rochas is a fighter and plus his senatorial bid,he will match pdp toe to toe.whoever wins will not do so with more than 100,000 votes with apc guaranteed of getting 25%.
Anambra:obiano is comfortable to apc and averse to pdp.apga may field a candidate to reduce pdp votes.i see buhari polling over 100k with pdp struggling to get 300,000
Abia:alex otti will ally with apc and give buhari close to 100,000 votes with pdp not getting more than 300k.
Ebonyi:umahi is pro buhari and will subtle campaign for him.i see apc getting more than 50k votes here with pdp still winning.
In summary,apc may get up to 1.5 million votes in ss and over 500,000 in south east.buhari will win the west narrowly.i see him getting up to 22 millon with pdp getting close to 14 million.up apc

This is called delusions of grandeur.You just sit at home and start allocating votes anyhow.Buhari willget votes in SE and MB after mudering people with operation pytrhan dance and his killer fulani herdsmen.Imagine you saying Buhari will lose narrowly in Benue.You need a psychiatric evaluation

7lives:


Stop getting unnecessarily emotional ok, God will not put PDP back in power in this country.
Read job 20:4-29 to get a better understanding of what is happening at the moment and what will happen from 2019 upwards.
PDP is a goner.

Hello,i don't think PDP or APC should be our bases of argument here, the personality matters, Goodluck Jonathan against all odd was defeated by the same Grace and Mercy of God, Buhari would be defeated come 2019... May we not see a Nigeria go down the drain...
God bless Nigeria....

senatordave1:

Well,buhari has rigging on his mind.plus he has more electoral factors working in his favour like governors support,nationwide structure and reach,cult followership,die hard chieftains,huge financial warchest,security agencies,election experience,inec support,penetration.no other candidate can breach that before 2019.

Jonathan had all these in 2015 and still lost.
Buhari has been demystified.
Apart from large scale rigging with the use of INEC and security agencies (this will be pretty hard in some place), he has no other advantage.
Any random politician can beat him next year. It's not as if people voted Buhari because he was good, he took advantage of Jonathan loss of goodwill.

senatordave1:

Is there any elected leader who doesnt rig? How were you expecting fayose to win while owing 7 months?

Lame!
How did Aregbesola Win?

DeOTR:

Jonathan had all these in 2015 and still lost.
Buhari has been demystified.
Apart from large scale rigging with the use of INEC and security agencies (this will be pretty hard in some place), he has no other advantage.
Any random politician can beat him next year. It's as if people voted Buhari because he was good, he took advantage of Jonathan loss of goodwill.

Your Head is very correct.

DeOTR:

Jonathan had all these in 2015 and still lost.
Buhari has been demystified.
Apart from large scale rigging with the use of INEC and security agencies (this will be pretty hard in some place), he has no other advantage.
Any random politician can beat him next year. It's as if people voted Buhari because he was good, he took advantage of Jonathan loss of goodwill.

Buhari is a brand,a one man mopol.even his greatest critics like ffk and yakassai recognized that.gej was a weakling,indecisive,unruthless,too forgiving and hesitant.buhari is clearly the opposite just like obj.goodluck had no real loyalists except his wife.most of his loyallists like edwin clark were only after the money.buhari has die hard loyallists who love him unconditionally like me.that is how you underestimated fayemi.whether you like it or not,apc have superior political strategists than pdp.
Dont forget that a lot of npower volunteers will vote plus apc may resort to vote buying

tuniski:


Your Head is very correct.

Lame.up buhari

tuniski:


Lame!
How did Aregbesola Win?

Aregbesola wasnt owing as much as he is now as of 2014.again,aregbesola had a lot of infrastructural projects on ground and more are still coming up.after lagos,osun is 2nd on infrastructure.this made up for that salary deficit.moving to ekiti,what infrastructure has fayose put on ground apart from the over inflated fly over commissioned this year?