By Temidayo Akinsuyi 

Lagos – Ahead of the presidential primary election of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) scheduled for May 30, the ambition of some political gladiators in the South-West may threaten the chances of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, former Lagos State governor and national leader of the party, who is a leading presidential aspirant in the 2023 general elections, Daily Independent exclusively gathered.

Following resistance by major stakeholders and presidential aspirants to the consensus mode of election which was adopted at its national convention in March, the APC has chosen indirect primaries as the mode of choosing its presidential candidate for the 2023 election. Reacting to the report, loyalists of Tinubu had said they were excited with the development as their principal will win the primary, given the massive support he enjoys among members and leaders of the party, who will be delegates at the convention.

However, checks by Daily Independent revealed that while he still enjoys large followership in the South-West region, Tinubu’s foothold in some South-West states have waned following opposition to his leadership by some of his erstwhile protégés.

Already, with the entrance of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo into the race, the delegates are already divided as some of Tinubu’s key loyalists in the party have already queued behind the vice president, sensing that he may likely be the president’s anointed candidate.

Former governor of Ogun State, Ibikunle Amosun, is expected to announce his presidential ambition on May 5 in Abuja while Ekiti State governor, Kayode Fayemi, is still embarking on nationwide consultation.

Giving a detailed analysis of how things may play out, a former senator and ex-minister from the South-West who is also a chieftain of the APC said while Tinubu’s chances are high, he may have some hurdles to cross at the home front.

“From the way things are at the moment, all the aspirants will share the delegates.


"We have six states in the South-West. The only two states that Asiwaju has is Lagos and Osun states. Even in Osun, he can’t boast of getting all the delegates votes because Governor Oyetola, his cousin, is not completely in charge of the party structure".

"Also, there are some loyalists of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola who are in the party and in the governor’s cabinet but are pretending to be loyal to Oyetola in order to continue getting political patronage.

“Automatically, Ogun State belong to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. Governor Dapo Abiodun is firmly on his side and don’t forget that he (Osinbajo) has moved his political base away from Lagos to Ikenne in Ogun State".

"Abiodun will do everything in his power to deliver the state to the vice president who also played a huge role in his emergence as governor in 2019".

“Also, the fact that former Governor Ibikunle Amosun is contesting is another factor why Tinubu can’t get delegates votes in Ogun.

"Amosun will likely get delegates votes in Oyo, Ogun and Ondo states. Given his close relationship with President Buhari, even if Amosun steps down, he may not ask his supporters to vote for Tinubu at the primaries".

 He will rather ask them to give it to Osinbajo or whoever the president endorses. “All the aspirants will struggle for delegates’ votes in Oyo and Ondo.

Governor Akeredolu and Fayemi are also like siamese twins given the manner they have always supported each other. If Fayemi is truly contesting, Akeredolu will ensure his loyalists vote for him at the convention.

“In Ekiti, of course Governor Fayemi is fully in charge. That was evident in the APC governorship primaries where his anointed, Biodun Oyebanji, won.

 Also, if Fayemi steps down, he will likely ask the Ekiti delegates to vote for Buhari’s choice. He is not on the same page with Tinubu at all on the issue of the presidential election”, he said.

 When contacted, the South- West Agenda for Asiwaju 2023 (SWAGA’23) said the likes of Osinbajo, Fayemi, Amosun and others do not constitute any threat to Tinubu’s presidential ambition, especially at the primary election.

Hon. Bosun Oladele, the National Secretary of the organisation, said Tinubu has better political networks than all of them across the country.

 “We don’t see them as a threat and we sincerely believe that whoever has the best network across the country will be the person that will eventually emerge as the presidential candidate.

“When you are talking of network, it is obvious to a blind man just as it sounds real even to the deaf that among all of them, Asiwaju has better network across the country.

“Nobody will ask all the other aspirants not to come out and contest. It is their constitutional and political rights.

The morality of it is a topic for discussion for another day”, he said. Also speaking, a serving senator from the South-West who is also advocating Tinubu’s emergence as president said the likes of Amosun and Fayemi are not really contesting but drafted into the race to act as spoilers for Tinubu.

“These people are just spoilers. It is a calculated ploy by them to divide the delegates’ votes in the South-West. Just imagine an Amosun saying he wants to become president under APC.

From where to where? Do you think APC will be stupid to give him the ticket except they have made up their minds to lose to PDP? Do they know him in the North? Can he defeat an Atiku, Peter Obi or even Wike in a presidential election? Their plans is to scatter the votes of the South-West which they know is Tinubu’s home base.

“It is highly unfortunate that these men are allowing themselves to be used to scuttle the chances of the South- West but they will be put to shame”, he said

https://independent.ng/how-osinbajo-fayemi-amosun-will-cut-tinubus-s-west-delegates-votes/

Without mincing words, it's official that the presidential race is delicately poised to a frenetic end; The tension is growing; Betrayal is tilting to an unprecedented rooftop level;

Southwest has been infiltrated! The last paragraph got me and it isn't far from the truth. Tinubu, the political juggernaut and strategist is insidiously loosing his firm grip on Southwest. This shouldn't pose much of a threat to his ambition even if he marginally wins the primary.

In recent past, Southwest champions the most trickery, controversial, and divided region even though Tinubu still has a grip. His political base is getting infiltrated by the day.

My two cent: As much as the political analyst are coming out to analyse, there is still more denial, betrayal, backstabbing, and forgiveness in the offing; Be careful of your predictions

To thy tent oh Israel!

There won’t be need for Voting as the leader of the party will pick a Kwansensus same way he did with the party Shiaman and Thiefnibu will fall in line again.

Dinubu doesn't know what is coming until he lands in jail

Is that why Tinubu sharply endorsed Sanwo-Olu for second term so as not to lose the only Lagos vote he has?

The SW states are for Osinbajo and Tinubu, ogun and oyo states in the bags for Osinbajo while lagos and osun are for Tinubu, the two states of ekiti and ondo are swings states,but ekiti more likely to go to osinbajo incase Fayemi decides not to run eventually, and ondo might follow suit.

The Game of Thrones has just started and winter is coming. Tinubu will find out that Nigeria is not Lagos where he is king of the South West (Lagos actually).

Tinubu is a history;an outdated politician trying to stay relevant among the contemporaries.He's not destined for that position.

Something tells me that the APC primaries will shock Tinubu.

MikoB:
The SW states are for Osinbajo and Tinubu, ogun and oyo states in the bags for osinbajo while lagos and osun are for Tinubu, the two states of ekiti and ondo are swings states,but ekiti more likely to go to osinbajo because of Fayemi and ondo might follow suite.

1. Tinubu gets Lagos and Osun.

2. Tinubu gets Ogun. Dapo Abiodun is not in charge of APC Ogun. It is more apparent from the fact that 60% of his cabinet are Yayi boys, he became governor from Yayi's structure. Only people in Ogun know this. Dapo and PYO are from the same place but how come you haven't seen Dapo actively supporting PYO? You want hin to upset YAYI so support for his second term can be withdrawn?
As for Amosun, he is not even in the party. I said it; he does not have a single Ogun delegate to vote for him

3. Oyo doesn't have a governor but the minister and the APC structure is still Ajimobi's and well…

4. Ekiti will be shared if Fayemi doesn't run and even at that, Ekiti delegates know their principal wont win and will most likely look out for themselves.

5. Ondo is anyhow

lol

Let them fight dirty and scatter their votes. What I know is that a Yoruba man will never be president in 2023. Their 30k amala and ewedu gang members can cry all they want

How can Ekiti go to Osinbajo?

MikoB:
The SW states are for Osinbajo and Tinubu, ogun and oyo states in the bags for osinbajo while lagos and osun are for Tinubu, the two states of ekiti and ondo are swings states,but ekiti more likely to go to osinbajo because of Fayemi and ondo might follow suite.

Damnnn niggar. ..

Na wetin we dey pray for be that

Judge; why do you want me to install Osinbajo as the next president knowing fully well that he can't win the north and some part of south west?

Masses; You need to see the grace wey im carry and we use God take beg you

Amosun also want to run after destroying houses and failed to console the owners with good roads.
I guess he running to remain fit medically but jogging would have been better or running to win medals (cash out) or running to grave.

North vote is the majority
.

All sizes and all types of men clothing Europe quality

Wicked and Weak Leaders

70 years old man.......dem never leave you

I see one or two of them stepping down for tinubu

All these permutations. Let’s just wait till June 3rd all will be settled.

Betrayal is real in every facet of live

slawormiir:
Damnnn niggar. ..

Na wetin we dey pray for be that

Only those who sit and digest media news reason all this. Come down to SW and u would discover this write up holds no much water.

I'm not ruling out the fact that PYO will take some but believe, won't be upto 10% of SW vote..

Even if Fayemi comes out, Tinubu will still win him in Ekiti, Tinubu will win Amosun in Ogun.

Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Osun are 90% Tinubu.

Take it or leave it.

They have scattered South West votes for Tinubu. If Buhari secures the North for his candidate, then Tinubu is a goner

anything to stop tinubu.

Your Wishful Thinking

SEGLIZ:
anything to stop tinubu.

1000 of your wretched father cannot stop Tinubu

Mynd44:

1. Tinubu gets Lagos and Osun.

2. Tinubu gets Ogun. Dapo Abiodun is not in charge of APC Ogun. It is more apparent from the fact that 60% of his cabinet are Yayi boys, he became governor from Yayi's structure. Only people in Ogun know this. Dapo and PYO are from the same place but how come you haven't seen Dapo actively supporting PYO? You want hin to upset YAYI so support for his second term can be withdrawn?
As for Amosun, he is not even in the party. I said it; he does not have a single Ogun delegate to vote for him

3. Oyo doesn't have a governor but the minister and the APC structure is still Ajimobi's and well…

4. Ekiti will be shared if Fayemi doesn't run and even at that, Ekiti delegates know their principal wont win and will most likely look out for themselves.

5. Ondo is anyhow

I'm not ruling out the fact that PYO will take some but, won't be upto 10% of SW vote..

Even if Fayemi comes out, Tinubu will still win him in Ekiti, Tinubu will still win Amosun in Ogun.

Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Osun are 95% Tinubu.
Ekiti and Ogun 60% Tinubu.


I don't even think Amosun and Fayemi will come out with that 100Million form. Not that they don't have the money but for the fact that they won't win will make them have a rethink.

Tinubu will win in Lagos, osun and Oyo, share ogun with osinbajo and loose out in ondo and ekiti.
At the end, bale of Dollars will exchange hands and tinubu will win d primary with missive votes from north, South East and south south states.