Abfinest007:
Winning the north alone is not enough . mathematically obi is our next president ok let assume
Atiku get 60 percent of d northern state except north Central
Kwankwaso get 15
Tinubu got 15
Obi got 10

South south
Obi get 65 percent
Atiku get 25 percent
Tinubu get 10 percent

North Central
Atiku get 45
Obi get 40
Tinubu get 10

South east
Obi get 85 percent
Atiku get 10 percent
Tinubu get 5 percent

South West
Tinubu get 65 percent
Obi get 25 percent
Atiku gets 10


So tell me who's gonna win if not obi

Reporting34:

Please everyone don't mind this fraudsters Anthony okeke is nw bck with a full force to continue scamming Nairaland people with the same format he has always been using, so just check the format oloriburuku man is still using to defraud a lots of people's here on Nairaland just be aware not to be scam

StrongAlphMale:
I thought urchin said drugnibu will inherit Buhari's vote in the North?

Una never see anything, While Atiku will sweep the entire North, Obi will sweep the entire SS, NE SW and NE

Abfinest007:
u must be joking go look for d number of registered voters again in ss,nw and ne

Alexa7676:
I will keep saying this. Nigerian vote along Tribe and religion. Not Party...

Abfinest007:
Winning the north alone is not enough . mathematically obi is our next president ok let assume
Atiku get 60 percent of d northern state except north Central
Kwankwaso get 15
Tinubu got 15
Obi got 10

South south
Obi get 65 percent
Atiku get 25 percent
Tinubu get 10 percent

North Central
Atiku get 45
Obi get 40
Tinubu get 10

South east
Obi get 85 percent
Atiku get 10 percent
Tinubu get 5 percent

South West
Tinubu get 65 percent
Obi get 25 percent
Atiku gets 10


So tell me who's gonna win if not obi

Bigleaf1006:


Its easier for APC and obi to get votes in the north than it is for atiku to get votes in the south,even Okowa isn't guaranteed his state and akwa ibom will be thrown open,forget Edo ,bayelsa and cross rivers ....mark this.

Atiku already lost this election the day obi and kwakwanso threw their hats in the ring.

As much as we all know obi is a very good and formidable candidate, let's be realistic, he doesn't have the structure and resources to win,except we want to keep deceiving our selves.even buhari with all his popularity in the north pre 2015 couldn't win and I see obi following the same pattern, he should build on this momentum and he will be in far better position in 2027.

Atiku isn't guaranteed the NE- taraba is out,borno and yobe is out the only guarantee is Adamawa,gombe will be very close and bauchi will spring huge surprise with APC getting closer than anyone will expect between atiku and apc......bala Mohammed can't be trusted.

NW with the larger voting bloc has already been balkanized in 3,with APC having the upper hand but atiku very close with states like jigawa and maybe sokoto, the other 5 states zamfara,kebbi,katsina,kaduna wont be easy for pdp and the emergence of kwakwanso is a huge disadvantage to atiku, kwakwanso is priming himself to be the next buhari in the north and he is ready to make a big statement and would really want to be the political leader in the north and to achieve this he will rather atiku retires and fancy his chances come 2027 or 31bcos he knows that this is atiku's last chance.

NC,Benue and plateau is out of it for atiku simply because he is Fulani,I bet you already know why.kogi and kwara have same voting pattern and you know APC has an edge,the only place atiku stands a chance is kogi east which has the largest voting bloc in that state but trust me, bello will be ready to fight to the death.

As for the souyh,there are far more people who believe and agree its the turn of the south than those who can vote for another northener and obi emergence is also a disaster for atiku.

Emir01:


Most of you are just very funny or naive, haven't you see Christians in APC and other parties and muslims. Religion will not have so much effect in the result. Ethnicity, elite interests and political structures will play a major role

babaolofin:


IBO, that has always been your expectation and permutation from time immemorial. You know OBI is not in the contest. Your fear is Tinubu.

Ezeama400:


NE/NW is a virgin land for exploration among the 4 contenders..

The Joke is on you.. ATIKU is a customer to INEC and will forever remain so

3verblazing:
and you think the north is not divided?

Abfinest007:
Winning the north alone is not enough . mathematically obi is our next president ok let assume
Atiku get 60 percent of d northern state except north Central
Kwankwaso get 15
Tinubu got 15
Obi got 10

South south
Obi get 65 percent
Atiku get 25 percent
Tinubu get 10 percent

North Central
Atiku get 45
Obi get 40
Tinubu get 10

South east
Obi get 85 percent
Atiku get 10 percent
Tinubu get 5 percent

South West
Tinubu get 65 percent
Obi get 25 percent
Atiku gets 10


So tell me who's gonna win if not obi

grandstar:
He can't get 25% in all states. The South South is largely for Obi. Obi might also have in the bag all Igbo states.

Atiku also has to contend with the damage the G5 governors will cause. Atiku should forget Rivers state.

Honestly speaking predicting the winner of next year's election is simply too hard. The dynamics are simply too much.

The 3 leading contenders all have their strengths and weaknesses. Obi's nemesis will be the core North will account for about 12 states. Then again, he's been assures of the votes of Christians in these states,and they do constitute a huge number, accounting for as much as 40% of the population in many of these states.

Funny thing is that with the analysis here, Obi might win, but it's still early days.

The real problem that comes with predicting the results may be because no one can clearly predict how core Northern Muslims will vote.

Atiku feels he has them in the bag as they ate his kinfolk. Others add that Northerners will only vote for themselves

Tinubu felt that a Muslim Muslim ticket will give him victory. With the assertions that core Northerners will only vote their kinfolk, that leaves Tinubu out to dry.
when obituary loose in 2023 and you start crying you will know that election is not won by emotional analysis by a useless follower called obituarist

Acidosis:


IBO? How's that supposed to even be an insult? Do you think everyone lives like that Iragbiji man and his Itsekiri wife who jointly denied their historical roots because of Lagos state IGR?

You don't have to "insult" me by calling me Ibo. Call me by my root. I'm a Kogi man from North Central Nigeria.

No amount of owo mida from Lagos will change that. I'm Acidosis, not Crooknubu.

989900:
Atiku has no path to victory.

Currently, none of the candidates has sure path to 25% in 24 states.

Obi looks set to win popular votes . . . asides other NC, SE, SS states in OBi's pouch, a win in Lagos (yes, Obi will win Lagos), massive win in Rivers and Akwa Ibom states would ensure that!

There are no KKK states in the bag for anyone like they did for Buhari over the years.

Underage voters and multiple registration ti lù lẹ.

No coalition centres a.k.a. rigging rings.

Obi ti gbe wọn rin!

Nchenches:


But Igbo is the largest or 2nd largest ethnic group in Nigeria. So if the election goes on ethnic lines, who will win, if not Peter Obi supported by too many people from the smaller ethnic groups who Islamic extremists are threatening the life out of them?

Ezeama400:


NE/NW is a virgin land for exploration among the 4 contenders..

The Joke is on you.. ATIKU is a customer to INEC and will forever remain so

alimiadedayo1:

pls send your parents number I want to tell them their son is running mad.. which planet are your from

Timatayo1:
Obidents make una come hear una babachir lawal. He said PDP go clear all northern state including kano na so e go be or no be so

Barbushe:
Who is Babachir in the north. We core-northerner we don't even consider him as our elder or leader. He can only talk about northern christian who he can decieve with religion sentiment.


Core-northerners better listeners but we act without notice. Babachir embrassed/disgraced our religion because of Tinubu. We are muslim and we never play with our religion. Babachir knew this very well, that's why he disown Obi for Atiku. We are ready to play any political card including religion card.



In the core-north, we respect elders. Kwankwa and Atiku is our kinsmen thus we respect them, but we respect Baba Buhari and El-rufai more than as we respect Kwankwaso or Atiku. The truth is that whatever Buhari say, we are ready to do so, and we had been told to VOTE TINUBU by Baba Buhari and El-rufai.



It's final!

989900:


Oponu, you get credit?

Ko ní r'agba fún àwọn tí wọn bí ẹ l'ọmọ!

Fill your tears in those drums.

alimiadedayo1:

pls send me your father's number before you totally run mad it is a matter of urgency

alimiadedayo1:

your analysis is partial true and partial false.. you have no cognitive meaniful analysis

babaolofin:


Is calling you by your identity an insult? I tutored and enlightened you based on your ignorance when you said Babachir has never said OBI will clear the Northern Votes. This is something reported on all the media and he endorsed Peter OBI.

alimiadedayo1:

pls send your parents number I want to tell them their son is running mad.. which planet are your from