Localemperor:
Honestly becoming a Vice president, does not really position one for the presidency. Power is taken, you need to be in the opposition to radiate.

Kwankwaso would have lost a lot of supporters and influence if he had agree to be VP to Obi.
I still believe he made the best choice.

Kwankwaso should have given Obi a weak deputy and then come back in 8 years to contest Presidency.
Problem is that Kwankwaso doesn't trust Obi. He knows Obi is a snake and so, he doesn't want it. He prefers to cut a deal with Tinubu than to support Obi.
Kwankwaso is diluting Atiku's votes in the North, Obi is diluting Atiku's votes in the South.
Both doing the lord's work.

After power return to South East, he can contest with his block votes from North. He knows the deal, he entered with obi

Wickedfacts:


Kwankwaso should have given Obi a weak deputy and then come back in 8 years to contest Presidency.
Problem is that Kwankwaso doesn't trust Obi. He knows Obi is a snake and so, he doesn't want it. He prefers to cut a deal with Tinubu than to support Obi.
Kwankwaso is diluting Atiku's votes in the North, Obi is diluting Atiku's votes in the South.
Both doing the lord's work.

Make you dey play. Na to give you cassava stick and motor tyre make you continue dey play since you no wan get sense.

Localemperor:
This analysis is purely my opinion and what I think he is trying to do.

Kwankwaso is not contesting to win the election next year,but he is trying to use the Buhari model in the north.

Did you know how many times Buhari contested before he was able to annex the 12m northern vote? Despite being former head of state, Buhari had to rally round North 3 times before he got it right.

Buhari becoming the most powerful contender in the north was because of his consistent hunger for power. Over years, he made the people rally round him.

In 2015, Tinubu saw that the fastest way to get the presidency was to cut shot the reign of Good-luck Jonathan, because if he had allow Jonathan to rule till 2019, then power moved north, it's would take South another 8 years (2027) before power returns and by then he ( Tinubu) would have been too old to contest, so he got his calculation well by saving 4year.

When Tinubu looked North to find an alliance, he went to no other person than Buhari who already is the biggest power house in Northern Nigeria, and the rest they say is history.

Now this is exactly what Kwankwaso is trying to do in a lesser time. Kwankwaso want the presidency to go South, any body that win between Tinubu and Peter Obi is a win for him. You will also agree with me that this is Tinubu and Atiku's last chance at the golden egg and when Atiku is out of the way in the North, who do you think his supporter in the North will rally round ( Mind you, Kwankwaso already have massive cult-like followers in Northwest).

When Atiku is gone and the South has ruled and when power returns to the North, who do you think would be the most likely to succeed?

Under the Nigerian standard, he can still vie for the presidency at least twice before he retires.

What I'm trying to say is this, since Atiku has lot his block vote in Southeast and still having issues with the G5. He has no base in the South because Tinubu owns the Southwest and majority of the SS states will be fest for all.

Kwankwaso is planning to disrupt and divide the Northwest vote and with this, were will Atiku get his votes from? Northeast can not win the election for him.

Kwankwaso is a visionary and futuristic politician

What do you think..

It is obvious to all that Kwankwanso will not win 2023 but the man is building a formidable political force in the North that will still be influential beyond 2023.
Kwankwasiya political movement is a force to reckon with in the North especially in Kano state.

Localemperor:
This analysis is purely my opinion and what I think he is trying to do.

Kwankwaso is not contesting to win the election next year,but he is trying to use the Buhari model in the north.

Did you know how many times Buhari contested before he was able to annex the 12m northern vote? Despite being former head of state, Buhari had to rally round North 3 times before he got it right.

Buhari becoming the most powerful contender in the north was because of his consistent hunger for power. Over years, he made the people rally round him.

In 2015, Tinubu saw that the fastest way to get the presidency was to cut shot the reign of Good-luck Jonathan, because if he had allow Jonathan to rule till 2019, then power moved north, it's would take South another 8 years (2027) before power returns and by then he ( Tinubu) would have been too old to contest, so he got his calculation well by saving 4year.

When Tinubu looked North to find an alliance, he went to no other person than Buhari who already is the biggest power house in Northern Nigeria, and the rest they say is history.

Now this is exactly what Kwankwaso is trying to do in a lesser time. Kwankwaso want the presidency to go South, any body that win between Tinubu and Peter Obi is a win for him. You will also agree with me that this is Tinubu and Atiku's last chance at the golden egg and when Atiku is out of the way in the North, who do you think his supporter in the North will rally round ( Mind you, Kwankwaso already have massive cult-like followers in Northwest).

When Atiku is gone and the South has ruled and when power returns to the North, who do you think would be the most likely to succeed?

Under the Nigerian standard, he can still vie for the presidency at least twice before he retires.

What I'm trying to say is this, since Atiku has lot his block vote in Southeast and still having issues with the G5. He has no base in the South because Tinubu owns the Southwest and majority of the SS states will be fest for all.

Kwankwaso is planning to disrupt and divide the Northwest vote and with this, were will Atiku get his votes from? Northeast can not win the election for him.

Kwankwaso is a visionary and futuristic politician

What do you think..

Your analysis is not far from the truth. The exact same reason Soludo attacked Peter Obi. It's all about political ambitions!
Kwankwaso has been under immense pressure to step aside for Atiku but the man refused!
I guess this might have formed the basis of the new discussions NNPP is said to be having with Labour Party!
In all, Obi is the oxygen Nigeria is hanging on, unfortunately, people laugh it off. Sri Lanka will be childs play if Obi doesn't win because these Politicians will punish us like thieves!

Localemperor:
He might Win, Edo, and Rivers. He would loss Dalta ( Okowa ).

Bayalsa, Cross river and Akwa ibom I can't tell.

Hahahaha, Obi will get more votes in Delta than Cross River.
Southerners are not unenlightened people who needs an imam to tell them who to vote! The best Atiku can do in Delta state is 25%

K

yemmit90:
Not only Kwankwaso, many of them including El-rufai, zulum, etc want power to return to South by all mean because that is the only chance they have to become president.

If I were him, I will definitely cut deal with Obi or Tinubu and wait patiently for 8 years for power to return North.

Them dey talk of presidential election, u dey call people (Obi) wet dey contest for SUG election

Penguin2:


You made sense.

It is in Kwankwaso’s best interest that a southerner wins the 2023 presidential election so that he can stand a very bright chance in 2031.

But he miscalculated big time by refusing to align with Obi, if not, the election would have been over.

However, you are wrong that Southsouth is a fest for all. Southsouth, like southeast, is Obi’s stronghold.

Obi is a bad market. If he aligned with him, he would have loss most of his followers. One should be thinking of aligning with competent political heavyweights with track records that would accrue votes not with baby politicians that are not even assured of winning their state. Kwankwaso is mile ahead of Obi in every ramification of leadership

Wickedfacts:


Kwankwaso should have given Obi a weak deputy and then come back in 8 years to contest Presidency.
Problem is that Kwankwaso doesn't trust Obi. He knows Obi is a snake and so, he doesn't want it. He prefers to cut a deal with Tinubu than to support Obi.
Kwankwaso is diluting Atiku's votes in the North, Obi is diluting Atiku's votes in the South.
Both doing the lord's work.

Kwankwaso can not deputies Obi honestly, even if it is the only way to his presidency he is too big for Obi to be his boss. It is a thing of pride I think.

There is no favorite yet from the three contenders, G5 is yet to declare their support for an candidate and I think will be a game changer.

Obidient4life2:


Hahahaha, Obi will get more votes in Delta than Cross River.
Southerners are not unenlightened people who needs an imam to tell them who to vote! The best Atiku can do in Delta state is 25%

There is a structure ( PDP ) and people who directly benefits from the party and Okowa directly. Okowa owns the state, the state will not fall on his watch. Let's see how things will place out.

Obidient4life2:

Your analysis is not far from the truth. The exact same reason Soludo attacked Peter Obi. It's all about political ambitions!
Kwankwaso has been under immense pressure to step aside for Atiku but the man refused!
I guess this might have formed the basis of the new discussions NNPP is said to be having with Labour Party!
In all, Obi is the oxygen Nigeria is hanging on, unfortunately, people laugh it off. Sri Lanka will be childs play if Obi doesn't win because these Politicians will punish us like thieves!

I don't think there will be any Sri Lanka in Nigeria if Obi looses. No body is ready for all that.

Penguin2:


You have a point.

With what he’s doing now, he’s gathering more supporters to himself which increases his popularity especially in the north.

And yes, becoming Vice President does position someone for the presidency; if anything, it brings you closest to the presidency.

Atiku would have succeeded Obasanjo if he wasn’t greedy and over ambitious.

Jonathan succeeded Yaradua; though we can argue it’s because of death. But death is part of the calculation.

Osinbajo wouldn’t have had any opposition in the race to succeed Buhari if he wasn’t a featherweight; a disadvantage Kwankwaso doesn’t have.

From inspection, How many VP has succeeded in becoming the President? None. You know why? The VP position makes you dormant, quite and slow. If you decides to be active, you will be labelled a rogue and too ambitious. Janathan was dormant until the death of Yar'adua, Sambo was quiet and he still is, Osinbenjo was there by proxy and when he decides to be ambitious, he was called a Judas.

Penguin2:


You have a point.

With what he’s doing now, he’s gathering more supporters to himself which increases his popularity especially in the north.

And yes, becoming Vice President does position someone for the presidency; if anything, it brings you closest to the presidency.

Atiku would have succeeded Obasanjo if he wasn’t greedy and over ambitious.

Jonathan succeeded Yaradua; though we can argue it’s because of death. But death is part of the calculation.

Osinbajo wouldn’t have had any opposition in the race to succeed Buhari if he wasn’t a featherweight; a disadvantage Kwankwaso doesn’t have.

Truer analysis. You are very correct, Kwankwaso does not have the disadvantage Osinbajo had

I believe Localemperor is also correct in his analysis, however he miss the point where Kwankwaso needs a southern connect to actually make it

Agbegbaorogboye:

Shettima ko. Boko Haram ni.
Are you even sure the Shettima will spend eight years with Tinubu?
Tinubu that's known for dumping deputies who try to exert themselves

I don't think tinubu has that same strength, in any case shettima is a beast himself and won't allow anyone run him down.

Like I told someone, a tinubu and shettima presidency will be war without end between tinubus men and shettima. Shettimas eyes is on the presidency, and it is very hard on it.

Me I am an obi supporter, but if Tinubu wins, I will join APC straight because power will not be leaving that party anytime soon.

Localemperor:
This analysis is purely my opinion and what I think he is trying to do.

Kwankwaso is not contesting to win the election next year,but he is trying to use the Buhari model in the north.

Did you know how many times Buhari contested before he was able to annex the 12m northern vote? Despite being former head of state, Buhari had to rally round North 3 times before he got it right.

Buhari becoming the most powerful contender in the north was because of his consistent hunger for power. Over years, he made the people rally round him.

In 2015, Tinubu saw that the fastest way to get the presidency was to cut shot the reign of Good-luck Jonathan, because if he had allow Jonathan to rule till 2019, then power moved north, it's would take South another 8 years (2027) before power returns and by then he ( Tinubu) would have been too old to contest, so he got his calculation well by saving 4year.

When Tinubu looked North to find an alliance, he went to no other person than Buhari who already is the biggest power house in Northern Nigeria, and the rest they say is history.

Now this is exactly what Kwankwaso is trying to do in a lesser time. Kwankwaso want the presidency to go South, any body that win between Tinubu and Peter Obi is a win for him. You will also agree with me that this is Tinubu and Atiku's last chance at the golden egg and when Atiku is out of the way in the North, who do you think his supporter in the North will rally round ( Mind you, Kwankwaso already have massive cult-like followers in Northwest).

When Atiku is gone and the South has ruled and when power returns to the North, who do you think would be the most likely to succeed?

Under the Nigerian standard, he can still vie for the presidency at least twice before he retires.

What I'm trying to say is this, since Atiku has lot his block vote in Southeast and still having issues with the G5. He has no base in the South because Tinubu owns the Southwest and majority of the SS states will be fest for all.

Kwankwaso is planning to disrupt and divide the Northwest vote and with this, were will Atiku get his votes from? Northeast can not win the election for him.

Kwankwaso is a visionary and futuristic politician

What do you think..

That's what some analyst believe but still, there are many factors that will work against him.

Having cult like followers will be different from having Buhari like followers plus, there are many other factors that he will contend with which have the power to consume him. Fair prediction still.

Penguin2:


You made sense.

It is in Kwankwaso’s best interest that a southerner wins the 2023 presidential election so that he can stand a very bright chance in 2031.

But he miscalculated big time by refusing to align with Obi, if not, the election would have been over.

However, you are wrong that Southsouth is a fest for all. Southsouth, like southeast, is Obi’s stronghold.

Kwankwaso is not looking for the presidency at this point in time, he is not interested in who among the duo emerges, the shout alug it out for all he cares.

He loses nothing by walking over Obi.

Yampotatocarrot:


Truer analysis. You are very correct, Kwankwaso does not have the disadvantage Osinbajo had

I believe Localemperor is also correct in his analysis, however he miss the point where Kwankwaso needs a southern connect to actually make it

Exactly!

He needed a southern connect.

And he also did not manage the entire situation very well that he ended up making enemies for himself in the south. But I know that doesn’t change anything as long as he remains popular in the north.

Localemperor:
From inspection, How many VP has succeeded in becoming the President? None. You know why? The VP position makes you dormant, quite and slow. If you decides to be active, you will be labelled a rogue and too ambitious. Janathan was dormant until the death of Yar'adua, Sambo was quiet and he still is, Osinbenjo was there by proxy and when he decides to be ambitious, he was called a Judas.

I’m afraid to admit that you are right.

The Vice Presidency position renders someone redundant and inactive.

If he stays loyal, he’s almost forgotten, if he tries to be too active, he’s labeled over ambitious.

But no matter how you say, I still insist that aligning with Obi would have brought Kwankwaso closest to his ambition.

Penguin2:


Exactly!

He needed a southern connect.

And he also did not manage the entire situation very well that he ended up making enemies for himself in the south. But I know that doesn’t change anything as long as he remains popular in the north.

The south is vast you know. SW, SE, SS.

Raheeqilmaktoom:


The south is vast you know. SW, SE, SS.

Yea, it is.

But do the calculation, if Tinubu wins (God forbid), Shettima will have the Southwest as his ally in the race to succeed Tinubu after 8 years or 4 years as the case maybe.

So, the only fallow region would be Southeast and Southsouth. With Tinubu completing his likely 8 years, no southern region can aspire for the presidency and Kwankwaso would hope to align with the Southeast and Southsouth while Shettima is aligning with the West.

Have you now seen why Obi’s victory is the best for Kwankwaso if he ever wants to become president? He may not like Obi or want him to win but that’s the unfortunate reality he has to face.

Penguin2:


Yea, it is.

But do the calculation, if Tinubu wins (God forbid), Shettima will have the Southwest as his ally in the race to succeed Tinubu after 8 years or 4 years as the case maybe.

So, the only fallow region would be Southeast and Southsouth. With Tinubu completing his likely 8 years, no southern region can aspire for the presidency and Kwankwaso would hope to align with the Southeast and Southsouth while Shettima is aligning with the West.

Have you now seen why Obi’s victory is the best for Kwankwaso if he ever wants to become president? He may not like Obi or want him to win but that’s the unfortunate reality he has to face.

There are many politicians he can pick from those regions, and with the right incentives, he will get enough to push him over the line.

If he succeeds in making himself a mini Buhari, he may not need more than 4m votes from the south and by picking a strong person from there especially SS, he will get those votes.

Localemperor:
I don't think there will be any Sri Lanka in Nigeria if Obi looses. No body is ready for all that.

That was how Endsars started! That was how it also happened in Central African Republic. If APC or PDP win, Fulani rampage will go to a new dimension and corruption will be emboldened, what will follow will shock the world!

Localemperor:
There is a structure ( PDP ) and people who directly benefits from the party and Okowa directly. Okowa owns the state, the state will not fall on his watch. Let's see how things will place out.

Sitting Governors lose election, so what makes you think the case of Ifeanyi will be different?
Between Ifeanyi and Obi who do you think commands more followers in terms of the presidential race!
We are not talking about governorship election, we are talking about presidential election!
The entire South is enlightened! Osibanjo has shown that the VP position is a useless position in Nigeria so don't think that the VP slot will make any difference. Meanwhile, Ifeanyi is an under performing governor. If it was Wike, he can pull bigger weight in his state.

Raheeqilmaktoom:


There are many politicians he can pick from those regions, and with the right incentives, he will get enough to push him over the line.

If he succeeds in making himself a mini Buhari, he may not need more than 4m votes from the south and by picking a strong person from there especially SS, he will get those votes.

If you were Kwankwaso’s strategist, would you advise him to plan on probables rather than what is most likely?

Obidient4life2:


Sitting Governors lose election, so what makes you think the case of Ifeanyi will be different?
Between Ifeanyi and Obi who do you think commands more followers in terms of the presidential race!
We are not talking about governorship election, we are talking about presidential election!
The entire South is enlightened! Osibanjo has shown that the VP position is a useless position in Nigeria so don't think that the VP slot will make any difference. Meanwhile, Ifeanyi is an under performing governor. If it was Wike, he can pull bigger weight in his state.

Lol!

That’s what they don’t realize.

If a sitting governor can lose his re-election bid, then Okowa can lose Delta in the presidential election and he would.

But you won’t blame them because they have never left their region to understand what is on ground in other places.

Obidient4life2:


Sitting Governors lose election, so what makes you think the case of Ifeanyi will be different?
Between Ifeanyi and Obi who do you think commands more followers in terms of the presidential race!
We are not talking about governorship election, we are talking about presidential election!
The entire South is enlightened! Osibanjo has shown that the VP position is a useless position in Nigeria so don't think that the VP slot will make any difference. Meanwhile, Ifeanyi is an under performing governor. If it was Wike, he can pull bigger weight in his state.

You do have a point on paper .... Governors lost elections they are not directly involved in, it is very hard for an incumbent Governor who is on a ballot either as a Senator, VP and seeking reelection to loss. This senerio happens in 1- 100 cases.

Penguin2:


I’m afraid to admit that you are right.

The Vice Presidency position renders someone redundant and inactive.

If he stays loyal, he’s almost forgotten, if he tries to be too active, he’s labeled over ambitious.

But no matter how you say, I still insist that aligning with Obi would have brought Kwankwaso closest to his ambition.

Its would have bring him closer to the Presidency no doubt. But it is also a sacrilege for Kwankwaso to be Obi Vice, that is how Northerns sees it. He can be vice to Orji Kalu or Tinubu but not Obi.

He has this feelings that he is bigger than Obi.

Localemperor:
This analysis is purely my opinion and what I think he is trying to do.

Kwankwaso is not contesting to win the election next year,but he is trying to use the Buhari model in the north.

Did you know how many times Buhari contested before he was able to annex the 12m northern vote? Despite being former head of state, Buhari had to rally round North 3 times before he got it right.

Buhari becoming the most powerful contender in the north was because of his consistent hunger for power. Over years, he made the people rally round him.

In 2015, Tinubu saw that the fastest way to get the presidency was to cut shot the reign of Good-luck Jonathan, because if he had allow Jonathan to rule till 2019, then power moved north, it's would take South another 8 years (2027) before power returns and by then he ( Tinubu) would have been too old to contest, so he got his calculation well by saving 4year.

When Tinubu looked North to find an alliance, he went to no other person than Buhari who already is the biggest power house in Northern Nigeria, and the rest they say is history.

Now this is exactly what Kwankwaso is trying to do in a lesser time. Kwankwaso want the presidency to go South, any body that win between Tinubu and Peter Obi is a win for him. You will also agree with me that this is Tinubu and Atiku's last chance at the golden egg and when Atiku is out of the way in the North, who do you think his supporter in the North will rally round ( Mind you, Kwankwaso already have massive cult-like followers in Northwest).

When Atiku is gone and the South has ruled and when power returns to the North, who do you think would be the most likely to succeed?

Under the Nigerian standard, he can still vie for the presidency at least twice before he retires.

What I'm trying to say is this, since Atiku has lot his block vote in Southeast and still having issues with the G5. He has no base in the South because Tinubu owns the Southwest and majority of the SS states will be fest for all.

Kwankwaso is planning to disrupt and divide the Northwest vote and with this, were will Atiku get his votes from? Northeast can not win the election for him.

Kwankwaso is a visionary and futuristic politician

What do you think..

The problem with your analysis is that it fails to account for the fact that a significant merger helped Buhari win the elections. And it was not a Buhari's plan. In fact, after his loss in 2011, Buhari retired from partisan politics.

Buhari would never have been president without that 2013 merger that produced APC.

Liamm:
you think if Buhari was exceptional, Osinbajo wouldn't have succeeded him?

Tinibu would not have allowed it, he will leave the party with ACN and his loyalist, then APC will go back to been a regional party.

Penguin2:


If you were Kwankwaso’s strategist, would you advise him to plan on probables rather than what is most likely?

Sorry to say this, but the SE has proven to be the most inconsequential (can't provide more than 3m votes, all other zones are way ahead of it) and most unreliable for a northerner (Buhari, Atiku). Putting all hope on SE is dangerous in itself.

Localemperor:
Its would have bring him closer to the Presidency no doubt. But it is also a sacrilege for Kwankwaso to be Obi Vice, that is how Northerns sees it. He can be vice to Orji Kalu or Tinubu but not Obi.

He has this feelings that he is bigger than Obi.

He won't be nice to OUK, say Soludo, yeah.

Localemperor:
I will remind you of this after the election in February

Don't mind him. Kwankwaso will definitely win Kano