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Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY - Politics - Nairaland

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Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 2:17pm On Jan 11, 2012
I just attended the mass rally against the removal of Fuel Subsidy at Falomo in Ikoyi, and it was quite an experience. I was particularly struck by the common resolve of the people: rich and poor stood side by side and spoke the same commitment.

My thoughts floated over to some of the arguments on this forum and  FELT that perhaps, just perhaps, those who argue vociferously in favor of the government in this matter would happen to be at such a rally they might understand a few subtleties about the history of mass movements that might slightly shift their perspectives. They might be persuaded to understand that it is important for the leader to sense the mood of the critical mass in critical matters. They might also be persuaded to understand that this protest is coming at a sensitive time for protests in world history: a time that favors the protester: and must importantly that there exist such creatures as "a bad time for a good idea" as well as "bad implementation of good plans". Beyond all these, they might come to recognize - and this was the theme of all the speakers at the FALOMO protest: that this is no longer so much about the subsidy itself as it is about the corruption and profligacy of government.

Every economic mass protest in history has tended to be about the profligacy of the aristocracy in the face of the suffering of the masses. It surprises me that pro government commentators who condemn the protests do not recognize this simple fact. There is also a question of deficit of trust.

At all events I have realized that no amount of emotion or sentiment (not that emotion or sentiment have no place in these matters) will suffice to draw the attention of commentators who argue in favor of the government in this matter. For this reason, I have decided to advance kindergarten simplified arguments to drive home the point.

I call them kindergarten arguments not because they do not bear the force of soundness: but because they are rendered in a simplified form that makes them difficult to refute - at least in my view. I have no doubt that there will yet be refutations of every kind.

Simplified Argument No. 1 -

Point: The removal of the subsidy is advanced as an action that will release massive funds for development. This will only be true if indeed the funds are as massive as claimed (N1.3 TR). In reality, the funds are NOT as massive as claimed because the subsidy has been funded under 300 billion for more than ten years. It suddenly quadrupled to the currently claimed amount only in 2011.

- This means that the real funds to be released from actual subsidy would be in the region of 300 billion and not 1.3 tr.

- This means that the funds mentioned as justification for the removal are not in fact so

- This means that a non-corrupt removal of the subsidy would in fact only save less than 300 billion - which is by no means a sum sufficient to fund or advance the infrastructure deficit which the government complains of.

- This means that the excess (between 300 billion and 1.3 tr) are monies which are actually being corruptly acquired

- This means that the correct thing for the government to do will be to identify and prosecute the persons and institutions facilitating this massive fraud.

-  This means that if the government does this, the cost of the subsidy will be no more than 300 billion - which sum is not outrageous and which sum cannot be claimed as that which is needed to develop our economy or meet our infrastructure deficit - especially within a budget exceeding 4 Tr. Naira.

This is kindergarten argument No. 1.

I will return with many more.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 2:58pm On Jan 11, 2012
SUMMARY OF FIRST ARGUMENT: THE REAL SUBSIDY IS <300 BILLI0N - NOT 1.3 TR. THIS SUM CANNOT JUSTIFY EITHER THE MACRO EFFECT OF THE REMOVAL OR THE ARGUMENT THAT SUCH A SUM WOULD DEAL WITH THE INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT WITHIN A BUDGET OF > 4 TRILLION.

Lets proceed to the second simplified argument.

Simplified Argument No. 2.

POINT: The subsidy arose as a result of the advent of fuel importation. Fuel importation arose as a result of the failure of the refineries. The refineries failed as a result of the failure and incompetence of government. The government was thus subsidizing it's incompetence.

Therefore -

- The government needs to correct its failures which led to the subsidy regime

- Either drectly or through PPPs

- Before seeking to shirk responsibility for payment of a subsidy which was brought about by its incompetence.  the advent of fuel importation. Fuel importation arose as a result of the filure of the refineries. The refineries failed as a result of the failure and incompetence of government. The government was thus subsidizing it's incompetence.

Therefore -

- The government needs to correct its failures which led to the subsidy regime

- Either drectly or through PPPs

- Before seeking to shirk responsibility for payment of a subsidy which was brought about by its incompetence.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by UyiIredia(m): 4:02pm On Jan 11, 2012
@ DeepSight >>> I believe you must have glanced through the PROPOSED 2012 budget for the presidency. [url=http://www.budgetoffice.gov.ng/2012_budget_pro_details/1.%20Summary_Presidency1.pdf]Here it is[/url]. For more [url=http://www.budgetoffice.gov.ng/2012_budget_pro_details/1.%20Summary_Presidency1.pdf]click here[/url]

Furthermore, I have a question regarding your post: Where did you get the information about the subsidy being less than ^300 billion ?
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 4:26pm On Jan 11, 2012
The subsidy was indeed paid for at less than 300 billion per year for over ten years before 2011. Indeed, the 2011 budget provided for less than 300 billion.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by duno: 4:33pm On Jan 11, 2012
Subscribing
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by Nobody: 4:40pm On Jan 11, 2012
hmm
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by UyiIredia(m): 5:29pm On Jan 11, 2012
Deep Sight:

The subsidy was indeed paid for at less than 300 billion per year for over ten years before 2011. Indeed, the 2011 budget provided for less than 300 billion.

Okay. What do you suppose the excess money comes from ?
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 6:40pm On Jan 11, 2012
^ Corruption.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by hercules07: 6:53pm On Jan 11, 2012
@Uyi

Jonathan's Election, how do you think he bribed all the people he did.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by blacksta(m): 7:05pm On Jan 11, 2012
He is very correct - the extra on top of 300b is a makeup of interests payments, inflated figures, demurrage charges.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by blacksta(m): 7:11pm On Jan 11, 2012
There is an arrangement btw importers and government,  upon delivery of fuel , government must pay within 90 days, but what you have was typical payments days of almost 200 days.  The agreement also stipulates that I can start charging interests after 90 days. With dollar flucating against Naira everyday the interest payments became astronomical. Importing fuel is big business, you can imagine the big interest payements. All these extra increases happened under Gej, why it happened I don't know
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by blacksta(m): 7:17pm On Jan 11, 2012
If you also remember, a number of times importers have threatened to stop importing unless government settles their accounts
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by karlmax2: 7:23pm On Jan 11, 2012
blacksta:
If you also remember,  a number of times importers have threatened to stop importing unless government settles their accounts

What government is saying that let's stop giving NNPC N1.3tr and give this money. The 3 tiers of government

Provide for their own people.

to
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 7:28pm On Jan 11, 2012
The point is that 1.3 tr is a corrupt figure. This so called subsidy has been financed under 300 billion for more than 10 years. The sudden increase to 1.3 tr represents corruption of the highest order. The government needs to deal with that corruption - especially as this astronomical increase has occurred within one year only.

It is not a coincidence that that year ws an election year.

In addittion, that same year witnessed the depletion of the external reserves to an unprecedented degree.

Gentlemen, this fellow has cleaned out. Now he wants you to pay the price.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by realborn(m): 7:34pm On Jan 11, 2012
@deep sight,
God bless you. You have summarised my last three articles appropriately on the subsidy subject!
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by lagerwhenindoubt(m): 7:41pm On Jan 11, 2012
Uyi Iredia:

Okay. What do you suppose the excess money comes from ?

Was there an excess in the first place   or are we working with inflateddistorted figures wink

At this point, 50+ years after, it is difficult to reconcile figures from the Federal Government with the economic realities of the past 20-30 years. IMHO, we (National Institutions) have a culture of distorting numbers to undermine Governance and sustain an Eco-system of Corruption (in every sense of the word) be it Election results, Satellites in space, costs of hosting a sports festival, Population figures, Government contracts, Revenue from the sale of crude or something as simple as costs of daily meals for the Office of the President; an economy that truly defies explanation  grin

There will always be gaps that cannot be explained away as academic anomalies, the presence of implausible figures leaves room for plausible assumptions -- CORRUPTION

NEPA (of yore) once published an account of spending for the month and unwittingly exposed high-levels of corruption: laptops for executives bought for N1 million when the same model on the market was nowhere near N100k  grin. It is a striking phenomena that has trailed previous administrations since that past 3-decades; the use of economic reforms and policies (that have been proven to work in similar economies as ours)  to induce heavy government-spending with little or zero results and (strikingly common) no plans for sustainability (popularly known as maintenance-culture, now referred to as Continuity). Unfortunately the impact of failure is hardly felt at Government levels. As long as Oil dollars continue flowing (regardless the amount) only the massive (internal) micro-economies and the private sector struggle to adjust to such failures.

You know a Government Policy is bound for failure when Pre-conditions for a successful execution have not been addressed first or at best; planned as "post-implementation activities" (typically "High-cost" palliative measures that cannot be sustained either). A sad reality is that "Economists" such as Sanusi Lamido and Iweala and FEC work on a simple analogy - Stick an injection into a sick patient and the illness is cured - whether the patient is in the right condition for the drug or how he will react is not up for discussion. after-all it is Nigerians we are talking about, we thrive under such conditions  grin
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by oderemo(m): 7:45pm On Jan 11, 2012
govt have not thoroughly think this thru,
my argument is this , the subsidy benefit will be shared btw the 3 tiers, fed, state and local govt.
u now think , hang on what are we benefiting frm the present allocated funds.
start with the local govt, my local govt in ogun gets close to 200 mil every month or thereabt, small percentage goes to run the council and what nots. majority is spent settling obas, chiefs and buying favours here and there.
corruption and inefficiency has become the bane of our problem and this is what jonathan needs to fight.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 7:48pm On Jan 11, 2012
lagerwhenindoubt:

A sad reality is that "Economists" such as Sanusi Lamido and Iweala and FEC work on a simple analogy - Stick an injection into a sick patient and the illness is cured - whether the patient is in the right condition for the drug or how he will react is not up for discussion. after-all it is Nigerians we are talking about, we thrive under such conditions  grin


Critical point.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 7:53pm On Jan 11, 2012
IF we agree that:

1. The subsidy has been funded under 300 billion pr year over the last decade, and even in the year preceding last year [FACT]

2. 300 Billion would not suffice for the "development" and "amenities" and "imprivement" of life which the government talks about

3. 300 billion per year CANNOT bankrupt the government (where the budget exceeds N4 TR)

Then it is obvious that the core arguments made by Mrs Okonjo Wahala regarding the subsidy issue all fail: and the only recourse is to address the hydra headed corruption which quadrupled the cost of the so called subsidy.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by karlmax2: 7:54pm On Jan 11, 2012
ode remo:
govt have not thoroughly think this thru,
my argument is this , the subsidy benefit will be shared btw the 3 tiers, fed, state and local govt.
u now think , hang on what are we benefiting frm the present allocated funds.
start with the local govt, my local govt in ogun gets close to 200 mil every month or thereabt, small percentage goes to run the council and what nots. majority is spent settling obas, chiefs and buying favours here and there.
corruption and inefficiency has become the bane of our problem and this is what jonathan needs to fight.

Go ask ur GOVERNORs and LGA CHAIRMAN but here is what mine told me after they pay salaries the remaining one is used for the development of state and LGA infra structures and programs. Now the FG is saying let us stop giving NNPC the N1.3tr for subsidy and give dis fund to the state and LG to build more infrastructures but we the people are saying no
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 7:57pm On Jan 11, 2012
^ There is not, and has never been, a 1.3 trillion subsidy. That is a preposterously corrupt contrivance which the government ought to have been ashamed to advance in the first instance.

Given that that is a corrupt contrivance, the building block for ALL the main arguments in favor of subsidy removal is destroyed.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by realborn(m): 8:05pm On Jan 11, 2012
@ KarlMax,
What is being said here is that the govt cooked the N1.3trillion story based on her ineptitude via subsidy. The actual amount for subsidy is within the N300billion range.

The way forward for national development are:

- reduce recurrent expenditure. Add the savings to the budget for Capital expenditure or infrastructure.
- all tiers of government should use suitably their share of the excess crude oil and not subsidy savings which do not exist.
- stop inflation of contracts and ensure projects have specifix scope, cost and are timebound
- deal with corrupt practices.

It is sad that the budgetary allowance for capital expenditure over the years have not yielded any positive impact.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 8:07pm On Jan 11, 2012

Simplified Argument No 3

POINT: PMS ought to be a local product. It always was a local product whilst the refineries functioned at an acceptable level, and this is the minimum that should obtain before anything else is contemplated. At 141, PMS would cost in Port Harcourt about what it costs in New York: Which is ludicrous given that much of the PMS sold there originates as Bonny Light Crude in Nigeria. As a local product, PMS ought by all accounts be cheaper in Nigeria, than it is half way across the world.

Simplified Argument No 4

POINT: The Multiplier Effect
: The abrupt increment in the cost of PMS will have a ripple effect on inflation of virtually ALL goods and services across the local market: this will tanslate not only to increased cost of living (generated from the cost of a commodity that ought to be a local product) but also thereby reduce the competitive capacity of Nigerian Enterprises. The over-all cost of this as a nation would far exceed the cost of what the subsidy was in fact: 300 billion only - and NOT 1.3 Trillion.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 8:15pm On Jan 11, 2012
Simplified Argument No. 5 -

Is Nigeria going bankrupt? The government parrots the bankruptcy argument as part f its reasons for the removal of PMS subsidy.

Given that the true cost of subsidy is less than 300 Billion - which equates to about 2 billion USD -

How does a nation that earns > 30 billion USD per year from the sale of crude oil go bankrupt on account of a petroleum subsidy costing 2 billion USD?

The same nation had about 80 billion USD as reserve only 2 years ago.

Deduction: The dissapearance of that reserve is not a consequence of the subsidy: even if the preposterously contrived figures of the government were to be believed. The bankruptcy argument is thus a sham.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by Nobody: 9:20pm On Jan 11, 2012
@Deepsight

I hope you will argue about the excessive wasteful government that we have. Isnt that part of the whole brouhaha?
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 9:39pm On Jan 11, 2012
^ Yes of course, so let'as throw that in straight away.

Simplified Argument No 6

POINT: THE Subsidy is dwarfed by the outrageously corrupt cost of government


It is well known that the our legislators are the highest paid IN THE WORLD. The cost of the remuneration for the National Assembly alone is over 1 Tr.

Given that the real cost of the subsidy is <300 billion, it follows that the cost of this subsidy (barring the ridiculous quadrupulation of last year alone) is aout 25% ONLY of the cost of paying and maintaining our legislooters.

This alone indicates that the problem is by no means the subsidy, but the shamefully overbloated cost of corrupt governance.

People have drawn the analogy that 1 trillion can be spent on less than 500 legislators, but like sum for 160 million people is reprehensible in the eyes of the government. This is apt: but not even clear enough. To be clear, we need to additionally note that -

1. The real sum is NOT 1 Trillion but only about 25% of that - as proven by prior budgets

2. It also goes beyond merely giving a handout to the people: it has macro economic impacts as it shores against the multi-sector hyper inflation that a removal would induce with respect to the cost of ALL goods and services.

Thus which is of greater value - a 300 billion subsidy which protects the market from unsavory hyper inflation and cushions the masses (bearing in mind that the subsidy first arose from the incompetence of government) or a 1 trillion budget for lawmakers salaries?
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by manny4life(m): 9:40pm On Jan 11, 2012
Deep Sight:

IF we agree that:

1. The subsidy has been funded under 300 billion pr year over the last decade, and even in the year preceding last year [FACT]

2. 300 Billion would not suffice for the "development" and "amenities" and "imprivement" of life which the government talks about

3. 300 billion per year  CANNOT bankrupt the government (where the budget exceeds N4 TR)

Then it is obvious that the core arguments made by Mrs Okonjo Wahala regarding the subsidy issue all fail: and the only recourse is to address the hydra headed corruption which quadrupled the cost of the so called subsidy.


1). How can we agree to these as "FACTS"? We don't have working statistics to prove this "FACTS" or do you?

Isn't it rather unlikely that fuel will stay under N300 billion meanwhile waste as well as consumption has doubled? Doesn't make much sense to me, Though 2011 figures of subsidy was N1.3+ Trillion, we know why, however, we cannot exempt the fact that the true cost of thing "if everything being equal" cost of subsidy has actually increase by a huge percentage due to consumer consumption.



2). How do you mean 300 Billion will not suffice for the development speaks of? Did the govt tell you that subsidy money was the ONLY money to be used developments? Like seriously? I believe the govt argument all this while has been, subsidy money will go into developmental/infrastructural projects for better life improvement. BTW, almost $2billion (i.e. if it's not more) is more than enough to construct brand new rails, bridges, hospitals, rehabilitate education institutions and the list goes on. The bottom line is that the people DO NOT trust the government NOT THAT the money saved from it is not tangible,



3). Dude, more than $2billion (i.e.if its not more than) cannot bankrupt the government? Have you looked lately at the budget? 2012 budget was about $24+ Billion, so you say about 9% of the budget dedicated to just one line item cannot bankrupt the government? Well, I have no words for you on that one because if I spend such amount of subsidy meanwhile education and everything lacks behind, I'm sure yall will still blame govt.



With or without the GOVT WASTE, budgeting almost 1/10th of one single line expense out of hundreds of line items in a budget is NOT sustainable to a govt seeking aggressive development.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 10:07pm On Jan 11, 2012
manny4life:


1). How can we agree to these as "FACTS"? We don't have working statistics to prove this "FACTS" or do you?

The facts are well established.

Isn't it rather unlikely that fuel will stay under N300 billion meanwhile waste as well as consumption has doubled?

The evidence does not incline towards any significant increase in terms of consumption. Certainly not an increase that can explain a situation whereby the subsidy is funded under 300 billion per year for over ten years, and then in ONE YEAR ONLY, it is claimed that the cost increased by 1 trillion naira to 1.3 trillion.

That is an insulting statistic: it bespeaks fraud of the highest order - and certainly proves the point that normal increase in consumption is NOT at play here.

2). How do you mean 300 Billion will not suffice for the development speaks of?

What i mean is that the government parrots the removal of the subsidy as a step that will release critical funds for development. It premises this argument on the fraudulent cost of subsidy at 1.3 trillion - which magical figure only appeared in the last one year - rising from under 300 billion per year only. The point here is that if the cost is held at its true level - less than 300 billion - this is not a sum that the government can argue will save Nigeria's infrastructure deficit because -

1. That sum represents only about 7 - 8 per cent of the budget. That per cent is not going to bridge the gap of the infrastructure deficit. 

2.  Considering the critical role payed by the subsidy in the economy both as a welfare item and as a buffer against rippled infalation in the cost of living, 7 - 8 per cent of the budget is not an improper investment in the subsidy.

3. The subsidy came about on account of an import regime that arose from the incompetence of the government. The government thus cannot shirk it as a responsibility that arose from its own failure with regard to the refineries.

4. The government indeed expends greater percentages on far less important items: one such example is the legislators salaries.

5. Greater sums (an example of which i will give below) have been provided sevrally by the government year in year out: with zero results.

Did the govt tell you that subsidy money was the ONLY money to be used developments? Like seriously?

But of course since the argument is about removing the subsidy to facilitate development, we must naturally consider to what extent such funds can do so.

I believe the govt argument all this while has been, subsidy money will go into developmental/infrastructural projects for better life improvement.

Let me remind you that in a particular year alone, the government of Olusegun Obasanjo dedicated 300 billion to the Ministry of Works for roads. The entire sum disappeared. It is thus a hard sell to argue that the removal of subsidy is what is now required only to provide the exact same sum of money for supposed infrastructure again. Far greater amounts have been made available for infrastructure. What became of them? This thus shows that -

- The government does not need to remove the subsidy to make such sums available and

- Where such sums have been available, they have invariably disappeared

BTW, almost $2billion (i.e. if it's not more) is more than enough to construct brand new rails, bridges, hospitals, rehabilitate education institutions and the list goes on.

If that were the case, then all those amenities would exist perfectly completed already - because Nigeria can afford that sum over and over and over and over again, yes sir.

The bottom line is that the people DO NOT trust the government

True

NOT THAT the money saved from it is not tangible,

Not tangible enough for the sort of National across-board infrastructure being envisioned and advertised.

3). Dude, more than $2billion (i.e.if its not more than) cannot bankrupt the government?

No it cannot. The bankruptcy argument is an insulting and nefarious lie.

With or without the GOVT WASTE, budgeting almost 1/10th of one single line expense out of hundreds of line items in a budget is NOT sustainable to a govt seeking aggressive development.

If the line-item is critical enough, 10 per cent of the budget is not beyond borders. Other line items regularly consume more, believe me. Secondly you may recall that this expense came about on account of the negligence of the government itself.

Finally let me also remind you that the Olusegun Obasanjo government paid off Nigeria's over 30 billion USD debt (under a buy-back at about 18 billion USD) - WHILE STILL PAYING THE FUEL SUBSIDY - under an oil price regime not significantly different from today's.

What gives bro?
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by realborn(m): 10:13pm On Jan 11, 2012
@ Manny4life,
Kindly note the following:

1. The astronomical increase was not due to increase in consumption but corruption and mismanagement.Even SLS confirmed the rot in the monitoring system when he said officers at the port sign falsified documents. Inability to curtail smuggling is another reason given by the govt's economic team which invariably means govt failure. Shocking revelations from people who are expected to protect us all. They lack the will to face their corrupt cronies because the last elections and enrichment exercise was through same means. The touted savings of N1.3trillion is to close their tracks for 2011 after embezzling trillions of Naira to pave way for alleged infrastructural development. Why subsidy savings of a meagre N1.3trillion and not excess crude savings of N4trillion?

2. What happened to the N1.147trillion Naira budgeted for capital development in 2011? Are we to maintain the deceit when such huge sums are not aptly used by people elected into government to guard our interest in its stead rob us black and blue?

3. The N300b subsidy if it exists at all, can not crash the economy. The recurrent expenditure will if not checked. Cost of running government in Nigeria is the highest. If GEJ's team work astutely to save N1trillion Naira from their allocations, Nigerians will have more for infrastructure. Charity begins at home. Also the culture of depleting our foreign reserves (N4trillion must stop). It is pilfering of the highest order. GEJ has been part of the executive with nothing to show for it. Shame shame shame.

Lastly, the poor masses can not afford the multiplier effect of the increase of PMS on all the other sectors. Salaries and wages have not increased. This is the major problem. The FGN has no solution in place other than speculations and blackmail.

Please read the arguments from Deep Sight again and again.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by gabbytabby: 10:53pm On Jan 11, 2012
What I really dont understand is the inability to digest the information by some elements of the Nigerian Public on this issue

We want President Jonathan to go after the cabal even with this facts to hand. While knowing full well that there is massive corruption in the system

1) They have conducted an audit of the subsidy regime by using deemed "reputable Accountancy and Audit firms"
2) The systems is so fraud riden that the cabals have been able to bribe their way through all the internal safeguards built into the system.
3) They have all the paperwork to proof all their fraudulent transactions are supposedly legitimate.
4) The cabals are people and organisations that you would deem to be the pillars and Godfathers of the society "what a society".
5) The cabals are even brothers and sisters of some members of the current legislative and executive arm of government.


In this type of situation who should he first go after? or is he able to go after? is it the custom men who issue the fraudulent documents( he might need the police to put a gun to their head and force out a confession first and which of you is ready to stand in line to do this job or make he go do am by himself). I really dont get it.

Accepted that the timing of the subsidy removal is ill advised but, considering the cross border effect of it, what should be the status quo should be how can the effects be mitigated on Nigerians and not how to continue to line the pockets of all the rougues in the system to the tune of trillions of Naira.The only conclusion that I am able to arrive at is that the people advocating this must be the rouges.
Deepsight
From your argument the subsidy is actually 300billion but the system is so corrupt that they are able to provide paperwork to a tune of 1.3 trillion which the FG is obliged to pay within 90days or face additional interest cost. What would be your advise on dealing with this issue and while all the supposed investigation is ongoing, what happens to the ones that continue to accumulate in the system? continue paying them even if it mounts up to 2 or 10 trillion or what would you advise that interim measures should be.

I would have to assume that the FG currently has some capital budget and having additional monies to add to this in my mind should speed up delivery or turn around times or am I missing something. Is it really relevant that this amount is 300billion or 1.3trillion. Considering that they already paid 1.3 trillion is this figure just speculation or is there a high probablity that if they continue to pay the Cabals, the effect of this is that it will need to be funded from a source and the likelihood is for this amount to actually swallow up all of their capital expenditure budget such that no infrastructure can be provided or do you think that this excalating figure is more likely to be funded from the recurrent budget? I think highly unlikely. We really need to start to have some joined up thinking and look at the full ramification. The reality in my mind is that in the interim, these savings will be used to shore up the effects of the subsidy removal so that real gains would be in the 2nd to 3rd year.

While I am not trying to rubbish the significant effects of the subsidy removal on the populace, I do however believe that a high proportion say 52%  of the fall out from the subsidy removal is usually from people taking undue advantage of the situation because a significant proportion of the commercial goods and commercial people transportation is by diesel powered vehicles and as such the effect on public transportation should have been limited to the ones that are PMS powered and personal vehicles so there is greed being perpetrated by the citizenry(public transporters) against the people of the nation.

If what SLS is saying is correct and I do get a sense that 85% of what he is saying is the fact then, I do believe that the Government is presented with a situation where it has a rope tied around its neck and whole body and it needs to either sink or swim. I do believe that there are better ways to get to the same conclusion or to be more specific it need not be just one action, it needed to be a series of linked actions which might not have resulted in such far reaching effect on the country at large and their focus on the cabals which included people in their Government meant they forgot about the Nigerian who should have been their main focus.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by DeepSight(m): 11:16pm On Jan 11, 2012
gabbytabby:


Deepsight
From your argument the subsidy is actually 300billion but the system is so corrupt that they are able to provide paperwork to a tune of 1.3 trillion which the FG is obliged to pay within 90days or face additional interest cost. What would be your advise on dealing with this issue and while all the supposed investigation is ongoing, what happens to the ones that continue to accumulate in the system? continue paying them even if it mounts up to 2 or 10 trillion or what would you advise that interim measure should be.


Now here is a point that I find particularly unnaceptable. That argument by SLS to the effect that it is impossible to curb the corruption in the system on account of the presentation of false documentation is in my view one of the most defeatist, irresponsible and unintelligent arguments I have ever heard in my life.

In the first instance, it amounts to an admission of incompetence on the part of the government. Such a governmentr ought to honorably resign.

However to your question. It beats the imagination that a government can assert that ships come into its ports, deliver a tangible product (petroleum), and that such a product is received at designated terminals, and that the government is unable to determine the quantities of the product that are brought in.

This is a callous and shocking thing to say: the and it amazes me that Nigerians ascribe intelligence to Sanusi Lamido Sanusi for this most ridiculous admission of the worst form of clueless incompetence. How can it seriously be asserted that a government, if serious, cannot determine the volume of petroleum off-loaded at its ports? ? ?

Aside from the fact that Petroleum is delivered through terminals and as such can be readily measured, there is the addittional fact that this petroleum is sold through a marketing line up to the point where it reaches the final consumer at the Gas Station. Every step of the process is traceable and verifiable: the downstream operators have the product in storage and transfer it to their sales points; before this, they purchased the product and can confirm the quantities purchased and the quantities sold. The entire process can be traced from both ends.

It is the height of irresponsibility for a government to state that it cannot determine such. Such a government is not fit to manage even a nursery school, let alone a nation such as Nigeria. In any civilized clime, such a statement is enough to cause the fall of the government.

Bizzarely, in Nigeria, some people are celebrating SLS for making this sort of statement, chanting about how intelligent he is!

I don't think I can ever understand this country.

There is no excuse whatsoever for stating that false documenation cannot be addressed. However it is noteworthy that such practices could not have originated in 2011 alone and as such this serves as no explanation for the unique jump in the cost of the sucsidy for 2011.
Re: Simplified Arguments RE: SUBSIDY by leaderone(m): 4:12am On Jan 12, 2012
@gabby tabby

Have been following this subsidy removal argument for a while now and believe me I have read and heard all sorts, however this particular argument by YOU is by far the most annoying.

ARE YOU seriously giving us such a stupid excuse? That do we expect GEJ to go after these corrupt importers and Govt officials?

WHAT Rubbish!!! What then is he doing there? You keep telling me that I have to pay because GEJ is scared of doing his Job? What did he expect when he asked us to vote for him?

That it was going to be a walk in the park? JESUS!!!

He has the Police, EFCC, ICPC, SSS, NIA, DMI etc and he is telling us he cannot fight corruption?

Then we are to sweat and give him an extra 1.3tri to squander away?

It is rather unfortunate that we live in such a nation. In the west, some of this excuses are grounds for speedy impeachment!!!

Let him resign if he does not have the balls to take the bull by the horn and do the needful

Please it is just past 4am, don't post such crap next time as it is capable of messing up ones morning

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