This is a reply to you, Barcanista on how possible it is for GMB to accomplish his social programs. I stand with the fact that it is very possible and realistic.


I must firstly create awareness to you and the readers on the misconceptions in your writing and what they ought to be.


1. Buhari to pay 25m unemployed N5000/month:
Buhari promised to pay N5000 to 25m poor families or most vulnerable citizens not unemployed youth, and a poor Nigerian is entitle to this stipend if he meet certain clauses. An excerpt from Prof. Yemi Osinbajo explanation before general election stated thus;

“We will give N5, 000 to the poorest 25 million over a phased period, if their children are enrolled in school and participate in immunization.
“So we are actually doing two things; we are giving stipends to the very poorest and ensuring that in order to earn that stipend they certify two conditions”

This clearly state that a man that will be entitle to this must be a married man with kids and must meet those clauses.

* Buhari didn't promise to pay N5000 to 25m poor families at a time. In PYO's explanation on this before the election, he stressed that:

“We are looking at phasing it over a period because it will cost about N1.35 trillion to do so if we do all 25 million at once.
He maintained that, if elected,the programme will be done in batches of 5 million people a year, adding that “depending on resources we can even do more”.

This clearly explain that the schedule is for 5 million people a year and not 25 million as you earlier stated. This state categorically that the N1.5 trillion will be spent on this project for 5 years and not for a year as you stated in your analysis. Only N300b is needed for this yearly.


2. Buhari to Provide daily meal for Primary school pupil:
Thanks for bringing in the case of Osun state into this point, it will make it clearer. On this point, you came up with a total sum of N373 billion per annum. We all saw the recent statistics of revenue allocated to each state by FG, I saw it here on Nairaland, Osun is the lowest earning state and I don't think Osun's IGR is up to 30% of the allocation it get from FG. Probably why the state owe workers some months salary. It depend solely on FG allocation and their has been a cut in the allocation of each state since last year due to the fall in oil price. Osun could still afford feeding Primary 1 to 4 student despite this circumstances.


The case is simple, to save more revenue. The federal goverment could collaborate with states government in order to achieve this goal. The cost may be shared between both tiers of government in a case of 60:40 or 70:30.
If you remain adamant it should be done alone by FG, no problem, further analysis will clear the air.

***********************************
Going into your analysis we have a deficit of aproximately N1.9 trillion or we have a sum of N1.9 trillion to raise. With this analysis, it will clearly show that's a pathetic fallacy. As said earlier, the payment of the stipend is going to be done in batches, 5 million people per year. The cost of paying 5 million people this sum will equals:

N1.5 trillion / 5 years
= N300 billion a year

Also, N373 billion is needed for feeding primary school pupils a year. This eventually equals to:

N300b + N373b = N673b

This is approximately N700 billion naira per annum contrary to N1.87 trillion you stated in your analysis.

Your analysis was also base solely on the revenue generated from oil, their was no consideration for other sectors and also note that our budget is prepared with all eyes all oil revenue.

The incoming administration has promised to diversify the economy. GMB claims he will generate incomes from other sectors such as mining, agriculture, etc.


As Obiagelli stated, Nigeria annual income on oil this year if oil is sold at $60 per barrel through out the year will be N5.1 trillion naira (after 40% of the income has been transferred to the oil companies) with 2m barrels sold daily though we actually produced and sells officially 2.5m barrels daily (though some corners rumoured it to be 4 millions barrels).

N5.1tri - N4.6b = N500 billion.
We will have an excess of more than the needed N700 billion if the exact 2.5m barrel daily and possibilities of increase in oil price.


As Obiagelli stated on her thread, FIRS generates N4.6 trillion in 2014. If the same amount is generated every year, we will have:

N4.6tri - N700b = N3.9 trillion
That is an excess of approximately N4 trillion every year if the revenue remains stagnant in the coming years and their is a high probability of it growing.


Apart from this 2 ways I stated, we could also get the N700b from mining, agriculture, etc.


With this I stressed it possible for this social program to be accomplished by GMB's administration.


NOTE: I 'm not saying that GMB will fulfil the promise but I 'm only acclaiming the fact that it is very possible to be accomplished.

Ok.

Make he no disappoint us o.

What what what are you saying? Is buhari d president elect of just the northern part of dis country?

Laudable and achievable but even I a strong supporter of GMB would rather have him channel our resources towards others areas of needs...
After positioning our country back to the part of greatness, then we can start looking towards social welfare programmes like these....

Nice write up man, only here on nairaland will u see people claiming being literate yet they can't make research but stick to the lies been generated cuz of hatred

Frontpage pls!

asadike:
What what what are you saying? Is buhari d president elect of just the northern part of dis country?

Are you sure you are alright?


Did you read the post or you only felt like commenting

efilefun:
Nice write up man, only here on nairaland will u see people claiming being literate yet they can't make research but stick to the lies been generated cuz of hatred

You need not to give a damn to their saying. The truth is always bitter to the idler on nairaland.


I guess they should be ashamed of their ignoble comments before the election but they went on criticizing the General as he coast into victory.

asadike:
What what what are you saying? Is buhari d president elect of just the northern part of dis country?

Are you sure you're okay?? Who's said anything about the north here

Don't mind Barcanista. Just as he was proved wrong on Buhari not winning the South West he will be proved wrong again. I just wonder if he read Osinbajo 's analysis before opening his thread. I have told him to stop disgracing himself on this forum but he won't listen.
Buhari will once again prove him wrong and shame his master.

here we go again.

I find it bemusing that out of sheer idleness and blind hate some persons deem it fit to unecessarily nit pic GMB/APC manifestos.

A trait they refuse to subject GEJ/PDP manifestos to.

Isnt it Hypocrisy?

Nice write up ....pdp supporters are just pessimists,they can never see anything good in GMB....cos they know he'll outperform GEJ ..

themilanway:
I find it bemusing that out of sheer idleness and blind hate some persons deem it fit to unecessarily nit pic GMB/APC manifestos.

A trait they refuse to subject GEJ/PDP manifestos to.

Isnt it Hypocrisy?

Exactly! Its pure hypocrisy...nothing more nothing less

crownprince102:

Hypocrisy at it peak.


GEJ promised to deliver uninterrupted power supply in 2 years in office. No one doubted him. Where is the MegaWatt today?


Why is this thread not of front page yet?
Seun
Ishilove
Lalasticlala
Maclatunji

obiageli's counter thread already made it to fp

lalasticlala:



obiageli's counter thread already made it to fp

This thread explains and counters it better. It supplies full explanation and some necessary information which is not on Obiageli's thread. Please let this make the fp.

themilanway:
I find it bemusing that out of sheer idleness and blind hate some persons deem it fit to unecessarily nit pic GMB/APC manifestos.

A trait they refuse to subject GEJ/PDP manifestos to.

Isnt it Hypocrisy?

It is actually a good thing that people are scrutinising what their leaders say. The era where people just followed blindly did a lot of damage.

OP is saying that the allowances for poor families will be given to only 5 million. What possible criteria that ensures fairness on a national scale will Buhari use to determine this deserving 5 million?

Seeing is believe

Nigerians always counting our chicks before the eggs are laid

why una dey give that joker response

Its not possible and its silly.

First of all 5000 naira monthly with the current inflation rate and exchange rates makes no sense. It wont lift anyone out of poverty. Aside the economic costs, the logistics, arrangement and management burdens will be entirely overwhelming that at the end of the day, not more than 1 million people would be able to access the funds.
Nigeria won't be able to afford any social security programs in the next five years.

On the school feeding, I believe that the program won't be available to states with low poverty rates and high literacy rates. They won't need such a program in anambra, imo state or abia state. That will be their saving grace.

The only feasible way the federal government can raise the finance as fast as possible is if they sell their stakes in the various energy projects around the country. They would realise about 60 billion dollars instantly and they should ensure that the PIB is passed. If this is added to royalties and taxes, then the government can realize about 90 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in 2016. Even at that, the money is still too small.

And please Nigerians should understand that Nigeria is a poor country. Don't be fooled when you hear 90 billion dollars or 50 billion and then you think the money is enough to go round and solve all our problems. The budget of the Lagos state government alone should not be less than 5 trillion naira annually if we want to be serious about infrastructural and socioeconomic development.
The federal government budget of 4 trillion naira is not even enough to take care of all the federal universities in Nigeria talk much about taking care of the needs of 170 million people.

Nigerians ought to know about our problems better than we currently do.

Why bother replying that guy? Time will reply him best.
He has made many claims in the past, and only time and patience have put him in his place. Why cant he just wait for Buhari to at least become the president!

Actions please. Talk, talk and talk.

365 days will show us a glimpse of Buhari's administration.