Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Thread Summary:
https://twitter.com/IMRiskManager/status/1007611716862001152


(3 mins)

#GoodMorning #RandomRead

locodemy:
I sold oando bought zenith.I collected zenith dividend on friday invested it in japaul yesterday.If oando like let it get to 100,I dont care.zenith and japaul will also give me returns.I cant stop telling people what I have but I have stopped to bandish figures.

Zenith and Japaul really gave you "returns".....

MSCI MOVEMENT IN PORTFLIO FOR 20 JUNE 2018/GENERAL MARKET COMMENT

Market still dull, but the NAV position for the fund is still stable. Thus, the risk in the market seem not be too high. The fund seems to be indifferent to the market no new money coming to the portfolio.

Continue to look for opportunities to buy equities at the lowest price possible, using our proprietary techniques. I missed getting into Ikeja Hotel at my target price of about 2.75 as it moved too fast. No problem, there are still a lot of opportunities in the market. [b]Bought OANDO at NGN6.50.
[/b]
Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.

mendes911:


Zenith and Japaul really gave you "returns".....

No be only returns.

mendes911:

Zenith and Japaul really gave you "returns".....

''will give me returns'' ''really gave you returns''
Are we in the past? will.......future tense. gave........past tense.
GUY,THE RETURNS IS NOT NEGOTIABLE.

when are they implementing d 1k rule to the letter? am sending a mail to d exchange. I know those crooked CEO s must have lobbied for the halting. all d technical excuses is not good enough. let them invite experts from other exchange to show them how they calculate theirs. the are the kind of causes I expect our MKT activist to be fighting. not fighting neutral milost investor who was not part of the mess from the beginning.

DaV8King:
All these stones una dey throw sha....... I've sha just fully exited C&I............almost 25% after
charges

Sir, you really missed out on some additional cool profits o. C&I N2.18 this morning...... but all is well sha, it could have been the other way round.

Mcy56:

Sir, you really missed out on some additional cool profits o. C&I N2.18 this morning...... but all is well sha, it could have been the other way round.

onegentleguy:


I know my dear.
But unfortunately u can only get a guide from their Q3 and Q4 report.
...or perhaps run a rough check/comparison using their FY 2016 against that of Q2 2017.

On the Aureous Capital loan, I think they might most likely tour the route of raising bonds to refinance the loan.
...am of the opinion that it will serve to favour them more.

The problem with C&I is the dearth of available information that's just enough to draw up a better inference to make a sound investment decision.
But even at that, the current market price is at a way too much discount to make up for any shortfall.
...this is given room for the uncertainties surrounding the Aureous loan.
The stock is grossly undervalued from my end
...discounting for any worry/risk, I still have a Fair Price of N4.70, and so C&I remains a BUY for us !!

Disclosure: C&I LEASING constitutes a part of my investment portfolio.
Disclaimer: Not to be seen as any kind of recommendation. ...DD still advised as always pls.

onegentleguy:



One of the greatest mystery behind an OPPORTUNITY is that it will sometimes 'disguise itself' and hide behind an obstacle.
...hence given a much better scenerio an 'ugly look' and blowing it out of proportion.
Because great OPPORTUNITIES are usually not found in 'a totally safe and comfortable zone'.
The key however lies in ur ability to 'weigh' the difference between that which is REAL and what is virtual, and then 'seive out' the virtual from the REAL.
...then u can 'unlock' that obstacle and grap the OPPORTUNITY.
This is especially true of the stock market terrain particularly the 'NSE room'.

My advise: Try and read thru the recent YE and Q1 results of C&I leasing very well, then read thru this post again.

My verdict: Follow ur instinct.
NOTE: DD advised as always pls.

Herein were some past post when we advised folks to key into C & I LEASING. ...then Mr C & I was selling for btw N1.25 to N1.30.
...and so shall it be when the CAVERTON AIRLINE shall take off !!
...and so shall it be at the appropriate timing with all the 'REVELATION' coys !!
...for there swift movement shall be like that of a 'die in the wool thief at night'

For with some select coys, we have since decided 'to sleep with Mr TIME'
we keep watching. ...we are still here.

NOTE: Not to be interpreted as an investment advise. ...DD still advised as always pls.
My advise: Pls follow ur instinct.

It seems Japaul's fuel never finish o. Chai!
That Wema just dey fall hand anyhow, will keep hope up anyway since its one of the 'Revelation stocks'.

Signing of the budget would have bring back a little bull, but the story surrounding crude oil market will not permit it.

DangCem
- down early ! putting pressure on d index

Mcy56:

Sir, you really missed out on some additional cool profits o. C&I N2.18 this morning...... but all is well sha, it could have been the other way round.

It is well...........hopefully more will come #AirCaverton

Chibuking81:
Signing of the budget would have bring back a little bull, but the story surrounding crude oil market will not permit it.

Only Q2 left in d short term to throw in some relief

DaV8King:
It is well...........hopefully more will come #AirCaverton

Yeah! It's good to be on safer side. Caverton is a revelation stock, Mr. Time will sought this out at the right time.

swilo:
Is the fair price of Honeywell flourmills any where near N7.62 as predicted?

I seem to appreciate the analysis / figures aside the debt matter but I am tired of stagnancy or stagnation.

phemmie06:

Trw stockbroker

how?

honney flour could release their 2017 financial report any moment from now. it will take a magic for the price to reach N7.62 unless a general BULL. base on Q3 cp fairprice stand @ 3.50 could move to 4.50/5 or even lower that of Q3 fairprice depend on the result sha

currentprice:




how?

honney flour could release their 2017 financial report any moment from now. it will take a magic for the price to reach N7.62 unless a general BULL. base on Q3 cp fairprice stand @ 3.50 could move to 4.50/5 or even lower that of Q3 fairprice depend on the result sha

IF Honeywell Flour get to 7.62, the exchange will COLLAPSE.

I will be surprised if the Full year result sustain the Q3 result. Go to the shops and see there products sold at a discount to the competitors. That will show you that there is likely margin compression. The result ought to be out latest next week I believe.

Mcy56:

Yeah! It's good to be on safer side. Caverton is a revelation stock, Mr. Time will sought this out at the right time.

don't high ur expectation on caverton brov, caverton had a good 2017 year as shown in their audit result on this basis of which i pick/post this stock along with cileasing as a stock to watch. cileasing still stand good chance based on their Q1 but not caverton

though too early to judge base on caverton 2018 Q1, but if this is what they will repeat through out the year, caverton is a no go area for me.

from 2 july ,the market opens by 10 am on the dot. https://nairametrics.com/nse-to-implement-new-equity-market-restructuring-in-july-2018/

currentprice:




how?

honney flour could release their 2017 financial report any moment from now. it will take a magic for the price to reach N7.62 unless a general BULL. base on Q3 cp fairprice stand @ 3.50 could move to 4.50/5 or even lower that of Q3 fairprice depend on the result sha

Well done Sir. I always appreciate your fairprice analysis based on quarterly results/numbers.
#Eternacomestomind

currentprice:


don't high ur expectation on caverton brov, caverton had a good 2017 year as shown in their audit result on this basis of which i pick/post this stock along with cileasing as a stock to watch. cileasing still stand good chance based on their Q1 but not caverton

though too early to judge base on caverton 2018 Q1, but if this is what they will repeat through out the year, caverton is a no go area for me.

My currently,
...I hope ur not high on 33 by this time of the day? ...just joking.

But pls kindly check their Q1 result again.
CAVERTON grew their key indices with a spike accross all major lines.
...except for a very slight drop in their revenue, which was as a result of a loss in one of their non-weighty contractual line, Mr CAVERTON performed really well QoQ.
U may wish to read thru and compare their Q1 2017 result against that of Q1 2018.
I already did an extensive and comprehensive analysis on the coy here.

Both CAVERTON and C&I LEASING are grossly undervalued based on their Q1. ...however Mr C&I has a slight edge over CAVERTON.

Hint: As I stated then with their YE result, CAVERTON Q2 will also be explosive, as 2 of their recent contract disclosure will begin to be inculcated therein.

phemmie06:

Trw stockbroker

Yes o,

onegentleguy:
In the past I have made a few calls on the company CAVERTON OFFSHORE SUPPORT GROUP PLC, with several shouts on why the coy is in line to be one of the best, if not the best performing stock this year.
For the benefit of those who still haven't seen why, I shall make an attempt to give an in-depth analysis of the company drawing from their 2017 YE and Q1 2018 results.

A few highlights:

▪ The company has 4 subsidiary arm (energy, helicopter, integrated services and marine) which are 100% fully owned and which offers offshore support services to several IOCs (shell, lng, total, exxonmobil etc) with tech partners of the likes of AgustaWestland and VP.Ships. ...and services spanning from Offshore & onshore oil field logistics, Executive ground handling services, Vessel charter, Vessel Magt & ship stevedoring, Private charters and Third party maintenance.
▪ The company's maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) project, a world class aviation maintenance platform which would see caverton diversify its revenue base and shift focus from their sole reliance in oil & gas related deals is nearing completion. ...the project when completed, is expected to drive a remarkable turn and double the company's already current outstanding earnings.
▪ The subsidiary, Caverton helicopters has on the 1st of Aprill, 2018 begun a new 5 yr contract (with a possible further 2 yr extension) with the NNPC/CHEVRON joint venture to provide aviation services for the chevron escravos project. ...to this end, a total of 11 helicopters were purchased and provided for execution. Again highlighting the company's solid future earnings drive and profit sustainability.
▪ The company's subsidiary Caverton Marine has seen higher agency deals plus boat & maintenance contracts continuously been executed with the Lagos State Govt. ...with the Gov, A. Ambode recently commissioning 2 State acquired boats.

Looking at their financials;
▪ The company romped up their PAT by a whooping 328.2% to over N2.6b YoY. ...and very much in that line, Q1 has also seen an approx 36.6% growth in PAT to near N300m.
▪ Turnover also came in good with a 6.4% rise to N20.54b.
...though Q1 witnessed a slight drop in this line following a loss in one of their contractual line. However, the said contract line is of the least drive in turnover.
▪ A spur in retained earnings by near 54% YoY to well over N7.4b.
▪ The company also grew their EPS by an amazing 328.2% from 0.18k to 0.78k. ...Q1 has also seen EPS soar by 50% QoQ to 9k.
▪ CAVERTON has the potential to offset any short term liability without an iota of struggle as can be seen from its very healthy current ratio of 1.14x, which makes up for any risk from the high 85.4% and 61% debt to equity and gearing ratio respectively.
Again the company has the capacity to service its interest bearing liabilities as seen by its very strong interest coverage of 50.42x which is by miles above the industrial average of 5.72x. The company can even access more debt if required.
▪ The company is also showing a strong line of profitability with ROAE romping up so nicely from 4.6% to 16.6%. ...an alarming 257.5% increase. This clearly shows management effectiveness with using more debt in acquiring real value.
▪ Management also showed great efficiency as seen by their Equity turnover. ...while Equity multiplier, a ratio which weighs/compares how a coys asset can conveniently replicate equity, came in real good at 2.93. Put in a better way, CAVERTONs asset can make up for its equity by 2.93 times (multiplier). ...that to me, is damn remarkable !!

Looking at the company's shareholding structure, Chief Aderemi makanjuola (also the coys chairman) currently owns about 14.94% stake, while Molar vessels and Tesmania investment Ltd owns a 9.04% and 54.03% stake in that order.

With a double digit % growth in net asset and total asset, a price to book value of 0.56x and a book value of N4.80 as at Q1 2018, I have a Fair value of N5.70. ...which presents a very juicy 121.8% discount from last Fridays close of N2.57.
I therefore rate CAVERTON a strong BUY.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely result driven. ...however, it should not be interpreted to mean any kind of outright recommendation.
DD still advised as always pls.

My Verdict: Follow ur instinct.

Regards.

Herein was the analysis on Mr CAVERTON.
This Coy shall make some folks some really good ROI.
...it will make their soul beam with joy, and their heart glad sooner than later !!

We are just watching. ...we are still here.

currentprice:




how?

honney flour could release their 2017 financial report any moment from now. it will take a magic for the price to reach N7.62 unless a general BULL. base on Q3 cp fairprice stand @ 3.50 could move to 4.50/5 or even lower that of Q3 fairprice depend on the result sha

wanaj0:


IF Honeywell Flour get to 7.62, the exchange will COLLAPSE.

I will be surprised if the Full year result sustain the Q3 result. Go to the shops and see there products sold at a discount to the competitors. That will show you that there is likely margin compression. The result ought to be out latest next week I believe.

Thanks CP & Wanaj0.

Any info as to the status of their new factory in Ogun state? Have production started in earnest and can the new factory inclusion boost their bottom line like it did with Fidson?

onegentleguy:


My currently,
...I hope ur not high on 33 by this time of the day?

CAVERTON grew their key indices with a spike accross all major lines.
...except for a very slight drop in their revenue, which was as a result of a loss in one of their non-weighty contractual line, Mr CAVERTON performed really well QoQ.
U may wish to read thru and compare their Q1 2017 result against that of Q1 2018.
I already did an extensive and comprehensive analysis on the coy here.

Both CAVERTON and C&I LEASING are grossly undervalued based on their Q1. ...however Mr C&I has a slight edge over CAVERTON.

Hint: As I stated then with their YE result, CAVERTON Q2 will also be explosive, as most of their recent contracts will be imbibed therein.

my oga, u know i like to base my decision/prediction on what i see until Q2 comes with explosive numbers/reports then i will include it on my watch list..

though caverton increase earnings from 2017 Q1 6K to 2018 Q1 9k but what was the share price as at Q1 2017 N1 and as at Q1 2018 price of N2.90 so what do u expect? reason the price nose drive

currentprice:


my oga, u know i like to base my decision/prediction on what i see until Q2 comes with explosive numbers/reports then i will include it on my watch list..

though caverton increase earnings from 2017 Q1 6K to 2018 Q1 9k but what was the share price as at Q1 2017 N1 and as at Q1 2018 price of N2.90 so what do u expect? reason the price nose drive

So much is expected from this coy called CAVERTON. I want to benefit from the play before result comes out. By the time the results come out, there may be nothing left cos 2018 market is quite proactive.

currentprice:


my oga, u know i like to base my decision/prediction on what i see until Q2 comes with explosive numbers/reports then i will include it on my watch list..

though caverton increase earnings from 2017 Q1 6K to 2018 Q1 9k but what was the share price as at Q1 2017 N1 and as at Q1 2018 price of N2.90 so what do u expect? reason the price nose drive

Its Ok dear. ...but I'll strongly advise u to keep a close eye on it, so as to key in in ernest.
Btw, also keep a close watch on that health Coy. (hope u remember)

Regards.

onegentleguy:


Its Ok dear. ...but I'll strongly advise u to keep a close eye on it, so as to key in in ernest.
Btw, also keep a close watch on that health Coy. (hope u remember)

Regards.

i will do just that and i hope both comes with a surprise Q2

currentprice:


i will do just that and i hope both comes with a surprise Q2

...that 'health professor' can spring a lot of surprise !!

Btw, I hope my fellow TRANSCORPIANS are enjoying the gradual ride to the top.
...surely there's still so much more to come from Mr T !!

we are here.

Is fidelity planning interim dividend?
This market don turn maradona

Agbalowomeri:
Is fidelity planning interim dividend?
This market don turn maradona

...U are really very funny my dear !!

onegentleguy:



...that 'health professor' can spring a lot of surprise !!

Btw, I hope my fellow TRANSCORPIANS are enjoying the gradual ride to the top.
...surely there's still so much more to come from Mr T !!

we are here.

Tomorrow is Dangflour AGM. Hope the revelation would still come.