ositadima1:


I was a little disappointed. I was expecting a more technical explanation.

It seems like you are using Elliott waves or some variation of it. Can I say elliott waves invariably predicted the COVID outbreak. This is because if the wave hints at a major correction, something in the world bends to fulfill its prophecy.

I think Elliott waves should be banned. They work a lot like voodoo.

Desmond ELLIOT is always up to no good smh

RabbiDoracle:


Don't mind Peter. He is always like that. He finishes me on watsapp.

In January 2018, I warned that something big was coming. Got lots of criticism for it.

We bought around end of 2018 in tranches and into 2019 full time.

In January 2020, I still warned again that it is even bigger but don't know what it is. Still got lots of criticism for that.

We bought back in March 2020.

People made money.

The counter trend rally is always like that. People lose their heads.

Now I warn again.

This rally you see today cannot be compared to the January 2020 rally where brokers were calling clients to come and take loan. We warned it was a trap. The rest is history.

We are ending Wave 2 of what began in 2008. Wave 2 ends when oil crashes again.

I'm 60% cash - 40% equities. So all dividends shared so far, I got mine. But only warning that people should keep cash handy. It is coming.

Generational lows!

Should we keep the cash in naira or dollars. I know nse will tank seriously but it will be as a result of our internal doings....my opinion

ositadima1:


I may not have understood the message correctly. In his post, he pointed out that something big would happen in early 2020, but he was not sure what it would be.

COVID happened in late 2019 and early 2020, and it was the major reason why the market crashed. I may be wrong.

If COVID had not happened, the market would not have crashed in the same way. Did the Elliott wave cause COVID, or did COVID cause the Elliott waves to hint at the correction? Which one happened first?

There is no way you can be sure of what is coming. Events are dynamic and can take any form or shape.

I once looked at the international price of rice and live cattle and saw that it is going to rise alot using various indicators. Hence I warned that food prices are going to go higher and people should stack. I got criticism for that and people telling me that Buhari has rice pyramids.

The rest is history. Now we are battling increasing food costs.

Elliot wave can't cause covid. Covid can't cause Elliot wave. But it is an indicator that will explain to you how prices behave due to the interactions of all participants (FA, TA, sentiments etc)

Streetinvestor2:
Should we keep the cash in naira or dollars. I know nse will tank seriously but it will be as a result of our internal doings....my opinion

Keep the currency of investment of the country you invest in.

Naira in Nigeria
Euro in EU
USD in US


Try not to mix.

Moreover those who advise you to keep USD in Nigeria, have you tried changing N1B before using aboki? Then have it changed back when you want to reinvest?

If you have forex obligations, then you are obliged to keep forex in the country where you use naira. But if you don't have such obligations, how much volume can you change?

Bought chams at 24k average price n wanted to offload today but mistakenly bought at N41k.
Lucky that the whole units wasn't supplied.
I pray it turns out to be a blessing next Tuesday

onegentleguy:


Maybe you could interpret it as; Elliott wave signalled that something of negative consequence was likely to occur in the course of time.
...COVID was that which eventually played into it.

It is well

Why Una dey convolute unrelated matters? Wetin COVID-19 gat to do with TA

aremso:


Oga no mind my Rabbi Joor hold it is going to N35. Oracle has said his own pls don't follow him follow your mind. But one thing is certain he told me of 3 US stocks one was selling for $12 and he said is coming down to $2 as I type is selling for $2.7, another one he said it will get to $0.50 when it was selling for around $8 the stock hit $0.50 and back to $3 he told me to buy another one I bought at 1.70 that it will move the stock got to $4 wit quarterly dividend received. So I respect his view alot. Am warming up for the US stock he has given me the entry price and once it got to that level I go into that stock fully. Just follow your mind as your stocks can do N35 naira in a short time.

Bros, which group be this biko...... The kind haircut wey I received from both $PLTR and $IDEX for that side no be here oh.

Agbalowomeri:


Why Una dey convolute unrelated matters? Wetin COVID-19 gat to do with TA

I want to believe that the world's money bags get to know some information before they come to public domain.
If the above statement is correct, it will reflect on TA based on the action they take.

Agbalowomeri:


Why Una dey convolute unrelated matters? Wetin COVID-19 gat to do with TA

Apparently you didn't get the drift.

It is well

IHelp:


I want to believe that the world's money bags get to know some information before they come to public domain.
If the above statement is correct, it will reflect on TA based on the action they take.

You just might be right you know!

Regards

Oracle may be right when he said that this was not a bull market. If we compute the annual returns of the ASI, we see that it did 50% in 2020, 6% in 2021, and 20% in 2022.

For the first five months of 2023, it has only done 3.34%. All this full bid we have been seeing have not contributed much to the all share index.

Alternatively, we can argue that the heavy stocks remained relatively unchanged. These include the likes of dangcem, Nestle, Airtelafri, etc.

samsonline:
NAHCO has landed and very big too.

onegentleguy:
"The Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading (NBET) and Transcorp Power the parent company of TransAfam Power Plant Ltd, yesterday signed a power purchase agreement for the 726 megawatts (MW) TransAfam Power Plant Ltd located in Okoloma, Rivers State.

Subsequently, NBET got regulatory approvals from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP), Ministry of Justice, as well as presidential approval for the takeover..."

https://dailytrust.com/nbet-transcorp-sign-726mw-power-purchasing-pact/

This doesn't sound like positive news for TRANSCORP to me.......or maybe I interpreted it wrongly...🤔

chimex38:
If OandO is delisting , hence going private,
why are there still trading on the floor..
Educate me abeg
I

Because the delisting process is still ongoing....
Until it's completely finalized, exit-price paid to all shareholders, delisting process wrapped up, placed on trading suspension and consequently removed from EQUITY section of NSE/NGX......It will still be trading on the floor.

Currently, the Court has adjourned the hearing case to October 2023.......because the case is still in court (btw OANDO and aggrieved shareholders).

ositadima1:


Oracle may be right when he said that this was not a bull market. If we compute the annual returns of the ASI, we see that it did 50% in 2020, 6% in 2021, and 20% in 2022.

For the first five months of 2023, it has only done 3.34%. All this full bid we have been seeing have not contributed much to the all share index.

Alternatively, we can argue that the heavy stocks remained relatively unchanged. These include the likes of dangcem, Nestle, Airtelafri, etc.

You do not need to be an Oracle before you expect a volatility.
Volatility is an essential organ of the market.
Cash at hand is meant for neutralizing the effects of volatility.
Do not run away when there is blood on no 2 to 4 customs Street Lagos, even, if the blood is yours.
It is extremely difficult to time the market and predict accurately when the next blood is going to flow at Customs Street Lagos.
The market is independent of the economy of Nigeria. During the moderate oil boom (2017 to 2018) it didn't impact the market much.
Despite the pandemic of 2020 to 2022, the market did not shed much blood.
Let us look at the last blood in Guiness(2020 -2021), it took less than 12 months to recover from the low of N13 to band N17. It started insidiously, then recovered gradually. This is the kind of isolated blood people should look out for and punch at any time "t"
Use your cash to buy the blood, even if the blood is your.
The expectation that the Naira will recover from the sledge hammer of the US$ is a wishful thinking. Be it global market crash or oil boom. Nigeria government do not manufacture dollar, the US treasury keeps increasing the interest rate/s in order to tackle inflation in the US, each time the interest rate increase/s, the CBN and other Reserved Banks pay more money to access the dollar. Nigeria is not the only country that faces this dilemma.
On this, saving moderate cash in forex is not a Bad idea.
A careful study of Central Bank activities show the (band) target exchange rate is heading towards N700 - N1000 /$.
This has nothing to do with Dangote Refinery or imminent deregulation of the down stream sector.
One may need to ignore the economy and focus on individual companies fundamental to become a value investor.
The market will always recover faster than we anticipate regardless of global economy and financial crisis.
At the last statistics, 60% of trading on Nigeria exchange in the last 6 months was done by local investors.
With the popularity which the Nigeria exchange is currently enjoying, we might see 70% trading by local investors in the foreseeable future.
The take home point is Buy or at least Hold when there is blood on No 2 to 4 Customs Street, Lagos.
Never run away from the market. Time is the best friend of Mr Market.

Mfunkynation:
$0.11 is how much in Nigerian currency?

Think what Ecobank is paying is around 0.50k
Result not so fantastic.

yMcy56:

This doesn't sound like positive news for TRANSCORP to me.......or maybe I interpreted it wrongly...🤔

The publication is confusing but this little quote might shed more light: Also speaking, the Chairman of TransAfam Power, Stanley Lawson, said the agreement was instrumental to the company as a commitment that government would pay for the power they generated and transmitted to the national grid, while pledging the company’s commitment to drive power generation in the country
It might be positive in the sense that goverment will pay for the electricity generated by the transcorp plant, it might also be negative in the sense that Nigerian government sabi owe money.

Mankindman:


You do not need to be an Oracle before you expect a volatility.
Volatility is an essential organ of the market.
Cash at hand is meant for neutralizing the effects of volatility.
Do not run away when there is blood on no 2 to 4 customs Street Lagos, even, if the blood is yours.
It is extremely difficult to time the market and predict accurately when the next blood is going to flow at Customs Street Lagos.
The market is independent of the economy of Nigeria. During the moderate oil boom (2017 to 2018) it didn't impact the market much.
Despite the pandemic of 2020 to 2022, the market did not shed much blood.
Let us look at the last blood in Guiness(2020 -2021), it took less than 12 months to recover from the low of N13 to band N17. It started insidiously, then recovered gradually. This is the kind of isolated blood people should look out for and punch at any time "t"
Use your cash to buy the blood, even if the blood is your.
The expectation that the Naira will recover from the sledge hammer of the US$ is a wishful thinking. Be it global market crash or oil boom. Nigeria government do not manufacture dollar, the US treasury keeps increasing the interest rate/s in order to tackle inflation in the US, each time the interest rate increase/s, the CBN and other Reserved Banks pay more money to access the dollar. Nigeria is not the only country that faces this dilemma.
On this, saving moderate cash in forex is not a Bad idea.
A careful study of Central Bank activities show the (band) target exchange rate is heading towards N700 - N1000 /$.
This has nothing to do with Dangote Refinery or imminent deregulation of the down stream sector.
One may need to ignore the economy and focus on individual companies fundamental to become a value investor.
The market will always recover faster than we anticipate regardless of global economy and financial crisis.
At the last statistics, 60% of trading on Nigeria exchange in the last 6 months was done by local investors.
With the popularity which the Nigeria exchange is currently enjoying, we might see 70% trading by local investors in the foreseeable future.
The take home point is Buy or at least Hold when there is blood on No 2 to 4 Customs Street, Lagos.
Never run away from the market. Time is the best friend of Mr Market.

You expressed a lot of wisdom in your writeup. I have also reflected on Oracle's posts and Pa Ema's, among others.

One should at least apportion their assets to cash (or equivalents), trading, and value investing (especially at a great discount). Never go all in on any one of them at any given time.

I can talk more, but I have a headache from my deep reflections.

Mpeace:
The publication is confusing but this little quote might shed more light: Also speaking, the Chairman of TransAfam Power, Stanley Lawson, said the agreement was instrumental to the company as a commitment that government would pay for the power they generated and transmitted to the national grid, while pledging the company’s commitment to drive power generation in the country
It might be positive in the sense that government will pay for the electricity generated by the transcorp plant, it might also be negative in the sense that Nigerian government sabi owe money.

It is a POSITIVE development for TRANSCORP.

I don't really have much time to put out a lengthy post now, but just know that a few great reforms will play out in that sector which the coy is primed to benefit from.

TRANSCORP might visit the 5th boulevard this year.

CAVEAT: NOT an investment advice. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

Mankindman:


You do not need to be an Oracle before you expect a volatility.
Volatility is an essential organ of the market.
Cash at hand is meant for neutralizing the effects of volatility.
Do not run away when there is blood on no 2 to 4 customs Street Lagos, even, if the blood is yours.
It is extremely difficult to time the market and predict accurately when the next blood is going to flow at Customs Street Lagos.
The market is independent of the economy of Nigeria. During the moderate oil boom (2017 to 2018) it didn't impact the market much.
Despite the pandemic of 2020 to 2022, the market did not shed much blood.
Let us look at the last blood in Guiness(2020 -2021), it took less than 12 months to recover from the low of N13 to band N17. It started insidiously, then recovered gradually. This is the kind of isolated blood people should look out for and punch at any time "t"
Use your cash to buy the blood, even if the blood is your.
The expectation that the Naira will recover from the sledge hammer of the US$ is a wishful thinking. Be it global market crash or oil boom. Nigeria government do not manufacture dollar, the US treasury keeps increasing the interest rate/s in order to tackle inflation in the US, each time the interest rate increase/s, the CBN and other Reserved Banks pay more money to access the dollar. Nigeria is not the only country that faces this dilemma.
On this, saving moderate cash in forex is not a Bad idea.
A careful study of Central Bank activities show the (band) target exchange rate is heading towards N700 - N1000 /$.
This has nothing to do with Dangote Refinery or imminent deregulation of the down stream sector.
One may need to ignore the economy and focus on individual companies fundamental to become a value investor.
The market will always recover faster than we anticipate regardless of global economy and financial crisis.
At the last statistics, 60% of trading on Nigeria exchange in the last 6 months was done by local investors.
With the popularity which the Nigeria exchange is currently enjoying, we might see 70% trading by local investors in the foreseeable future.
The take home point is Buy or at least Hold when there is blood on No 2 to 4 Customs Street, Lagos.
Never run away from the market. Time is the best friend of Mr Market.

You are knowledgeable, smart and wise. Triple twale for you



Very few investors combine the three features of knowledge, smartness and wisdom.


Please always stop over to share your knowledge and wisdom with us.


God bless us all, more greens to our portfolios and more predictable cash flow from our investments.

emmanuelewumi:




You are knowledgeable, smart and wise. Triple twale for you



Very few investors combine the three features of knowledge, smartness and wisdom.


Please always stop over to share your knowledge and wisdom with us.


God bless us all, more greens to our portfolios and more predictable cash flow from our investments.

You will always know an old wine in the game

yMcy56:

Think what Ecobank is paying is around 0.50k
Result not so fantastic.

For ETI, FA doesn't look encouraging. ...@ CMP and based on the coys last financial print, intrinsic value leaves a slngle digit % peg btw RRM and inherent risk using a conservative estimate.
...now that's not too nice.

Elsewhere, TA also doesn't look good.
...lots of key indicators seem to suggest that price could drop from current peg.
- Appears overbought on key time-frames with SRSI, OBV and ADL supportive of that stance.
- Yesterdays AWP and eventual close was below the coys 15D MA and that with an AMtD vol, suggesting that the stock might witness increasing selling pressure.
- Price still trading below the T-line on key time-frames (DWM) and drifted from the cloud indicative of bear grip on the coy. (see BBP, DMI...)

Only slight positive is that it isn't a sector wide sentiment but specific to the stock (FA possibly lending a hand), so perhaps price may not drop that much from here.
It could even push up in price but ETI is not a coy to consider now if one is seeking for TRUE value. ...well, for now.
I see <9 as a good zone to snipe but then again, there are better coys out there.

JAIZ and UNITY are the only other 2 banking names with similar but less notable negative sentiment, but the former could ...
UNITY is a no no for me, but JAIZ is a better option if one can do their homework well. (trade set-up in view)


There are better coys with healthy/sound FA and quite promising TA. ...quite a No of them looking really bullish.

It is well

yMcy56:

Because the delisting process is still ongoing....
Until it's completely finalized, exit-price paid to all shareholders, delisting process wrapped up, placed on trading suspension and consequently removed from EQUITY section of NSE/NGX......It will still be trading on the floor.

Currently, the Court has adjourned the hearing case to October 2023.......because the case is still in court (btw OANDO and aggrieved shareholders).

OK. I now understand..
Thank you very very much for taking the time..
....as always in this forum

ositadima1:


You expressed a lot of wisdom in your writeup. I have also reflected on Oracle's posts and Pa Ema's, among others.

One should at least apportion their assets to cash (or equivalents), trading, and value investing (especially at a great discount). Never go all in on any one of them at any given time.

I can talk more, but I have a headache from my deep reflections.

You seem green in this field and want to learn. We have been investing since 2006. We saw the euphoria of 2006 till March 2008. Many people lost money. I lost some too especially on IPOs, PO but I had a good paying job that made me not bother about the loss.

People made huge money pumping NSE index in 2008 to 66,200 or so. 2008 was a wave 5 of the bullish trend that started in September1999 when NSE index was at 4,900. From that time till 2008, NSE index rose 1,250%.

Once you have a parabolic rise as seen between 2006 to 2008 on NSE INDEX chart, it is usually followed by a sharp decline/corrections. For such corrections, you should hardly invest in them. You should trade them because they are bound to reverse.

And since 2008 till date, NSE index has not touched the 66,200 made then.

In every of such correction, the price makes ABC moves using Elliot Wave. Wave A ended around 2012 when NSE index was at 19,400 during Sanusi Lamido saga. Wave B should go high enough but the peaks seen in 2014 and 2018 doesn't match the specifications described in ELLIOT wave. And the trough of 2018 wave did not clear Wave A (made in 2012).

Then comes the rise after pandemic. The peak hit almost 56,000 in 2023 which correctly describes a Wave B based on the calculations. And coincidentally as could been seen today, all the negative news started coming out around the world about Moody downgrade of Nigerian banks, German recession, crude oil price drop, US defaults, US banking crisis, Chinese downgrade of US AAA ratings, virus resurgence in China, deadly fungi in US and Mexico blah blah blah.

This tells one that we still have a downtrend to go. Wave C needs to clear 2012 low of 19,400. Hence I had to estimate a drop to 18,900 to have a completion of the correction that started in 2008.

If this dares happen, then one can say where the next wave will take us to. We wait to see.

Note: Wave C is usually vicious just like the type we saw in 2020.

"It is not the hunter who spends the most time in the forest that catches the biggest kill."

RabbiDoracle:


Don't mind Peter. He is always like that. He finishes me on watsapp.

In January 2018, I warned that something big was coming. Got lots of criticism for it.

We bought around end of 2018 in tranches and into 2019 full time.

In January 2020, I still warned again that it is even bigger but don't know what it is. Still got lots of criticism for that.

We bought back in March 2020.

People made money.

The counter trend rally is always like that. People lose their heads.

Now I warn again.

This rally you see today cannot be compared to the January 2020 rally where brokers were calling clients to come and take loan. We warned it was a trap. The rest is history.

We are ending Wave 2 of what began in 2008. Wave 2 ends when oil crashes again.

I'm 60% cash - 40% equities. So all dividends shared so far, I got mine. But only warning that people should keep cash handy. It is coming.

Generational lows!

Thanks a lot for this info. I was considering buying some stocks but I will save the money for now instead.

I hardly use Elliot wave to make analysis after learning it from a user called Waves in Stock Market Nigeria back in those days in 2010. There are enough easier to use tools available.

Only using it to debunk the assertion that we are in a Wave 5 move as suggested by people here.

In a Wave 5 move, you wake you and the market is 10% full bid till market closes. Everyday for weeks.

In 2007 to 2008, that was the norm then.

Look around and you see huge number of stocks not even responding to moves while few sectors rise.

In a Wave 5 move, all insurance stocks will be trading above N5 by now. ZENITH should be at N120 in a Wave 5 move. And where are we today? Abegi.

Remember BAICO, IEI, Guinea ins?

Vibes from the past : 27th March 2008 pricelist

ETI got to a high of 260 then.

Pandemic : N3.90

Oga Oracle I do not agree with your descriptions of the Elliott Waves.
But mouth dey pain me. I no fit talk

Agbalowomeri:
Oga Oracle I do not agree with your descriptions of the Elliott Waves.
But mouth dey pain me. I no fit talk

Describe yours and let's brainstorm.

First read the rules on the wave count.

emmanuelewumi:




Talk to your bank or Stockbroker, if you have acceptable collateral your request will be approved within 4 to 6 hours

please is it possible to borrow 5m from a bank without collateral for an agricultural startup (cassava farming) to be repaid in 6 years?

RabbiDoracle:
Vibes from the past : 27th March 2008 pricelist

ETI got to a high of 260 then.

Pandemic : N3.90

Back in those days in 2006 to 2008. There was a lot of manipulation of share prices especially in the banking sector, by the directors. The story of peter ololo still in our minds.

Thazard:
please is it possible to borrow 5m from a bank without collateral for an agricultural startup (cassava farming) to be repaid in 6 years?

Your family member or a friend can do that for you. Not a corporate body. You no dey learn this STORM and WAVE going on? Please let the Ogas keep it coming.