I support loco 100%. You can't be talking of rainfall when the likes of Otedola are packing Dangote shares with bullion VAN. Pull backs here and there, yes. But market crash, NO.

chibaby1985:


Not possible

If UBA with projected eps of over N16 for the year fail to pay up to N3 as dividend for the year then wahala go dey.

Same applies to other some banks

When I was investing in Japaul at below 30kobo, my spirit was telling me, loco you will sell your japaul up to 50m in the future.It didn't reach 2 years, the dream became true.
It wasn't easy for me then.People were saying all sorts of negative things about Japaul but I kept mute doing my thing.Those people have gone to hiding today.

Invest in champions with 20m naira today and sell at 200m in future.This life whatever you believe must come to you.

This is why my logo is Do your best and leave the rest for God

See Transcorp for example, its kind of rapid rise in price would usually followed by several days of full offer in the past. But this time around, it is surprising that not a single day of full offer for Transcorp after it rose rapidly from 6 to 19

Truth is we are in uncharted territory. Unusual things are happening in NGX

If you are new and afraid but want to invest in shares, wait for pullback and then after, look for those companies where Alhaji and his men are now, join them with your peanut and go and sleep.Your money will be protected but you may not see much growth because they have already push to where they want and working on the stability.You can as well follow them to pocket anual dividend as they like getting dividend of their investments.

Loco

Mpeace:
If UBA with projected eps of over N16 for the year fail to pay up to N3 as dividend for the year then wahala go dey.

Same applies to other some banks

We are watching

Locotrader:
When I was investing in Japaul at below 30kobo, my spirit was telling me, loco you will sell your japaul up to 50m in the future.It didn't reach 2 years, the dream became true.
It wasn't easy for me then.People were saying all sorts of negative things about Japaul but I kept mute doing my thing.Those people have gone to hiding today.

Invest in champions with 20m naira today and sell at 200m in future.This life whatever you believe must come to you.

This is why my logo is Do your best and leave the rest for God

Champion is a good investment for mid to long-term. But me I've chosen to wine and dine with Alhaji in DF, also for mid to long-term

The economy will start to stabilize by midday of this year.Two things will be the catalyst. The Dan refinery even if it doesn't bring about reduction in the price of fuel.It will definitely reduce forex needs of the country. Then the oil production will definitely increase because locals are getting involved. Naija people sabi the language his fellow naija man speaks. Naija man no go take some kind rubbish from him fellow man after him don invest put.The oil theft go reduce and restiveness even if it requires making some men disappear or agreements reached.The people stealing the oil are not invisible

Reasonable Consumer goods(especially stocks yet to catch the bull) are somewhat of a defensive stock in this era of unknown. Transcorp holdings should be down to 40% while you stash that loot in fixed income while waiting for pull-back or crash to launch some dangerous counter attack .

If it retreats you keep buying more . Some Spare change to follow dangote.

At this point investor moves...

Streetinvestor2:
The economy will start to stabilize by midday of this year.Two things will be the catalyst. The Dan refinery even if it doesn't bring about reduction in the price of fuel.It will definitely reduce forex needs of the country. Then the oil production will definitely increase because locals are getting involved. Naija people sabi the language his fellow naija man speaks. Naija man no go take some kind rubbish from him fellow man after him don invest put.The oil theft go reduce and restiveness even if it requires making some men disappear or agreements reached.The people stealing the oil are not invisible

During Pmb era, everyone was pessimistic and market received the beating.
Now Tinubu is in charge,at least 70% of Nigerians are optimistic about the economy, he has been busy wooing investors into the country,the stock market is receiving the impact and will continue.

The manifestations of what we are saying

https://thenationonlineng.net/in-eight-months-of-tinubu-administration-nigerias-stock-market-leads-the-world-by-bayo-onanuga/

jaybee3:





I hope you listened @kenmaro

My brother, I didn't listen oo. I sold off and the train left me behind. Though it hurts but it's one of those lessons of life like he said. You lose in some areas and gain in others. Thanks for your concern 🙏

Almost everyone here has at one time or the other lost some amount of money in a particular stock they bought in the past. Right?
Such losses happen either because they bought into a dying company that eventually folded up and delisted from this market, or because they bought a falling Knife.

1. But have you really lost money in this stock market?
2. How much of your money have you invested totally since you entered the stock market?
3. How much money have you lost totally in the stock market?
4. Also, how much money have you gained totally in the stock market, including money you have gained from dividends and price increases in other stocks?

Now do the mathematics.


Think about it very very slowly

Have you really lost even a kobo or penny in the stock market?

Food for weekend thought...

essentialone:
Almost everyone here has at one time or the other lost some amount of money in a particular stock they bought in the past. Right?
Such losses happen either because they bought into a dying company that eventually folded up and delisted from this market, or because they bought a falling Knife.

1. But have you really lost money in this stock market?
2. How much of your money have you invested totally since you entered the stock market?
3. How much money have you lost totally in the stock market?
4. Also, how much money have you gained totally in the stock market, including money you have gained from dividends and price increases in other stocks?

Now do the mathematics.


Think about it very very slowly

Have you really lost even a kobo or penny in the stock market?

Food for weekend thought...

Sincerely speaking on a general view... Personally I've lost nothing in this market... This is when I do my mathematics very well... Nothing lost just schools was paid in 2006-2008... Some of those stocks have even giving me fortunes while trading them these years... I don't do jijo on fundamentally healthy stocks...

Take for example my Access that I bought at 14 naira peak price is still with the broking firm I bought it till date which I don't even have access to

Transcorp, UBA, my bank (fbn) etc are all intact... I really sell dividends stocks because at at all they pay me something no matter how little... I gamble with penny stocks lot anyways

I want to genuinely thank Mr. Emma, Agba, bullbear, intendy and Willie for the love over the years... I've personally gained from their wealth of experience in diversification into other markets especially Mr Emma... He has always been selfless... A rare gift to this forum

Respect to our oga's on this forum!
The story of the monkey trader is evergreen!
An interesting sequel to the story is that it's possible that the trader later sent his apprentice to begin banana business in the village that he himself had flooded with monkeys. He was a great businessman as he did the planning, marketing, relationship building and trade execution all by himself. Monkeys and perishable bananas will be offloaded when the time comes, but villagers who trade cages might not need to fret.

Think of where you belong in this story while the bull run lasts.

If UBA bought at N6-N9 pays N3-N3.50 as annual dividends for three years and even beyond, what more would an investor seek? If the same UBA has returned 300% in price appreciation, would a trader be ungrateful?
No gree for anybody to buy gold from you in exchange for copper. Success in stocks investing is not only by being a master of hot stocks or by partaking in every lone ten bagger run.

Melcapital:
If UBA bought at N6-N9 pays N3-N3.50 as annual dividends for three years and even beyond, what more would an investor seek? If the same UBA has returned 300% in price appreciation, would a trader be ungrateful?
No gree for anybody to buy gold from you in exchange for copper. Success in stocks investing is not only by being a master of hot stocks or by partaking in every lone ten bagger run.

Wisdom

Streetinvestor2:
The economy will start to stabilize by midday of this year.Two things will be the catalyst. The Dan refinery even if it doesn't bring about reduction in the price of fuel.It will definitely reduce forex needs of the country. Then the oil production will definitely increase because locals are getting involved. Naija people sabi the language his fellow naija man speaks. Naija man no go take some kind rubbish from him fellow man after him don invest put.The oil theft go reduce and restiveness even if it requires making some men disappear or agreements reached.The people stealing the oil are not invisible

the economy will stabilize next year, infact Nigerians will be shocked at how things will turn around and I have positioned myself for 2nd quarter 2025.

Melcapital:
If UBA bought at N6-N9 pays N3-N3.50 as annual dividends for three years and even beyond, what more would an investor seek? If the same UBA has returned 300% in price appreciation, would a trader be ungrateful?
No gree for anybody to buy gold from you in exchange for copper. Success in stocks investing is not only by being a master of hot stocks or by partaking in every lone ten bagger run.

That is a yield on cost of 50% to 58%, the plan is to get a minimum yield to cost of 30% after trading and investing in a stock for 10 years.

emmanuelewumi:




That is a yield on cost of 50% to 58%, the plan is to get a minimum yield to cost of 30% after trading and investing in a stock for 10 years.

I just love your financial prudence

Bizibi:
the economy will stabilize next year, infact Nigerians will be shocked at how things will turn around and I have positioned myself for 2nd quarter 2025.

You mean it?

chibaby1985:


Sincerely speaking on a general view... Personally I've lost nothing in this market... This is when I do my mathematics very well... Nothing lost just schools was paid in 2006-2008... Some of those stocks have even giving me fortunes while trading them these years... I don't do jijo or fundamentally healthy stocks...

Take for example my Access that I bought at 14 naira peak price is still with the broking firm I bought it till date which I don't even have access to

Transcorp, UBA, my bank (fbn) etc are all intact... I really sell dividends stocks because at at all they pay me something no matter how little... I gamble with penny stocks lot anyways

I want to genuinely thank Mr. Emma, Agba, bullbear, intendy and Willie for the love over the years... I've personally gained from their wealth of experience in diversification into other markets especially Mr Emma... He has always been selfless... A rare gift to this forum

Na only me love you o

Melcapital:
If UBA bought at N6-N9 pays N3-N3.50 as annual dividends for three years and even beyond, what more would an investor seek? If the same UBA has returned 300% in price appreciation, would a trader be ungrateful?
No gree for anybody to buy gold from you in exchange for copper. Success in stocks investing is not only by being a master of hot stocks or by partaking in every lone ten bagger run.

You bought a stock like UCAP 4 years ago. Last year it returned 57.6% in dividends. The stock kept moving up. Now you look at its current value and see that if you liquidate now and invest in government bonds at 14 to 13%, you stand to get about 128% annually(on initial stock investment).

You want to do it, but you consider that 13% is fixed and once you are invested, neither your capital nor dividends will appreciate (or fall). However, the dividends have no ceiling and if the stock has moved this far, it would likely outperform the fixed returns over time.

You also realize that you may never be able to buy that stock at that initial price again. What would you do?

CC Pa Emma, Mcy56, Agba

ositadima1:


You bought a stock like UCAP 4 years ago. Last year it returned 57.6% in dividends. The stock kept moving up. Now you look at its current value and see that if you liquidate now and invest in government bonds at 14 to 13%, you stand to get about 128% annually(on initial stock investment).

You want to do it, but you consider that 13% is fixed and once you are invested, neither your capital nor dividends will appreciate (or fall). However, the dividends have no ceiling and if the stock has moved this far, it would likely outperform the fixed returns over time.

You also realize that you may never be able to buy that stock at that initial price again. What would you do?

CC Pa Emma, Mcy56, Agba

You rebalance your portfolio, the market can't continue to rise forever, a sound stock delivery good financial performance can be stagnant for years or might even depreciate.


Some Personal Finance experts believe we should subtract our age from 120 whatever we get is what we should have in equities. Eg a 30 years investor will have 90% in equities while a 70 years investor will have 50% in equities.

We should be able to strike a balance between safety and hope.

I will advise the guy to sell some of his UCAP shares probably about half because there is a high probability that UCAP will drop to N20 and below after dividend declaration. Doubt if the company can pay a dividend of N2.00, it paid N1.50k last year


My opinion though

emmanuelewumi:




You rebalance your portfolio, the market can't continue to rise forever, a sound stock delivery good financial performance can be stagnant for years or might even depreciate.


Some Personal Finance experts believe we should subtract our age from 120 whatever we get is what we should have in equities. Eg a 30 years investor will have 90% in equities while a 70 years investor will have 50% in equities.

We should be able to strike a balance between safety and hope.

I will advise the guy to sell some of his UCAP shares probably about half because there is a high probability that UCAP will drop to N20 and below after dividend declaration. Doubt if the company can pay a dividend of N2.00, it paid N1.50k last year


My opinion though

UCAP's key business segments:

Investment Banking: Assists companies and governments in raising capital through IPO underwriting, debt issuance, M&A advisory, and restructuring services.

Portfolio Management: Manages investment portfolios for clients by providing discretionary management, non-discretionary advice, asset allocation, and performance reporting.

Securities Trading: Facilitates securities trading for clients through brokerage services, market research, and trade execution.

Trusteeship Services: Acts as a neutral third party in financial transactions by providing trust administration, escrow services, and registrar services. -- Copied

In the last 9 months, 1.6 trillion naira was exchanged on the NGX. Assuming UCAP's brokerage business segment has a 5% market share and charges 1.5% in fees, that would equate to a substantial 1.2 billion naira in revenue from just one business section.

Based on my layman's reasoning, I feel a share price of 2 naira or more could be possible for UCAP.

ositadima1:


You bought a stock like UCAP 4 years ago. Last year it returned 57.6% in dividends. The stock kept moving up. Now you look at its current value and see that if you liquidate now and invest in government bonds at 14 to 13%, you stand to get about 128% annually(on initial stock investment).

You want to do it, but you consider that 13% is fixed and once you are invested, neither your capital nor dividends will appreciate (or fall). However, the dividends have no ceiling and if the stock has moved this far, it would likely outperform the fixed returns over time.

You also realize that you may never be able to buy that stock at that initial price again. What would you do?

CC Pa Emma, Mcy56, Agba

Bear will come
You could still get UCAP at half price

ositadima1:


UCAP's key business segments:

Investment Banking: Assists companies and governments in raising capital through IPO underwriting, debt issuance, M&A advisory, and restructuring services.

Portfolio Management: Manages investment portfolios for clients by providing discretionary management, non-discretionary advice, asset allocation, and performance reporting.

Securities Trading: Facilitates securities trading for clients through brokerage services, market research, and trade execution.

Trusteeship Services: Acts as a neutral third party in financial transactions by providing trust administration, escrow services, and registrar services. -- Copied

In the last 9 months, 1.6 trillion naira was exchanged on the NGX. Assuming UCAP's brokerage business segment has a 5% market share and charges 1.5% in fees, that would equate to a substantial 1.2 billion naira in revenue from just one business section.

Based on my layman's reasoning, I feel a share price of 2 naira or more could be possible for UCAP.

A share of 2 naira or dividend of N2.

That won't stop UCAP from getting to N20 by the second quarter

emmanuelewumi:



A share of 2 naira or dividend of N2.

That won't stop UCAP from getting to N20 by the second quarter

I agree with you that the share price may drop later in the year, especially if better investment alternatives become available. An 8% dividend yield (2/23.9) may not be enough of an incentive for some investors.

Regarding whether 2 naira is possible, if we check UCAP's 2022 income statement, it lost 6 billion in credit losses, compared to just 450 million in 2021. I doubt the losses will be as high in 2023, and I feel 2023 was a better year overall than 2022.

So a share price of 2 naira or even higher seems possible.

Still, 2 naira would bring the dividend yield to 77%, which is well below the 128% from fixed income. Maybe that "person" will consider selling half their shares, as you suggested.

Agbalowomeri:


Bear will come
You could still get UCAP at half price

I understand your perspective - once the optimists have finished buying, only pessimists and neutral investors will be left holding the inflated prices. At that point, prices will start correcting.

However, there are some issues with this idea: we don't know the extent of the optimists' resources, or why they have driven prices up so drastically. We also can't predict how much they will let prices correct before stabilizing again.

You speak with conviction based on the charts, just as Oga Rabbi was certain the US economy would crash based on his bond market analysis. Yet one and a half years later, the US is still doing well.

In OGG voice, the market has a way of humbling even the most confident experts. Me I don humble teh teh.

ositadima1:



I agree with you that the share price may drop later in the year, especially if better investment alternatives become available. An 8% dividend yield (2/23.9) may not be enough of an incentive for some investors.

Regarding whether 2 naira is possible, if we check UCAP's 2022 income statement, it lost 6 billion in credit losses, compared to just 450 million in 2021. I doubt the losses will be as high in 2023, and I feel 2023 was a better year overall than 2022.

So a share price of 2 naira or even higher seems possible.

Still, 2 naira would bring the dividend yield to 77%, which is well below the 128% from fixed income. Maybe that "person" will consider selling half their shares, as you suggested.

It will bring the yield on cost to 77% and dividend yield to less than 10%.

Yield on cost is based on the average cost price of the stock, dividend yield is based on the current market.