₦airaland Forum

sarutobie: It should have sunk into your head by now that nobody is taking you serious..try another tactics...meanwhile keep breathing the fresh air!

chaloner: Please if u are not happy better go and sleep or as well enjoy ur fight in dream dnt u ever come here to make dis silly noise again....... How many so priority work do ur past government did? Its high time some pple like this start receiving slap from each member of nairaland cos wat u re trying to tell us is dat our president can't see. Be careful.

Let's assume we are trying to finance a metro line in a large, developing but fictitious capital city and we have prepared estimates for the number of passengers expected to use the system and the cost of building the system. Suppose we have a line which is mostly elevated on concrete structures and runs for 15 kms across the city. It might cost US$ 50 million a kilometre including trains and all equipment necessary to run the line - power, signalling control, communications, fare collection, a maintenance depot, stations and operating offices. It could add up to US$ 750 million. Let's assume we have borrowed the money to pay for it and we have got to pay interest at 10% per annum. That's US$ 75 million a year in interest to pay - at least for the first few years.

To cover the interest payments we need to sell tickets - lots of them. Well, we have a large, populated city in a rapidly developing country and our consultants have done detailed traffic surveys. They tell us we can expect an average of 150,000 passenger trips a day. This is equivalent to a medium-sized metro or light rail system and would show a peak hour flow in the peak direction of about 18,000 - 20,000 passengers.

Because this is public transit and we want to attract passengers and we want to keep them from polluting the city with their cars, we keep the fares as low as possible so we expect an average income of US$ 0.50 per trip. This is actually low for the US and Europe but about right for a developing city. It gives us an income of just over US$ 27 million a year. Well folks, this doesn't even cover our interest payments. And we haven't paid for our power yet, nor employees to run the system, nor allowed for maintenance costs, nor a sinking fund for renewals. And we haven't figured out how to pay back the $750 million we borrowed in the first place, which the bank wants back in 10 years - equivalent to $75 million a year.

Here is our simplified annual income and expenditure sheet:

Item Income/Year Expenditure/Year
Fares $27 million
Operations $25 million
Maintenance $20 million
Renewals $15 million
Interest $75 million
Repayments $75 million

Item Income/Year Expenditure/Year
Total $27 million $200 million


So, in our example, our costs are nearly seven times our income and our income estimates are already very optimistic. Here, we are seeing income as 12.8% of expenditure. In most modern rail transit projects the real income/expenditure ratio is between 5% and 20%. Don't forget also that there won't be any income for the three to four years (or whatever) it takes to build the system.

High Speed Line Financing Example
In considering costs and revenue, we can look also at a high speed line. In this example, the project is a 350 km line which is expected to cost US$ 17.5 billion to build and equip. Daily trips are expected to be 250,000, so each trip must generate $19.75 just to cover interest payments. An additional $75 a trip will be required to cover operating, energy and maintenance costs. So far no profit has been included. An airline ticket to cover the same distance is approximately the same price but the trip takes one third of the time. The government would have to finance a large chunk of the construction costs (the expectation is 50%) and they would have to guarantee the repayments to lenders. The hope is that property development in the areas around the stations along the route will generate finance and income to help fund the project. Property can be very profitable but it is also a very high risk investment and it should be regarded as a long term investment. Only a few new railways have generated much additional income through property development.

The Way Forward - Backwards?
The last 15 years have shown that the privatisation of the railways in the UK has not proved to be the success that politicians hoped it would be. It has proved expensive, increasing real costs by 50% pro rata over those of the nationalised railway.

Sources: International Railway Journal, Railway Gazette International, Modern Railways, Railway Age, Mass Transit, Asia Rail Conference 1999.

Rossikk: Ever heard of Public-Private Partnership?

Rossikk: Mr Socrates. I'm sure they never thought about that, unlike you, the guru.

Why don't you wait for the project completion. Then you'll see where the power would be ''conjured'' from?

Adanyebe: What did ideye brown gaain from missing all our chances?

adaobi123: lol I dont even have one

hahhaha congestion charge !! ken livingstone at his best

You could get it for me nah.....lol
unless you don't travel out of London often

The rail card cuts the costs by up to 35% at times....(kai I miss those days of Leeds monthly trips )

adaobi123: yeah I know expensive london !

loool you're getting old

You could give me your own rail card as friends nah .......lol

The new houses around Stratford looks tempting, might be coming back to London depending on plans....my only concern is the congestion charges when driving and the unpredictability of jubilee line....

adaobi123: Kai and you live in the midlands ? you try o !

The house prices in central london is crazy I tell ya... I miss those days of student rail cards

But its very comfy on the trains apart from Fridays.

adaobi123: but still thats a lot of money a week just to get food though.

abeg I need to hit canning town !!! Im coming for ya

adaobi123: you serious ? you get momey o !

adaobi123: if theres suya in the usa, there must be suya here Suya I go find you

check the Nigerian restaurant in Canning town, they usually do suya, asun, snails.

I make a two hour journey from the midlands just for their "ewa aganyin" every other week

Billyonaire: If GEJ decides to probe him, I am 100% sure there will be reason for OBJ to go back to prison. But I trust GEJ to dismiss an old man's folly and wrestle all the ills that OBJ stockpiled.

Dilapidated Airports, renovated and more constructed.
The Power Sector Epilepsy with billions finding its way into the accounts on OBJ's surrogates both home and abroad.
Even the Otta Farm he is living is a property of the Feds via the Defunct River Basin Authority.

OBJ was just a thug in Government, pursuing Mike Adenuga out of the country and also Pocketing his 250m Naira and chasing his opponents up and down. OBJ went ahead to impose a sick Yaradua (RIP) on Nigerians because he knew he will be too sick to out-perform him in office, so he, OBJ can shine for ever. Now that GEJ has out-perfome in just 2yrs, OBJ has gone crazy acting like a child dancing to the drum beats of the masquerade.

OBJ needs classroom lessons from IBB, Gowon, Abdulsalam etc on how to shut-the-hell up!

GEJ has done in 2yrs, what OBJ could not do in 8yrs, this is indisputable. That talkative of a woman needs to be probed, and she has to go to prison for abuse of the tenets of Freedom of Speech. Freedom has limitation and repercussion, its NOT Liberty. If she is clean, she should not be afraid of ICPC, and OBJ should not freak-out, cos the ICPC is indirectly against him, She has to answer to Nigerians and for OBJ.

I love OBJ, but I hate is bullish & f00lish loquaciousness.

Orikinla: So what then do we make of this news that Diezani Alison-Madueke and Mamphele Ramphele Among Leading Influential African Women
http://www.nigeriansreport.com/2013/04/diezani-alison-madueke-and-mamphele.html

Sincere 9gerian: .... the new Chief Justice of the Federation is taking steps to curb the impunity in the Judiciary. Recently, 3 Justices were sacked. About 14 Justices or so are currently being investigated by the National Judicial Council.........hose who abused the system are currently undergoing prosecution.

usmsam: @SincereNigerian, Rossike, Billyonaire and co
So all of you can sit in front of your computer all day lying blatantly and then pray to God later with no shame. I weep for you all.

Devils in human form!

dayokanu: Anyone that expected anything better from Retardeen given his antecedents is not being realistic

First Jonathan was installed by the corrupt politicians to protect their interest.

He has never excelled in any position before.

From his time as Bayelsa Deputy when he was Alams deputy stealing them dry or his reign as Governor where his wife was stealing the state dry

He has blatantly refused to declare his assets when his Boss Yar Adua did

Welcome to the Fresh air we voted since he had no shoes

otokx: This money would have made more impact if invested in power or roads. Why do we engage in self deception? Why do we compare ourselves with India that has a technically sound & competent educational/medical system? What is wrong with our leaders?