₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
Only possible if you know you are gambling. But most people are gambling but think they are investing.

When your N1 million turn to N2 million in 6 months, the next target is how to turn the N2 million to N4 million in another 6 months.


What you make does not matter, what matters is the consistency of what you make and what you keep

Okay. Thank you.

yak:
Someone should advise me what to do with Eterna. I bought at #28.
Keep hope alive or sell and cut my losses?

Based on two recent insider trades, I suggest you keep hope alive. Eterna is turning positive should the current trajectory continue. I bought some at 15.50, and took some profit at 21.75 but will continue to hold. My target is 30.

emmanuelewumi:
If you made a gain of 100% in year one and made a loss of 50% in year two, do you know that you compounded annualized return in 2 years is 0%

Not if you booked the profit or took the profit off the table to buy back when the market dropped by 50%.

Let’s consider two market scenarios, M1 and M2

Start @ Market M1 investment = x

Market M1 appreciation by 100% = X * 2.0 = 2x

Assuming booked profit

Booked profit = x ( taking profit/ booking profit of x off the table)

Balance still invested @ M1 = 2x -x = x

And then,

Market slumped @ M2 = 50% of x that’s still invested = 0.5x

If the investor decides not to buy back, he /she ends up with x + 1/2 x = 1.5x from the initial of x

However, if he/she buys back at 0.5x with the x profit initially taken off the table, =

Previously Booked profit = x, now channeled to buy back at @ M2 but at a price 0.5x

holding units = 0.5x + 1/0.5x
= 3 times initial holding


Always sensible to take profits.

megawealth01:
I told someone years ago that I won't buy Nestle until it's trading sub 500...

Is this price achievable? Only Mr Time will answer this

A look at the shareholders structure will speak volumes on why this is not likely to happen. Even if the eps is sub zero for years.

emmanuelewumi:
[/b]
I am not buying. I expect the price of banking stocks to crash by first quarter of 2025.

I will then buy on the floor.


Banks will still do well and are currently cheap but can be cheaper.


My opinion though

[b]Historically true Post recapitalization.

emmanuelewumi:
At N590 Dangote cement EPS of N11.00 for H1

At N109 BUA cement EPS of N1. 01 for H1

At N37 Lafarge cement EPS of N1.80 for H1

Big brother’s Hmmmmmm

Okayoooo!!!



Common Sense Strategy.

Drama


[center][/center]

aj8:
Based on Common sense strategy , RT BRISCOE AND CUSTODIAN LIKELY TO DO 100% in a few months. I am in on RT BRISCOE.

RT BRISCOE Has done 100% . It’s now at 1.50 Well done those that took the trade. I got in at 0.73

naturalflow:
you did very well here,thank you so much.but on that transcorp,I guess you take another look.not because I am in the bus already ooo,as you also said,transcorp is a growing stock,so the EPs keeps increasing

Please look at the review.




Will still buy but only below 50k. That’s for me. I will start to take profits once it crosses 70k

dapix:
NCI- meaning Non Controlling Interest right?

Yes

Mpeace:
Hope you no want just de market transcorp. The company is doing exceptionally well these days and is about to pay an interim dividend of 10kobo this month. Full year should be good.
Some of us prefer capital appreciation to dividend, and with Transcorp the chances are very high.

No, I am not. My apologies if you perceived it that way. It's okay to stick to your trades. I fully respect your choice. My respect!

naturalflow:
Prestige assurance is taking us there!so cheap!

My Common Sense Target
90k

Q = 6
FY = 6 x 4 = 24k
Common Sense Value =6 x x4 x4 =96k [/b]

My target will be 90k

I hope I haven't missed anything important.

Do your DD Though.


Note I edited.

TRANSCORP is okay as long as you wouldn’t mind a 5kobo dividend per share bought at over N11.00 If you are willing to wait out price appreciation.

It’s not on my radar for now. Moreover, the NCI is scary.

Adinije:
@Aj8 abeg, come and give your common sense analysis on Transcorp

Not looking good. A lot of red flags. But some may argue it’s a growth stock. Well, you properly know what I think. I won’t touch it till it falls below my Valuation based on the Common Sense Strategy. But then, if Geregu is comfortable at N1000.00, who knows? The stock market is a forest. In a financial hurricane, only the Irokos will stand. Is TRANSCORP one? Maybe later. But not just yet.


Summary is viz:
Q =19.97 Kobo
FY = 19.97 x 4
Valuation = 19.97 x 4 x 4 = 319.52
= N3.19

A [b]Reserve Stock Split [/b]will increase the price, and reduce OS, but the cap will be unchanged. The company will gain in that they can offer their shares at a higher price in raising more capital in the future.

chunkuli:
@ Aj8 Please can you suggest some of these biotech companies? I trade the US biotech stocks too. Please iin other not to derail the thread, please send to Solaralph2002@gmail.com, thank you

Markets like say the US? …I have only tried it on the Nigerian Stock Market. Has worked for me for over 20 years. DO NOT APPLY TO ANY OTHER MARKET OTHER THAN THE NGX. I do trade on NASDAQ but limited to Biotechnology where I can apply my medical knowledge. For this, I simply put up notifications on Yahoo Finance to jump in at support for selected companies with huge prospects and FDA catalysts like PDUFA news, etc. The chances of being profitable increase by buying at the right price. And again, no profit is profit until taken and banked.

Noted. Don't.just buy at any price. Buy at support. After AI, the next big thing is obesity/diabetes/Ozempic and anything G1P. Use the Nasdaq screener. Search Strong buy..Biotechnology. Don't do biotech except you understand the field. Biotech is not an area you buy and go to sleep. If you are in the medical that would be a huge plus. Derailed only this once.

yMcy56:
I understood that your "Common Sense" strategy is FA based somehow....
I however will say, SA wise this stock CWG and Ikeja Hotels are promising, may not be now, but there's something that will come up along the line to make them attractive to investors.
Financial wise, there are lots of improvements Q-on-Q

For CWG, from 5 and below, I think it should be good for accumulation.......barring any unforeseen circumstances.

Thank you for your comments yMcy56. Noted.
Common sense is at N5.30 approximately. I wouldn’t buy till it’s well below that price. I will, however, based on your depth of guru insight, keep it on watch list. You have my utmost respect.

yMcy56:
Simply check your mail and reply the person....
Or, click on the notification (that someone has sent you msg) on top of the NL page once you login, it will link you to the mail.
You can dismiss the msg thereafter on NL page by clicking "dismiss".

Thank you.

ikemeze:
. Thanks . I sent you email. Please check it

Can anybody please educate me on how to check mails on this platform . Some may actual feel I am ignoring them. Ndo!

Streetinvestor2:
It is obvious you went through the result what was the percentage of forex gain to the total revenue. Or thr was no forex gain in the result .I want to be sure the present eps is not forex gain imput

PLEASE DO YOUR RESEARCH. ITS CALL DUE DILIGENCE ANYONE COULD BE WRONG AND THAT INCLUDES ME. YOU ARE YOUR CEO. WE ARE ALL TRYING THE BEST TO HELP ONE ANOTHER GET THROUGH THESE DIFFICULT TIMES. TO GOD ALONE WE OWE ALL WE HAVE AND ARE. Just note the NCI ( Non - non-controlling interest). Rather small here.

COMMON SENSE STRATEGY TO WORK MUST BE BASED ON ORGANIC GROWTH. PLEASE GO THROUGH MY EARLIER POST.

Did you notice the multiple insider trades? June 2024.

ikemeze:
Please do CWG

Too many red flags…. Inventories and receivables.

Alagbalaowo:
Thank you aj8 for this formula.
I would like to know if the (2) factor is constant for both penny stocks and large stocks?

H1 = x2 x4
Q=x4 x4
True for all stocks. Mega caps seem comfortable with x5 ( the upper range ) e.g Total
I need not remind you that the Femi Otedola factor can drive some stock well above what is reasonable. I avoid such stocks. Not unless you prefer a ROI of less than 5%.

For growth stocks, you need to use the best Q x 4 if doing well and the worst Q if doing badly.

emmaodet:
Hello bro.
Please can you use your valuation for Custodian Investment? The HY EPS is 377k / #3.77 and CP is #11.7.
Using your valuation, the FVE is #22-#25 but her current CP is close to her 52 weeks high already.

So?
So why did the Managing Director Mr. Wole Oshin purchase over 19 million units on 7th June 2024 at an average price of N10.56? I don't think it's for 15 kobo dividends alone? It must get why! At best replicate this or better still buy below this price. That is if it eventually falls below this before it starts heading north. I would jump in at any price around 10.50 or lower, topping up should it dip further. Target still 22.00. Likely to do well.

Still do your DD.

eziokwunwoko:
Good evening aj8. Please work on CWG and Ikeja Hotel PLC. Please you are doing a good job

Ikeja Hotel

H1=62k
FY=0.62x2=1.24
Common Sense Value ( lower) = 1.24 x 4 =. N4. 96
Common Sense value (upper) =1.24 x 5 = N6.20
Target Price Range =N4.96 - N6.20
Current price = N6.8
Hence Overvalued by the strategy. NOT A GOOD BUY AT THE CURRENT PRICE. ALLOW TA TO SUPPORT. Please see charts.


Please also note that dividend payment is poor to bonds and treasury bill yields so if penalized by applying a 75% marked down of the lower value, would fall to N3.72.

For me, it's not a good buy except well below this figure. That's for me though.!!!

eziokwunwoko:
Good evening aj8. Please work on CWG and IKeja Hotel PLC. Please you are doing a good job

Noted.

emmaodet:
Hello bro, please how does a bonus issuance affects stock price in relation to your strategy

It does not. Will only drive the price up faster and higher after the bonus news is leaked or released e.g Ucap . Calculations are based on current eps or estimated dividend payment. The post referenced was actually before CBN and Recapitalization. Insiders buying into a stock currently well above valuation especially if the CEO or CFO must get why. E.g. UCAP bonus recently. 👀NAHCO 👀AfrPrud

Mfunkynation:
pls why are you using 75% of assume FY EPS here.
you didn't use it in Total

You can check my earlier posts. I will however repeat that for companies the market adjudged their dividends policy to be a bit below average, use 75% of the calculations. You will recall this was the case for the likes of UBA, FCMB, Access, etc. before they caught up with the likes of Zenith, GTCO, Stanbic, etc. If the market is happy don’t apply 75%.

Streetinvestor2:
Is this the strategy u use in all your buying? If so wahala dey for many stocks That means you can't buy many stock.Then this your 4 yr time frame is not applicable in many businesses. That said, is good to adopt a strategy you believe works for you
Any business on negative or no eps cannot be considered for buy

I have only one exception for now and that’s Ella Lakes. I will hold whatever the cost!!! I like their business model. And I believe they have the team to achieve tremendous growth. Before the stock crash years back I was into all sorts. That sad experience taught me huge lessons. I would rather stick to this. Stick with anything that you are comfortable with as long as it’s profitable.

sterlingD:
Can you give some insight or breakdown on that of Custodian

My reference price when called was about N10.50. Current price today is N11.70. Here is the calculation based on the strategy

H1=3.77
FY est =3.77 x 2 = 7.54
FY x 4 = 7.54 x 4 = 30.00 approximately

75% 0f N30 = N22

That’s my target. If they pay total dividends of N1.00 or more.

So My Target is N22.00

Please do your DD .

aj8:
The calculation is not for the entry price. Will do the maths for Total ( for both that based on Eps and that based on dividend payment ) for you and paste it here later. Kindly go through my earlier posts.

( a) H1 x 2 x 4 = Common Sense Valuation
(b) Dividend x 10

Apply whichever is higher. If the current price is significantly below that Value then likely to appreciate to that price in the future. Common Sense.

Common Sense Strategy for Total Energies. Target is N480.00 minimum and if by x5 of EPS = N600 . Hence range is N480-N600. Still has at least 10% upside from current price based on EPS x 4. However if they pay dividends of more than N30.00 , price may attain the upper limit of the range.

The current price is N427.70. Still has about 10% + from lower of the range.

Heishere:
I tried your common sense formula on Total using the current half-year EPS. The entry price calculated is N96 which is far below the current price which I think is a good entry price. help me confirm if my calculation is correct. H1 EPS is N60.

The calculation is not for the entry price. Will do the maths for Total ( for both that based on Eps and that based on dividend payment ) for you and paste it here later. Kindly go through my earlier posts.

( a) H1 x 2 x 4 = Common Sense Valuation
(b) Dividend x 10

Apply whichever is higher. If the current price is significantly below that Value then likely to appreciate to that price in the future. Common Sense.

Tayo2k7:
I am a JJC on this.

I have just been buying AND BUYING

Please i do i take partial profit

I think it depends on your reason for trading/buying the stock. If for instance, it's for your grandchildren, then just buy right and hold till whenever that may be. The problem with this is that some stocks, and a good number, would swing up but swing down and you end up losing whatever profits gained. But you still would take home something if it's a dividend-paying stock or else if it is like Oando that once hit N200…surely those that bought it then will not be as excited as those jumping in recently. For me, I use percentage appreciation or simply price gains..E.g for percentage anything from 20-30 percent I start to take profits off the table by selling the units that give what that gain translates as. My most recent example is Veritaskap which I bought again at 0.93 after the initial 0.55. Using my entry of 0.93, the difference from the 1.24 it hit today gave a 0.31 difference. I multiplied the 0.31 by my total holding at that reference price of 0.93 ( 2,955,000 ) which gave 916,050.00 (0.31 x 2,955,000) I therefore sold 738,750 units at 1.24 and banked. Should the price fall significantly below this point, I would simply buy back or better still apply to another more profitable trade. However, for stock mega caps I decide on the price gain that to me is profitable e.g. N2-4 gain in UBA, Zenith Bank, GTCO, etc. could fetch as much as N200k income less deductions of commissions. I would also buy back if it falls well below that price I took some profits or apply funds elsewhere. For a Re-entry to be profitable, it must at least cover twice the commission and yet add extra units above what was sold.

ojesymsym:
Hello sir,
I remembered your post after seeing a few of your comments and had to go search for it again. In the mean time, while trying to digest it, I have a few questions,

Do you think this system works on other stock markets like say the US?
Do you use it to buy to hold or to buy and sell when the time is right.

Thanks

1. Do you think this system works on other stock markets like say the US? …I have only tried it on the Nigerian Stock Market. Has worked for me for over 20 years. DO NOT APPLY TO ANY OTHER MARKET OTHER THAN THE NGX. I do trade on NASDAQ but limited to Biotechnology where I can apply my medical knowledge. For this, I simply put up notifications on Yahoo Finance to jump in at support for selected companies with huge prospects and FDA catalysts like PDUFA news, etc. The chances of being profitable increase by buying at the right price. And again, no profit is profit until taken and banked.

2. Do you use it to buy to hold or to buy and sell when the time is right.?…..Can work with either. It’s all about buying at the right price. See it more like buying a shirt at a supermarket. Of course, you would like to buy it when the shirt is on sale. Stocks likewise are sometimes on “sales” e.g. when bad news strikes, or simply when the price dips. Look for support and police that point for buy market reactions. Volume most times ticks up if it hits a point that the market perceives as a good entry point. Also when the eps suggests that the stock is grossly undervalued like what I term Common Sense Strategy…buy! I sincerely hope my response helps. Be profitable.