₦airaland Forum

Streetinvestor2:
It is obvious you went through the result what was the percentage of forex gain to the total revenue. Or thr was no forex gain in the result .I want to be sure the present eps is not forex gain imput

PLEASE DO YOUR RESEARCH. ITS CALL DUE DILIGENCE ANYONE COULD BE WRONG AND THAT INCLUDES ME. YOU ARE YOUR CEO. WE ARE ALL TRYING THE BEST TO HELP ONE ANOTHER GET THROUGH THESE DIFFICULT TIMES. TO GOD ALONE WE OWE ALL WE HAVE AND ARE. Just note the NCI ( Non - non-controlling interest). Rather small here.

COMMON SENSE STRATEGY TO WORK MUST BE BASED ON ORGANIC GROWTH. PLEASE GO THROUGH MY EARLIER POST.

Did you notice the multiple insider trades? June 2024.

ikemeze:
Please do CWG

Too many red flags…. Inventories and receivables.

Alagbalaowo:
Thank you aj8 for this formula.
I would like to know if the (2) factor is constant for both penny stocks and large stocks?

H1 = x2 x4
Q=x4 x4
True for all stocks. Mega caps seem comfortable with x5 ( the upper range ) e.g Total
I need not remind you that the Femi Otedola factor can drive some stock well above what is reasonable. I avoid such stocks. Not unless you prefer a ROI of less than 5%.

For growth stocks, you need to use the best Q x 4 if doing well and the worst Q if doing badly.

emmaodet:
Hello bro.
Please can you use your valuation for Custodian Investment? The HY EPS is 377k / #3.77 and CP is #11.7.
Using your valuation, the FVE is #22-#25 but her current CP is close to her 52 weeks high already.

So?
So why did the Managing Director Mr. Wole Oshin purchase over 19 million units on 7th June 2024 at an average price of N10.56? I don't think it's for 15 kobo dividends alone? It must get why! At best replicate this or better still buy below this price. That is if it eventually falls below this before it starts heading north. I would jump in at any price around 10.50 or lower, topping up should it dip further. Target still 22.00. Likely to do well.

Still do your DD.

eziokwunwoko:
Good evening aj8. Please work on CWG and Ikeja Hotel PLC. Please you are doing a good job

Ikeja Hotel

H1=62k
FY=0.62x2=1.24
Common Sense Value ( lower) = 1.24 x 4 =. N4. 96
Common Sense value (upper) =1.24 x 5 = N6.20
Target Price Range =N4.96 - N6.20
Current price = N6.8
Hence Overvalued by the strategy. NOT A GOOD BUY AT THE CURRENT PRICE. ALLOW TA TO SUPPORT. Please see charts.


Please also note that dividend payment is poor to bonds and treasury bill yields so if penalized by applying a 75% marked down of the lower value, would fall to N3.72.

For me, it's not a good buy except well below this figure. That's for me though.!!!

eziokwunwoko:
Good evening aj8. Please work on CWG and IKeja Hotel PLC. Please you are doing a good job

Noted.

emmaodet:
Hello bro, please how does a bonus issuance affects stock price in relation to your strategy

It does not. Will only drive the price up faster and higher after the bonus news is leaked or released e.g Ucap . Calculations are based on current eps or estimated dividend payment. The post referenced was actually before CBN and Recapitalization. Insiders buying into a stock currently well above valuation especially if the CEO or CFO must get why. E.g. UCAP bonus recently. 👀NAHCO 👀AfrPrud

Mfunkynation:
pls why are you using 75% of assume FY EPS here.
you didn't use it in Total

You can check my earlier posts. I will however repeat that for companies the market adjudged their dividends policy to be a bit below average, use 75% of the calculations. You will recall this was the case for the likes of UBA, FCMB, Access, etc. before they caught up with the likes of Zenith, GTCO, Stanbic, etc. If the market is happy don’t apply 75%.

Streetinvestor2:
Is this the strategy u use in all your buying? If so wahala dey for many stocks That means you can't buy many stock.Then this your 4 yr time frame is not applicable in many businesses. That said, is good to adopt a strategy you believe works for you
Any business on negative or no eps cannot be considered for buy

I have only one exception for now and that’s Ella Lakes. I will hold whatever the cost!!! I like their business model. And I believe they have the team to achieve tremendous growth. Before the stock crash years back I was into all sorts. That sad experience taught me huge lessons. I would rather stick to this. Stick with anything that you are comfortable with as long as it’s profitable.

sterlingD:
Can you give some insight or breakdown on that of Custodian

My reference price when called was about N10.50. Current price today is N11.70. Here is the calculation based on the strategy

H1=3.77
FY est =3.77 x 2 = 7.54
FY x 4 = 7.54 x 4 = 30.00 approximately

75% 0f N30 = N22

That’s my target. If they pay total dividends of N1.00 or more.

So My Target is N22.00

Please do your DD .

aj8:
The calculation is not for the entry price. Will do the maths for Total ( for both that based on Eps and that based on dividend payment ) for you and paste it here later. Kindly go through my earlier posts.

( a) H1 x 2 x 4 = Common Sense Valuation
(b) Dividend x 10

Apply whichever is higher. If the current price is significantly below that Value then likely to appreciate to that price in the future. Common Sense.

Common Sense Strategy for Total Energies. Target is N480.00 minimum and if by x5 of EPS = N600 . Hence range is N480-N600. Still has at least 10% upside from current price based on EPS x 4. However if they pay dividends of more than N30.00 , price may attain the upper limit of the range.

The current price is N427.70. Still has about 10% + from lower of the range.

Heishere:
I tried your common sense formula on Total using the current half-year EPS. The entry price calculated is N96 which is far below the current price which I think is a good entry price. help me confirm if my calculation is correct. H1 EPS is N60.

The calculation is not for the entry price. Will do the maths for Total ( for both that based on Eps and that based on dividend payment ) for you and paste it here later. Kindly go through my earlier posts.

( a) H1 x 2 x 4 = Common Sense Valuation
(b) Dividend x 10

Apply whichever is higher. If the current price is significantly below that Value then likely to appreciate to that price in the future. Common Sense.

Tayo2k7:
I am a JJC on this.

I have just been buying AND BUYING

Please i do i take partial profit

I think it depends on your reason for trading/buying the stock. If for instance, it's for your grandchildren, then just buy right and hold till whenever that may be. The problem with this is that some stocks, and a good number, would swing up but swing down and you end up losing whatever profits gained. But you still would take home something if it's a dividend-paying stock or else if it is like Oando that once hit N200…surely those that bought it then will not be as excited as those jumping in recently. For me, I use percentage appreciation or simply price gains..E.g for percentage anything from 20-30 percent I start to take profits off the table by selling the units that give what that gain translates as. My most recent example is Veritaskap which I bought again at 0.93 after the initial 0.55. Using my entry of 0.93, the difference from the 1.24 it hit today gave a 0.31 difference. I multiplied the 0.31 by my total holding at that reference price of 0.93 ( 2,955,000 ) which gave 916,050.00 (0.31 x 2,955,000) I therefore sold 738,750 units at 1.24 and banked. Should the price fall significantly below this point, I would simply buy back or better still apply to another more profitable trade. However, for stock mega caps I decide on the price gain that to me is profitable e.g. N2-4 gain in UBA, Zenith Bank, GTCO, etc. could fetch as much as N200k income less deductions of commissions. I would also buy back if it falls well below that price I took some profits or apply funds elsewhere. For a Re-entry to be profitable, it must at least cover twice the commission and yet add extra units above what was sold.

ojesymsym:
Hello sir,
I remembered your post after seeing a few of your comments and had to go search for it again. In the mean time, while trying to digest it, I have a few questions,

Do you think this system works on other stock markets like say the US?
Do you use it to buy to hold or to buy and sell when the time is right.

Thanks

1. Do you think this system works on other stock markets like say the US? …I have only tried it on the Nigerian Stock Market. Has worked for me for over 20 years. DO NOT APPLY TO ANY OTHER MARKET OTHER THAN THE NGX. I do trade on NASDAQ but limited to Biotechnology where I can apply my medical knowledge. For this, I simply put up notifications on Yahoo Finance to jump in at support for selected companies with huge prospects and FDA catalysts like PDUFA news, etc. The chances of being profitable increase by buying at the right price. And again, no profit is profit until taken and banked.

2. Do you use it to buy to hold or to buy and sell when the time is right.?…..Can work with either. It’s all about buying at the right price. See it more like buying a shirt at a supermarket. Of course, you would like to buy it when the shirt is on sale. Stocks likewise are sometimes on “sales” e.g. when bad news strikes, or simply when the price dips. Look for support and police that point for buy market reactions. Volume most times ticks up if it hits a point that the market perceives as a good entry point. Also when the eps suggests that the stock is grossly undervalued like what I term Common Sense Strategy…buy! I sincerely hope my response helps. Be profitable.

MARKETJJC:
Few months like 24 months or 18 months or 36 months? . And Why RT BRISCOE?

RT BRISCOE at 1.33. Congratulations on those that joined at or below 0.73 a few days ago. Please take some profits off the table.




Common Sense Strategy.

aj8:
Remember to take profits along the way. This is how I do it. Calculate the difference in your purchase price and the current price x the number of stock holdings. Sell the number of shares that equates that figure to the nearest whole number. You need not factor charges, it’s merely an approximation so you don’t lose your gains. Should the current price fall significantly below the price, buy back shares that the amount you took off the table as profit can buy back at the new lower price. My Target for RT is still N1.60. It’s not a stock in my opinion for long-term hold as of yet.

Remember, gains are not yet dusted till it’s banked.

Always take profits off the table. RT BRISCOE is at 1.33 . Target remains same.
Same goes for Veritaskap . Take profits along the journey and bank. I took off some of my Veritaskap not minding the full bid.

Common Sense Strategy

Common sense strategy on Veritaskap sees it reaching at least N1.60 . Bought some more yesterday at 0.88. I will not buy more except below 0.88

aj8:
Based on Common sense strategy , RT BRISCOE AND CUSTODIAN LIKELY TO DO 100% in a few months. I am in on RT BRISCOE.

Remember to take profits along the way. This is how I do it. Calculate the difference in your purchase price and the current price x the number of stock holdings. Sell the number of shares that equates that figure to the nearest whole number. You need not factor charges, it’s merely an approximation so you don’t lose your gains. Should the current price fall significantly below the price, buy back shares that the amount you took off the table as profit can buy back at the new lower price. My Target for RT is still N1.60. It’s not a stock in my opinion for long-term hold as of yet.

Remember, gains are not yet dusted till it’s banked.

MARKETJJC:
Few months like 24 months or 18 months or 36 months? . And Why RT BRISCOE?

Reference price RT is 0.7300. Target 1.60 . But will not hold beyond this price whatever the news.

Based on Common sense strategy , RT BRISCOE AND CUSTODIAN LIKELY TO DO 100% in a few months. I am in on RT BRISCOE.

Transcorp reverse stock split doesn’t sound nice.

robobo:
Hello Chief. Please can you share the document you are referring to in your write up? the document cannot be found in the link. Appr8

No. 9

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40904_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-UBA_PLC_-_NOTICE_OF_AGM_MAY_24,_2024_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_APRIL_2024.pdf




Tony is smart. Book building strategy is fantastic. Probably eyes fixed on an offer bid prices in the range of N30-35 judging by the new shares tabled (but a higher cut off is still possible) to raise the extra capital. He only needs to show that UBA can sustain a dividend policy above N3.00 yearly after recapitalization to achieve good uptake/bids. He has my respect 🫡 . He probably has a foreign underwriter. On this route, UBA should meet recapitalization in weeks or a couple of months. This is a clear pointer to a fantastic Q1 result. No one does this without good sure back up. Q1 results would probably come in right after closure of register to give wind to the sails of this option.

SonofElElyonRet:
Was just about to point out same note 29 which is titled distributions made and proposed and refers to dividends for 2022 and dividends 2023
Might be wrong but doesn't this suggest that new shareholders could still qualify for one of the dividends? Sad that there isn't full disclosure in clear terms from the company and the stock exchange is just not living up to expectations as a regulator

Remember they only listed their shares. It was not an IPO.

SonofElElyonRet:
Was just about to point out same note 29 which is titled distributions made and proposed and refers to dividends for 2022 and dividends 2023
Might be wrong but doesn't this suggest that new shareholders could still qualify for one of the dividends? Sad that there isn't full disclosure in clear terms from the company and the stock exchange is just not living up to expectations as a regulator

No

For the reason below

“The company during its 58th Board Meeting held on Monday, December 18, 2023 declared an interim dividend of N23,462,335,236 which is a dividend per share of N247.07 to its shareholders.”

Wishing everyone Happy Easter. May this season illuminate our shared gift of salvation that worketh through the grace of He that reigns King above all things in heaven and earth forever. Happy Easter . The Lord Is, now and always. Amen

SonofElElyonRet:
The results clearly say N92.25k eps

[/b]
Can someone help explain the [b]interim dividend declared for 2022 and 2023...
*why interim?
*will new shareholders who bought after listing on the stock market be entitled to both 2022 and 2023 interim dividends?

The results are for year end 31st December 2023. Interim because the decision was taken before the end of year 2023. Actually on 18th December 2023 subject to approval at the next AGM.
Also note that the decision to increase shares to 7.5 bill and list as public was done at the same meeting but the day after on the 19th December 2023 and so did not qualify .

Refer to the following for further clarification
-Page 2 of the report
-Check Note 29 on page 65 of the report

Sad but they knew what they were doing. Don’t bother computing. You will not qualify except indirectly through the shareholdings of TRANSCORP Group

Interesting Ratio UBA: ZENITH : GTCO 1:1.45:1.75 (Approximately).

Hogwarthtrades:
Two things deducted from reading this:

1. possibly a 2 man show, Aig and MR Wigwe (RIP) with no real sucession plan or trust of subordinates.
2. Hopefully this serves as a wake up call to companies to inculcate the ability to groom trust worthy subordinates (easier said than done!!) for times like this.
Access holding will come out greater though!!!

Risk of too much drama. May eventually hurt Access

1. Ex CEO/MD vs incumbent CEO/MD
2. Ex Chairman on the same Board now as Director
3. Co-Founder mentality. Will they breath?
4. Apparently nil succession plan.
5. Probably a fire brigade response aimed to build investor confidence.

Let’s see how price would react after earning results.

yMcy56:
I think with Transcorp having larger share of this, Transcorp faithfuls stands to be rewarded.......i.e. the higher the price goes, the better for Transcorp faithfuls.

This is my personal opinion btw.

Not exactly.
TRANSCORP only gains from earnings or scrips. Not unless they decide to liquidate their holdings (in part or full) to cash then would the going price mean anything. Let it reach 2000 if it wants, issue is, what would be the dividend eventually or earnings to TRANSCORP Holding and other shareholders.

yMcy56:
Thanks Oga Customs. 😊

@Aj8 this Oga is possibly giving us vital info here o.
I knew Tony will probably have plan for Transcorp PLC too.

We will know today after closing hours whether it’s grapevine or Chivita.