₦airaland Forum

Svoboda:
So, all the northern govs are collectively going to run as president in 2031?

After all said and done, it's the emirs and islamic clerics who have some level of control over the populace that will determine what happens in the north in 2027, and not northern govs who control nothing.

If Atiku has truly inherited Buharis support, which I believe he substantially has, it's over for Tinubu who doesn't even sincerely trust those governors.

Two emirs already endorsed Tinubu

Svoboda:
This pure wishful thinking. Politics is projection and analysis and not fantasy.

Did Peter Obi have any stalwart in public office before he won edo and delta in 2023?

He won there because the obi wave was massive there. It has dissipated

onatisi:
The fact that ADC is under constant attack by the judiciary and INEC actually shows where the threat to tinubu reelection is . Secondly, the South isn't for one person; the votes from the South will be broken into pieces. It is the North that will decide who eventually wins the 2027 elections. In the South, Atiku, Obi, Makinde, and tinubu will all have their share of votes, but the North will be a straight fight between Atiku and tinubu. The rigging machinery that worked for APC against Atiku in 2023 is no longer there, but let's wait and see how it all pans out

The machinery is still there

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Kwankwanso would win Kano

Narrowly. What about other northern states

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Obi would win every SS states,Bayelsa is the first state because it is the home of NDC ,IJaws see NDC as their party.Obi would clear the whole SS states,the only place he might have issues is Rivers state .Obi won Delta in 2023 even with their Gov as vp candidate.In 2027,he would win with a bigger margin. The problem with you guys you think Govs determing votes of the whole state.Obi had no Gov in 2023 and won tinubu even in Lagos

Obi can't win bayelsa. Dickson cannot deliver bayelsa. Obi will win delta but with lower margin

HIGHESTPOPORI:
keep dreaming

There's no pathway for your obi

CapitalBank:
😂 dreamer.

Why would South East want to rig? Do they even want Tinubu in the first place?

But statistics showed that they rig? Why would SW want to rig? Do they want Obi to start with

Svoboda:
That was after the presidential election in 2011.

Guber is always after presidential na. Except you mean bye polls in the run up to 2015...

Kwankwaso said majority of north east will go with Atiku if Tinubu doesn't retain shettima. With Tinubu retaining shettima, it means this majority will be eroded. It will be like 2023. 55:35:10%. He also said the north west is a battle ground. A thoroughbred analyst won't dispute this

franchasng:
Atiku or Obi will get the highest votes cast while Tinubu will get the highest spread.


This will lead to a rerun between Tinubu and Atiku or Obi.


If the election goes to rerun between Tinubu and Atiku, Atiku will win because Obi supporters will queue behind Atiku.


If its between Tinubu and Obi, majority of Atiku supporters will vote for Obi.


But I know Tinubu have perfected plans to rig the election massively using Nigerian state institutions but he should tread with caution cos the outcome might not be as he and his supporters think because I know Tinubu's loss will be too huge to be covered up through rigging.


Let's watch and see as it goes sha

Tinubu will win sir

CapitalBank:
South West people didn’t even vote him last election but he used each state governor to carry out rigging and Makinde is regretting partaking in that nonsense that Wike lured him into.

Tinubus method is simple: Hijack leadership apparatuses of states and use that to carry out rigging.

But like I said, he has bandits and terrorist on speed dial. Don’t underestimate what evil that man is capable of.

But there's more evidence of rigging in SE than SW

franchasng:
Yes Atiku has made several political mistakes, he seems to surround himself with the wrong people who dont give him political advice based on reality.


Atiku should have been President long time ago if not for miscalculation and pride.



Tinubu's only pathway to winning the election in 2027 is through massive rigging nothing more or less. Tinubu will not even win Southwest states with landslide vote if there was a free and fair election.


A lot of Yorubas dont even want Tinubu reelected but his shallow supporters will come online and be making it look like the whole of Nigeria is happy with Tinubu's abysmal performance and will troop out en masse to vote him in for a second tenure in 2027, anyway, time will tell sha

Tinubu will bury obi up North

franvincoop:
That possibility of an all out coalition can only happen if Tinubu miscalculates.
He has already miscalculated and is trying hard to retrace his steps.
Right now, only Tinubu can form an AtikuObi alliance by using the courts to either deregister NDC or prevent ADC from the ballot.
If Tinubu try am, he is OTP on election day.
If anything happens to NDC or ADC, the will collapse structures into each other.

If he allows, NDC and ADC to participate, the election will go to a 2nd round and AtikuObi coalition will still make Tinubu OTP in the 2nd round.

Emilokan sope Otilo

Obidients will rather vote Tinubu or stay at home so leave am. No way for your obi

franvincoop:
Bushmeat don finally catch hunter.
You see that North, that electoral well Tinubu fetched votes from in 2023, in 2027 we will all draw votes from that same well, then we will leave you be with your SW votes and balablu you in SS and SE and see how your kinsman will not be OTP with this same INEC.

Tinubu will win SS

Svoboda:
How many LGAs did Buharis CPC win before the 2011 presidential contest?

They won nasarawa state in 2011, almost won kaduna state, Bauchi state

Svoboda:
What ever Atiku loses in the south, he makes double in the north. Can the same be said of Tinubu in the north? Tinubu will haemorrhage votes in the north. Can he make up for them in the south? You think southerners will blindly vote out of sentiments? Even Tinubu lacks your kind of confidence?

Atiku is hemorrhaging votes up north already. If buhari failed to win with core north alone, how can Atiku? Listen to kwankwaso last interview

Nice2023:
The sentiments in the north here where I live is that,Tinubu is going home.

And there is nothing anyone can do.

If he rigs and the number does not tally with what is on ground,he is then demanding for fight.

Mark this my word again,Tinubu is going home.

Which part of the north and who are the voting

Svoboda:
How can we be importing and be exporting rice at the same time? Where are we even exporting the rice to? How many metric tonnes have been exported this year so far? You see why I said Tinubus policy on agriculture is ambiguous. On cocoa, what has the government really done? Has he created any buffer to protect cocoa farmers? He banned the export of shea butter because, according to his handlers, they want to industrialize Shea butter production in Nigeria.

Granted, Katsina adc has problems. How that is a plus for Tinubu and the problems in Niger APC aren't a plus for Atiku remains to be seen.

Oga, when I was talking about exports, I was referring to products where we had self sufficiency like Garri, cashew, Yam, oil palm and not rice where we struggle to meet local production. Even the rice, I know we still export to some few African countries just like we supply electricity to some...
Currently, the government is distributing 10 mil bag of fertilizers to 2 mil farmers. The bank of Agric has overloaded farmers with excess loans and grants. The Abia government this week implemented part of the FG farm policy to 17000 farmers.
Every defection, crisis or move is a plus and minus to a party's votes and strength. Apart from neutral and party voters, we have stakeholder voters who are tied to certain bigwigs. They dont vote independently. Mustapha Inuwa and Nafada are bigwigs with thousands of supporters. Losing them is a big loss except you don't understand politics.

Tinubu lost Katsina narrowly. Inuwa and the Katsina crisis might just be the difference in his victory. He won Niger handsomely. It will take a huge move for it to upturn. Same in Gombe but advantage Tinubu.... I believe you heard what kwankwaso said about Shettima being retained

Svoboda:
But he removed subsidy wholesale rather than gradually. When it comes to protecting our farmers it has to be gradually. Under Buhari, we were net rice producers because he was very much intentional. It was until Tinubu introduced his ill-timed neoliberal policies that prices began to shoot. How do you even increase output when you're deliberately putting local farmers out of competition? Tinubus agric policy is so ambiguous that his handlers are even struggling to string coherent words together.

Otti knows, just like every other SE gov seeking to job Tinubu, that he can't even guarantee 5% for Tinubu. Why should he decieve himself?

This is where wisdom comes in. You cannot apply same technique for every problem. It is not every subsidy or ban you remove wholesale or piecemeal. You do it depending on the exigencies. Oil subsidy has been removed piecemeal or gradually under GEJ and Obj but it failed. Again, govt was spending too much on subsidy and it was affecting our obligations and expenses. We needed that money for other obligations. It was strangulating the economy. Again, Dangote refinery was ready and had the capacity to cater for total local needs. So it had to go wholesale. Tinubu never removed import ban wholesale, it is in stages to allow local producers adapt. Government is not subsidizing local production so it can afford to take it slow. Again, imports is a source of revenue for government.
You are making the mistake buhari made. Production is different from exportation. Tinubu has commercialized the production process. Under buhari, we where just producing indiscriminately but now we are exporting what we produce. There is a deliberate export policy. We are the largest producers of yam but Ghana is the largest exporter. We used to be the highest in oil palm till Malaysia took over. We are now making money from production sir. Buhari focused mainly on rice. Tinubu has expanded the frontieres to cashew, cocoa, oil palm. Our non oil exports has ballooned for the first time in many years...

The powerful Mustapha Inuwa in Katsina is aggrieved and ready to defect. Atiku is losing grounds.

Bendeco02:
Be typing rubbish.

If vote count, you think Tinubu can win NC?

You think rigging will keep working permanently? That's the only thing that can cause this dellusion on somones's mindset.

Even a single vote from any region is important to politicians.

You're not politically wise as you thought.

He rigged last election and everyone kept calm after court ruling. 2027 no one is planning to go court again.

Shey 2027 is Next year, we shall see how it plays out.

Where in NC did Tinubu rig? So you think Niger, kwara, kogi will vote obi

mrvitalis:
Lmao
Igbos Vote who they want , Igbos don’t vote who is likely to win ,Igbos vote the best candidate who has a realistic chance

If Tinubu wins and goes on to kill Nigeria more Igbos would not contribute to that

We proudly rejected Buhari twice, we would reject Tinubu twice ,History would judge our political decisions

All 5 south East governors backed Tinubu in 2023 all none won their wards for him not a single one

Political structure works in south east if and only if their is no prepared candidate in 2027 there is an obvious Preferred candidate

Obi himself +Nnamdi Kalu kneeling and begging Igbos to vote Tinubu won’t get Tinubu 10% of votes

You lie, uzodinma won his ward. Ouk also

Svoboda:
Tinubu is doing well in agriculture by importing cheap grains to flood the market and leave hardworking farmers harmstrung and financially stranded?

Alex Otti just said what should be said.

Tinubu is correcting the mistakes buhari did by putting the cart before the horse. You don't just ban import wholesale, you do so gradually while giving time to local producers to increase output. The Nigerian market is very huge and vast for both local and imports. Infact most Nigerians now prefer local rice....

Me and you know Otti is pro Tinubu but because of the dicey situation he is, he cannot come out openly.

Svoboda:
Contractors working in the night is a good thing. I hope the myriad of other local contractors and their families being owed by Tinubus govt, whom he's refused to pay, despite several pleas even on national TV, are happy as well.

Ps. This isn't the first time contractors are working in the night in Nigeria. Nigeria didn't just come from the dark ages because Tinubu suddenly became president. Most of the jobs Julius Berger handled in Nigeria were done day and night. And I also wish Tinubu didn't roll back the huge gains Buhari recorded in the rail sector while he was in office.

In terms of road, rail buhari started are continuing under Tinubu. Even in agriculture, Tinubu is doing well. Solid minerals have expanded.
Massive protest in Adamawa ADC over the substitution of Omar Suleiman with Abdulrahman haske. All SE governors endorse Tinubu

MichaelSokoto:
Usual noise!

Obi will lose sir

HIGHESTPOPORI:
After Buhari,kwankwanso owns the north.The ss can't vote apc when they have NDC as their party.Even before elections start Obi have won Bayelsa already in

What did kwankwaso get in the north 2023 ? After winning Kano, where else did he get 25%? He failed even more than obi. Bayelsa won't make obi

slivertongue:
The APC’ north knows Tinubu's reelection is dead on arrival

Unfortunately, Atiku or obi is not an option so Tinubu ambition is a Go

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Peter Obi will sweep the whole SE and SS clean,the Ijaws that own NDC would vote more for him

He will lose SS this time oga. Then the north will bury him

Okoyeeboz:
Trading, not commerce. There is a difference.

Trading is part of commerce

Parachoko:
They are all a Composite Division

Before most of the Divisions focused on a particular warfare.

An example is the 3rd Division in Jos which was known as the 3rd Armoured Division before

True but under each divisions, they have specialty units like armour brigade, artillery battalion, reconnaissance unit, amphibious battalion

ManirBK:
But why do people from the East never want to join the Nigerian army when this restructuring always occurs

They prefer commerce. Can Tinubu win Kebbi

happney65:
Alli ko,sinbi ni. His defeat will be worst than APC's 2019 and 2023.

Senator Billboard. Ko da ni Ile,ko da ni oko

He has billboards at least what does Bimbo has? Alli did not contest in those years. The only thing that can save makinde is if Tinubu loses

happney65:
He will win the entire Oyo state and his candidates in the Senate and house of representatives too will. And bimbo too will win the Govorship

He is the most popular outgoing Govornor in the history of Oyo since 1999.

Before this time in 2018, Ajimobi had already lost all goodwill. Man could not even campaign with his then candidate Adelabu in the 2019 election

Go write it down. Go write it somewhere

I have written it down. Even if Makinde manages to win Oyo, it will be narrowly and his Guber candidate won't win. He has lost all goodwill. All those who supported him to win are now against him and will bury him. Who knows Adekanbi? Even Makinde is afraid of Alli.

happney65:
He can't defeat Tinubu. He is not running to win the presidency. He will only reduce tinubu's vote in the SW particularly in Oyo and Osun

Tinubu already knows this isn't 2023 and he has already lost Oyo and will lose osun again and Lagos will be another battleground

And that is why the attacks on Seyi is unimaginable.

If Tinubu cannot win his region hands down where else will he win?

P.S. Seyi and wike working for him in 2023 was what gave him the win. If he had lost Rivers and Oyo states,the election would have gone into runoff between Atiku and Obi and tinubu won't be in the picture and that is what is causing the current jittery

Another childish permutation. If you remove his votes from Oyo and rivers, he still led Atiku by over a million. Tinubu does not need to win his region well, he will get votes from everywhere something obi and Atiku cant. Makinde can only do well in Oyo not osun, adeleke won't even allow that sir. Oyo is 50 50. Most of the votes obi and Atiku would have gotten in Oyo and entire SW will go to makinde so it is good for Tinubu as it becomes wasted votes. Tinubu will take Lagos and osun this time. Sorry