₦airaland Forum

asfrank:
I'm not really counting on that, because these state have been traditionally PDP states. Winning is not guaranteed, getting more votes than 2023 is something I can bet on

I am not but atiku and pdphave been winning there narrowly which means with the governor defecting, APC might win. It is traditional for PDP at Guber level.

givedemwotowoto:
Why did only 6 million of Buhari's 12 million supporters vote for Tinubu?

What will make them vote for him this time if they didn't vote for him when Buhari told them to, after seeing him blame Buhari, and then fail more than Buhari?

Who told you 6 mil of buhari voters voted Tinubu? Does it not occur to you that some voted kwankwaso and Atiku? He never blamed buhari in any case. Nigerians will rather Tinubu finish his tenure than Atiku come with more wahalas

givedemwotowoto:
Buhari got 15 million votes in 2019, same as 2015. Tinubu contributed only about 2 million votes to that, meaning that’s the highest votes he can mobilize for himself and others.

In 2023, Tinubu got only 8 million votes even with the “he built Lagos” lies and hype. You know the rest 6 million votes came from half of Buhari supporters who listened to him to vote for Tinubu.

Question is, after seeing all his failures, what will make more people support him, that is, if he hasn’t lost many of the 6 million votes that came from Buhari?

If you think the governors defecting will save him, did Sanwo Olu being governor save him in Lagos in 2023?

You think vote-buying is going to automatically solve the problem? Vote buying works mostly when people don’t have a problem with you being their President.

A large number of people don't want atiku or obi

asfrank:
I see people here postulating that the north is not going to vote for Tinubu, same thing was said last year, untill he clinched the NW and performed well in the NE.
Tinubu is not banking on winning these zones, baby analyst here don't seem to understand simple logic. Some here take their personal grudge for the man to mean a general disapproval. I recall back in 2023, the theme was Buhari is not on the ballot, hence Tinubu won't get his votes. But he won in all North East states traditionally won by Buhari except for Bauchi, yobe and Gombe. Taraba and Adamawa has always gone the way of Atiku and it was no different. The States will most likely remain so, especially when he has people doing the ground work for him.
The North West similar patterns were observed. But the main thing you have to factor in is the difference between the winner and the 2nd. The largest margin Atiku won Tinubu with in any northern state came from Adamawa his home state, followed by Kaduna, Bauchi and Gombe. Anywhere else in the North where Atiku recorded victory the difference was less than 60k votes.

And these Large margin of his were easily swallowed up by vote difference from Kano, Lagos, and other SW states. AA didn't win any state in Southern Nigeria aside Osun, and yet again the margin was tight.

AA can't defeat Tinubu, Obi can't get votes in the North enough to defeat Tinubu even if they elites backs him. I'm saying this because the calculations don't favour a new Southern candidate. His best shot came in 2023 and it has passed.

With Taraba governor in APC, Tinubu might likely win there. With Fintiri pro Tinubu, Atiku votes in Adamawa will decrease. Tinubu will win Yobe this time. With Bala likely being on PDP ticket, Bauchi is divided. Atiku still has gombe..
Tinubu will still win north west. He will win sokoto, Kebbi, zamfara, Jigawa and will come close in kaduna

nairalanda1:
North is running away from tinubu. South east may support obi if he is on the ticket again, and southwest has always been problematic even for tinubu. Wike can act as a spoiler again if tinubu favors fubara over him

Yeah governors have defected , but defection doesn't mean votes.

North is not running away, it remains divided. Tinubu already has north central. Defections means votes in Nigeria if you have been following politics

Svoboda:
Everything about revenue generation last year was phantom. We had the deepest revenue shortfall last year in recent history. This is to the extent that the candid revelation by the finance minister has elicited him being sidelined, while 2 budget years have been cancelled already.

Tinubu should just be praying that 2027 elections should record a low voter turnout so he can rig in the south. If not, he realistically has no pathway to victory.

He has SW, ss and NC and parts of core north. Atiku and obi have no pathway

NewHe:
What a wonderful tournament 5 of the 8 quarter finalists are west African teams!

Cameroun isn't west Africa

rolams:
You didn't get my point. Abe can't contest against Fubara again. That's minus one of those who are in Wike's camp that can contest against Fubara. I believe President Tinubu will give Wike men more positions in order to grant Fubara the second term slot.

Wike was never going to consider Abe as governor na, Abe is strong and independent minded like himself, he needs a yes boy and a core loyallist

rolams:
Ok.

I believe the thank you from Magnus settled it

Danelo:
I laugh in Taiwan....

Person wey steal mandate

From who? Who was winning

BeginsAtHome:
Which of the South-South e win?
Mark my word, BAT will lose Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta states in 2027.

Edo will be slightly won, Akwa Ibom and Cross rivers are his.

It is only Edo and delta he can lose narrowly

rolams:
Tinubu is giving power to other people in rivers state to tackle/weaken Wike.

Oga sir, Magnus and Wike are allies. Kenneth kobani is Wike man

southsouthking:
Wike won't be comfortable with this appointment.

Is it not obvious that Wike nominated him and Kenneth kobani

Educationalserv:
yarns you think you can ambush our psychology
Defeating Tinibu is a patriotic duty of all reasonable citizens

Majority still prefer Tinubu

Educationalserv:
hogwash points .
They don't like who are the 22m citizens that voted for them

Tinubu cannot be defeated

Educationalserv:
List 3 reasons why he will get 30 percent in Northwest and 25 percent in the south east !
We have over 10 Major reason why he deserves zero .
Nepotism and yorubaization
Hyper Inflation
Insecurity
US Conviction
Cost of living Crisis
Baised infrastructural development of Northern Nigeria.
One party state intention
Devaluation of naira
Removals of subsides
Corruption

I believe the 2023 elections and 2019 polls showed you the above factors don't matter much. Nigerians may not like Tinubu but they dont like Atiku or obi either. A larger number of voters will prefer Tinubu finish his tenure

mrvitalis:
Tinubu can't rig core North, can't right South East... That's 3 zones he can't manipulate

South South ADC have people to protect their votes
Middle belt same

South West is the only Place Tinubu can manipulate

ADC in SS does not have what it takes to match Tinubu, he will smother them. Tinubu will overrun kwara, kogi, benue, plateau, sokoto.

ElevationD:
Only watch and see!

Edo election should have taught you a lesson sir. You are not good in politics, comot body. Tinubu has rivers overwhelmingly and a chunk of delta. Sheriff has no opponent, rivers governor will still come from fubara/ wike axis

Educationalserv:
The entire votes from the Southwest has been in range of 2.3m to 2.7m all for Buhari and Tinibu this a reoccurring decimal it will not change .this the only sure banker for Tinibu (Block votes ) Now Makinde a Fellow Yoruba will Appeal more to younger voters from the Southwest only ...for Bala Mohammed he cannot get 100k votes in his Bauchi and the entire North .So Makinde is cutting of Tinibu 2.5m voters in his yoruba enclaves .

All the 6.8m that voted Atiku are still rebellious against Tinibu and APC
Additional Tinibu 5.8M from the North that proper his to presidency is gone based on poor performance and tribalist.the Muslim Muslim manipulation is gone ..this votes are going to ADC and Atiku ( 4m )
The Kwakwaso spoiler of 1.4m from the North is going to Atiku/ADC
Makinde is a Spoiler for Tinibu like Kwakwaso was a Spoiler for Atiku .
The south eastern vote of 3 Million is going to obi .if this can be fused to ADC ( Atiku obi tickets) is bye bye Tinibu .
It will be 14m votes similar to buhari winning strategy.North brining in 10m +4m from south eastern.
From the south South Tinibu can only get 2m Max then few votes of 1m from Central
Total 6m

You did this nonsensical permutation in 2023 and failed woefully. Tinubu has gained new voters in the north central, South south and even north east. The kwankwaso votes will remain with kwankwaso or scatter like buhari votes. Atiku took a distant third in Kano which means Kano voters dislike him so nothing for him. It is a walkover for Tinubu

Franking:
Thw difference being that PDP won all their states then at the polls while the APC bullied many of the governors into joining them.

You lie. PDP rigged majority of those states and several governors where bullied to join

Gaabasky:
They are afraid of their shadows that's why they are decamping. The only strong and viable opposition leader he is currently in the opposition party and his name is Wike.
The others are just opportunistic waiting from the crumbles from Atiku's table to feast and the remnant ones are obidients those people hmmm.

What is your permutations for sokoto and zamfara

AMINDA:
Madugu is coming. Tinubu, finish what you started by conceding that V.P ticket now or have yourself to blame!

He will betray Atiku just like in 2019

AMINDA:
Were you not aware of his demands previously? Why now pretend? Same you that celebrated the sacking of Ganduje and the viability of the Tinubu/Kwankwaso ticket on here? Everybody knows Tinubu was gearing up to betray Shettima and replace him with Kwankwaso but folded when Shettima and the APC Northeast bloc revolted. Same way he will fold up on Fubara by ditching him for Wike.



Yes. He's setting the tone for the betrayal narrative that will further sink Tinubu in the North. Why else did you think Tinubu panicked and quickly postponed Abba's defection so he can beg Kwankwaso some more? Make no mistakes, Tinubu will be offering him that V.P ticket. Desperado has no choice. ADC's winning strategy have already factored the possibility of a Tinubu/Kwankwaso ticket. The party is not dying to have him in their ranks but he will be a monumental addition. It's Tinubu who desperately needs him.

https://www.nairaland.com/8592443/kano-governor-abba-yusuf-postpones

Tinubu is playing the best of politics, Atiku your oga is mumuing around. Look at how Tinubu is tearing the northern politics. He will bury Atiku

Penguin2:
That tells you he’s ready to become running mate to Peter Obi.

Tell Tinubu to pack his bags.

Lol, outside Kano, no one knows him

dalongjnr:
A fraudster former governor who laundered and steal his state funds with receipts attached,is shamelessly trying to contest for a national assembly seat?
What a shame 🫠 😔!
Nigeria 🇳🇬 is finished and full of shamelessly corrupt leaders.
I now know that EFCC is a tool of political witch hunting.

Now that muftwang has joined APC, Tinubu will clear plateau. Atiku won't see 25%

AMINDA:
Yes. Which is why she had no use for Akpabio and Tinubu.

Natasha will defeat Yahaya Bello again and have him laid out flat on the ground. He's merely contesting to whitewash his EFCC indictment, having pledged allegiance to Tinubu and getting the transactional man's "forgiveness".

You clearly don't know politics. Bello will humiliate her

AMINDA:
Well, that divisive style of politics will cost Tinubu this time because it has been overplayed. The much touted support by both Wike and Fubara is just window-dressing as they are both doing it just to curry federal favour. Deep down, the people of Rivers are still angry with Tinubu and only massive rigging can make him win the state with substantial votes. Ditching Fubara will also cost him huge political capital but it will be his only choice, given the circumstances.

Atiku will be buried in rivers sir

ElevationD:
His overconfidence is his destruction.

He seemed to have forgotten that he has an axe to grind with the supporters of Peter Obi, who were cheated at the polls in the last elections. He seemed to have forgotten that the same man will be on the ballot in Rivers state in 2027. Aside from facing Fubara at the primaries, he will be facing ADC in Rivers state in 2027. ADC is more formidable than LP. He should be told that his political destruction does not lie only in Fubara’s hands. Whoever Wike chooses may not go down well with other candidates. Magnus Abe for one is eyeing the seat. Amaewhule is definitely eyeing the seat. Tonye Cole who also eyes the seat, stands on the court decision and claims to be the leader of the other faction of APC. Infact, if there’s no settlement, the entire APC process would be truncated even after an unlikely victory.

On the eve of the 2023 elections, Wike employed 200,000 SAs with the intention of ensuring that they all voted to at least secure their votes. Rivers state which normally would deliver well over one million votes, fell far short. I am certain that 2027 will see a different Rivers state at the polls, with the entrance of ADC.

Wike’s excesses will finally be his achilles heel at the next elections. Most citizens who loved him have turned to dislike his arrogant disposition.

I expect Wike/APC to be defeated in 2027, just as I believe that Sheriff/Ibori/Okowa/APC will be defeated in Delta state in 2027.

Who will defeat Wike and Apc in rivers? Which reasonable rivers person is in ADC? Was ADC more formidable than PDP in 2023? ADC is dead on arrival. If Atiku is flying ADC flag, expect a massacre in both delta and rivers. Only obi can make a headway narrowly

greatman247:
Dey play. They are mostly joining APC due to the fact that APC is the ruling party and currently on board and scared of prosecution, not because APC is better or special than other parties. If the table turns they will prefer to also join ADC.

To cut the long talk, remember no permanent friend or enemy in politics. Politicians often look at highest bidder and what or party than can offer them the benefits they deserve. Currently it's APC reason why they are joining. Table will turn in 2027 and you will see a new waves of change then

They will be no table turning sir. ADC cannot offer them anything, ADC is a useless party. Tinubu will easily win his reelection. Better look at 2031

greatman247:
Nevermind, the Kano state gov that defected to the APC now will on the long run go back to ADC close to 2027. This is politics. It's not the party that most of them defected to now that matters. Some of the govs that went to Apc now will in the long run go to ADC when it's so close to 2027. Most of them are confused souls now they will realize their mistakes at the last minute.

Nothing like that, stop playing emotional politics. No governor cares about ADC, Atiku or obi. An average politician will rather prefer to work with Tinubu. Your ADC is dead in arrival

Saladdin:
It'll be a big bonus. I really want Madugu to make my day by decamping to the ADC. It'll be a 3-to-1 scenario, let's see how the structureless governors want to win.

They'll so beat Tinubu at the polls like a Bata Drum.

How will that be? Kano will be divided between Tinubu and atiku. There's nothing stopping Tinubu's victory

longayink:
Pair Obi/Tambuwal for ADC presidential ticket. That's enough to quit APC from Aso Rock.

Tambuwal will even lose sokoto