₦airaland Forum

slivertongue:
The North central is a complex and slippery zone. There is no bloc vote. Entities within the geopolitical zone choose their path. The north central is home to Nigerians from the other five zones. Thirty percent of the people living in NC are not natives of the area so their solidarity is with their kins.

I agree but it will be like 2023 with Atiku coming third. Atiku can only win north east

Ofunaofu:
Divided with Tinubu? Oga, wake up, this is not 2023 anymore. Buhari is no more, El-Rufai has practically become Tinubu’s political prisoner, and Tinubu is now standing on his own record. There's no more, he built Lagos from scratch and tamed the Atlantic ocean propaganda to sell.

As president, has performed abysmally, woefully and spectacularly poor. No mass appeal, currently the most unpopular among the major presidential contenders.

The only things keeping him afloat are incumbency power, access to the national treasury, looted funds, and endless borrowed funds.

We already discussed this before. Most of the top politicians up north are in APC

slivertongue:
Spread is still important over highest votes without spread. At least 50% of Northern votes would go for Atiku. The south may end up the battle ground.

Atiku has lost north central to Tinubu. He can only win 50% of core north. Tinubu will beat him overall

Ofunaofu:
Absolutely

Come 2027 he will be inheriting Buhari's 12 million northern votes

He will never, only a radical wil. The votes remain divided

koning:
Osoba has just confirmed that Tinubu cannot win in 2027 through genuine ballot.

If the Southern votes are split in 2 or 3 ways, and the North has vowed never to vote for Tinubu again, how then can he win.

We cannot see any real pathway for an APC victory in the presidential elections. Unless of course it's rigged.

The 2027 election may be a "HUNG" election.

Tinubu will win SW, SS, NC and divide nw

franchasng:
Atiku was the person that messed up the coalition....he is too prideful and tactless.

But still, all hope is not lost....Tinubu have no pathway to winning in 2027.


Northern Nigeria will vote massively for Atiku....then Tinubu's power of incumbency will help him secure 25% in some Northern states....Peter Ob will get some through Kwankwaso and persecuted Northern Christians.


In the South, the votes will be heavily divided with Peter Obi taking the greater share of Southeast, Southsouth and Tinubu winning more in Southwest.....Atiku will manage to secure 25% in some Southern states and at the end, Atiku or Obi will score highest votes.......Tinubu is a goner for real....he messed up big time......his tribalism and division of Nigeria along ethnic lines was so bad and visible even to the blind, Tinubu must not be allowed to return if not Nigeria will be in very big trouble!!

Atiku will not score 25% in any southern state. Tinubu will win the north

franchasng:
They will keep wasting their time on hating and attacking Peter Obi and Atiku will win the 2027 Presidential election landslide, which is still very good....anybody but Tinubu is the motto for 2027 Presidential election!

Anybody but Atiku is the motto

Moroccoguy:
He will win

He won't, he isn't popular enough

Svoboda:
Only Atiku can fight Tinubu pound for pound.

True but to no avail

Chris225:
How did someone who got 8 million in 2023 general election. Get almost 11 million in primary election of a party

Miracles of APC 😒

Support simply increased

fergie001:
I think he deserved it but Osifo should petition.
He was robbed with irregular counting but I like his gesture as a good party man.

It was an excruciating Primary of the very unpopular incumbent

Unbecoming statements. How popular are the opposition

Svoboda:
Not just Niger, even Kebbi. Adc sai Atiku!!

Sai Amechi. Atiku has no chance in Niger, Tinubu will bury him

ozo13:
kebbi Fulani is more than Hausas I learnt with some few other tribes like zabarmawa in which some quarters are saying malami is.

I thought it's just Aliero and jega that's fulani

ozo13:
yeah.i think it was a 40/60% thing.and a lot of money flew around then from both APC and PDP.Atiku May likely still win in Kebbi here because of ethnicity.

I agree. I like your analysis. But Atiku is Fulani and Kebbi is dominated by hsusas. I think the Guber will be tough as Malami might pose a challenge to Nasir idris

ozo13:
Atiku will win definitely like it was in 2023.
But likely the current governor will likely win his reelection packages here because this is one state fund mobilization can easily win an election.

I think Atiku won in 2023 because of Adamu Aliero and now Aliero is in APC. Don't forget Atiku won narrowly

runningriot:
If political analysis and commentary is your specialty then we have lost it advicely, you have a long way to go in your career. As a pundit you don't judge with emotions, use cognitive bias, sentiments, and be subjective. At all cost be a verifier, preferably always go to places and scene to have first hand information before going to the public to make submissions. Apparently, bro this is a free advice at least take it to the bank and thank me latter. With these corrections you will not end up like Reno Omokri and his likes. However, I am putting it to you today go to Nasarawa state and ask questions wether there was APC primary elections or not bro there was never APC primary elections in Nasarawa state from the least house of Assembly to the President and the worst of it was the Governor's primary elections with Silas Agara as well Sen. Wadada and IG Adamu on governorship primary elections these elections were not only rigged but cooked and manufactured from Governor AA Sule's parlour. I am not exaggerating like the process was merged with irregularities, elections banditry, intimidation and sensational harassment of APC electorates. Boss, abeg ask questions preferably go to Nasarawa and do independent research or visit Nasarawa social media pages and see people's comments. To nail the coffin bro one on one with how IG Adamu is loved by APC members Wadada can't come close in a level playing ground of that primary. Finally go and verify at least the former Governor of Nasarawa State Tanko Almakura mande a video about this. Thanks and God bless you!

Focus on Ombugadu. Who loves IGP Adamu that is just coming in? Has he ever won an election? Focus on your party and leave APC

runningriot:
Brother don't speak with such confidence if you have not verified news or have facts this is how to speak and win argument in a public space David is aspiring for governor under Wike factional PDP. As a public commentator you need to speak with facts they issue of governor been zone to Nasarawa West is a gentleman agreement and not constitutional. Haven't say that, don't make presumption if you if you are not in Nasarawa state ask questions. Umbuguadu is vying for governor and not longer senate check Nasarawa political media handle especially on social media specifically, Nasarawa mirror on Facebook and verify my news he seeking the position in PDP if you are afraid of him to be on the ballot so as Wadada can have an easy ride News flash he is on ballot come 2027 and what Gov. AA Sule can't do for himself by winning the last election he can't equally rescue Wada from Umbuguadu's defeat. On zoning to Nasarawa West that has been the traditional of the state for inclusive governance throughout the state indeed APC zone it to the west but PDP and some party didn't conclusively. And the message is Umbuguadu...

If Ombugadu can't win an unpopular Sule, how will he win a popular Wada?

GeneralOuki:
Tinubu is far worse than Buhari and he didn't get up to 25% when he still had the benefit of doubts, it is now that everyone knows how much of a failure he is that he will get more votes in SE? You dey whine yourself.
Bedside, Buhari contested against Atiku and Jonathan when he got that 25%, he would never have got anywhere near that if he contested against Obi and that's why Tinubu will fail no matter the level of rigging Hope tries. In SE we don't worship political leaders like they do in other places, especially a political leader who is known to be underperforming. Hope who spends most of his time in Abuja is going to win 25 % for Tinubu?

Sorry how did hope win his reelection again? While Tinubu lost imo, APC cleared nasss seats. Hope in 2023 primary supported lawan

GeneralOuki:
He got highest vote in SE from IMO State and yet didn't crack 25% despite having the full APC control of the state and with a much favourable economic realities then. People were not too certain about how he would rule so a couple of people turned up for him.

This time around everyone now knows that Tinubu is indeed a bad market and less people are going to keen to see him continue as president. It doesn't matter whether Hope / MBA are on the ballot or not, Tinubu will lose badly in Enugu and Imo.

Buhari got 25% in imo and two other SE states in 2019 despite his bad performance. Obi votes will reduce sir. You already know how hope operates so forget it

ozo13:
leave them to be deceiving themselves.for this Kebbi I dey I never see any OK campaign poster here either in the villages or In the state capital

Who do you think will win Kebbi between Tinubu and atiku

GeneralOuki:
those who are who were in APC in IMO State and Tinubu didn't see 25% in that state, and that was when things were a bit better. Now that everyone is feeling the effects of Tinubu's bad governance, less people are going to vote for him.

Forget whatever promises Mba is giving to Tinubu, even he knows that he can't. Guarantee success for APC in Enugu.

Imo gave Tinubu the highest votes in SE 2023.
Uzodinma will be on the ballot so expect heavy votes for Tinubu from orlu zone just as rochas did for buhari. Buhari performance in 2015 was better than 2019 so shall Tinubu's

Sheuns:
Na so Buhari poll millions of votes in their 2018 APC primaries. When elections came those places he polled those large votes didn’t give him a fraction of the vote in his primaries.

But he still humiliated Atiku

SlavaUkraini:
Jagaban will defeat Atiku in Adamawa. ?

Una too like to joke...

Atiku may lose everywhere, but not in Adamawa to an unpopular President...

He will win Adamawa narrowly

GeneralOuki:
It will be like last time, or even worse this time around. Don't be deceived by the manipulated numbers coming out in this primary

It won't be. All the who is who in Enugu are in APC. Getting 25% won't be a problem

GeneralOuki:
He's doing well in Enugu and deserves a second term to continue with his work. Whatever party that holds the governorship position in Enugu is not going to stop Tinubu from losing in that state.

Tinubu will get 25% at least

Unigrad:
This is a strategy to justify the rigging.
How many of these persons have APC membership card?
Majority are rented crowd.

But you saw them waving APC membership card. Obi will be humiliated again

abiolert:
There is no way in Edo State that they will have that type of numbers, haba!

He had more than that in 2023

runningriot:
Na so they cooked 2023 governorship elections e reach their turn dem dey seek for justice. What comes around goes around as in no election was held in the APC primary elections in Nasarawa state than cooked and manufactured results. But we want to see our enemies camp scattered it is a goal for Umbuguadu come 2027 on a norms put together both IG and Wadada can't stand David if not rigging and election banditry we know what happened in 2023 but thank God 2027 will be different!

David is going for senate sir under pdp
Assuming he is going for Guber, it is the turn of nasarawa west

runningriot:
As you lie now wetin you gain?

What is the truth? Who can win Wadada