₦airaland Forum

onatisi:
this means that oyo state is out of apc hands in 2027 presidential election ,this is the best political move . now he will contest for presidential , he knows he will lose bbut he will wn his state , his party will win senatorial and others , that will secure his political future . tinubu did the same thing in 2003



,

What if he loses all

dalongjnr:
One of the best lawmaker plateau state have ever had.
Pankshin, kanam, kanke is well represented with the presence of yusuf babayo gagdi.
The best lawmaker in plateau state state, so far, so good.

But he has overstayed his welcome., him and Hon Wase. He usually wins because of Kanam bloc votes

MEGA4BILLION:
Yari that he ditched to make Akpabio senate president

He never ditched Yari, Akpabio has always been his choice

Aiel123:
Atiku winning 3 SS is a pointer that Tinubu can even win the SS
There's still a good fraction of PDP structure up north,Kwara,Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina,Taraba mostly aligned with Wike group. The realization just hit now apart from Makinde himself there's no heavyweight in his group, except for Jang
The results will still go regionally
Only Tinubu would get substantial votes in all region (except SE)

True Saraki has left atiku in kwara, Lamido has also abandoned him but ADC has been bolstered by the entrance of senator Nakudu. Atiku will narrowly win kaduna...most of the former pdp in Katsina from Shema, majigiri, mangal have all joined APC except baba kaita. All the who is who in Taraba except Darius isyaku are in APC. Atiku is only sure of Adamawa and Gombe. But even that Adamawa, his votes will reduce via Binani and Fintiri

Sugarboyy:
I never said it was held same day
Was only saying most of these emergency lovers of Tinubu, including Hope secretly worked against Tinubu or didn't just enough for him in the last election

Tinubu had 60k votes in Imo the highest in any SE.

RoxyBrownAutos:
I think Hope Uzodinma tenure will expire in 2028,why is he picking senatorial nomination form.May be he may resign as IMO state governor before 2027.

He will resign may 2027

Sugarboyy:
Don't mind them, with all the praises on hope by them, hope couldn't give Tinubu 25% votes in Imo state in the last election but when it got to his own election, he won convincingly. They think Tinubu doesn't know them and they are only flocking round him because he is the president. Let Obi or Atiku win 2027 election and let's see if within 6 months hope won't defect to the newest party in power. But Oshiomhole can never defect

The elections where held on different days

Wickedtruths:
Hope knows how to use power.
The President will not allow someone like that control the Senate.
That's the mistake them Buhari and Oyegun made with Saraki.

Exactly. He won't be a lame duck SP

Hedonisco:
Man is extremely dangerous. I'm not a fan of his or anything APC, but I know enough to know how dangerous this Hopeless man is.

Someone like Wike has more money to throw around, but in the real scheme of things, in the entire Southern Nigeria, Hopeless has no match - apart from the Satan-in-Chief himself currently occupying Aso Rock - as far as this demonic kind of power politics is concerned.

Only God will deliver Nigeria from these people.

The most ruthless politicians are in APC. Opposition are just wasting their time

LegendHero:
Then why he no canvass for Asiwaju to even have ordinary 25% votes in the 2023 presidential election in Imo state?

A politician value is the votes he brings. If they can win for themselves and not even guarantee 25% for the center, then their use of sagacity is useless to the party.

It is easier for a governor or politician to churn votes for the president if he is on the ballot same day with president. Rochas in 2015 couldn't secure 25% but he did that for buhari in 2023 when he contested for senate

fergie001:
Then, you will explain why Uzodinma will forfeit Governorship seat to go to Senate.

It is a gamble plus his tenure will soon finish

Aiel123:
Weren't Obi and Tinubu on the ballot when Atiku polled those votes in the south
PDP faction under Turaki aren't in support of Tinubu, and Adc seems like an offshoot from PDP faction aligned with Makinde in the south
While I have reservations with your analysis,you did good
Adc is structureless in Bayelsea
Akwa Ibom,Sen. John can't really pull much
I think he was the sole reason why Kwankwanso got 7k votes in 2023,his highest in the SS
Only Amaechi can deliver maybe 15-20%
SE,I think you underated ADC showing in Abia and inflated it too much in Enugu
As things stand now, there's no pathway for the opposition

You are right. Without Obi, ADC is dead in SE. The makinde faction won't do much as Bala has defected and they don't have that push and force Wike faction has. Is Amechi is running mate, they can get 25% in rivers and nothing more...
Atiku won three southern states in 2023 and these was because they had PDP governors. ADC is far weaker than pdp of 2024

fergie001:
Osita and Hope are from the same Zone.

I forgot. Who is replacing Ekomaru

fergie001:
Hope isn't a first-timer.
He was a Senator from 2011-2019

I'll prefer Osita Izunaso or OUK.

fergie001:
President - SW
Vice President - NE
Senate President - SE....
Deputy Senate President - NC/NW
Speaker - NW
Deputy Speaker - SS

This is APC formula (Akpabio bye bye)

Not t yet. Akpabio will be returned. He has more to offer than Hope

ddippset:
However you try to spin it;;

Obi/Kwonkwoso is an upgrade on Obi/Datti of 2023.

So continue wailing.
😂😂

I agree but they will still lose

Nairalander248:
Your mind

What's on yours

Nairalander248:
Just went straight to Kano and Lagos to see what you are twisting...

Lagos that Obi won and Kano that K from OK is from? How much is food for your area, let me know and send your aza so you can go and eat

Obi on his own had less than 5% in Kano. Kwankwasiyya will only vote kwankwaso as president.obi won Lagos by 9000 votes. Common sense should tell you that he can't win it again

seunmsg:
Lol. Those guys can't deliver 5% of the total vote cast in their states for Atiku when Bola Tinubu and Peter Obi are on the ballot. The PDP structure worked for Atiku in 2023. In 2027, those structures have been merged into the APC structure.

You are largely right

sonofthunder:
You are so incoherent that you cannot pass your point across without spilling insults.

And you think you will convince anyone like this?

I have met many South South people that said they aren't voting Obi. They always keep quiet to avoid bullying from toxic folks like you hence you never get the opportunity to convince them.

Continue your good work sir

You have said it all

seunmsg:
He was too nice to Atiku in the south. I doubt if Atiku can get up to 10% in any southern state. The only exception may be the state of his running mate. ADC has no structure in any southern state as at today.

ADC has a strong structure in Cross River Lee by ex governor Liyel Imoke, Akwa ibom by John Akpanudoedehe and Edo by Oyegun

yemmit90:
You are still using 2023 to determine your prediction.

One thing is certain, the incumbent will rig massively in Lagos and Rivers to nullify whatever the millions votes any opposition could get elsewhere. It is also very certain they will get at least 30% from all South east states through the help of their governors. And if you think a governor can't deliver 30% votes with federal backing,then you don't have business with political discussion. They will definitely win Abuja this time around too, win south west, south south and North Central with a very wide margins. They will also secured 40% from North west and appropriate 45% from North East.

The reality we don't want to accept or pretended doesn't matter is that, APC is too big to lose to fragments oppositions. Masses are just an instruments on elections days, politicians determine who wins and not ordinary masses. The only viable way to win election in this part of the world is to have formidable machineries to work for you on election days. While an inexperience politician still hoping on average person like me or you, a single chancellor would've convince 50 people to vote for his/her candidates. The funniest thing is that, the same people will be among those abusing his candidate.

Atiku/Obi ticket would've a little bit matched the same energy but the experience incumbent party has successfully lure Obi away to slipt opposition votes. If you think they don't know about NDC or it quick approval and formations or Kwankwaso moves, you are only being ignorant.

I agree with you, I am just being modest to the opposition

AMINDA:
You will have to redo your permutations. Jonathan is entering the race to contest under PDP tomorrow. The only reason Tinubu tolerated all Wike's excesses as he went about courting unnecessary enemies for the president was to prevent this outcome.

For now, he hasn't entered. I am glad you accepted by analysis

SOUTH SOUTH:
Cross river
Tinubu 45% Obi 40% Atiku 15%

Akwa ibom
Tinubu 50% Obi 35% Atiku 15%

Rivers
Tinubu 60% Obi 30% Atiku 10%

Delta
Tinubu 30% Obi 60% Atiku 10%

Edo
Tinubu 40% Obi 55% Atiku 5%

Bayelsa
Tinubu 50% Obi 35% Atiku 15%


SOUTH EAST
Anambra
Tinubu 10% Obi 89% Atiku 1%

Enugu
Tinubu 25% Obi 65% Atiku 10%

Abia
Tinubu 15% Obi 80% Atiku 5%

Imo
Tinubu 20% Obi 70% Atiku 10%

Ebonyi
Tinubu 20% Atiku 78% 2%

SOUTH WEST
Lagos
Tinubu 50% Obi 45% Atiku 5%

Ogun
Tinubu 70% Atiku 20% Obi 10%

Ondo
Tinubu 75% Obi 15% Atiku 10%

Osun
Tinubu 55% Atiku 35% Obi 10%

Ekiti
Tinubu 70% Atiku 22% Obi 8%

Oyo
Tinubu 50% Obi 20% Atiku 30%

NORTH CENTRAL
Kwara
Tinubu 60% Obi 10% ATIKU 30%

NIGER
Tinubu 50% Obi 15% Atiku 35%

Nasarawa
Tinubu 40% Obi 40% Atiku 20%

Kogi
Tinubu 50% Obi 15% Atiku 35%

Benue
Tinubu 45% Obi 40% Atiku 15%

Plateau
Tinubu 35% Obi 50% Atiku 15%

Fct
Tinubu 30% Obi 55% Atiku 15%

NORTH WEST
Sokoto
Tinubu 50% Atiku 43% Obi 7%

Kebbi
Tinubu 45% Obi 10% Atiku 45%

Zamfara
Tinubu 55% Obi 5% Atiku 40%

Katsina
Tinubu 50% Obi 5% Atiku 45%

Kano
Tinubu 40% Obi 40% Atiku 20%

Kaduna
Tinubu 35% Obi 20% Atiku 45%

Jigawa
Tinubu 50% Obi 10% Atiku 40%

NORTH EAST
Borno
Tinubu 60% Obi 5% Atiku 35%

Yobe
Tinubu 55% Obi 5% Atiku 40%

Bauchi
Tinubu 40% Obi 10% Atiku 50%

Gombe
Tinubu 35% Obi 15% Atiku 50%

Taraba
Tinubu 40% Obi 30% Atiku 30%

Adamawa
Tinubu 25% Obi 15% Atiku 60%

ukaface:
This just made my night

Two of my faves won
Uzor and Bucci

I don't like Uzor, I prefer sambasa Nzeribe

kinzd:
Have we all ask ourselves this question why was 2023 Election results announced by odd hours of 4am What APC cannot destroy doesn't exist

What is your problem? Is there any law that forbids them from announcing it at that time

AMINDA:
You didn't vote for him in 2023, yet he got 6.9m votes. In that election, his fellow Northerners still managed to give Tinubu 5.6m votes. Go figure! If you hate Atiku that much, you're better off voting Tinubu than wasting your votes. We also know you're about to hate Kwankwaso soon when he refuses to deputise your messiah.

In continuation of our earlier discussion, additionally atiku has gotten weaker in the north compared to 2023. He had governors but now has none. In Adamawa, the popular Binani and Abbo has dumped ADC and many of their supporters won't vote Atiku. With Fintiri in APC,many non fulanis won't vote Atiku. If he wins Adamawa, it won't be up to 200k. In Taraba, the governor has decamped. Atiku winning votes usually comes from Jukun dominated areas of Takum, Donga and Wukari but this is lost to Tinubu so Atiku will lose here. All the who is who are in APC. Atiku will still win Gombe since it is Fulani dominated, nothing has changed.
For Bauchi, the defection of Gov Bala will reduce Atiku's vote tally. The defection of Sadiq Abubakar a mole is a relief for APC. For Borno, Tinubu will win with a landslide. The infighting that caused Atiku to win Yobe has been settled. Buni who secretly worked for Atiku has been called to order. The Kanuris across Borno Yobe are united for Tinubu..

Eba50:
If Jonathan enters d race, the whole 11 east and south states will vote him.APC won't get 5% votes.damn Joe is d weak link here o. The north won't vote APC. Tinuboooo is gone

What of atiku and your obi

AMINDA:
Maybe you should look at the 2023 numbers again. I just told you the North went all out to vote Tinubu in that election. The atmosphere heading into 2023 is no longer the same. If Tinubu fails to win the South in a landslide and scrap margins from the North like other previous Southern presidents did in the past, he will not get the highest number of votes cast. Atiku will. Tinubu will get the spread but may not get the highest votes. Atiku will get the highest votes cast but may not get the spread. This will then throw the election into a run-off. With rumours of Jonathan entering the race, Tinubu's chances are further complicated.

You are getting confused by 2023 numbers. You should study the figures from 1999 or at least from 2015 to get a better understanding. You clearly do not understand electoral maths and people like you end up deceiving Atiku. The dynamics have changed for all candidates. Atiku cannot get a landslide in the north against Tinubu, he is too weak to do that and Tinubu is too strong even if he is unpopular, Atiku is not popular enough to pull it off...

Tinubu may not win the south in a landslide against Obi but he will do so against Atiku, is that too hard to comprehend? Let's say Tinubu gets 4.5 mil in the south, obi 4 mil, Atiku 500k. That's a landslide against Atiku. Atiku gets 5 mil in the north, Tinubu 3.5 mil, he has scrapped significant margins up north. Atiku wins the north but overall Tinubu wins. Why is it hard for you to grasp this?

Gej is not going to contest sir. If he did, it will reduce Tinubu chances and if obi pairs with Atiku, it reduce Tinubu chances. As it stands game over for Atiku

AMINDA:
Buhari couldn't win because it was always a two-horse race with his opponents always winning the entire South and Christian North/Middlebelt. With a three-horse race, Tinubu won with the lowest margin of votes ever and 65% of those votes had to come from the North. He lost the entire South, including Lagos, and won in only 4 Southwestern states. With Obi in the race, Tinubu still can't lay claim to the Southern votes as at today. If he repeats the muslim-muslim ticket, a substantial part of the middlebelt will still prefer to vote Obi. So where will his bloc votes come from?

He lost it because he failed colossally in the other 4 regions. You are making the same mistake obidients make. They thought Tinubu, kwankwaso and atiku will share core north votes making it useless but they forgot that of Obi does not score significant votes in the core north, it will affect his overall tally. For instance Atiku got 288k in sokoto, Tinubu got 285k while obi got 5k. Obi lost but this damaged obi. This Tinubu vote in sokoto cancelled obi's winning in Ebonyi. Across the 17 southern states, Atiku will lose colossally. Any state Tinubu loses, he will trash Atiku there( Atiku will come a distant third) which will offset Atiku vote in a core northern state. For instance Tinubu lost Lagos but beat Atiku there by over 400k. This cancelled atiku winning in Adamawa and Kaduna. Atiku highest margin was in Adamawa yet tinubu got 25% there. Can you see how Tinubu is strong and how useless your Atiku is? Tinubu got 25% in all the 19 northern states. Infact Tinubu is beating atiku in the 6 north central states. This margin is insurmountable....

In summary, presidential elections is about margins and spread not number of states victories. Tinubu looks at the margins. No matter the votes Atiku gets in the core northern 11 states, it will never be up to the one buhari got in 2011 and 2003. Infact, Atiku can't win all the 11 core north states, Tinubu is sure if winning zamfara and Borno and perhaps sokoto, Jigawa. He will still trash Atiku in Kano. There is no pathway for Atiku except he finds a way like buhari to win north central

AMINDA:
With low votes in the South, Tinubu's margins over Atiku was less than 1.5m. This was in 2023 when Northerners actually campaigned with their full might for Tinubu against their son, Atiku. You didn't answer the question. Has Tinubu gotten more popular in the North? If he hasn't, who has he lost part of his Northern votes to? Atiku came a close second without Southern votes, Tinubu got 65% of his total votes from the North. Do the maths.

Tinubu has gotten more popular in north central. Nothing has changed in core north. If a whole Buhari couldn't win with just north east and north west, Small Atiku cannot sir. There is no pathway for Atiku.