₦airaland Forum

opes:
You are correct regarding Fayose. Makinde will not produce a successor in Oyo, he saw it himself with event that happened last weekend at liberty stadium. Fayose also said that Makinde will never get the ticket in PDP for his presidential ambition, that he can contest in another party but they won't allow him in PDP.

What happened at Liberty stadium?

Oyo people love makinde and will vote his candidate

justi40:
No Sir, when the order is vacated then the real proceeding begin, by allowing the chief judge to set up the panel to investigate

We are saying the same thing. The order is what is stopping the CJ from setting up a panel and the order expires in 2 weeks

Fiscus105:
Read the order and update yourself .


They will start the real (substantial) case in Jan 23.

You are the one to update yourself. It is all formalities. The main thing is to vacate the injunction and once it is done, the coast is clear

adioolayi:
Sentiment and Emotions aside...this is a fair response from the Chief Judge.

It's not about for or against Fubara...it's the law.

The apex court will hammer him heavily later

Fiscus105:
If supreme vacates Ex Parte order, it will now come to high court to hear substantial case ,that is, if CJ should form panel or not, before they conclude the case, it will reach 2030.

No sir, once the exparte is vacated, they can move ahead with the impeachment

dalongjnr:
Now is the long bal and a long rob. Play the waiting game.

It will be concluded soonest

eejo:
Explain Why many Nigerians are going to lose their money. Business, Houses and lives which will escalate into the worst Humanitarian crisis in the History of mankind over the next 25 years.

They will lose their money and property because of national debt, crisis occasioned by over population, insecurity due to bad governance...
The Nigeria is predicted to be the third most populous country by 2050, our resources and national growth can't cater for the population hence leading to a humanitarian crisis. Again, the rising cost of living will push many into poverty and depression. Unemployment and poor education will aid insecurity which will displace many in the country..
Additionally, desertification in the north will over displace people.

Penguin2:
APC will implode from within 🤓

There's implosion in ADC already

slivertongue:
We call it raban kafa!
They are playing tinubu. Even if the movement should join APC, northern masses have resolved to vote against tinubu and his tribulations administration

You said so in 2023 and will say so again in 2031

surgical:
yimu,even lagos his base ,he has always been rigging, is it far states he will leave to chance dey play
Also his antecedents do not support your postulation

Tinubu is the best politician currently, he will easily get reelected. He will win the south and divide the North

lionshare:
If there’s any state I can place a bet that APC will win in SS, it’s Edo State—if you think otherwise, we can place a bet on it.

No, I think the hardest place APC will win is Edo then delta because if the obidients movement but APC would definitely score more here. Where APC would definitely win is rivers and bayelsa

givedemwotowoto:
Buhari had 12 million supporters from the north in 2015 and 2019, but only 6 million of them voted for Tinubu in 2023, which means only half of Buhari’s supporters voted for Tinubu. Now that he’s President and has failed, and Buhari is not there to save him, that number will even be smaller.

But Tinubu didn't have up to 6 million votes in the north. He had just over 5 mil while south gave him 3 mil. Buhari didn't really save him, buhari was more or less neutral. Tinubu will have more votes in the north. Even if it reduces, he would have more down south and middle belt

asfrank:
I'm not really counting on that, because these state have been traditionally PDP states. Winning is not guaranteed, getting more votes than 2023 is something I can bet on

I am not but atiku and pdphave been winning there narrowly which means with the governor defecting, APC might win. It is traditional for PDP at Guber level.

givedemwotowoto:
Why did only 6 million of Buhari's 12 million supporters vote for Tinubu?

What will make them vote for him this time if they didn't vote for him when Buhari told them to, after seeing him blame Buhari, and then fail more than Buhari?

Who told you 6 mil of buhari voters voted Tinubu? Does it not occur to you that some voted kwankwaso and Atiku? He never blamed buhari in any case. Nigerians will rather Tinubu finish his tenure than Atiku come with more wahalas

givedemwotowoto:
Buhari got 15 million votes in 2019, same as 2015. Tinubu contributed only about 2 million votes to that, meaning that’s the highest votes he can mobilize for himself and others.

In 2023, Tinubu got only 8 million votes even with the “he built Lagos” lies and hype. You know the rest 6 million votes came from half of Buhari supporters who listened to him to vote for Tinubu.

Question is, after seeing all his failures, what will make more people support him, that is, if he hasn’t lost many of the 6 million votes that came from Buhari?

If you think the governors defecting will save him, did Sanwo Olu being governor save him in Lagos in 2023?

You think vote-buying is going to automatically solve the problem? Vote buying works mostly when people don’t have a problem with you being their President.

A large number of people don't want atiku or obi

asfrank:
I see people here postulating that the north is not going to vote for Tinubu, same thing was said last year, untill he clinched the NW and performed well in the NE.
Tinubu is not banking on winning these zones, baby analyst here don't seem to understand simple logic. Some here take their personal grudge for the man to mean a general disapproval. I recall back in 2023, the theme was Buhari is not on the ballot, hence Tinubu won't get his votes. But he won in all North East states traditionally won by Buhari except for Bauchi, yobe and Gombe. Taraba and Adamawa has always gone the way of Atiku and it was no different. The States will most likely remain so, especially when he has people doing the ground work for him.
The North West similar patterns were observed. But the main thing you have to factor in is the difference between the winner and the 2nd. The largest margin Atiku won Tinubu with in any northern state came from Adamawa his home state, followed by Kaduna, Bauchi and Gombe. Anywhere else in the North where Atiku recorded victory the difference was less than 60k votes.

And these Large margin of his were easily swallowed up by vote difference from Kano, Lagos, and other SW states. AA didn't win any state in Southern Nigeria aside Osun, and yet again the margin was tight.

AA can't defeat Tinubu, Obi can't get votes in the North enough to defeat Tinubu even if they elites backs him. I'm saying this because the calculations don't favour a new Southern candidate. His best shot came in 2023 and it has passed.

With Taraba governor in APC, Tinubu might likely win there. With Fintiri pro Tinubu, Atiku votes in Adamawa will decrease. Tinubu will win Yobe this time. With Bala likely being on PDP ticket, Bauchi is divided. Atiku still has gombe..
Tinubu will still win north west. He will win sokoto, Kebbi, zamfara, Jigawa and will come close in kaduna

nairalanda1:
North is running away from tinubu. South east may support obi if he is on the ticket again, and southwest has always been problematic even for tinubu. Wike can act as a spoiler again if tinubu favors fubara over him

Yeah governors have defected , but defection doesn't mean votes.

North is not running away, it remains divided. Tinubu already has north central. Defections means votes in Nigeria if you have been following politics

Svoboda:
Everything about revenue generation last year was phantom. We had the deepest revenue shortfall last year in recent history. This is to the extent that the candid revelation by the finance minister has elicited him being sidelined, while 2 budget years have been cancelled already.

Tinubu should just be praying that 2027 elections should record a low voter turnout so he can rig in the south. If not, he realistically has no pathway to victory.

He has SW, ss and NC and parts of core north. Atiku and obi have no pathway

NewHe:
What a wonderful tournament 5 of the 8 quarter finalists are west African teams!

Cameroun isn't west Africa

rolams:
You didn't get my point. Abe can't contest against Fubara again. That's minus one of those who are in Wike's camp that can contest against Fubara. I believe President Tinubu will give Wike men more positions in order to grant Fubara the second term slot.

Wike was never going to consider Abe as governor na, Abe is strong and independent minded like himself, he needs a yes boy and a core loyallist

rolams:
Ok.

I believe the thank you from Magnus settled it

Danelo:
I laugh in Taiwan....

Person wey steal mandate

From who? Who was winning

BeginsAtHome:
Which of the South-South e win?
Mark my word, BAT will lose Rivers, Bayelsa and Delta states in 2027.

Edo will be slightly won, Akwa Ibom and Cross rivers are his.

It is only Edo and delta he can lose narrowly

rolams:
Tinubu is giving power to other people in rivers state to tackle/weaken Wike.

Oga sir, Magnus and Wike are allies. Kenneth kobani is Wike man

southsouthking:
Wike won't be comfortable with this appointment.

Is it not obvious that Wike nominated him and Kenneth kobani

Educationalserv:
yarns you think you can ambush our psychology
Defeating Tinibu is a patriotic duty of all reasonable citizens

Majority still prefer Tinubu

Educationalserv:
hogwash points .
They don't like who are the 22m citizens that voted for them

Tinubu cannot be defeated

Educationalserv:
List 3 reasons why he will get 30 percent in Northwest and 25 percent in the south east !
We have over 10 Major reason why he deserves zero .
Nepotism and yorubaization
Hyper Inflation
Insecurity
US Conviction
Cost of living Crisis
Baised infrastructural development of Northern Nigeria.
One party state intention
Devaluation of naira
Removals of subsides
Corruption

I believe the 2023 elections and 2019 polls showed you the above factors don't matter much. Nigerians may not like Tinubu but they dont like Atiku or obi either. A larger number of voters will prefer Tinubu finish his tenure

mrvitalis:
Tinubu can't rig core North, can't right South East... That's 3 zones he can't manipulate

South South ADC have people to protect their votes
Middle belt same

South West is the only Place Tinubu can manipulate

ADC in SS does not have what it takes to match Tinubu, he will smother them. Tinubu will overrun kwara, kogi, benue, plateau, sokoto.

ElevationD:
Only watch and see!

Edo election should have taught you a lesson sir. You are not good in politics, comot body. Tinubu has rivers overwhelmingly and a chunk of delta. Sheriff has no opponent, rivers governor will still come from fubara/ wike axis

Educationalserv:
The entire votes from the Southwest has been in range of 2.3m to 2.7m all for Buhari and Tinibu this a reoccurring decimal it will not change .this the only sure banker for Tinibu (Block votes ) Now Makinde a Fellow Yoruba will Appeal more to younger voters from the Southwest only ...for Bala Mohammed he cannot get 100k votes in his Bauchi and the entire North .So Makinde is cutting of Tinibu 2.5m voters in his yoruba enclaves .

All the 6.8m that voted Atiku are still rebellious against Tinibu and APC
Additional Tinibu 5.8M from the North that proper his to presidency is gone based on poor performance and tribalist.the Muslim Muslim manipulation is gone ..this votes are going to ADC and Atiku ( 4m )
The Kwakwaso spoiler of 1.4m from the North is going to Atiku/ADC
Makinde is a Spoiler for Tinibu like Kwakwaso was a Spoiler for Atiku .
The south eastern vote of 3 Million is going to obi .if this can be fused to ADC ( Atiku obi tickets) is bye bye Tinibu .
It will be 14m votes similar to buhari winning strategy.North brining in 10m +4m from south eastern.
From the south South Tinibu can only get 2m Max then few votes of 1m from Central
Total 6m

You did this nonsensical permutation in 2023 and failed woefully. Tinubu has gained new voters in the north central, South south and even north east. The kwankwaso votes will remain with kwankwaso or scatter like buhari votes. Atiku took a distant third in Kano which means Kano voters dislike him so nothing for him. It is a walkover for Tinubu

Franking:
Thw difference being that PDP won all their states then at the polls while the APC bullied many of the governors into joining them.

You lie. PDP rigged majority of those states and several governors where bullied to join