₦airaland Forum

slivertongue:
Politics the world over has two core schools of thoughts the Liberal and Conservative with Moderate as the intervening perspective. There is nothing strictly called Christian and Muslim votes in the North because there is nothing also called Christian money, Christian development, Christian security, Christian roads, Christian markets, etc neither is there any for Muslims and African traditional worshipers but we have a place called Northern Nigeria.

The Liberal is opened to various ideas and persons, while the conservative focuses on religion, region, ethnicity or specific policy. The liberal North is larger than the conservative North. Those who pushed for a Muslim Muslim ticket cannot go back to the Muslims and campaign with the same messages like they did in 2023, because they scammed them using religion. The liberal areas won't necessarily open up to tickets that ain't balanced and has no deliverables by way of improved standards of living to point to. 6 out of 7 votes of the liberals will go to the opposition. 1 or 2 out of 3 votes of the conservatives will go the ruling administration. That is a total of 3 at most out of 10.

Going by Christian votes Tinubu won't even get 3 out of 10 votes but can get 3 Muslim votes. There are more registered voters now, there is more political awareness now, there is more resolve to turn out and vote now, there are more younger citizens driving the process now, above all 99% of Nigerians are victims of state induced poverty so it is possible for AA to ganner more votes than GMB's. In the South Tinubu won't secure 50% of the votes. Now understand the 50%of the votes in the North is like 70% of votes in the South. Obi’s presence the major threat to AA and Tinubu.

I expected you to list the areas who vote liberally or conservatively but you failed to because they hardly exist up north. Like I earlier said, the north vote along two major lines, religion and ethnicity. The two major areas are the core north or northern Muslims who vote majorly for northern Muslims and northern christians who vote mainly for southern Christians or liberal northern Muslims. Liberals and conservatives are too few up north to effect any change. They are more prominent down south. These are established facts based on Nigeria's history and we must stick to that.
If Tinubu is having 3 out of ten up north, then it is fairly ok assuming the remaining 7 is being divided. Christian votes are almost certainly going to Tinubu, this is a given which even Obi has accepted. Almost all of the so called attacks on apc campaigns are in non Christian dominated areas meaning he will have more Christian votes.
Again, there are less voters than in 2023 and there is less awareness except from the Atiku camp. A large chunk of those that registered newly are doing it for non voting purposes... Nothing can make AA garner much votes than buhari. The factors are not there. Hunger alone is not enough. Factors included popularity, massive decamping, party structure, foreign support etc. none of these are in favour of Atiku. Atiku best bet will be to replicate Buhari 2003-2011 performance where he dominated the core north and lost the other four regions. Even in that core north, pdp got over 25% in most of the 13 states. Tinubu can get up to 50% of the south. He will certainly score above 2023 figure.
The voting turnout gap between the south and north is closing. In 2023, Total votes in the north was 14 million and south 10 million. Assuming AA polls 7 mil in the north and 1 million down south, he still falls short assuming tinubu polls 4.5 mil in the south and 4.5 million in the north. There is absolutely no pathway for Atiku. The only way is to force a runoff which isn't feasible. You made similar analysis in the past against the ruling party and it failed so you should give this a rest

codedguy1:
This is the fear.

It is not a fear but the fact.

Lithiumite:
Thats about 6 states out da window for aminda's atiku out of 19,waiting for aminda to mention just 1 state in the South atiku has wide support......add 6 to 17,thats 23 states out of 36 including fct which is also not considered to be for atiku.

No wonder he is looking for stones, perhaps to vote his incorrigible atiku.

Middlebelt extends beyond north central. It includes kaduna, Taraba, Adamawa, southern Gombe, southern Kebbi and sometimes southern Borno

Cc Aminda , svoboda seems Tinubu will sweep the north

slivertongue:
AA's votes will largely come from the North. Followed by Tinubu and Obi. The gap between AA and southern candidates will be very wide but Tinubu and Obi will have a close run in the North. Tinubu's money will generate votes for him, like half or less than half of what he got in 2023. Most liberal areas in the North which are more than the conservative areas are rooting for AA as the preferred choice and Obi the alternative choice and this is where the bulk of the votes will come from, 7 out 10. In the conservative areas AA is the preferred choice with Tinubu as the alternative, 3 out 10.

I don't know what you mean by liberal and conservative northern areas. I classify the north into two, Muslim and Christian dominated areas. Atiku will dominate the former and Tinubu the latter. The gap Atiku will give Tinubu won't be up to what buhari used to get which is crucial. Tinubu will be closer to Atiku than obi closer to Tinubu. Tinubu has a lot of leverage and room for errors. He can afford to perform worse than 2023 and still win...he can afford to lose half of his northern votes and still win. Atiku needs to double up what he got 2023 which is impossible
Atiku will perform woefully in the south which will be his Achilles heel. Tinubu got 35% in the south and 38% in the north previously. So yes atiku can score 50% in the north ( core north) but if Tinubu gets 30% it's over

aswani:
They, I am sure, will also support only those candidates whose Obidients followers don't celebrate when unfortunate things happen in the middle belt.

Same as the rest of the country. Ndi "elections have consequences" and "they wanted to teach Peter Obi a lesson", how market?

Edo Central will be divided this time

Kalashnikov49:
So you feel..

E go shock una..

Majority of Atiku northern voters will go Tinubu

TRUTHaDDICTED:
If Atiku decides to step down for Obi, it would have to be at the eleventh hour to throw APC into more panic and confusion.

It will make it easier

slivertongue:
50% of the votes in the North will likely go to AA. They are done with the disaster in Aso rock

No more obi? Likely means it won't be up to that. If Tinubu can get 35%, that's all

Atiku will face massive humiliation in the north central

The Middle Belt Forum (MBF) has ruled out supporting African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential hopeful Atiku Abubakar or any other northern presidential candidate in the 2027 election, saying it will back only a southern candidate of its choice.

The forum said its position was based on an agreement with prominent southern socio-cultural organisations, including the Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), Afenifere and Ohanaeze Ndigbo, that the presidency should remain in Southern Nigeria until 2031.


Speaking with our correspondent, MBF spokesman Luka Binniyat said the forum had not endorsed any candidate for the 2027 election but would consider the major southern contenders, particularly President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Peter Obi.

He said, “This means that, in 2027, we will support only a southern presidential candidate of our choice. We will not support Atiku Abubakar or any other northern presidential candidate. This leaves us to consider the major southern contenders, particularly President Tinubu and Peter Obi.”

Binniyat said both candidates would have to demonstrate how they intended to address the concerns of the Middle Belt and improve the region’s prospects of producing Nigeria’s president in 2031.

“Obi won significant support across many Middle Belt areas in 2023, but political support cannot be taken for granted in 2027.

“The question is what either candidate is prepared to offer the region in terms of security, development, inclusion in governance and the prospect of producing the President in 2031.

“Ultimately, the leaders of the Middle Belt will support the candidate who offers the best prospects for our people and our aspiration to produce the president in 2031.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://leadership.ng/2027-middle-belt-forum-rules-out-atiku-says-it-will-back-southern-candidate/&ved=2ahUKEwjXpeioisiXAxViWkEAHTUVH3IQFnoECCMQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0Yg3M9CQcBB_s0jVsEoJvo

fergie001
Mynd44
Nlfpmod
Seun
Saintkel
Aminda
Svoboda
Iwaeda

AMINDA:
Tinubu will struggle in the Southwest. He is not as popular as his lackeys like to pretend, even in his region.

Atiku is struggling in Adamawa

givedemwotowoto:
Peter Obi everywhere you go

While others wait for payment, genuine Obi and NDC supporters are already on the ground organizing, mobilising, and pushing for good governance with nothing but conviction and commitment.

No contracts.
No allowances. Just results.
That’s the difference. pic.twitter.com/JB99bFu08d

— Peter Obi Grassroots Commentary (@PO_GrassRootM) October 15, 2026

With printed logos and t shirts? Where you not the one mocking APC

Aiel123:
He lost Bayelsa marginally in 2023. Factor in Dickson as national leader and senatorial candidate for the equation changes.
My analysis is hinged on Dickson delivering with his own strength.

In 2019 Dickson was overrun in bayelsa as governor. Outside his Sagbama, he isn't that strong. His strength lies in incumbency. Bayelsa is a state that usually goes to the incumbent because of their political structure and geographic terrain. Other states like that are Taraba, kwara, Benue, rivers, Akwa ibom, ogun, Yobe, Borno etc

Aiel123:
I don't see PO losing Bayelsea.
He might lose or win CRS marginally
In all the SS will be heavily divided like the NC in 2023.

How is he going to win bayelsa? That's his weakest zone in SS apart from akwa ibom. He won CRS narrowly the last time. He will lose narrowly. He will win delta but with lower margins

Memphis357:
I am so glad that tinubu will not be campaigning in some part of the country because of fear of people stoning him …. See what’s happening in the north, APC has been totally rejected and I guess that’s the fear …. This should be an advantage for PO ….. Nigeria will definitely be OK comes 2027.

The north has also rejected obi

seunmsg:
Atiku will not win or come second in NC. He will come second or third. In fact, I think he will come third.

I'm projecting Tinubu to win the SS outrightly. He will win Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Bayelsa. Delta and Edo will be evenly divided. I don't see a path to victory in the region for Peter Obi this time around.

I agree. I think Tinubu will do better in Edo than Delta

AMINDA:
Exactly. Tinubu didn't deliver himself, yet he claimed victory. He even lost his polling unit as an aspirant on the ballot. Why then is he chastising others for failing to do what he couldn't do for himself and being arrogant about it? If it were that easy, why couldn't he do it?

Tinubu won his polling unit you liar. It is Atiku your principal that lost his unit in 2019

AMINDA:
You are becoming too paranoid and obsessed with me. Refrain from stalking me and mentioning me on every thread. Kindly make your own comments and keep it moving. Stop chasing my validation. I barely notice your own comments.

Tinubu has said he will not be campaigning because he knows his presence at most of these state campaigns may be met with disgrace. He now hides under the crowd pulled by APC governors who are also seeking reelection. Many of the governors were forced to defect and will comfortably win their own elections while failing to deliver Tinubu. Tinubu is more unpopular than the APC.

You are obsessed with Tinubu

soccerlite:
Osun people are wiser


Adeleke is doing everything for osun account to be unbanned

bola knows Adeleke is deceiving him, but he most play along to look that he's on ground in sw

What will happen to bola come Jan 2027 will be worst than what happened to pharoah at the red sea

Are you from osun

AndroBlaze:

The only state APC would find difficult to do well in is maybe Delta.

APC will win or come a close second in each state he mentioned.

Kaduna, Katsina, Benue, Oyo and Ogun will be carried easily by APC.

Tinubu will get 25% or more in Delta

DoTheNeedful:
APC cannot win Katsina, let's be realistic. In fact, APC will lose the NW and the NE. The margin of the defeat will determine the outcome of the election.

That said, I still believe Tinubu will win. Outrightly winning a state will not matter too much in the forthcoming presidential election. In 2023, Tinubu lost Lagos, Kano, Katsina, and Osun. Yet, across these four states, he got around 2 million votes, representing 33% of Obi's votes and 30% of Atiku's votes. At the moment, Tinubu will come at least second in almost every state in Nigeria. That should seal the deal for him, except the NW break massively (the Buhari way) in favour of Atiku.

Atiku really upset the cart by announcing that he would return subsidy. Whether you agree or not, the dynamics of the 2027 elections changed after that announcement. Atiku currently even has more momentum than Peter Obi.

APC has Katsina sir. The ADC is empty there. There's no way Atiku can have bloc votes up north

Lordhanzo:
wike ? He’s busy begging fubara. Hope and the other apc govs have thier hands in his throat. He’s fighting for his life. Lol. Except you are banking on digging which won’t work. Rivers is a list case for tinubu

In 2023 obi won it. Wike will be checkmated this time.

Did you see him begging Fubara? Oga leave hatred and face reality. Who will checkmate wike? Obi can never be president

Lordhanzo:
Yorubas ? Are there Youruba people in the south south ? 😇. Even rivers state na ndc get am. You go see

I mean Lagos state. For rivers, wike owns it

Skodiswayze:
Go ask AMBO for osun, he pulled times two of this crowd, collect money, then voted their conscience. You think say Oyo state indegenes mumu like you.

Oyo is for Tinubu

oyoofong:
They can rework the list as many times as they want! The composition of the committee is not what determines the outcome. Some of its members will still be working with and for Atiku.This is Atiku’s time!

And some people in atiku camp will work for Tinubu. What will they gain in working with Atiku

Validated:
Nothing changed, Tinubu will still be humiliated on January 16, 2026. Nigerians will vote and defend their votes across the 6 geographical zones.

NDC is sure to take SE, 85%, SS, 70% NC, 70% (except Kogi and Kwara with 25% each), NE 25% each of Adamawa, Bornu, Yobe, Kano, 85%, Kaduna, 33%, Kebbi, Katsina 20%, Sokoto 28%, Jigawa 30%.
SW - Lagos 60%, Ondo 29%, Osun 30%, Oyo 25%, Ogun 25%, Ekiti 25%. NDC will defeat Tinubu in Lagos and take 2nd position in other SW states. No argument here. NDC will win FCT by a landslide.
Tinubu's subsidies has destroyed APC'S capacity at the polls.

Cry if you like, Peter N Obi is your next president. QED.

Even kwankwaso never got 85% in Kano. This is pure childishness

Lordhanzo:
lol. Sooooo what miracle did asiwaju do that will make Yorubas now vote him. And abandon obi.

Obidients insulted and movked yorubas. It's all about emotions

Kalashnikov49:
Very lame gathering....they are in a secondary school yard

Legendhero Richtaiwo fsboperator FreeStuffsNG madridguy etc etc..

Is this all you can gather in he-badan?

Lol, obi can't gather such crowd.

Lordhanzo:
okay na.

Lagos is urbanised. Sooooo

And obi won there last time because many yorubas decided to vote against Tinubu. It won't happen again

Lordhanzo:
and why do you think he can just win edo and delta. What’s the difference between them and the rest ?

Obi and delta are heavily urbanized na and that's where obi is most popular. Those other areas are mainly rural and obi isn't very popular there. You saw how obi struggled there. He will lose this time

AMINDA:
Na today? Reno Omokri alias Bemigho, also denied ever questioning Bola's paternity.

It was in 2023 sir. Atiku is gone