₦airaland Forum

omenma1:
Why is it that we civilians do not see beyond our nose?? Why don't we give GEJ this opportunity and see what he has to offer?? For goodness sake we should stop criticizing and stop the protest against the removal of subsidy and divert this energy towards the cure of corruption in politics and implementation of these promises of the revenue generated from the subsidy removal.

Deep Sight:
The Opening Post is a staggeringly shallow, false and fraudulent argumentation which misses the pith of the question regarding the 1.3 Trillion issue.

The issue is pretty simple but I am being forced to repeat it all over this board: There are various factors which determine the aggregate cost spent on the fuel subsidy - the critical point is that as long as the subsidy regime has existed - ALL of these factors have existed. The question therefore arises as to what exactly within these factors accounts for a five-fold increase within ONE YEAR ONLY - notwithstanding that the same factors were present in all previous years, but NEVER had such a staggering impact.

In the eight years preceding 2011, the subsidy has ALWAYS been financed well below 300 billion naira. Indeed to be exact, the amount budgeted for the subsidy in 2011 was 240 billion naira only.

Having operated the subsidy regime for several years already, the government of course had a clear idea as to the cost of the subsidy and such information would have been the basis for arriving at a budget of 240 billion for the subsidy within the 2011 budget. The question thus is; what factors could have been so overwhelmingly different in 2011 - which factors did not operate in prior years - as to cause an increase from 240 billion to 1.3 trillion? ? ?

Those factors CANNOT be any of the factors listed by the OP because ALL the factors listed by the OP operated in all prior years and only increase or decrease marginally year on year. For example, the OP says -

In the foregoing the OP mentions average price of crude, foreign exchange differentials, increase in energy demand due to population growth, and increase in smuggled products across Nigerian borders as factors.

Let us look at these factors one at a time and see whether either any one of them or a combination of all of them could be responsible for the ridiculous rise in the cost of the subsidy in 2011. What we find is that these are out rightly st.upid excuses for the OP to proffer as responsible for the 2011 increase.

He mentioned the following factors -

1. Average price of Crude: The average price of Crude Oil in 2010 and 2011 were not different to such a degree as to justify the assertions of the OP. The differentials observable can by no means account for any tangible increase across the year - much less an increase of over 1 trillion naira. In reality Oil has sold at over a 100 USD per barrel a different points within the last five years and at no time has it had anything even remotely close to this effect on the cost of the subsidy. To be more precise, the differential between 2010 and 2011 taken as an annual average does not exceed 12 – 15 per cent. Thus if this were actually true, it would at best increase the subsidy from 240 billion to a little less than 270 billion.

2. Foreign Exchange differentials: between 2010 and 2011, the naira did not fluctuate beyond 12 percent points of its value against the US Dollar. If we are to place this fluctuation against the value of the subsidy, it would have at best meant an increase in the cost by about 30 billion naira - thus a total cost of about 270 billion - still well below the 300 billion naira mark, and without the slightest hope of approaching anything even remotely resembling 1 trillion, not to speak of 1.3 TRILLION. Now even if we add the supposed crude oil price fluctuation, that would take us to about 310 billion naira only!

Thus even a combination of these excuses falls FAR short of any hope of a justification of the 1.3 trillion figure!

3. Increase in energy demand due to population growth: This is actually the most foolish factor advanced by the OP for many reasons.

- First and foremost, population growth did not commence in 2011. It has always been there. If any population growth affects the consumption, it occurs every year and represents a slight marginal increase at best. It can never account for a sudden increase of five fold because the population grows by a fraction only annually. So that is beyond preposterous.

- But in reality, the sheer foolishness of this statement is understood better when one realizes that population growth is represented by new babies. Gentlemen, babies don’t drive cars. And even if they did, why have the new babies who were driving cars every year prior to 2011 suddenly increased a thousand-million fold in 2011. This is ignorance, thoughtlessness and pure hilarity of reasoning at its height. It is so profoundly st.upid that it makes me understand why Nigerians regard Sanusi Lamido as a bright guy. Because Nigerians are very easily fooled by grammar and figures. This OP here is has advanced a hilariously da.ft argument and it is being applauded!

[b]4. Increased in Smuggled Products: - [/b]Again, the mention of this factor just shows me the general poverty of intellect that many Nigerians suffer from. Indeed I heard several people congratulation the CBN Governor for his “brilliance” when he mentioned this. I was so aghast that my jaw dropped open. Anywhere else in the world government officials would be loathe to give such a brazen admission of utter incompetence. Not so here.

At all events, for the purposes of the arguments advanced by the OP, the simple reason that this factor fails as a reason is because petrol has a marketing chain which ends in petrol stations and therefore it is possible by backward tracing to determine the volume which reaches Nigerian Petrol stations. Given that each Operator has records of the marketers it purchases from, it is also possible to easily determine what quantities are sold in Nigeria as against quantities that take flight as smuggled petrol. Thus any serious government will only have to pay that which ends in the Nigerian Market. A government that cannot do this, Is not fit to run a nursery school.

It is thus obvious that the reasons proffered by the OP are as ludicrous as they spurious and laughable. There is none of these factors which has not always existed: and there is none, taken either by itself or together with others - that could justify a rise from 240 billion to 1.3 trillion. And that is a cast iron fact.

sheyguy:
^^ its all about contentment, the man is making a decent profit and he is satisfied with it, unlike some who always want more money.

jason123:
^^^
SMH!

alj harem:
[size=15pt]Dude he wants to trap you by playing his silly games again. Don't fall for it. Leave him to me
[/size]

Go ask ekt-bear, Gbawe etc that is what he is known for.

For the avoidance of doubt, it is important to put it on record, that my oil company, the Global Fleet Oil and Gas, which has been operating in the past nine years, with more than 210 petrol stations across the country, has never collected any money called subsidy from the Federal Government or it's agents. in addition, I have never collected any allocation from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company or imported such. We only buy and sell. I challenge anyone who has contrary information to publish it or remain silent in shame.

dasparrow:
Why are some people arguing about whom the oil belongs to? Is that the matter on ground? Let's deal with the situation on ground first. We should also think of developing other sectors of the economy because when the oil dries up, then what?

jason123:
^^^
And is anything wrong with that?? I could have lied as some usually do (all it takes is Google) but I am telling the truth. Its your choice to believe or not to believe, after all, this is the internet and I am Abagworo according to you.

jason123:
Well done.
Say no more, bros.

@Beaf
the propaganda here with your other IDs will do us no good. The reality on ground is VERY different from what you tell people.
Kpogede is a man on ground and he is telling you the TRUTH! https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-710432.0.html
Ilajes fought with MEND because it was a fight for justice for all oil producing community. . . .
He who has ear, let him hear!

Before I digress, the attempt to ethnicise this protest or turn it into an oil battle will not work!

The era of divide and rule has ended. Now is the time to demand accountability. This is not about GEJ or ND as you make it. I have been praying for GEJ so I do not dislike him. This is more than him. This is about leadership!

Beaf:
This is exactly why GEJ is deregulating. NNPC is going to be scrapped after PHCN.

jmaine:
That is to say, there is no clear boundary between adjoining nations   . . .Oga, hope say you no dey pull my leg sef join  

manny4life:
Out of control is understatement, it will give the bleeping police "stable grounds" to inflict pain on people,  The sooner they adhere to public pleading like me (Please stay away from attacking folks),[size=15pt] the better otherwise that will defeat the purpose of the protest[/size]. They say a word is enough for the wise, my people say "when you tell the ear, it will not listen, when you cut off the head, the ear follows", food for thought.

jmaine:
To make it clear to people what cessation means to the Niger Deltans folks, when they say, they would own the vast oil and gas mine underneath them . .

It's imperatives we clear that now, before the bug spreads across nairaland that cessation won't affects distribution and ownership of resources depending on their proximity, guided by international regulations and statutes

manny4life:
@ OP,

This is very unbecoming of the protesters, we all understand their anger but this is getting outta hand, this is the time when Police has to use "minimal force" to defend an attack on someone's live NOT that I support the actions of police killings. I understand the hardship this is causing but [size=18pt]direct attack on senators WILL NOT solve the problem.[/size]

jmaine:
Before they impeach . . .can they, the NASS members, slash their ridiculous alawee . . . and the impeachment sef is dicey . . . it's a delicate game, whose outcome mind be mind blowing . .  . . .

Beaf:
And if the country splits, will you be coming for offsore oil from Kano and Ibadan? I can't fit laf!

Anybaba:
It will get to you soon. Yes, you ! In a lawless society, you will defend your incorruptibility. Encouraging anarchy in Nigeria today is invitation of doom ! Nigeria as you know it will not survive it, neither will you.

diluminati:
This Bliss4lyfe must be praying for this thread to dive into oblivion. He must be saying 'Oh what a fool i've become, my blind loyalty made me write this shet. I'm sory i'm a fool'

Anybaba:
All of you supporting anarchy will not live to tell the story when it ends, if indeed it will ever end. I am very certain, there won't be free oil for everyone to glut on.

DanKan0:
Trust there is anger on the street.[size=18pt] I dare people supporting GEJ go out on the street[/size] and say the support N140 liter.