₦airaland Forum

HesInMe:
No vex. I didn't realize my tone was that sharp. You said NGXGROUP was being "pushed" (which sounded like manipulation, or at least aggressive marketing), so I asked who was doing the deed.

There might be another explanation: Investors positioning for higher market highs (which is good for the company) and near-term major earnings catalysts and buzz (2026 IPOs of Dangote Refinery and maybe Moniepoint).

You're right.
But to be practical, let SEC say tomorrow that they only want cash for the capitalization like CBN did by saying they didn't want retained earnings.

If sec said anything like that, I guarantee you would get the stock at 20% below CMP in less than a week.


You don't have to agree, but I speak from what I know as one of the most active participants in this market.

chimex38:
If it's like that. They don't have problem then. That's their specialty; Market makers

ASI fit even touch 200k

ASI should hit 200k in H1.

Ahaji's listing could make the timeline faster.

Itzlinda:
Drop update now Boss. We will like to learn from you.

With Faith, the impossible becomes possible, even the beneficiar(ies) can be shocked 😁

chimex38:
Interesting..
The problem arises when they
all decide to sell towards the end of the 12months period to update their books..
who go wan buy that volume and value worth in billion if they eventually push to 200

They won't have to sell though, the paper value of the stocks would count towards the recapitalizion target. As per what the chairman of Apt Securities said in an interview, he's also on the board of the SEC.

Stockhunter:
Please explain further..

After the demutualization, every broker got about 6m units of NGXGROUP.

when SEC announced the new capitalization guidelines, the stock was around N78 or less.

Now at N113, that's a N35 gain per share, so every broker's holding has grown by 6m × N35 which is about N200m.


Some people would be quick to want to say how about those that have sold, just cos they're looking for what to fault?

Whether anyone has sold is not the point here, the point is that between the last recapitalizion and now, brokers have gotten NGXGROUP stock and the value of what they got has gone up by about N200m in the past month.


Yet they still have 16 months to meet up.

HesInMe:
How so? And who is doing the pushing you allege?

Your phone doesn't have Google?

Did you seriously expect an explanation with this kind of tone?

You lack information and you feel this tone will somehow magically help you get it?

emmaodet:
I like your analysis especially with forex

Thanks boss

Index now pushing 174k.
One thing I see is that even when my projections seem not to materialize, they only just delay by a bit 😁

With average number of deals now being at 50k, I thought my 1% participation must have significantly gone down.

But thanks to X-Alert restoration.

I am able to see that total deals for the session were 65,960 out of which I was responsible for
767 trades!!!

767 trades in a single day without using a super computer

At this point, even I do not understand how it's even possible 😁😁😁

This means there's a 1.2 % chance that every retail, institutional and foreign investor that traded in this market today either sold to me or bought from me, that's super awesome.

When I already traded about N30m within the first 30 minutes, I knew the day's numbers would be impressive.

Value for me was N40.45m compared to N27.915b for the broad market.
That too is a significant 0.1% to 1.d.p

I'm still shocked at the possibility of almost 800 trades in one day, thank God! 😁😁😁


Long term goal is 1% of the market!

mikeapollo:
So your horizon is only from 2022-2025? And that explains all you know about the economic history of Nigeria?
You seem not to know that Nigeria may even ''do everything right'' and the naira may still depreciate against the dollar because other actions/initiatives can be taken by US govt which are not under the control of FGN.

I can see that your choice of words about the other person is always in a particular direction.....
.
I am done with you on this matter.
Wish you best of luck

No thanks, you need the luck more, i never need any luck.

you can hoard all the dollars you want, it's your money.

mikeapollo:
This is not the end yet of currency movements; things can change a few months from now. Let's be circumspect in the choice of words, especially when it is derogatory.
Nobody knows it all. NSEMPA is not IMF nor WB boardroom..

You should just calm down and learn what you might be ignorant of. That's the real proof of your position that noboy knows it all. All this talk of trying to justify someone's ignorance in the name of your perceived derogation serves near nil purpose.

The nature of financial markets is such that sometimes, you can't even use January numbers to trade in February.

If you look at a company's number today and it has a 3x PE, you see a discount and want to buy, if after 4 quarterly results, you fail to check the current numbers, but just prefer to stick to your outdated knowledge, how would you not get dumped on at 30x PE?

mikeapollo:
The chances are high.
Nigeria operates a less diversified, import dependent economy, so it is prone to revenue and hence exchange rate fluctuations

again, you stand to lose big if you don't update this your outdated information.

what was the balance of payment in 2022, what was it in 2025? you want to use 2022 informationto trade in 2025, and you expect to much success??

By pushing NGXGROUP to N113, the average broker has gotten about N200m towards, their capitalization target.
If they push it to N200 they will get additional N500m each.

mikeapollo:
Are you aware of the purpose and how long (time horizon) for which the person is holding the dollars?.
What would you say if for instance, the person is hoarding the dollars to pay future school fees in 2030 and it gets to N1,800 by then?
Nobody can predict with certainty, hence no one should boast or sound condescending or derogatory

cALLING out someone's factual naivety is simply in their own best interest. condescending is only your perception.
The picture you painted is irrelevant given that the guy didn't say he was buying USD for his own obligations, he simply was ignorantly bearish on the currency and advising people to join his bandwagon with no basis.

Index at 172k!

Deals set to top 60k today.

mikeapollo:
[/b]
Too early and unnecessary to sound derogatory.
All markets (currency, stocks, commodities etc.) fluctuate and the most experienced finance, banking and business experts do get their foreasts wrong. The fact that naira has appreciated against the dollar in the couple of weeks does not mean the current exchange rates will be permanent for ever or even in the next one year or two.

Too early for you to make wrong conclusions.

Anyone who was preaching hoarding dollars in 2025 was clearly inexperienced. It's a simple fact, you seeing a derrogation there is purely your opinion.

rESERVES numbers as published re set to hit a new high of $47bn today, naira holding steady below 1380.
ASI up about 8% YTD, NGN up 3%, making NGX about 11% up YTD in dollar terms.

One guy here was preaching hoarding dollars last year,another classic case of theoretical knowledge without depth.

essentialone:
CSCS must refund all of us our money they have been deducting for the past 4 months.

That would be like 80k for me.

unite4real:
for the kind of transactions you do, the alerts should stream for the whole day

😁😁😁

7 minutes and trade alerts are still streaming in.

I probably did over 300 deals today be that 😁

Finally!
After 4 months!!!
X-Alert is alive!!!

My phone has been buzzing non stop for almost 5 minutes 😁😁😁

Great way to mark ASI at 170k, new ATH 🎉🎉🎉

Willie2015:
I take some profit at 7370 on Seplat today

I hold till KM 8000k

Awesome!

Chams Q4: over 50% earnings drop yoy

KarlTom:
Yh.
This Q4 drop seems to be the norm but 70% is a lot.

I await ARADEL's result...

I wasn't even comparing Q4 to Q3, I was comparing Q4 '25 to Q4 '24, which are apples to apples in terms of seasonality.

KarlTom:
AIRTEL
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45854_AIRTEL_AFRICA_PLC-RESULTS_FOR_NINE_MONTHS_ENDED_31_DECEMBER_2025_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JANUARY_2026.pdf

OKOMU
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45855_OKOMU_OIL_PALM_PLC.-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2026.pdf

ZENITH
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45851_ZENITH_BANK_PLC-ZENITH_BANK_PLC_-_ANNOUNCEMENT__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JANUARY_2026.pdf

OKOMUOIL: over 70% drop in Q4 earnings yoy.

Would have been steeper if their oil palm cost of sales were actual cost rather than earnings.

Reading AIRTEL's results is merely for mental exercise, the stock is as good as delisted on the NGX.

PuristForest:
Dont see Naira below 1317

That would be fair enough.

1317 means we could again buy PMS at #650 retail, a price level not seen since 2023.

Like so for most other imported items: cars and all.

But more importantly it would be awesome that the currency does 2 years of back to back strengthening, I don't think I've ever witnessed that.

BabsO2:
FCMB unaudited has N5b in comprehensive statement recorded clearly as a loss due to FX Translation and another 30b due to fair values (likely FX related if one looks through the notes. But with massive growth recorded in PAT in 2025 these loses are did not impact the comprehensive income growth that much. WEMA doubled growth in PAT and comprehensive income with no FX wahala.

Exactly 💯💯

BabsO2:
Was thinking of buy Access. If naira strengthens it may hit them more indeed.

Ask Agba for price. Don't be surprised if he quotes single digit. He has point to hold on to now.

BabsO2:
I am talking about banks. Not manufacturing companies.

Yes, I didn't read your post well.
@iskalamong helped my hastiness.

You're right about unrealized fx gains from 2024 becoming losses.

We'll see that in FY '25 results for those who have unrealized gains from 2024.

Agbalowomeri:
Na banks go report FX losses this time while the manufacturers will report FX gains

Especially Access.

iskalamong:
Your point is clear but I think you missed his.

While many manufacturing companies, FMCGs, consumer goods and even telcos bellwethers lost due to the falling naira, the banks on their other hand, (and a few other companies) had currency revaluation gains.

He is asking if this recovery in the naira will reverse those previously booked revaluation gains of banks.

I hope it’s clear now.

Cheers

Iskalamong

.

.

Didn't the 0% long NOP policy from 2024 fix this? Most banks already realized the FX gains in 2024 na.

Apart from those like ACCESSCORP who have significant foreign subsidiary assets.

BabsO2:
This should make some already reported FX related gains in banking stocks comprehensive income turn into losses. Though the severity may be muted due to growing incomes.

For most companies, their fx exposures are net liabilities. So this strengthening will translate into gains. Although this won't materialize until end Q1.

Am I missing your point though?

What I see is every company that recorded FX gains in 2025 did so on naira strengthening, more strengthening thus only translates into more gains for them.

PZ for instance will might have to value their FX Obligations below 1350 next month. Another N70 gains for them.