₦airaland Forum

Oasisblue:
Transpower offers looks ridiculously fishy. Everyone listing the same number of shares for sale at the same price?

Nothing fishy. If you have 720k units to offload and you don't want to crash the price, that's how you would place them on sale

rmx:
Rates going back up , might be temporary , BM is back over 1400 transfer , official also higher

https://thenationonlineng.net/cbn-mops-up-dollars-to-slowdown-naira-appreciation/

The CBN is concerned about too fast a pace for the appreciation. I learnt they were net takers from the market last week. Almost $200m they bought off sellers, they themselves not having to sell any dollars to the market. They bought off people to avoid too rapid movement.

If you were an FPI that brought in $1bn at N1500, should the currency move too rapidly to N1250, you have a 20% incentive to sell off your debt and have your original N1.5 trn capital now buy as much as $1.2bn worth of cheap dollars.

If all FPIs ran that maths, the demand would be too crazy for the CBN to match, so steady gains are preferred.

I still expect 1200 to 1260 by Q2.
I actually want that. I guess most of us naira earners do.

megawealth01:
If I hear say LEGEND no manipulate?

Going by fundamentals, legend should have hit N1.20 since last quarter.

pluto09:
I should blame myself and not the company if I should fall prey to those kind of manipulation on NGX

Exactly.
The company isn't responsible for your greed.

You willingly placed a bid to buy a company with zero equity, sometimes negative equity, sometime crazy earnings multiples like 100x

You sent in the order on your own accord, if it backfires, 10000000% of the blame is on you.

Life isn't supposed to be hard.

mikeapollo:
Then you should appreciate what folks are saying here because you and I could fall prey to such schemes.
There is no double standards here.
Any stock can reach a height if there is enough liquidity in the market to support it. In Zichis case, there was no liquidity (retail investors did not have it) but their management and brokers/registrars decided to deal a few 100,00s per day to gain 10% and push the price up to 900%. If there was genuine liquidity, some investors would be selling or buying so the price may go up, down or stabilize on some days, but not straight 10% daily for a whole month! Even MTN, Dangote Cement, Airtel etc. did not achieve that.

Everyone benefits when things are done right in the market.

It sounds like double standard, cos when NCR rose with absolutely zero fundamentals, rose maybe 300% in one month, Mankind2024 praised it, and all, no body complained. Yet it traded thinly then as well.

@Mpeace, JAPAULGOLD is now on full offer.

Sometimes take a trader's insight seriously if you're only speculating.

Take Pa Emma's if you're doing long term.

Take Agba's if all you care about is capital preservation.

pluto09:
I am not in support of what Zich did.
What i am against is the double standards that some people are exhibiting.
There have been some clear cases of manipulation before them which the same people supported just because they hold the stock.
I tried to buy the stock the first 2 days after they were listed purely for speculation with no success so I don't have any single unit of Zich.

My own position as well.

pluto09:
There could have been manipulation and that is not my point.
A number of other companies could as well be guilty of manipulation.
If you care to know the free float of zich,can you tell me the free float of BUA food and BUA cement too?

The free float regulation is an either/or:

20% or N20bn worth

The BUAs qualify based on the N20bn

chimex38:
They didn't comply with all regulations from the start.

I posted their official listing ceremony video with NGX yesterday.

Gave timestamp you can narrow down to watch.

NGX were lenient and gave 3days after listing to comply.

The bulk of the pressure was to their brokerage house rather than Zichis since they were more experienced.

Guess they took it lightly.

Please for the purpose of my enlightenment, what was the requirement they flouted?

Is the 20% free float applicable to the growth board as well?

unite4real:
so you still think outsiders and retails were buying. You seem to not understand the manipulation that was going on.
How can a company keep gaining 10% every trading day for 1 month non stop without retails buying in.

The regulators that suspended them knows better than you and if they felt what was going on was right, they would not have suspended them.

were they not asked to release the free float for trading?

please tell me how much is the free float currently.?

Everything about Zichis was CORPORATE GREED

But the suspension isn't yet a conviction to the company, it's to allow investigation.

I would say the company is innocent until investigations reveal otherwise.

isaacosas01:
Read what u wrote again and see it doesn’t make sense. A company trading for a month with zero liquidity alone is fraudulent, I can also point a few other clear malpractices Zich engage in. This is 2026, make we nor Dey support bad thing because we Dey eat from am.

The reality is that if you were able to buy early you won't be complaining.

Mention the exact rule that Zichis broke.

If the bids are genuine, the company is exxonerated. Only if the investigation shows that they were deliberately building up fake bids(in collaboration with/through their broker(s)), only then could you blame them.

pluto09:
Is there any rules that limit the percentage gains a company can attain in a month??
Did they force anyone to buy?
If people see opportunity in the stock and they are ready to bid the price up by maximum allowed 10% daily why would I complain.

Exactly 💯💯
If NGX isn't satisfied with the outcome, let the simply adjust their rules to prevent such situations.

Based on existing rules, there's no crime in gaining any amount in month.

Itzlinda:
Do you think we are nearing local top or full bear market?

I think the market is due for a pull back.

Some of the bull runs we've been having are tilting the market off sound standings.

We should close the quarter at 185k (1% margin of error)

chimex38:
Thanks for your contribution though, but to understand you clearer,
Do you mean:
in Nigeria, company valuations are averagely 5 times risk free rate(5 x 20)
and
In New York, company Valuations are averagely 20times Risk Free-Rate (20 x 5)
?

Roughly same face value?

Yes sir.
Those multiples are what are considered fair before any premium is added based on sentiments or future potentials.

megawealth01:
GTB at 10 haaaaaaaa

Possible only if 1 USD is now worth just #100.

chimex38:
Went back to read the narrative, u thought you were referring to Ellah.
if you were referring to Zichis.
I agree then with your initial post, you are correct. Some would have bought Zichis if the price was still low and open to retail. So yes, The bashing is as a result of astronomical high price, quite far from any near term forecasted growth.

As for PRESCO and speculation,
If PRESCO was listed outside Ngx onto the international scene, it will probably be above dollar equivalent of ₦2000+ with the World "speculating" on it.

Base valuation in any market is an earnings multiple X, X being the risk free rate.

risk free rate in Nigeria is about 20%, fair valuation is 5x.

In New York, rates are around 5%, 20x valuation is fair there.

Itzlinda:
True. And they should try hard to start another round of rally. Price follows narrative mostly for speculative asset. The narrative can be sweet but if the price isn't appreciating no one will care

Yes ma'am 💯💯💯

Itzlinda:
I have seen people on social media and even Northern brothers becoming interested in Ngx. People have been posting their buy screenshot.

It is obvious the retails are here in large numbers. Is there any chance that we are close to the top?

When you see 96k deals in a single session, you know it's time to turn down the thermostat a bit.

Sustainability is key.

Now, market needs to retreat.
Asi should go back below 185k before end Q1.

pluto09:
What gave people the opportunity to manipulate the share price of NCR

Great question 💯

GeeKudi:
The rally is speculative for obvious reasons of which the veracity of their gold reserve is not part. The cause of panic sell by investors today is also extraneous.

We're saying the same thing.

pluto09:
I don't think listing by introduction is the problem.
We have had many stocks in recent times moving in price with no justifiable fundamentals.
NCR, MECURE, DEAP CAPITAL, FTN among others.
What is needed is clear rules and strict enforcement.

They should be careful with over regulation that will drain liquidity sha.

Cos there's still a situation with Airtelafri that they've failed to address. Let them not add to it.

GeeKudi:
Your assessment is not very fair.
The rally is premised on the released coorporate action signaling the commenecement of gold mining SCHEDULED TO BEGIN AT A LATER DATE. So, it is speculative at best because "what if it does not happen?" or "if there is a shift in the announced date?". It was never a case of whether the gold reserve is 'not well grounded'.
In addition to the events of Ellah failure and Zichis suspension, there was a press release by the regulators warning investors about rising prices of some stocks. There was no way a speculative rally could have survived these combos. Japaul closing in the green today is an indication that people have some level of hope that they will have their first gold pour soon as envisaged. If the MM can put in a little effort to help stabilize the price tomorrow, I see the rally resuming.

When you call it a speculative rally, aren't you exactly making my point??

KarlTom:
Now you are missing it.

The rally was not because the gold was just discovered. Rather it's the commissioning of the gold processing plant + the timeline for commercial production.

Like I said previously, I'm in it for JIJO until fundamentals change...

PS: the bolded is INFERRED resources NOT reserves

It has to be you who is missing it, unless you can point me to an announcement that the gold processing plant has been decommissioned or that the timeline has been changed.

Yoursfaithful:
Ohh now that you've been able to get some units today is no longer 3.75 again..una no go kill me with this una Analysis sef

Both prices can be hit. Maybe months apart, maybe decades apart.

KarlTom:
Why are you comparing gold with brass

I wasn't.

I'm only saying the fact that news of suspension could trip its run indicates shallowness inherent in the run.

$1.8bn of actual gold reserves would have made it a well grounded run.

96,140 deals!!!

Number of deals breaking a new high of about 95k!!!

PuristForest:
japaul is going to 12

You should put a timeframe erstwhile this sort of open projection will ultimately be true sooner or later.

Itzlinda:
Once confidence is lost, it will be difficult to get it bullish again unless there is more positive catalyst

which includes better framing of the narrative around the business.

Mpeace:
Ok. You are right!

I know, I see the numbers

last I checked 4.09 is about 18.2% less than #5.