₦airaland Forum

nosa2:
Guy, no go believe enter bush oh!!

Anyway all this your talk na to deflect from the main matter...MAKE I SEND AZA

I prefer to believe that.

Only short sighted people would prefer to believe a smaller figure and then start thinking they've arrived when their portfolio hits N50m.

With my thinking, even at N200m , I know i'm only just starting cos I need to catch Agba before he reaches N10bn.

That thinking only helps me stay motivated, why do you think there's a downside to it?

There are people who feel intimidated or get jealous when they realize that people here have portfolios over N50bn.

I'm not one of such people, I don't suffer from such foolishness.

If pa Emma reads that someone here has N50bn, don't you think he will realize he still need to grow his current N5bn portfolio?

Agbalowomeri:
You need to buy some sense of humour from the market. It's not overpriced

The sellers of the humor should add emoji labels so we can see the wares more easily na.

Like 😁😁😁
Or even just 😁

Agbalowomeri:
It simply means na institutional investors dey hold am. Retail investors buy and sell over- or underpriced stocks everyday

It also just means NGX is not efficient enough to facilitate free trade flows in the market.

A stock like Airtel should be doing N2bn in daily trades easily. That's over N500bn in a year.

And N1.5bn in potential fees to the NGX, even the shareholders should raise this matter.

And it's not just Airtel alone, it has happened to almost every stock worth above N500 at some point.

nosa2:
Una get money for this place oh. Bros make I send aza?

The average portfolio size here is perhaps N500m.

My current portfolio is less than that.

Something never ceases to amaze me:

Why guys like you with portfolios in billions or at least hundreds of millions will see 200k as money when it shoould simply be a rounding error on your account.

I just don't understand.

The least amount that should even make you guys think of figures being brandished should be at least tens of millions.

I just never understand.

Just like at my current portfolio level, someone mentioning 20k wouldn't be a relevant amount to me.

Someone has been consistently trying to buy a 1m units of a N2270 at N2497 and you think they agree with you that it's overpriced?

When you see a stock on heavy full bid with no one willing to sell, consistently for more than 1 year, what it means is that it's underpriced in your market. Why you would think otherwise is strange.

@KarlTom

KarlTom:
Actually, IF it is overpriced on the LSE, then the NGX has nothing to do.
Let's stick with the bolded...

If it's overpriced on the lse, then it will simply trade freely at 2000 on the NGX.

The fact that no one agrees with your overpriced theory is why the stock doesn't sell on NGX.

The problem is peculiar to NGX and the fix isn't hard.

I held 19107 units of EUNISELL at N149.95 at the start of today's session.

I panicked sell everything at 135 only for someone to come clear all the offers at the last minute and close the stock at N158

By selling too early I lost N23 per share making a total of around 439k in just one stock in a single day.

Another 100k loss on Cadbury and losses on other tickers too.


Am I bothered?

I would be if I was a beginner like I was in 2020.

Is my portfolio down by 700k today?

Not quite.

I'm still up over 200k on a day as funny as this.
😁😎

These figures are significant given that my current portfolio isn't so large.

To rephrase more clearly.

No one is saying the NGX should set a fair price.

Interpreting my post like that is faulty.

All I'm saying is, when a stock hasn't had a price movement in 3 months, relax you 100k rule so the market can price it fairly.

If it's overpriced, we bid it down, if it's underpriced, we bid it up, and thus have a more robust market.


As it is now, Airtel is as good as delisted on the exchange.


The relaxation is actually only needed for high priced stocks as 100k units on penny stocks isn't material.

KarlTom:
Random Thought

How did you determine the fair value of AIRTEL?
What IF it is actually OVERPRICED on the LSE?

makes no difference. If it's overpriced, the market should be able to correct it as with GEREGU.

your questions relate to something else.

My point is that NGX should not allow a stock stay stuck for more than 3 months overpriced or underpriced.

Agbalowomeri:
NGX cannot change rules because two stocks refused to change prices. Let market participants decide. You can't force people to buy or to sell

No one is forcing you to buy or sell, we're saying when a stock is stuck at a level beyond its fair value, an efficient market should have mechanisms in place to avoid illiquidity which is only due to wrong pricing that the market won't allow participants correct.

If you think all an exchange needs to do is list a stock and go to sleep, I think you're still holding on to old outdated knowledge.

Raider76:
I take it that you either don't know what you are talking about, or you don't want engage in a meaningful conversation. Either way is toxic for me so I close here.

All you had to do was learn to understand context first before jumping to make irrelevant comments.

pluto09:
I have just taken a look at their financial statements which was never done before.
I think I agree with your submission.

Okay sir.

lasisi:
Airtel actually caused this problem. They bought back their shares throughout last year and very minimal unit is now available to the trading public to sell.

You're only explaining why the price is high in london, which may or may not be true. I remember they always bought at market price, hardly a premium. lots of tranches were bought at 115p,the share price didn't sky rocket then. the buy back alone may not be what pushed it to 370.

also seplat had thesame issue for almost 6 months, dangecem too. geregu too.

these one didn't do buy back.

the issue is that a stock can get overvalued or undervalued for whatever reason, what i'm saying here is not why the valuatin happpened. what i'm saying is that ngx shouldnt allow the situation continue beyond 3 months. their indifference to the situation doesn't help the market.

pluto09:
There are no sellers so the price is stuck.
The company should just do a stock split or give bonus of 100 or 1000 for 1.

you think if they split, it will only happen on ngx?

if they did 10 for 1 for instance, each stock would just simply now be worth N227 on NGX and N700 in london, would you be willing to sell 100k units of a stock worth 700 at 250??

ojesymsym:
Okay, based on this submission, the problem then is more with the price disparity between the London market and the Ngx than the 100k rule.
It looks more like the Nigerian investors are holding on tight to their merchandise and not willing to sell, which then means the primary poor liquidity challenge.

you're still refusing to see the obvious point:
the stock has traded 8 units today at 2497 (the maximum possible price), but the reference price is stuck on 2270 cos of the 100k. without that requirement, the refernce price would have gone higher and the gap would have closed.

why you refuse to understand this is best known to you.

when this problem startedthe disparity was much smaller (like 2400 vs 3600) the gap would have taken less time to close.

to be clear, I'm not saying the 100k volume should be suspended altogether, it should only be temporarily suspended if a stoc hasn't had a movement n 3 months.

without such adjustment to the rule, airtel might as well just delist from ngx, cos they'll never ever trade volume again

Agbalowomeri:
Is it the price you are worried about or lack of buyers? As long as there buyers at the current price, the market fine. Which is different from GEREGU where there are no buyers

you're wrong!!

Lack of sellers in this case is even worse.

geregu is the fault of the management for not having fundamentals that justify the price. yet with my proposal, the market just simply corrects the overvaluaton.

airtel is a sound stock, but ngx won't let the price move up cos of some rule.

an efficient market should make buying and selling smooth. revise rules when necessary to drive market participation.

the rule amendment i propose also fixes geregu.

only difference is that geregu comes back to N300 while airtel goes to N7000, correct pricing driving eficiency.

if airtel decides to delist now on the basis on lean activity (less than 10k units traded for an entire year) who gains anything from that decision??

Streetinvestor2:
That means airtel is so cheap on ngx.So nobody wan sell in one unit. I didn't even notice that all this time

Yes.

Raider76:
Please explain ro me what market inefficiency is and if fixing conditions guiding price movement may not be one of its causes.

Gemini is free to use on Google

Raider76:
To appreciate the impact of the 100k trade rule please compare the daily price movement of SEPLAT on the NGX and LSE.

You're commenting without context.

A market that leaves a stock stuck at an unrealistic price level for a whole year is inefficient, that's what you need to first understand, then you can comment.

ojesymsym:
Maybe I don't understand the root cause but if I think I understood you, you were saying the 100k rule is preventing the stock price to move up or down. At its present price, the amount required to achieve the 100k volume is large.
Seplat also suffers from something similar even though that one moves in baby steps.
Or is there more to it?

Yes there's more to it, and I've mentioned it here before

The same AIRTEL shares currently sells for over N7000 in London, and you expect anyone to be willing to sell at 2k in Lagos?

So every Airtel share you sell in Lagos, you're selling at 5k below market value.

If all that's needed for a price movement is 1k units, people can easily sacrifice N5m to move the price, but at N100k units, why would anyone willingly burn N500m

ojesymsym:
Isn't it the responsibility of Airtel to consider a stock split rather than NGX bending the rules for them?

I don't think you understand the root cause.

Airtel isn't the stock with the highest price on the exchange.

It's a problem that affected DANGCEM in 2024 as well.

SonofElElyonRet:

Meanwhile you should consider changing your own username..

I second

Streetinvestor2:
I expect those class of stocks to hit thr all time high of last Yr plus like extra 30% further in my projection by q2 results

This is for fundamental sound stocks only..my opinion

Does this mean you will pick some units?

Abi you're still beefing Tinubu even though he doesn't have any stake in most of those tickers?


I think we should just keep making money when we sight opportunities regardless of what politics are.

Even Agba sef will soon terminate his fixed deposit.

Streetinvestor2:
Those are the ones I said I believe the anticipated full yr results of 2025 can continue to fuel thr price. Read my post again .For 2026 full yr is a different game because of anticipated elections

We're saying the same thing be that.

Streetinvestor2:
Na only anticipated full yr results for some stocks I believe can sustain the green in them

What do you anticipate for MTNN full year vs 2024, how about the cement guys or ARADEL.

Even the banks.

I think they will all print pretty.

ogawisdom:
I knew it was just new year excitement, it will be massive red by Friday. There are too many newbies chasing stocks and they will learn their first lesson in the market soonest.

Don't chase a flying stock

You have joined Agba

The market has enough momentum to carry through January.

Stockhunter:
Awesome i observed you mentioned that stamp duty will no longer be charged on the ngx. It is still being charged. What was your source for the information.

My source is Taiwo Oyedele via an interview on Channels or so.

That stamp duty thing probably concerns me more than you o.

I should have saved about N40k month to date, but it seems they haven't implemented it.

I called my brokers about it last year, they said they would look into it.

But NGX people are lax these days so maybe that's why the implementation is slow.

I deposited 500k to Morgan yesterday, they still removed N50 stamp duty even though they no longer should.


Let's just hope Taiwo was speaking the truth, (although I asked Ai and it corroborated). Then it'll only be for us to wait for brokers to push an update that eliminates it.

Bigdeal01:
NSE most of the time is a big paradox. Check all junk stocks you are cautioned not to buy and see how much they have delivered in the last 3Months.

Austinlaz has done over 160%.
Alex,over 200% .N1m here would have become N3m
Deep cap
Nsltech
Daarcom
Conhall
Royalex
Ellahlakes

The ones with all the fundamentals stay lagging.
Most of us here are after capital appreciation as dividend most times is even guaranteed. When they do pay; just 2 to 10%.

I personally need my bags to swell 3-5x. Dividend can wait.

Remember AS0 SAVINGS 0

ARADEL has pulled back the idex. Deals ab0ve 50k again t0day. At this rate retail participati0n will s00n exceed 40% 0f the market.

presiade:
The delayed price stream probably has to do with the stockbrookers' subscription. Most of them are likely going for the cheaper delayed feed from NGX https://marketdataapiv3.ngxgroup.com/portal/getstarted/index.

Not likely.

More likely to be a scaling issue with the NGX.

My brokers stream just fine any day deals are less than 30k.

The issue only happens when so many deals are happening in the market.

This is a market that typically did 5k deals per day up to around 2023.

Now we're seeing 50k, it looks like they haven't prepared enough for that.


It's to be sitting inside A. C doing nothing.

Airtel has been stuck for over 1 years now, for a company that has no problem other than an inefficient market

Streetinvestor2:
ok..half bread is better than nothing oh.
Is it that ngx is not aware and foreign investors will be looking at the country as unserious people. When the ngx will be showing live trade abroad and the whole world will be seeing time gap.. Must this country be disgraced in everything .Abi the lag is only local for nigeria users

I've sent an email to the NGX contact centre. I copied my 2 brokers, the CSCS, and the SEC.

I also raised the issue of AIRTEL suggesting to them that if a stock has not had a price movement for up to 3 months, they need to suspend the 100k units requirement on it so that we can avoid unnecessary illiquidity, hopefully they read the email and act.

Streetinvestor2:
@awesomej ,I hope u are trading today because the lag still dey today. I hope village people never remember ngx for this 2026..lol
Person fit go place buy only to realise he could have bought cheaper for people buying

Not as smooth, but I'm managing. N8m traded so far.
It should have be N12m - N15m