₦airaland Forum

zamirikpo:
I totally agree with u.....so it's safe to say that things may remain relatively stable for now barring any sharp fluctuations in oil price.


Hmmmm....Naija

Yes sir. Oil will find support above $60 though-by God's grace.

RealityShot:
https://www.nairaland.com/5184969/emefiele-smiles-buhari-congratulates-him

AwesomeJ...

is this good or great?

for me it means all is bad for Nigerians and Tbills rate not looking up at all


Emefiele and dollar pegging...hmm...

Which one? His smiles or his reappointment?

Do you mean is reappointment or currency management style is bad? (pegging?)


Whoever is calling for the floating of the currency is either joking or has ulterior motives.

Imagine if the CBN announces tomorrow morning that it would be ending its supplies and interventions at the FX market, and would be leaving the currency to fully float,

Do you think this month will end before dollar hits #450? maybe #1,000 by December. Then someone who's been planning to buy a $10,000 car to celebrate Christmas will realize that his money is only enough for a tricycle. Do you really think such a terrible situation is what helps the economy?

They argue that we should float to attract FPIs, just check the over subscriptions we've been having since January, are the FPIs not coming already?

It's only our equities market they seem to be abandoning, but by my estimates, less than 0.1% of the population trade actively enough to benefit from any strong market performance the the FPIs may induce.

When more than 80% of your goods and raw materials are locally produced, that's when you talk about floating, not that some ignorant politician will be talking about floating a currency when he probably missed or failed classes on basic Economics.

Meanwhile, reserves are breaking above $45bn this week, based on pattern observed on CBN's website.

Happy night rest to us all.

tritritri:
It got to 46 as of JAN 2018 and i made a kill on the nse.

U'all shd be smiling if he is retained but many nigerians will buy enuf t.b which might lead to futher drop in rate.

guess the big guns are aware he will be retained hence rate keep droppin due to excess liquidity.

IMO ..

modified : 4/25/2018 the reserve was sittin at $ 47B. AND and of today at 44B...

At $44.8bn, it's actually more like $45bn rather than 44.

I'd say a $2bn drop despite the December crash in oil prices, and the pre-election FPIs panic exit isn't so bad.


The way I see it is: $41bn in March, $44bn in May. $3bn gains in 2 months is healthy.

chigo4u:
No it will never. And for as long as Emefiele keeps stabilizing the naira artificially. I dont even think it will get to 70 not to talk of 100. Even 60 would be remarkable.

Never is a strong word.

You should only make assertions like that if you've already seen into the distant future.

Plus, we don't really need the pessimism now.

Agbaletu:
awesomeJ is a Prophet.
With this new development, I think I should convert my small Dollars to Naira and invest in Treasury Bills. Emefiele will keep Dollar at N360 for a very long time which is good for the economy, but very bad for me. Having bought over 20K$ at N400, It is high time I counted my losses and move on.
Nigeria = 1
Agbaletu = 0

Life goes on!

I guy the real loss is the interest you missed for almost 2 years. It's only necessary to let those funds start sweating it out for you sir.

chigo4u:
$100 billion dollar reserves will never happen lol

Sure it will sir.

chigo4u:
So the dollar is gonna remain stable @360 for another 5 years? Interesting

or even gain a little.

340 may happen.

But we want a $100bn dollar reserves first.

For those who trade oil futures, $70 is gonna turn a support for the next few months.

joseph1013:
I cannot think of a single person whose life was made worse because they started requiring evidence for claims before accepting them as a core belief.

I wonder where we got the idea that believing things without evidence is a good thing?

I'll help you:

The thousands that have their lives cut abruptly cos they were too arrogant to get s spiritual covering;

The millions who die of incurable ailments when they could have been healed by faith;

The plenty more millions who suffer needs cos they don't know the God that makes one richly abound;

The billions who are now weeping and gnashing their teeth in agony in the underworld.

Those are folks whose lives are/have become worse for failing to accept the simplicity of faith.

From oil prices to stock prices to exchange rate and now to CBN governor.

Being spiritually powerful is awesome!

EMEFIELE IS INDEED STAYING FOR A SECOND TERM.



Before you start thinking it's coincidence, I made similar posts when oil dropped to $49 in December last year, and people thought the dollar would surge.


https://nairametrics.com/2019/05/09/cbns-godwin-emefiele-is-allegedly-returning-for-a-2nd-term/

Seun:
We didn't come from the apes that exist today, such as chimps and gorillas. We came from apes that existed a very long time ago: ancient apes. Modern apes such as chimpanzees and gorillas came from the same ancient apes. You won't ask such questions once you understand it.

It'd be better you replaced the "we came" with "I came"

You can claim your origin to a monkey, a pig or even a dog. it's your life.

But don't be silly thinking your ignorance accords you any right to make generalizations.

Obviously you're of a different human specie-the gorilla offspring type, that perhaps explains your funny thinking pattern. What more could one expect of a gorilla?

Seun:
Is it different, though? Let’s see what the Bible says in Leviticus 25:44-46

1) Your male and female slaves are to come from the nations around you; from them you may buy slaves.
2) You may also buy some of the temporary residents living among you and members of their clans born in your country, and they will become your property.
3) You can bequeath them to your children as inherited property and you can make them slaves for life,


How is this better than slavery in America? The slaves came from foreign countries (mostly Africa) and were enslaved for life. Children born to those slaves were also enslaved for life. They were traded and passed on to children as property. So what was the difference?

You're just quoting one portion of scriptures without a complete understanding.

You make it sound as if God implied that the Israelites couldn't be bought as slaves because He considers them superior.


No. The only reason He said they couldn't be bought as slaves was cos He said they were already His own slaves. Not superiority. He wouldn't share them with anyone else.-Lev 25:42.

Meanwhile, you should modify the Bible chapter you quoted to 25. It' not 24.

The other issue of buying and passing on slaves is similar to buying, transferring and loaning out football players.

It wasn't anything inhumane, erstwhile the Bible wouldn't permit it.

Abraham was going to leave his entire estate to his slave. so they weren't treated badly as you presume.

Anyone who treated a slave badly at that time was only acting out his personal evil intentions and not any instruction from the Bible.

Seun:
How do you differentiate between a person ‘masquerading as an angel of light’ and a ‘real angel of light’?

Kind of like detecting a fake currency note from a genuine one.

You don't just have a shallow knowledge of the genuine note (I know there's Zik's image on it).

Shallow wouldn't cut it. You have to know the depths of all it's features.

Having equipped yourself with this right and adequate knowledge, then you proceed to subject the fake note or in this case, the masquerading angel to the right checks.

There's no way the spirit will pass all the test you put it through. if it does pass all, then in it infact isn't a masquerading but rather, a real angel.

Just like if a supposed fake note ends up passing all the right checks, it'll be logically concluded that the note isn't at all fake.

Seun:
How do you know that the spirit in you is the spirit of God and not a false spirit masquerading as the spirit of God, or just your imagination?

Simple.


How do you know it's the Spirit of God?

His promptings and leadings always conform to the Word and standards of God.


How do you know it's not just your imagination?

When the prompting or knowing is beyond what could have come about by human knowledge.

There are times however- and a lot too- when the leadings are from our own renewed minds as Christians. That also is very welcome.

When there was a severe drought in Gerar. There were two options Isaac had:

To migrate to Egypt- from his head

To stay, and actually cultivate a dry ground- God's spirit.

It would be clear to him that the latter could not have been his own imagination, because it makes absolutely no sense.

So distinguishing isn't really as hard as you may be imagining.

TotoNaRubber:
It is better to keep your dollar and probably convert 50 percent of it to Naira n invest in TB. Nigerian economy is in the biggest mess ever, they said the reserves is on $44 billion but Nigeria owe more than $70 billion in bonds, tb, sukuk etc

You should only mention the external component of the debt which currently stands at $25bn. Annual debt service cost is under $2bn.(for external debts)

Domestic debts are not a threat to exchange rate.

So it's actually $2bn debt service vs $44bn reserves.


The way you said $70bn debt with a $44bn reserves would paint a fairly inaccurate picture.

aremso:
your brother should not try such ooo many may not still know much about FO in my own opinion. It goes beyond surface paper analysis

That's what I'm saying now. If he buys and FO decides they're ploughing the sales proceeds to acquiring some assets or deleverage. No dividend. Market hears that and sends the stock price sub 20, Wouldn't that be high blood pressure?

laydap:
Dear House .. We should watch out for FO as something very positive may be on the way. With the proposed sale of the Upstream, Foreign and Power Businesses, these have been presented on the 2018 FYE Balance Sheet as ASSET CLASSIED FOR SALE at N91.7Billion and there is a N31.6Billion as the corresponding LIABILITIES DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ASSETS CLASSIFED AS HELD FOR SALE. When the Sales are concluded, these give a NET of N60Billion which will surely go higher as the Balance sheet valuation is book value and market/sale value should exceed book value. The balance of this NET of N60Billion when the portion for Non-Controlling Interests are taken out leaves a very huge balance that will be attributable to Owners of the Company. Considering Femi is selling down his stakes in FO, then this NET attributable to Owners of the Company should be paid as SPECIAL DIVIDEND from sale of Assets. So we should be looking at a very major special dividend very very soon from FO which could be the highest dividend yield NSE will see in a long long while. If these sale has been concluded within Q1, then the special dividend could be announced with the Q1 result... N7/N10 or even a higher sum as Special dividend?

I will appreciate comments from my big Ogas in the house..

Buying in anticipation of this dividend is still trading on hope.

The way you've analysed it now, what if I convince my brother to sell his house, and even get an extra 50m facility from the bank to put on this stock. so that we buy at #25, and collect #10 dividend.

I think there may be other plans they'll have for those proceeds.


-pay special dividends
-deleverage
-acquire new assets

DOLLARTEX:
chams chai,76 million bids no single offer.chai!

Hope you didn't bail yet sha. Any expectation above 26k on this stock is risky. So if you ask me, I'd say exit at least half at that price early on Monday. Don't wait till market closed as it may close flat or lower.

Meanwhile that 76m bid is just about 13,000 units of NESTLE. so not really something huge

Brent now above $70.

needful:
Am tired, look what they paid today. They didnt pay me on the 3rd but jumped to 4th. See what I got on the 4th.

Mathematicians, help me calculate this things, because am tired already

Those figures in your snapshots (1770.78 and 1292.17) are not your daily interests o. On those stated dates (2nd April and 4th April) the fund bought some instruments, and those figures you saw as additional subscriptions are your portions of the interest the fund got from those investments.

so on the 3rd when it seemed like there wasn't any addition, it means they probably didn't buy any new assets.

The actual way to get your interest for the day would be to simply subtract your old balance from your current balance

5,560,292.56-5,558,503.76= 1,788.8.

Reserves eventually closed March at $44.43bn (up c $2.1bn)

Brent is only 50 cents shy of $70. ($69.50 at 10:20pm WAT)

aremso:
my inner mind warned me to bail out of uba with my gain yesterday that today would be bloody and i obeyed him, bailed out at 7.75 and the stock closed at 7.50 the ex div would be 6.85 and if market continue like this 6.50 is possible.

so UBA's markdown is tomorrow?

Except NESTLE reverses from this its 1400. The 30k support may get broken tomorrow.
Imagine Nestle losing close to 12% in just 2 days

MonkeyHunter:
Just looked at Chams result again and the net cash on their books is N120k (after deducting the bank overdraft of N111.402m from Cash and cash equivalent). Implication is that they might need a loan of N150m to pay the proposed dividend.

imagine if one was trading solo without the beautiful insights of folks here. someone like me doesn't like reading so you're being of so much help digging out details such as this.

Kudos.

Chibuking81:
No more chams advertisement here again, let them come and do it themselves, the wheelbarrow pusher sometimes get support. There result is still in doubt, I will bail out the little unit I have with them, anytime from now.

Beautiful!

If Buffet gets it wrong sometimes, who are we?

Chibuking81:
Not monkey hunting, but trying to help others discover the hidden treasure.

Sounds like you're trying to convince people to agree with you so that you can be convinced yourself that you haven't made a mistake.

(No offence sir).


3k is superb on a 20k stock. The only issue is after collecting the dividend (13.5% yield net of WHT) It may be months, years or decades before you're able to sell and recoup your capital.

Cos I doubt if anyone would be willing to buy so much of it after markdown.

Meanwhile if this stock stays in the 20-22k range till qualification date, I'm wondering how it will be marked since 20k is the new floor.

Reserves now at $44.34bn (as at Mar 28), Brent has gained more than 2% today. it's currently trading above $69 and may cross the $70 mark before the week is out.

So, there's some pretty huge comfort for the MPC currently.
My Outlook for this quarter is for T-bills discount to be between 11.5 and 13.2% for the 364 day papers.

The only major factor that may alter the market now is if there's a change in the CBN's leadership by June.

364 days at 12.8% is 14.66% yield
182 days at 12% is 12.77% yield
and 91days at 10.5% is 10.75%

MMFs at 12.5-13% are available alternatives for the short term. Those funds locked in some instruments already at 15%, so they should be able to support their current yield levels for at least one more quarter.


Happy New month to us all, welcome to Q2.

RealityShot:
well, this will be great news for those who have access to Bank loans naa...& hopefully they will drop prices of what they import!!!


btw...see this..


Micro Pension Plan
https://www.pencom.gov.ng/micro-pension/


see how scanty the info on pencom's site is? What does that tell you?


well, i will tell you something;
it is better you contribute part of your income (no matter how small) to money market fund and/or Treasury bills..


than to give pencom your life's savings.


why?
well, when it is time to collect, they will show you you no longer OWN the money; it is they who will make all the decisions and give you WHATEVER they deem fit, WHEN they like!!!


BEWARNED.

But the 8.5% is compulsory now. And even if you could opt out, you'd be losing out of the employer match which is free money.

The voluntary contribution is what I wouldn't subscribe to, just as I wouldn't subscribe to equity mutual funds. Basically cos those fund managers will underperform, and yet pay themselves fat from contributors' funds.

I wish they'd make pension optional though. Those who want should do it, while the rest of us can be allowed to invest our 17-20% ourselves.

Reserves now above $44bn for the first time this year.
https://www.cbn.gov.ng/intops/Reserve.asp

Agbaletu:
Unite4real is a Prophet, he saw it all, but we thought he had made a mistake by locking up his funds in Sukuk.

He said then that time will tell whether or not he made a mistake. Time is definitely proving him right now.

Bosses like Unite4real already locked in Sukuk at 16.4%. The rest of us are now hoping for 13%

GonFreecss1:
You must be very powerful. How would you influence things in that direction?

spiritually.

Realityshot, I forgot to mention.

I want Emefiele to get a second term. I'd like for him to yet be there while we have the transition from an importer to an exporter of refined petroleum products.

Some folks had oil above $100 a barrel, there wasn't much they saved from it. instead we heard reports that as much as $20bn wasn't remitted by the NNPC.

these guys have done quite well with a $70 price regime. so i'd like to see what he'll do with the exchange rate, when fuel imports are no longer in the picture.

It's very likely he gets another term as I am trying to influence things in that direction.

RealityShot:
Chai...this crossed fingers didn't work Oh!


i should "tight yansh"!


15% will be very scarce this year O!


with USA crude hitting higher production
and OPEC (especially Saudi) cutting production ..


oil price ain't looking down right now at all...


hmmm... Which way can we head next, or do we stick with tbills and hope the next CBN gov/Buhari/Fin. Minister makes some real blunder... Lol

I think average yield for this year may not exceed 14%.

We opened this month with $42.3bn in reserves. We're likely to end at $44.3bn or higher, so we can afford to be proud.

Oil prices are also behaving as you've mentioned.

Bonds and mutual funds are available alternatives for the risk averse. Some of us who are more aggressive love equities.


It's important that people take the advice here whenever it's stated that we lock up for long tenors.

I however acknowledge the fact that some of us who locked up earlier have new funds now that need to be placed.

Markets are in cycles