FreedomfromtheT: I see Peter Obi winning tomorrow's presidential election on first ballot. I see him winning the popular vote and also winning or at least scoring 25% in the following states: 1. Abia 2. Anambra 3. Ebonyi 4. Enugu 5. Imo 6. AkwaIbom 7. Bayelsa 8. Cross River 9. Delta 10 Edo 11 Rivers 12 Lagos 13 Ogun 14 Ondo 15 Ekiti 16 Oyo 17 Benue 18 Nassarawa 19 Plateau 20 Kogi 21 Taraba 22 Adamawa 23 Gombe 24 Kaduna and 25 Abuja. By the grace of God, Peter Obi is Nigeria's incoming president.
My fear in this analysis is whether Obi will get the 25% votes in the States like Gombe, Ekiti, Oyo, Kogi and Adamawa. I pray God will do It.
fkelly: Akwa ibom Bayelsa Cross River Delta Edo Rivers.
My dear Southerners, let's take our revenge.
In 2015 the westerners connived with northerners and stole our mandate from our brother Goodluck Jonathan.
Only the Easterners gave us 95% vote even far more than we gave our self. Today their son is on the ballot paper. we will return the favour this time. Vote OBI
Don't be deceived by party, because when they stole our mandate they ganged up as one, to make sure they destabilise us, therefore as 25-02-2023 comes we will pay them back.
Come to think of it, how many northerners and westerners have taxable and meaningful investment in the southern region outside stolen minaral resources, they don't even buy land not to talk of building here. Do northerners even rent apartments? They don't even have faith in us.
Therefore na person way scratch my back I go scratch him own. All south south vote is for Obi.
SouthSouth shouldn't only Vote for Peter Obi because he is from Southeast but, because he has the competence, capacity,credibility, character ,track-records, physical and mental energy. I will vote for Peter Obi because of those qualities he has . Age is on his side.
Fredge: If a presidential candidate wins the majority of the votes but doesn't have 25% in 24 states, and his closest rival has 25% in 24 states but doesn't win the majority of the votes, what happens?
Both of them will go run-off Election. In a situation where there is a Candidate who scored the majority of votes without the national spread( i.e 25% in at least 24 States) and there are two Candidates who meets the national spread, there will be Run-off between the Candidate with the Majority votes and the Candidate who meets the national spread with higher Votes.
MadeInTokyo: Jungle don mature for APC...they have see defeat ahead for them on Saturday APC Governors have given up already on the Presidential election this Saturday Bye Bye APC..Never again
They are bunch of criminals. It's now hv they started caring for the poor masses. I say no to vote buying. Let everyone have a level playing field to test his popularity.
post=121135728: Kano will be shutdown for Kwankwaso tomorrow for his final rally before Saturday election
This Man is doing the God's work for the OBIDIENTS. It's now clear that nobody will inherit Buhari's massive Votes in the Northwest and Northeast. This year's election is gonna be different from the previous ones. I pray for Free, Fair and Credible Election.
[quote author=EMMNIG post=121135324][/quote]I didn't know that OBI is so popular in Kaduna State. If your projection occurs, it will be a great one. Please, can u predict LP performance in other states in the Northwest ?
Dear patriotic Nigerians, this is an independent results analysis conducted by me based on the following yardstick.
First, Take note that I am a detribalized Yoruba with mother from the North and married from the east so I'm connected to every part of Nigeria, though I will vote one candidate of my choice.
This election will be based on the following. 1. Failure of the ruling party. 2. Hardship/hunger in the country. 3. Ethnicity. 4. Religion. 5. Internal party problems. 6. Equity, Fairness and Justice. 7. Integrity of party candidates. 8. Decision of the youth to prove a point. 9. Insecurity.
Failure of the ruling party APC. Its on record that APC administration has failed woefully. Their performance is abysmal and as such the masses have development resentment for most things associated with APC.
Hardship/Hunger in Nigeria. Food is the most important need of man as such, A hungry man is an angry man. There has been so much hunger and hardship in Nigeria and a large number of the voting population believe that the hunger is induced /caused by APC. These people because they're hungry, they're also very angry with APC and as such will vote against the party that is starving them almost to death.
Ethnicity. Each ethnicity will consider factors affecting them, however this time ethnicity will not contribute more than 5% to Th masses decision to vote for any candidate or party since hunger and party knows does not respect your tribe.
Religion.
Religion will play a very important role in the presidential election because of the Muslim+Muslim APC ticket which is against federal character of the republic of Nigeria. Sitting the above, the Christians of Nigeria sees that as an affront on Christianity considering the fact that a northern Muslim is finishing his eight years term by may 2023, therefore christians believes its wise that the Presidential position should go to a Christian person from Southern Nigeria to sustain the unity of Nigeria. There are Christians is reasonable numbers across all states of Nigeria and the believe its the turn of Christians to rule, as such their votes are going to a christian candidate.
Internal party problems. Some of the major parties like PDP and APC have been having serious internal problems within their ranks and as such its expected that some of the aggrieved members will decamp to other parties or stay and sabotage the party from within.
Equity, Fairness and Justice. A lot of nigerians are of the opinion that An Igbo which is one of the major ethnic groups in Nigeria should be given the opportunity to rule the country since they have supported the Yoruba's, the Hausa and Ijaw to rule Nigeria. Most nigerians feel it will be a great injustice if if Nigeria continues to marginalize the Igbo and prevent them from ruling in a country they're part of. They're also of the opinion that allowing an Igbo to rule Nigeria will douse the agitation by the separatist group in the eastern part of Nigeria who have valid reasons to agigate to get the government attention.
Integrity of each partys candidate. A good percentage of the voting population having seen failures of the current APC leaderahip, will definitely go to a better candidate with proven integrity. In the Presidential election of 2023, its only one candite amongst the 3 major contenders that have proven integrity therefore naturally, votes will swing his way.
Decision of the Youth to prove a point. The young generation of nigerians will want to prove to the older generation that they have the numbers to change any under performing party or elected officers.
Insecurity. The next thing people will consider before voting is insecurity. The ruling party as the people said have failed in securing the populace. As a result most people within the voting population will vote a younger and agile presidential candidate who has the abilities to traverse every part of Nigeria to see and solve these security challenges instead of setting up useless committess up and down.
Therefore with the above and bellow, you can see clearly that the winner of the 25 February Presidential election will be Labour Party Of Nigeria.
Behold my fellow countrymen, this above result projections will be exactly or very close to the result inec will announce.
Congratulate whichever party that has the highest score here for nothing will change the result. G DELE USMAN
. I'm OBIdient. U really overrated LP Party and underrated APC and PDP in many States. PETER OBI will not be happy with this kind of Analysis because u are not telling him the truth. The truth remains that this Election will be a very tight one between LP,APC, PDP if it is free and fair.
Aboki99: Peter Obi's supporters are cock-a-hoop about what they see as the highest chance of their hero winning Nigeria's presidency next Saturday.
Are their optimism and excitement factually/statistically justified?
Let's do the arithmetic.
PO's strongholds are the SE and the SS, two zones with the least number of votes!. Granted that PO can scavenge some votes in the SW, but it's crystal clear that Tinubu will carry the day in SW eventually.
In the north, the Obidients rely on pockets of votes from northern xtians. But are these enough? Not at all. Since 1999, the northern xtians have never voted along the same line as the Muslim core North. For example they have never voted for Buhari. Yet, in 2014 and 2019 Buhari was able to win signifying the political insignificance of this voting bloc to a candidate that can garner votes in the core north and other parts (Tinubu?). Similarly, PMB was able to win elections without the votes of the SE and SS in both 2014 and 2019, which also trivializes the importance of these two Obi's main strongholds in determining the ultimate presidential winner.
So, for Obi to win the presidential election, he would, as a matter of necessity, need votes from Muslim voters in the north. But does he look set to get it? The truthful but bitter answer for Obidients to accept is No with a capital N. Problem is, the Obidients want to market Obi in the day as a pan-Nigerian candidate but brandish the news of Obi's endorsement by popular pastors/Churches whose altars Obi has turned to campaign platforms. This, rightly so, confuses the average northern Muslim voter and makes them pause to ask some legitimate questions[ Imagine Buhari going to the mosques to campaigns in 2014 or even 2019, what with the reaction be like from voters in say the SE?)
Not even the votes in Plateau and Benue, two states Obidients have also placed high, convoluted hope on can do anything to offset the bloc northern muslim votes. Here, the Obidients will conveniently bring up the issue of Kwankwaso who, as they argue passionately, will magically divide these votes for them to conquer and win the race. In making this highfalutin assumptions, the Obidients forget two crucial facts: 1) the muslim northern voters are never known, throughout Nigeria's political history, to cultivate the habit of wasting their votes. The average northern voter might not have gone to school but they're the most sophisticated; 2) Despite pulling some intimidating crowds in a couple of states esp in the nroth, the truth is Kano is Kwankwaso's main sphere of influence. Even there, I can't bet a penny that he'll win a simple majority for reasons adumbrated above.
Now, my only concern is what the reaction of the Obidients will be when the bubble of their alternative reality finally bursts. I hope they'll peacefully pick up the pieces, lick their wounds, move on and say "better luck next time".
Personally, I do not see any credible candidate worthy of my votes among the current pack of wolfs, but I know for sure that this 2023 election is a contest between Tinubu and Atiku. Yet, while I know this for a fact, I also have to admit that the outcome of this contest is highly unpredictable. Tinubu has 22 APC governors behind his back, huge war chest, media control and so on. Atiku has the support of some powerful members of PMB's kitchen cabinet, considerable war chest, and some current public angst to latch onto.
If you press me hard to rate the chances of the major contenders, I'll come up with something like these: 1. Tinubu 35% 2. Atiku 34 3. Obi 20% 4. Kwankwaso 9%
May God choose the best candidate for us.
I don't know why u people are still thinking that 2023 will be like the previous presidential election. PETER OBI is the only candidate who stands better chance of getting massive votes from two geopolitical Zones: South East and SouthSouth unlike the other Candidates. Obi will also do well in the North Central and southwest. Nobody is gonna inherit Buhari's 12m Votes in the North this time. It will be shared between APC ,PDP,NNPP and it's very clear that LP will certainly get Christians votes in the core north. Abuja,Benue,plateau, Taraba, Kaduna, Nasarawa,Kogi, Adamawa are the major states in the North Peter Obi will do well. Moreso, the BVAS will do God's work for Peter Obi. The era of writing results in the core North to favor a particular Candidate has gone and the rate of vote buying will reduce. The truth remains that it's very difficult to predict the winner. It's gonna be a tight one. All I want is free, fair and credible Election.
Aboki99: Peter Obi's supporters are cock-a-hoop about what they see as the highest chance of their hero winning Nigeria's presidency next Saturday.
Are their optimism and excitement factually/statistically justified?
Let's do the arithmetic.
PO's strongholds are the SE and the SS, two zones with the least number of votes!. Granted that PO can scavenge some votes in the SW, but it's crystal clear that Tinubu will carry the day in SW eventually.
In the north, the Obidients rely on pockets of votes from northern xtians. But are these enough? Not at all. Since 1999, the northern xtians have never voted along the same line as the Muslim core North. For example they have never voted for Buhari. Yet, in 2014 and 2019 Buhari was able to win signifying the political insignificance of this voting bloc to a candidate that can garner votes in the core north and other parts (Tinubu?). Similarly, PMB was able to win elections without the votes of the SE and SS in both 2014 and 2019, which also trivializes the importance of these two Obi's main strongholds in determining the ultimate presidential winner.
So, for Obi to win the presidential election, he would, as a matter of necessity, need votes from Muslim voters in the north. But does he look set to get it? The truthful but bitter answer for Obidients to accept is No with a capital N. Problem is, the Obidients want to market Obi in the day as a pan-Nigerian candidate but brandish the news of Obi's endorsement by popular pastors/Churches whose altars Obi has turned to campaign platforms. This, rightly so, confuses the average northern Muslim voter and makes them pause to ask some legitimate questions[ Imagine Buhari going to the mosques to campaigns in 2014 or even 2019, what with the reaction be like from voters in say the SE?)
Not even the votes in Plateau and Benue, two states Obidients have also placed high, convoluted hope on can do anything to offset the bloc northern muslim votes. Here, the Obidients will conveniently bring up the issue of Kwankwaso who, as they argue passionately, will magically divide these votes for them to conquer and win the race. In making this highfalutin assumptions, the Obidients forget two crucial facts: 1) the muslim northern voters are never known, throughout Nigeria's political history, to cultivate the habit of wasting their votes. The average northern voter might not have gone to school but they're the most sophisticated; 2) Despite pulling some intimidating crowds in a couple of states esp in the nroth, the truth is Kano is Kwankwaso's main sphere of influence. Even there, I can't bet a penny that he'll win a simple majority for reasons adumbrated above.
Now, my only concern is what the reaction of the Obidients will be when the bubble of their alternative reality finally bursts. I hope they'll peacefully pick up the pieces, lick their wounds, move on and say "better luck next time".
Personally, I do not see any credible candidate worthy of my votes among the current pack of wolfs, but I know for sure that this 2023 election is a contest between Tinubu and Atiku. Yet, while I know this for a fact, I also have to admit that the outcome of this contest is highly unpredictable. Tinubu has 22 APC governors behind his back, huge war chest, media control and so on. Atiku has the support of some powerful members of PMB's kitchen cabinet, considerable war chest, and some current public angst to latch onto.
If you press me hard to rate the chances of the major contenders, I'll come up with something like these: 1. Tinubu 35% 2. Atiku 34 3. Obi 20% 4. Kwankwaso 9%
Obi and his fans claim he will win the whole of South East......I want to see how he will win it when his party is practically non existent over there.
Forget the hype on social media......Obi and his party only exists in urban areas.......but u see those rural areas......what they know is PDP.
In Enugu State...... people in rural areas don't even know that there is a party called LP.....what they know is PDP and APC. With APC being hausa's people party.....while PDP is their own party.
Obi may be popular in South East......but his party is not popular and that will be his down fall.
Obi is very popular everywhere in Southeast. LP Party have Candidates for Senate and House of Reps in almost all the States in Southeast. Some of them even use his popularity to campaign for themselves.
gentlekay2017: I have read more than 4 posts on nairaland.com today where Obidients claimed that their man Peter Obi will win inthe North central. They keep mentioning North central as if they dont know the states that made up northcentral. Perhaps they think northcentral is all about Plateau and Benue States. For your information dear obidients, these are the six states called Northcentral in Nigeria. 1. Kwara State 2. Kogi State 3. Nasarawa State 4. Niger State 5. Benue State 6. Plateau State I can assure you of this, Peter Obi will not get 25% in Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa and Niger States. You can't even be sure of 25% in Plateau State notwithstanding the high number of catholic faithfuls in the state. Mark my words, the only state where Obi can see anything like 25% is Benue State where the state governor have declared for him.
The States Peter Obi are not too sure of getting 25% Votes are Kwara and Niger. He will win in Benue, Plateau, Abuja. Nasarawa is a battleground between LP, PDP and APC.
TimFisher2: Sometimes I laugh at their foolishness....when it comes to their own ...they play tribal but when it comes to another person ground they play party
Imagine hearing Tinubu will win Ebonyi, Imo, Ibadan and Kano but Atiku will lose even to APC states in the North and PDP states in the South West also
Are you seeing the foolishness
The truth remains that Tinubu will win in Bornu State. Yobe state is 50-50 between Atiku. My vote is for Obi. Obi will do very well in Lagos if his supporters will come out en mass and vote. The LP Party in Lagos should ensure that enough unbiased Security Men will be on ground to prevent the hoodlums from attacking them especially at the strongholds.
This development will cause problem and disenfranchise Voters. Not everyone is on the internet. Secondly, there are many Voters who are no longer using the same phone line they used during their PVC Registration. How can such people be informed of the reassignment of their Polling Units?.
Newton2024: I am also a card carrying member of PDP in Osun State but Peter Obi is my choice come February 25 election. Yoruba ni mi tokantokan sugbon Peter Obi ni choice mi nitoripe Thiefnubuu ti lu'le patapata. Peter Obi is Omoluabi, Tinubu is akudaaya.
Governor Ikpeazu of Abia State is neutral for obvious reasons . Though his spirit is fully with Obi. He can't really campaign for Atiku or Obi. LP is very popular and formidable in Abia. Governor Ikpeazu is going for Senate and he has strong opponents in LP and APGA. Supporting Obi who is in LP openingly might make him lose because the presidential and senatorial election is holding the same day . Supporting Atiku will also affect his ambition because most Abians will be against him. Atiku is not supposed to take over from another Northern-fulani-Muslim while the southeast has not had any. Though I prefer Atiku to "Mr Balablu Blu Bulaba" because his vice is from South South and a Christian. I say "NO" to MUSLIM MUSLIM Ticket.
Standozey: As we all know the general presidential election will be held on 25th of February 2023.
For any candidate to emerge as the winner, he needs to gather 25% of votes in 2/3 of the state, that's 24 states including the FCT.
It is generally agreed that Obi will do well in South East, South South, South West and North Central. This should give him about about 20±1 states .
We can assume that the North East and North West will be tough for Obi but for him to be the president he needs 25% in at least 5 states from those region.
Which North East and North West states do you think Obi can get 25%?
Adamawa, Taraba, Kaduna.. I'm not sure of Gombe and Bauchi.
I don’t factor Niger in my calculation but I don’t know why you guys don’t think Obi will get 25% in Oyo. Are you guys aware that that state is a little cosmopolitan?
Meanwhile I found out Abuja is not part of your count, why?
Abuja is not a state. The law says 25%in 2/3 of the State= 24.
Are u convinced Obi will get 25% in Ogun,Ekiti, Oyo,Osun, Kwara and Kogi. I'm sure of Adamawa, Nasarawa, ondo, Taraba and the rest. Please Let's be Objective on this. I need encouraging response.
aieromon: 80% of how many votes is the issue. In 2019, Atiku polled 524,738 votes in Anambra amounting to 86.63% of votes. In Kaduna, he did 649,612 votes which was a measly 39.05%.
100% of SE votes is useless if the voter turnout is low.
This year's Election will be quite different. There will be massive turn out in the south east this Time. I'm still telling u that Kaduna Votes will be shared by Tinubu, Atiku,Obi and kwankwaso. Nobody will get block votes in Kaduna. BVAS is there to curtail some Mago-mago. Mark my words
Villa12: The whole south eastern region has about 11.4 million registered voters
Only Kano and Kaduna has about 10.8million registered voters
The two states represent the whole south eastern region
Kaduna and Kano Votes will be shared amongst the 4 major parties. Obi may not do well in Kano but, he will get some Votes there. Come to Southeast, Obi will get at least 80% votes. Get that into your skull. Note that Tinubu is not as popular like Buhari in the North. ATIKU AND KWANKWASO WILL GIVE HIM A GOOD RUN FOR HIS MONEY. This Election is gonna be a tough one.
Paulheyman: Have you heard of chinedu ogah of the APC? Umahi's suppose district is where Anyim Pius Anyim comes from, Ifeanyichukwu odii comes from, hama nnachi comes from, his tormentor the labour party senate guy comes from, idu igariway or something comes from, his ohaozara when compared to onicha LGA don't have enough voting strength. What can poor Umahi do, even odii of PDP and FON doesn't campaign for their principles. If only you know how tricky Dave is. Don't forget his popular saying "is only God that promises and not fail"
Please, if you are from Ebonyi State can you predict what percentage of Votes Peter Obi will score.? People are saying that Obi will not do well there because of Umahi.
tinsel: It is very gloomy for labour with northwest and East completely out. Tinubu strong in all the regions except South east
. I'm OBIdient .What u said is in order. I'm not convinced with Obi's performance in the Core North. I pray and hope that he will do better in the Election since he's currently campaigning there. We have to note that a winner of the Election shall get the Majority of the Votes and score no fewer than 25% Votes in the 2/3 of the States...i.e 24 States..
endy69: Where was his bravery when people were been killed left, right and centre? This regime came up with a lot bad policies but his voice left his mouth cus he was seeking favour. At the Yoruba nation protest/movement, he gave a speech analysis issues on ground instead of taking a stand and now because Buhari is committed to free and fair election and wouldn't use federal might to rig for him, he suddenly found his voice. I like what is going on, it is easy, take your money to the bank and request 4 new notes, CBN said they have printed enough new naira notes and it is only the commercial banks that are hoarding the money. I was in a bank to withdraw moni and they brought the old notes I rejected them and demanded for new ones which they obliged. I support this policy with my balls. My friend was complaining about the policy and I asked him how much cash he kept in his house then he then he stopped talking. The things here is that most law abiding citizens have their money in the bank so why fear about naira recolouraton. Only criminals complain
Vinnie2000: He is in Borno state, currently campaigning !
Then he has a Scheduled meeting with Obasanjo later dis evening.
He will Complain. Be Patient, u hear?
I like this response. Those who are complaining are those corrupt criminals who always buy votes and also recruit touts to disrupt voting exercise especially where they are not getting Votes.
Politics › Re: States Peter Obi Will Likely Score 25% In Tomorrow's Presidential Election by buchilla: 5:57pm On Feb 24, 2023
