₦airaland Forum

http://saharareporters.com/2015/03/27/new-survey-confirms-buhari-track-win-presidential-elections-heavy-margins-apc-likely

New Survey Confirms Buhari on Track to Win Presidential Elections by Heavy Margins, APC Likely to Sweep National Assembly Elections

Summary of Results: We earlier reported on the outcome of a comprehensive electoral survey on the Nigerian presidential elections initially slated for February 14th. The elections were then subsequently postponed for a 6 week period, and rescheduled for March 28th, 2015. Given the significant political events that have transpired since the release of our last survey results, we recognized that there was a strong possibility that voter preferences could have shifted in the intervening period.
by Malcolm Fabiyi & Adeleke Otunuga Mar 27, 2015
347 215

Summary of Results: We earlier reported on the outcome of a comprehensive electoral survey on the Nigerian presidential elections initially slated for February 14th. The elections were then subsequently postponed for a 6 week period, and rescheduled for March 28th, 2015. Given the significant political events that have transpired since the release of our last survey results, we recognized that there was a strong possibility that voter preferences could have shifted in the intervening period. We therefore conducted a new survey that was intended to understand whether there had been any shifts in the presidential preferences of Nigerians within the intervening period. Muhammadu Buhari

The new survey was conducted from March 14th to March 25th. The Survey Platform utilized was Survey MonkeyTM. A detailed overview of the survey methodology is described at the end of this paper. The survey questionnaire comprised of 42 questions covering the following topics: (a) demographic questions covering gender, educational attainment, income, region of origin, place of domicile and location at which voter’s registration was done (b) 2011 electoral choices (c) 2015 voting intent (d) respondents’ political views and (e) motivating factors for the choice of Presidential candidate.

As with our earlier survey analysis, we reiterate that a critical challenge that an online-based poll offers is the possibility that results can be skewed due to an over-representation of respondents from certain regions in the sample population. This potential bias can be controlled for, by analyzing the results on a regional basis using the regions where respondents registered for their voter cards as the filter.

Given that the detailed 42 item survey allowed us to establish the region in which respondents registered to vote, and by extension where they would be voting, it was possible to develop a detailed profile of voting behavior by region. This enabled us to develop insights into the likely scenarios that will evolve by region, allowing us to ensure that a high response in certain parts of the country did not unduly skew the predicted outcomes. Our ability to evaluate voter behavior on a regional basis also allowed the determination of the potential impact that low voter turnout or outright vote cancellation in the North Eastern part of the country might have on electoral outcomes. All analyses relevant to the elections were carried out only with respondents that were domiciled in Nigeria, have voter cards and indicated that they would be voting in the 2015 elections. The different sample sizes of respondents from the various regions implied that the associated confidence interval for the various regions were different.

Projected Outcomes

The survey emphatically confirmed that Muhammadu Buhari is on track to win the 2015 Presidential elections with about 32.3 million total votes (see Figure 1), while Goodluck Jonathan will obtain about 7.7 million votes. The combined tally for the two candidates will average about 40 million votes. We have maintained our assumption that the voter turnout will be about 58.1%, which is the average of the voter turnout percentages obtained in the last 4 elections held in the 4th republic (53.7% in 2011, 57.5% in 2007, 69.1% in 2003 and 52.3% in 1999).

Based on the survey results, we predict that Goodluck Jonathan is unlikely to win outright in any geo-political zone. While we reported in our last survey that Jonathan would win the South East (65%) and South South (71%) geo-political zones, the new survey results indicate that he will likely lose to Buhari in the two regions winning only about 42% of the votes in the South East and 38% in his own region, the South South. We project that Muhammadu Buhari is on track to win in the North East (83% of the votes, confidence interval 95±12%), North West (95% of the votes, confidence interval 95±8%), North Central (82% of the votes, confidence interval 95±6%), South West (86% of the votes, confidence interval 95±5%), South East (58% of the votes, confidence interval 95±15%) and South South (62% of the votes, confidence interval 95±9%).

Given the significant margins of victory that the analysis projected for Buhari, we were concerned that the sample population might have been skewed towards Buhari supporters. Although this was highly unlikely given that the respondents were randomly solicited from all over Nigeria, we decided to undertake two further tests on the sample population. Firstly, we reviewed the proportion of respondents who indicated that they had voted for Jonathan and Buhari in the 2011 elections, and compared the voter percentages to the reported INEC figures for the outcome of the 2011 elections. 55% of the respondents in this current survey indicated that they had voted for Goodluck Jonathan in the 2011 elections. This is slightly lower than the official INEC voter count from the 2011 elections, which indicated that Jonathan won that race with 61% of the popular vote. 45% of the respondents indicated that they had voted for Buhari in the 2011 elections, versus 33% from the official INEC figures. These results indicated that majority of our respondents had voted for Jonathan in 2011. What this also means in essence is that a survey of this nature would have accurately predicted the outcome of the 2011 presidential race.

Secondly, we also reviewed the voting choices of Jonathan’s 2011 supporters across all regions to understand how their choices in 2015 were impacting the presidential race. Only 34% of respondents who had voted for Jonathan in 2011 indicated that they will be voting for him again in 2015, while the remaining 66% indicated they would be voting for Buhari in the 2015 elections. If 66% of the 22,495,187 (14,846,823) are added to the 12,214,853 votes that Buhari obtained in 2011, the potential Buhari votes would be about 27 million before bringing to the table the 2.1 million votes for Nuhu Ribadu that are now at play, and the slightly higher voter turnout that is expected in 2015. These triangulations enabled a clear picture to begin to emerge on how Buhari could plausibly win the 2015 elections by significant margins.

While a lot of progress has been made in tackling the Boko Haram crisis in the last 5 weeks, we still proceeded to evaluate what the electoral outcomes would be if the lingering Boko Haram crisis in the North East prevented elections from holding in the states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (the BAY States). Our analysis suggests that the complete exclusion of the BAY states from the electoral tally will still result in a victory for Muhammadu Buhari. In the event that voting will not be able to hold in the BAY states, the total expected votes from the North East will reduce from about 5.3 million to 2.6 million votes and the projected national tally will be 30.1 million votes for Muhammadu Buhari versus about 7.2 million votes for Goodluck Jonathan. In either scenario, Buhari will likely win the presidential elections with a convincing majority of the total votes cast.

Bawss1:
And yet Mr President still has maintains that his government is out to fight corruption! The FEC meetings have for a long time now been reduced to a contract sharing meeting and this anomaly must be stopped.
I'm willing to bet that further investigation will reveal that ACT Technologies is a front for someone highly placed in government if not a member of the FEC.

Buhari has promised to return the FEC to its primary role of policy formation. Where else in the world do leaders advertise contract sharing the way our government does? Ish. Jonathan has no policies but he knows how to apportion our finances to his friends and corrupt allies.

#change
#GMB
#APC

ba7man:
When I saw OPC members in their numbers walking down Ikorodu rd destroying APC campaign boards, carrying guns and harrassing people, I was moved and immediately decided to vote for PDP.


I just fell for the campaign of violence the PDP promote.

I was also touched when I found out GEJ had shared out Billions of Naira from the National treasury to these Obas. He's so generous. Now all he has to do is borrow more money from world bank and we'll be fine.


The 1 million man march organized for Buhari had too many cute fresh people and was too organized for my liking.

Lolz, u sef.

#change
#GMB
#APC

Acidosis:
This message is directed to all peace loving Nigerians. There is something about that word "Sai-Buhari."


At the shout of that name; all sane Nigerians become insane, blood pressures rise; tentacles grow from the skull; and teeth begin to gnash!


Stay safe Nigerians! Sai Buhari is synonymous to VIOLENCE; wherever & whenever that name is called; what follows is VIOLENCE.

Nairaland was peaceful until we started seeing these words; Lagos was peaceful until "SAI BUHARI"

Do you even know the main activator of the 2011 post election violence? Fellow Nigerians, watch the video on YouTube and tell me what you hear!

We've seen people destroying banners and simultaneously chanting "SAI-BUHARI." That name give them the energy and tenacity to kill, steal and destroy.

"SAI-BUHARI" will result to loss of lives on Saturday, 28th. When you hear that name; grab your voter card and run for your dear life.



Acidosis

Are you finished with the lies?

#change
#GMB
#APC

Mimiko is a political lightweight himself. Was it not Tinubu and Co that helped him secure his Mandate? Now he runs around as if he was not some dull minister that obasanjo sacked. People that know him well know he is an ego maniac and very corrupt so it's no surprise he ran to pdp. But this election on Saturday will be the start of his problems.

#change
#GMB
#APC

I agree SW is for Buhari but we must all do our duty on Saturday and continue canvassing until the last minute. If Jonathan gets 25% in lagos I will be upset. #deliveryourstreet

#change
#GMB
#APC

Mimiko’S Deputy Defects to APC, Govt Says ‘Good Riddance’
by
Headlines, News, Nigeria
Ondo Deputy Governor

‘Tosin Ajuwon

A war of words ensued on Thursday between the Ondo State Governor, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko, and his deputy, Alhaji Ali Olanusi, over the defection of the latter from the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

While Olanusi accused the Mimiko administration of marginalizing many of his followers, the state Commissioner of Information, Mr. Kayode Akinmade, described his exit as good riddance to bad rubbish.

Olanusi, in a press statement issued by his media aide, Daisi Ajayi, complained of “total exclusion” from government.

The statement read: “In the unfolding political development in our country today, and in Ondo State in particular, it is increasingly clear that I need to chart a new course for majority of my followers who look up to me for direction and leadership and who have watched helplessly in the last six years (6) years, the untold marginalisation and total exclusion from the government they laboured to put in place.
“While still being in place as the democratically elected Deputy Governor of Ondo State, I have decided to lead my teeming supporters and well-wishers in the state into the All Progressive Congress (APC) where we can find justice, fairness, equity and democratic liberty- a party to which majority of our kith and kins (sic) in Yorubaland and belongs (sic).”
He added: “I have taken this decision at this critical time, in the best interest of peace, stability and good governance of our dear State and for the overall development of the South West and the Nation.”

However, Akinmade in an interview with Daily Times described Ajayi as a political lightweight.

He said: “This was a man who could not win his polling unit and ward. He was of no electoral use to the party and government. We can only wish him well in his ridiculous journey.”

http://dailytimes.com.ng/mimikos-deputy-defects-to-apc-govt-says-good-riddance/

BREAKING NEWS: Ondo State Deputy Governor Defects to APC
by
Headlines, News, Politics
Mimiko and Ali 2

Alhaji Ali Olanusi, deupty to Ondo state governor, Segun Mimiko of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has defected to the All Progressive Congress (APC). Details later

http://dailytimes.com.ng/breaking-news-ondo-state-deputy-governor-defects-to-apc/

News just coming in is that the Ondo state deputy governor has defected to the APC. Details coming soon.

Daily Times

pekeyim:
20 trillion dollars!!!!!! Wow

We all know that Buhari was head of NNPC, but is not corrupt.

Was PTF chairman under Abacha where we are still returning the loot, but is not corrupt.




All I see is the Hausas and Yorubas trying to gain power by all means and shouting "Change " But if we observe closely we'll notice there is no change in them,

"Prof. Osinbajo mentioned they'll generate 40,000 MW of electricity in 4 years, " something that's impossible, they had to ask him 3 times to be sure.

They'll pay 25 million Nigerians 5 000 naira a month, thats 1.5 TRILLION NAIRA per annum.


Free school fees till tertiary level.

Free meals for primary school kids.

If you add all of this up, you'll see its total rubbish!

It's not achievable,

It's like saying a New born baby can fly an aircraft!

If Diezani can use 10bn to charter private jets, the president uses 50bn to maintain his fleet over 2-3yrs,and we pay 1.5trillion to oil subsidy scammers, why can we give each child one free meal a day in school? It is simply a matter of adjusting our priorities and the money will be going to farmers and suppliers of local produce. Why is that such a big crime to you. The poor are the majority in Nigeria and it is time government was about meeting their needs.

#change
#GMB
#APC

jingh:
ibb don vex.


it will shock GEJ and TAN that all money used for the hate documentary didn't yield the fruit.

Sai baba

Gej won't be shocked. It's his petty tribalistic supporters that will weep for denying the evidence they see everywhere.

#change
#GMB
#APC

The last five years have shown no evidence of vision or purpose, but at this hour he knows what he may do over the next 4 years? Abeg Jonathan pull over...

#change
#GMB
#APC

denko:
Did you allow him to remove it. dont worry vote Buhari but i give you one year you will yearn for Gej to return

Abeg, the only thing you pdp people know how to peddle is fear. Where is the pdp manifesto? Where? Mtcheeeeeew

#change
#GMB
#APC

Buhari

#change
#GMB
#APC

yuzjet:
And u forgot to think that he might be supporting APC. Hence, he can decide on the write-up on his own accord. Please, show that ur brain is working.

You would be pig-ignorant to imagine the BBC is the same as NTA. They have a well earned reputation, and whoever Odunfa supports is his private affair, but as a journalist he is free to comment on what he cares to, within well established guidelines of which he is well aware.

#change
#GMB
#APC

egift:
Buhari did not say it. Just the same way the Sharia and Abacha not corrupt Propaganda started, a TAN journalist reported falsehood, it got published and spread. Below is Buhari's exact quote.



Even when there was not a single quote to support the the lie, Vanguard went ahead to publish it. Very pathetic.

Buhari all the way. Corruption can fight all it like. Buhari is the next president of Nigeria.

I'm so tired of people repeating this falsehood and then frothing at the mouth over it. Let them go and find where Buhari is quoted as saying so, they cannot find any such nonsense. They have an agenda with their lies. March 28th can't come soon enough!

#change
#GMB
#APC

Rubbish

But very amusing...

#change
#GMB
#APC

Jeezuzpick:
Do you know Sola Odunfa?

He is a man!

How can you dismiss someone you dont even know?

Don't blame the child, it's only ignorance... Lolz

yuzjet:
Does this look like a report from BBC?

Please, vote intelligently.

Gooluck all the way. Please if it's not Goodluck, it's badluck.

You find it so difficult to navigate the link provided? Odunfa has been a regular BBC contributor for at least ten years. Please apply some intelligence...

#change
#GMB
#APC

agabaI23:
Asari threatened no particular person.

Now you know that is a blatant lie!

http://saharareporters.com/2015/02/03/niger-delta-militant-asari-dokubo-threatens-buhari-amaechi-sylva-and-niger-delta-voters

Niger Delta militant and leader of the Niger Delta Volunteers Force, Asari Dokubo has issued fresh threats against opposition politicians including APC Presidential candidate, Muhammad Buhari, promising a series of action against him and some opposition party leaders and voters from the Niger Delta region should the February 2015 general elections not go the way of President Goodluck Jonathan in the region.

http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/175532-niger-delta-militants-meet-yenagoa-threaten-war-jonathan-lose-presidential-election.html
Niger Delta militants meet in Yenagoa, threaten war should Jonathan lose presidential election

http://www.naij.com/69893.html
Leader of the Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force, Asari Dokubo Threatens Northerners

#change
#GMB
#APC

Empty garbage. I guess Asari has been promoting peace and unity with all his threats? Silly lies

#change
#GMB
#APC

richol:
the perfect definition of foolishness is puting ur trust in a fellow man...u talk about personality and ideas,can u seperate them?watsoever a man conceives is wat he is.......u ppl talk about buhari as GOD...but i tell u, he is as human as u are...he can fail u.

Jonathan has already failed me, so I will vote for Buhari. If he dares fail me, he too will be sacked and replaced. This is how reasonable people behave.

#change
#GMB
#APC

dearpreye:
Obviously, you have NO idea what terrorism is all about. U guys just come here and yap nonsense. You have no idea what terrorism entails.

Perhaps I do not, but it is only an ignorant president or an evil one that would wait 4 years to tackle the issue after the loss of at least 15,000 lives, hundreds kidnapped, millions displaced, countless injuries and economic damage to the North East. We have waited 4 years to see the magic that happens in six weeks when you hire Chad and Cameroon, Pakistani trainers and South African mercenaries. Ish

#change
#GMB
#APC

bruno419:
if Nigeria is not better than Iraq then shut up

If that is all you had to say, silence would have preserved the illusion of your intelligence.

#change
#GMB
#APC

Dokpesi will surely pay a price for being biased not just at AIT but with the nedg. He can expect no favours when the APC triumphs.

#change
#GMB
#APC

I have my PVC and GMB has my vote.

#change
#GMB
#APC

complete20:
We can't say tho. but he stands a great chance of being the next president

Unless the south East rallies around him it will not happen. Having control of just one state in the region is not enough. But the volume of APC votes in this election will be a guide.

#change
#GMB
#APC

alfonso36:
I dont envy Gej at all but what can i do to escape been sacked?? worst part is we have the same polling unit, Any help please?

Haba. Will he watch you vote? He cannot stand so close so do what you feel is right for you.

#change
#GMB
#APC

Unserious comments like this only show the immaturity of their maker. Chairman of APC sef na Catholic. Abeg jo...

#change
#GMB
#APC

People of akwa ibom vote wisely.

#change
#GMB
#APC

bruno419:
I hate doing this but I m always pushed to, all the apc supporters are very stupid,imagine committing a whole giant of Africa to a remote controlled grandpa.. I pity u all...quote me negatively and die young

A real giant of Africa would not need assistance from Chad and Cameroon to deal with Boko Haram. That is how low your Jonathan has brought us!

#change
#GMB
#APC

https://www.nairaland.com/2207916/raymond-dokpesi-caught-serious-fraud

Enough said

#change
#GMB
#APC