₦airaland Forum

ChinemeOkpan:
U dey mind that one? He has a big mouth!

Na him convince Barca to decamp by filling his head with lies. Imagine Non-Yorubas come dey tell us how Omo Oduas will vote

Den never see nathing yet

My brother there were several northerners that trekked from Ajah to Falomo to vote for you know who.. I'm not yoruba but I have and will always vote apc as a card carrying member. The next task is to disgrace jk in 2 weeks time. The North and south West make the best allies in Nigerian politics and I pray we wrap up this nonsense early tomorrow because pdp is looking to rig. Victory is in sight. Thank God. #voteAMBODE

#change
#GMB
#APC
#oneNigeria

Dinobenson:
Have u guys ever considered what will happen if Buhari wins.Do u think there will be money to spend?.Bulk of Nigeria's money is gotten from oil.That leads to the question who owns the oil.Better start looking for alternative source of revenue cos it wont be funny in the Niger Delta.

There is no debate about who owns the oil. Nigerians do. Every resource within our land is part of the 'common wealth' and if anyone thinks different, well the incoming government will have space to 'accommodate' them. Threats to the unity and corporate existence of Nigeria will be firmly 'resolved'.

#change
#GMB
#APC
#oneNigeria

dexmundo:
I personally don't think the missing $(49/30/20/10) billion 'if true', can ever be found. Buhari promised to revisit it truly! But NNPC are so bad, you can't get the truth. They played on PriceWaterCooper- an internationally recognised auditing firm. I believe they hid some things so that PWC could only find trace of missing $1billion.

Even after sanusi first whistle, Jonathan was reluctant to probe them its a waste of time. Billions of naira are lost to shady deals every time in NNPC- whether through oil importation, subsidy scheme, constant refinery repair or joint contracts with other firms. NNPC is more corrupt than the govt- the only workable solution is for GMB to scrap it as soon as possible

The government has refused to release the unedited version of the report to the legislature or public. What are they hiding?

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/02/20bn-missing-oil-money-reps-ask-fg-to-release-audit-firms-full-report/

#change
#GMB
#APC

Jaypea98:
I watched the campaign in (IMO STATE) live on AIT where he was alleged to have said such. Quote me .He said 'it is not acceptable that a dollar is equivalent to 230naira'
Must the newspapers always be right?leadership Guardian Naij and Dailytrust yesterday claimed that FFK lost his PU which was a lie.
He also promised free meals for ELEMENTARY SCHOOL STUDENTS
Thirdly he promised to pay NYSC GRADUATES 5,000naira
These things have already been calculated
.......................................Thanks

This has been deliberate pdp policy to demonise Buhari. They repeat the lies so often and so widely that it appears true, but to produce evidence that Buhari said a naira should equal a dollar, even Okupe or FFK has not shown it because it does not exist. Buhari will be our next president and I am glad for that. We have worked hard for this impending victory and we know he will set the right moral and governmental tone for the country. People need to deal with it.

#change
#GMB
#APC
#oneNigeria

dexmundo:
let me even talk about the importation of oil you mentioned. Did it start in the last six years? No. That has being the situation even in military era. What did Buhari do to strengthen NNPC while he was head of state? Nothing on record!

Now, to stop importation of oil, we will need more refineries- govt or private, NNPC too need to be unbounded and focus on something- not marketing and importation which they do now. Under Jonathan, Africa's largest refinery is now under construction by dangote. We have other smaller refineries and petrochemical plants being constructed in akwa ibom and in the Niger delta. They were liscenced by GEJ and would be completed by 2017. GEJ sponsored the PIB law which will help in many ways. He promised unbundling NNPC.

Unfortunately, Buhari did not make any promise on that. So if the waste of money on importation of oil or subsidy payment was an issue to you, Jonathan would be your true answer not buhari- he has made no campaign promise on that - we can't afford to believe him on what he never promised or planned to do!

There is no PIB law. It remains a bill until it is passed by the national assembly which will not happen because Jonathan does not even have the support of his pdp legislators to get the bill passed.
Dangotes refinery is based in Lagos, a business - friendly and safe state run by the APC. The APC has committed to ending the scandal of a major opec member (us) not having any useful refining capacity. End of the fuel subsidy scam that tripled to 1.5t naira when Jonathan took over from Yaradua. If you need to know about apc policies please consult their website and don't just rely on newspaper headlines.

#change
#GMB
#APC

I’ll make Naira equal in value to dollar, says Buhari

on March 23, 2015 / in News 8:31 pm / Comments

Owerri – The All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, on Monday said he would ensure that the Naira was equal to the dollar in value, if voted into office.

Buhari stated this during the South-East presidential rally of the party at Dan Anyima Stadium, Owerri.buhari-Naira

“It is sad that the value of the naira has dropped to more than N230 to one dollar; this does not speak well for the nation’s economy,’’ he said.

He urged the people to vote for APC, noting that he would ensure that corruption was tackled headlong if elected.

Earlier, Gov Rochas Okorocha had urged APC supporters to vote for the party’s candidates at all levels, noting that a vote for Buhari without support to others at the state would amount to nothing.

Okorocha said Buhari would address the problem of electricity, bring back the kidnapped Chibok girls and promote industrial growth.

He said that Buhari was loved by the people in the region and urged them to elect him and other APC candidates during the March 28 and April 11 general elections.

Former governor of Anambra, Mr Chinwoke Mbadinuju and former Minister of Education, Chinwe Obaji, were formally welcomed to the APC at the rally.

The rally was attended by APC supporters from Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra, Enugu and Imo. (NAN)
===

Now please explain how the headline of the article came about from the quoted comments. Why couldn't they quote the particular sentence they claim he spoke that resulted in the headline? Shoddy journalism for simple minds.

#change
#GMB
#APC

dexmundo:
you people are too lazy to do research and too ignorant. I will get you newspaper links. For your information: www.dailytrust.com.ng/sunday/index.php/politics/20017-2015-presidential-poll-jonathan-buhari-make-109-campaign-promises

Do not associate me with your affliction. I am an APC member and well aware of what Buhari promises. If you have any audio or video or party issued statement making such a claim please produce it. Headlines are not written by the APC and cannot be taken as the party gospel, so we are quite aware that the Vanguard headline that falsely stated this is simply the work of either a simpleton or a mischievous person. You are the one who needs to get informed and by the appropriate authorities too.

Even in the article you cannot find Buhari quoted as saying what the headline proclaims. Ish


#change
#GMB
#APC

dexmundo:
you can't hold gej accountable for yaradua's govt just the way osibanjo is just a name under buhari.

Personally, i disagree wt politicians promising without thinking. We have more than 5 million students nation wide. If you are to feed each at a budget of N600 Daily. Multiply 600 X 5 million student X 365 days. That gives you trillions of naira again.

Won't he pay salaries or do other developmental projects? Our yearly budget when we had oil boom was abt N5 trillion naira o. Now oil earning has reduced by half. How will he raise the money without raising tax

The program has been costed at 1.5t and considering that the beneficiaries will be vulnerable children and those involved in agriculture, it is a worthwhile investment. It will certainly boost the sector and touch lives. Government is not only about catering to the civil service and the rich and connected!

#change
#GMB
#APC

dexmundo:
after examining authentic results from polling units in abuja, some s/w states and the north, i can see Buhari taking over. However, you must know am not a fan of buhari. Now, lets be calm and see what he or the APC can do better Remember his campaign promises:

1) pay 20 million poorest nigerians N5000 monthly allowance each
2) provide free daily lunch/food for all students in Nigeria
3) wipe out corruption from Nigeria
4) make 1dollar equal 1naira
5) grow the nigerian economy which they termed 'bad economy' under Jonathan
6) provide steady power supply
7) unprecedented rebuilding of nigeria's infrastructure
create 20,000 jobs per state every year
9) ensure fundamental political reform, transparency and accountability in government
10) protect the environment against hazard like oil spill
11) revamp agricultural sector and enugu coal industry

FOUR YEARS ARE NOT TOO MUCH, EVERY NOISE MAKER AND REASONABLE PERSON SHOULD WATCH OUT FOR THE FULFILMENT OF THESE UNREALISTIC PROMISES IN FOUR YEARS. No excuse of 4 years is not enough or we laid the foundation. We must judge him with one term too just like in Jonathan's case. Shallom!

Buhari never promised to make the naira equal to a dollar. That is a pdp lie. As for the N5k it is conditional on the families children being immunised and in school, and even then it will be a phased in program. We will certainly be getting our refineries back in order or replaced within 4yrs, and there will certainly be a renewed fight against corruption and government wastage.

#change
#GMB
#APC

Nonybb:
APC COULD HAVE SODOMIZED ME



The problem I have...

The problem you have is an inability to think! What a load of rubbish.

#change
#GMB
#APC

Meanwhile the Chadian army is waiting for our troops to come and secure territory recovered from boko haram? Jonathan is evil and will lose no matter his tricks.

#change
#GMB
#APC
#oneNigeria

Gbawe2:
Is it not funny how you guys where "democrats" only days ago when you were sure of a GEJ victory, despite everything pointing to the contrary, only for you to now be anarchists today when it seems Nigerians have rejected GEJ? Jonathan will leave and nothing will happen. Nigeria, and the future of 170 million people, is greater than the political ambition of one single individual.

They are such ridiculous hypocrites, but truly Nigeria will overcome them.

#change
#GMB
#APC
#oneNigeria

Taylor86:
hahahahahahahhahahahahhahahshahahhahahajahahahahahahahahah......buhari i laugh u in swahili... it's now clear that the residents of abuja dosnt want d certificateless old fool....





























meanwhile here in rivers state.....
Amaechi hv been shown '''shege'''
my fellow GEJites

let's celebrate in victory, we dnt need a prophet, ifa, native doctor to tell us it's all over



GEJ has won



pls just more 10likes to send d old man to duara

We can trust pdp supporters to support the violence in Rivers State. Still you will not smell victory. Be calm and watch change happen.

#change
#GMB
#APC
#oneNigeria

The problem is your ignorance. You don't realise this discussion started because Obanikoros son who is contesting for the house of Representatives lost his ward. And he has not done better anywhere else in this area. It is my constituency too and yes we are celebrating an APC victory in Eti-Osa already. Lagos has rejected Jonathan and the pdp, deal with it!

#change
#GMB
#APC
#oneNigeria

lastpage:
STOP! acting like a Jonathan-Mumu!
Why are followers of Jonathan always infected with Cluelessness like this sef?




Dont mind that Mumu up there! (myself2)

When a bank produces ATM Card for you, they give you with a PIN (Master key).
What do you od, if you are not that Mumu up there?

YOU CHANGE THE PIN TO THE VALUE YOU WANT AND THE BANK DONT KNOW/HAVE!

If the Company has that "Key" initially, INEC is smart enough to CHANGE it..... after delivery of the Card readers.

Fear Not, this election will be "almost" perfect.
We are watching Jonathan and Mama Piss, as they try to test the Card Reader with FAKE PVC!
They want to expose the "incident report Form" so they can start cloning it before the end of voting.

We dey monitor them wella wella.

Just VOTE for Buhari/Osinbajo..... and leave the rest to God.

Lastpage!

On my way to do my duty.

#change
#GMB
#APC

Myself2:
Who is Jega fooling
That" the firm that produced the card readers don't have the password/master key", if they don't have it, is it my mother that will have it

Again Jega has shown how APC - COMPROMISED he is

Your nonsense is completely detached from reality and the story at hand.

#change
#GMB
#APC

khassy:
APC done fail sha

the kind victory wey GEJ go get go shock them like how transformer the shock rat wey wan sleep on top am

BTW
am buying 12 dozens of handkerchief for APC fans wey go cry after result show.... abeg who want ma add his own share of the handkerchief

Lol. We shall start getting news tonight then you will know how to use the hankies.

#change
#GMB
#APC
#oneNigeria

Blood of Jesus! At this hour?

First you get accredited to vote before the voting starts at 1pm. Nobody is entitled to ask you who you are voting for, certainly not the officials handling the polling center. If you look at the ballot paper, the parties and their respective symbols are represented with a space at the side for your thumbprint. You can only have one choice. Vote wisely, vote for a new beginning, vote for change!

#change
#GMB
#APC

stanbiggi:
Lier . you are scared pdp will win Lagos

PDP win lagos.... Lol lol lol
Nurse, nurse, his pulse is fading o


#change
#GMB
#APC

Lies. So which police station is she at, or is the pdp going to make a documentary about her too? Ish

#change
#GMB #APC
#oneNigeria

FastShipping:
[s][/s]

Nonsense. This rubbish hasn't worked in the last four years and it won't work now.

Too late for this. It's over now.

Buhari will be your president from May 29.

They are so used to lies and lying but the die is cast, Jonathan is gone, and good riddance too!

#change
#GMB
#APC

My dear GMB, the people of Daura will miss you dearly but the nation demands your service at this crucial hour when we have been laid low by thieves, wastrels and plunderers. We the people vow to give you a clear and decisive Mandate to turn this country around, and set her once again, on the path to development and greatness. Our prayers are with you and the heavens have opened up to bless your mission. We too promise to be the change we want to see God helping us. Aso rock calls out to you and our righteous demand shall not be denied.
Thanks Mr president - elect.

#change
#GMB
#APC

myhoodlink:
Dear Lord God, please grant victory unto the camp of President Goodluck Jonathan in this election in Jesus name, Amen! Touch the hearts of men (all Nigerians) to vote in his favour. May every hardened heart come to the acceptance of your will to vote for President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan in Jesus name, Amen! Thank You Dear Lord for your victory unto us. Amen!

Dear Jesus, you know those who came to steal, kill and destroy. Save your people from an evil leadership and restore our dignity and probity. We no longer believe in Goodluck or those that bow in every temple before man and gods but in men of character and true faith. Give us a Cyrus that your temple is rebuilt in our land. Amen

#change
#GMB
#APC

Jonathan, in failing to answer any questions of primary importance to the Nigerian citizen, you have proved to be a miserable and divisive failure. You are the weakest link. Goodbye!

#change
#GMB
#APC
#oneNigeria

This idiot will soon find his level. Rubbish

#change
#GMB
#APC

anonimi:
make una see as fear of a fourth FAILURE dey send confusion into the midst of Buhari supporters



[url=
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMKxeWlCMcI][/url]

Lol. The only one afraid is right now doing night vigil in Aso rock.

#change
#GMB
#APC

eazisky:
Which kind yeye survey? mtschww

Your bitterness is duly noted, just don't be surprised tomorrow.

#change
#GMB
#APC

While about 98% of likely 2015 voters indicated that they would participate in the Presidential elections (see Figure 10), only 55% stated an intention to participate in the National Assembly elections. However, given that both elections will hold on the same day (March 28th), the expected strong showing of the Presidential candidate of the APC and the broad national sentiment in favor of the APC (see Figure 11), it can be reasonably expected that the APC will sweep the National Assembly elections as well. We however do not have any data to predict what the regional breakout of the votes for the National Assembly will be.

When we analyzed the data to determine whether the supporters for either candidate intended to vote in the National Assembly elections, the data indicated that about 84% of voters that intend to participate in the National Assembly elections are those who will be voting for Buhari (see Figure 12). We maintain our prediction that Nigeria will likely see a Presidential and parliamentary sweep by the APC.


Survey Methodology

Majority of the respondents utilized in this survey were reached using the Facebook Ads feature. The target audience was set to Nigerian-based users of Facebook, ages 18 and older. 375,016 unique individuals were reached through this medium, with 12,296 people taking action (click through) which resulted in 1,304 completed survey responses. We also collected an additional 82 responses via e-mail solicitations.

As at the time of completing the analysis discussed in this paper, a total of 1,386 complete responses were obtained. Of these, 1,188 of the respondents were domiciled in Nigeria. 1,088 of the Nigeria based respondents indicated that they had voter cards with 1,032 of them indicating that they intended to vote in the 2015 elections. We utilized only this subset of likely voters in the analysis. Based on the official number of 68.8 million registered voters in Nigeria, this number of intended voters will provide predictive outcomes with an estimated confidence level and interval of 95 ± 3%.

Potential Shortcomings of the Survey

As with any online based survey, there is a possibility for bias towards candidates whose supporters might have a broader affinity for technology, or more access to technology due to wealth. We did not find any inherent affinity for Muhammadu Buhari or Goodluck Jonathan in our sample population. Our review of respondents’ polling preferences in the 2011 elections and our region corrected results indicated that 55% of respondents had voted for Goodluck Jonathan in 2011.

Our results will at best under-represent, and at worst completely fail to capture the prevailing views and sentiments of populations in the various regions who do not have access to electronic mail or the internet.

In the last 6 weeks, there has been a lot of movement in the preferences of voters, much of it favorable to the opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari. While both the Buhari and Jonathan campaigns have embarked on activities that were intended to enhance the fortunes of their candidates, our results indicate that the events of the last 6 weeks have further burnished the anticorruption credentials of Buhari.

There is also the possibility that although a candidate’s supporters might not have been excited enough about their candidate to agree to fill out a 42 item questionnaire, they will still participate in the elections.

Key observations by the numbers

10% of respondents are unemployed, 38% are self-employed, while 52% indicated that they currently work for an employer

25.2% of respondents believe Nigerians are united

76% of Nigerians believe that Tribalism is the reason for the lack of unity, while 54% believe that the lack of unity is driven by religious differences

87% of respondents believe Nigeria should remain as a united country

21.3% of respondents registered to vote in their places of origin

73% believe the 2015 elections will be free and fair

82% of respondents disapprove of the work Jonathan is doing as President

78% of respondents have already received their voter cards

16% of respondents earn less than N30,000 per month


Disclosure:

The 2015 National Electoral Poll was not commissioned by any political party, or vested organizations and/or individuals in the Nigerian political process. Dr Malcolm Fabiyi holds a BSc (First class) degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of Lagos, an MBA from the University of Chicago and a PhD in Chemical Engineering from Cambridge University. Dr Adeleke Otunuga holds Bachelors (Philosophy) and Masters Degrees (IRPM) from the University of Lagos, and a Doctor of Management degree (Organizational Leadership) from the University of Phoenix. Both authors have previously written public articles in support of Muhammadu Buhari’s candidacy. However, this paper was compiled based exclusively on data received from respondents obtained by random sampling. As with our earlier survey, we commit to providing raw data values from this survey to genuine academically motivated requests. Any inquiries regarding the survey should be directed to claypolconsult@gmail.com.

The factors that underline why Buhari will likely win

This new survey reinforces our earlier position that the real story of the 2015 elections will not be so much about the scale of the likely victory in the presidential elections by Buhari, but about Goodluck Jonathan’s catastrophic loss of the 2011 coalition that propelled him to office. While the pool of swing voters in our earlier survey was as high as 23%, that number has now reduced to less than 5%. The last 6 weeks have been abysmal for Goodluck Jonathan’s electoral fortunes, as our results indicate that as many as 10 million largely undecided voters – about 23% of the participating electorate – have consolidated firmly behind Muhammadu Buhari.

As we earlier indicated, the most crippling statistic for Goodluck Jonathan is that about 65% of the respondents who voted for him in 2011 have indicated they will be voting for the opposition candidate, Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 elections (see Figure 2). In contrast, Muhammadu Buhari will retain a staggering 99% of those who voted for him in 2011 (Figure 3), and further build on his voter tally by taking on about 66% of the voters who supported Jonathan in the 2011 elections but have chosen to switch to Buhari in the 2015 polls. The disaffection with Jonathan is deep and pervasive. Although 55% of all respondents indicated that they voted for Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, only about 18% of respondents either strongly approved or approved of the job that he is doing as president (Figure 4).

When the reasons for candidates preferences are analyzed, the (anti)corruption stance of the candidate, is the primary driver of voter behavior (see Figure 5). This is despite the fact that corruption continued to rank 5th amongst the key issues of concern to Nigerians (see Figure 6) – behind issues such as security, economic growth, jobs creation and power. It is not clear to us whether the issue of corruption was conflated by respondents to be an all-encompassing issue that affects other key areas of voter concern. This would be the case if respondents believed that the security challenges and the inability of the Nigerian military to effectively contain the Boko Haram crisis are linked with corruption. Similar sentiments that might blame lax economic growth on corruption and embezzlement of funds, could also potentially explain why corruption is taking on a central role in this electoral cycle. While the underpinning factors that have made corruption the primary driver of the 2015 elections are not very clear, the fact is that majority of voters (59%) are making their choice for president based on the corruption standing of the candidates, with a larger number of them (58% of all voters) selecting Muhammadu Buhari as the clear anti-corruption champion compared to 0.8% for Jonathan. These numbers are a significant boon for Muhammadu Buhari. It appears that events in the last 6 weeks have further cemented in the minds of voters, their perception that Jonathan and the government he leads is corrupt.

In trying to understand the factors responsible for Muhammadu Buhari’s surge in acceptability and favorability, we continue to see two critical demographic insights worth considering, and these have to do with religion and gender. Muhammadu Buhari has solidified his lead amongst women voters with about 67% of the female vote and retains a dominant lead amongst male voters with about 85% of the male vote (see Figure 7).

In a clear reversal of the 2011 polling results, Muhammadu Buhari also leads Jonathan amongst Christian voters (72% vs 28% for Jonathan – see Figure , while he has a staggering 96% advantage over Jonathan amongst Muslim respondents (98% vs 2% - see Figure . The major reversal of fortunes for Jonathan will be better appreciated when the fact is considered that within this respondent pool, Jonathan won 76% of the Christian vote and 28% of the Muslim vote in 2011.

The survey results clearly demonstrate the remarkable erosion of Jonathan’s support base amongst Christian voters, and the massive decline in his showing amongst Muslim voters compared to his 2011 tally. We continue to believe that the remarkable turnaround in the fortunes of Mr. Buhari among Christian voters can probably be best explained by the dampening role that Osinbajo’s choice as the Vice Presidential pick and the perceived support that Osinbajo’s candidacy has from Pastor Adeboye, has made on Jonathan’s erstwhile strong standing amongst Christian voters. While this religious vote swing is real, we wish to point out that when we posed the question regarding the impact that the choice of Vice Presidential candidate had on their voting preference, respondents indicated that it was not a strong factor in their decision making.

When we analyzed the preference data based on the age of respondents, Muhammadu Buhari led in all age categories. In our previous survey, Jonathan had a strong lead amongst voters under 24 years old.

While the story might seem generally positive for Buhari and the APC, the survey results however reveal some deep issues that voters have with both candidates and parties. Nigerians do not view Buhari or the APC as being particularly strong on the economy and in job creation – which are amongst the top priorities of voters (see Figures 5 and 6). Should our results be validated and Buhari and the APC triumph at the polls, they can expect a short honey moon period, as voters will very quickly begin to expect to see results in the key areas of major concern - ending the Boko Haram insurgency, driving economic growth, tackling unemployment & job creation, and solving the lingering power crisis. Buhari’s mandate – if he wins, will not be to wage a war on corruption to the exclusion of the actual issues that matter to voters. He and his party will have to deliver on other cogent issues.