₦airaland Forum

megawealth01:
Even that 370 not my bargain entry sef

Lol.. Grave robber entry price.

I doubt sha, as far as the oil sector in general(not necessary Aradel in particular) keep posting positive news either political, economic(Internatl oil price)at least once a month..
It may never get there. Those sentimental news will keep sustaining it at least.

Only a disastrous news might bring it that low but then again, the Govt is also fully championing their cause and mitigating and supporting them where necessary.

The OS might skew it a little downward but it's financials are great as well as Cooperate Governance to keep it's momentum.

If you see ca.₦500 at least, just hop in.(my opinion)

megawealth01:
Dangote Slashes Petrol Price To ₦‎899 Per Litre


https://dailytrust.com/breaking-dangote-slashes-petrol-price-to-n899-per-litre/

Pressing PHR neck.

designking:
Aradel making us proud and making the XMas a memorable one for us.

Oando should learn how to manage a mega corporation without political-like gimmicks and media sensationalization.

Bitter truth

designking:
The details of the share redistribution is sketchy hence the market is still experiencing selloff of the Oando shares.

The market reaction is a testament of lack of trust or confidence in any possible share redistribution. Though I am going to buy more Oando, it is a gamble I am willing to take.

They disclosed it to NGx, they expanciated on it a little at the AGM.
why won't they do it?
at leaset benefit of doubt for the next few months..


People still have hope on the Dangote Food Merger despite delay for almost 2yrs now.
Sugar was on sub-20 with good FA as at May 2023 I think.
Sugar is now on 30sth with bad FA and SHF wiped out.

OandO own never reach 1week
Doubt don enter.
They need a lot of cooperate Branding and image to rebuild alongside.

Sunrisepebble:
Does the political growth mean they magically learn how to finally run a business?
The corporate governance has been poor and will most likely continue to do so. Like I said, I’m inside also, so I will be very happy to be proven wrong

I get..thats why I ended my statement with Ceteris Paribus(All other things being equal)
Make imagination no wound me
But that's the mid-longterm forecast.

I'm not in anyway against Aradel as I read about them, I am rather impressed by their CG structure as you mentioned given their humble beginning and several transformations even name-changes along the way.
But u know, it's NIGERIA, it's not entirely purely by logic

Sunrisepebble:
Was about to say this. Aradel that is being used as comparison already has a working refinery. Now they are adding 135kbpd of oil production and 350,000 mmscf of annual gas production (about another 150kboepd from my calculation ) with this acquisition. In addition they also have a power plant now, Afam VI (650MW capacity) that is connected to the grid already … The 5% stake in Chappal is also huge when they eventually IPO

Its night and day
I also haven't mentioned our potential London listing but wanted to leave out assumptions

The summary of you guys argument:
Aradel is bound to grow
ORGANICALLY within the next 4yrs..
OandO is bound to grow POLITICALY within the next 1yr and then both ORGANICALLY +POLITICALLY within the next 2yrs.

do you think Aradel's Organic growth will just be enough to make it do more 100%ssss than OandO in these time frames?

with a potential of likely another 4yrs of political growth; if the political connection still holds sway post-2027, do you still see Aradel's price lower or higher than OandO by 2031?
Ceteris Paribus

Raider76:
It is sad that a government is fighting it's best businessman.

You dey mind dem..
when they are forced to give a speech dey can't defend about the energy security as a representative of a sovereign state, they exaggerate their participation in a private one.

They are being reduced to just investors and a minor one at that when they should have been incharge of the entire chain of energy security in the country..from upstream to downstream..
But they've lost the midstream.

Raider76:
I think Oando carries a huge political risk.

Well, that Political risk is on the upside..

What other greater political connection does one need to succeed in anything in this country or any country at all?

megawealth01:
💯
Alhaji opened eyes that refineries can work here

Fixed..
FG wan make we believe say na science wonders

designking:
ADDRESSING NNPCL'S MISINFORMATION

We have received numerous inquiries from the media and other concerned stakeholders seeking clarification on a recent report attributed to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) that their decision to secure a $1 billion loan backed by its crude was instrumental in supporting the Dangote refinery during liquidity challenges.

We would like to clarify that this is a misrepresentation of the situation as $1bn is just about 5% of the investment that went into building the Dangote Refinery.

Our decision to enter into a partnership with NNPCL was based on recognition of their strategic position in the industry as the largest off taker of Nigerian crude and at the time, the sole supplier of gasoline into Nigeria.

We agreed on the sale of a 20% stake at a value of $2.76 billion. Of this, we agreed that they will only pay $1 billion while the balance will be recovered over a period of 5 years through deductions on crude oil that they supply to us and from dividends due to them. If we were struggling with liquidity challenges, we wouldn't have given them such generous payment terms. As at 2021 when the agreement was signed, the refinery was at the pre-commission stage. In addition, if we were struggling with liquidity issue, this agreement would have been cash based rather than credit driven.

Unfortunately, NNPCL was later unable to supply the agreed 300 thousand barrels a day of crude given that they had committed a greater part of their crude cargoes to financiers with the expectation of higher production which they were unable to achieve.

We subsequently gave them a 12-month period for them to pay cash for the balance of their equity given their inability to supply the agreed crude oil volume. NNPCL failed to meet this deadline which expired on June 30th 2024. As a result, their equity share was revised down to 7.24%. These events have been widely reported by both parties.

It is, therefore, inaccurate to claim that NNPCL facilitated a $1 billion investment amid liquidity challenges. Like all business partners, NNPCL invested, $1 billion in the Refinery to acquire an ownership stake of 7.24% stake that is beneficial to its interests.

NNPCL remains our valued partner in progress, and it is imperative for all stakeholders to adhere to the facts and present the narrative in the correct context, to guide the media in reporting accurately for the benefit of our stakeholders and the public.

Anthony Chiejina
Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer
18th December, 2024

DR no dey waste time to rebuff any statement of political gimmick

Toluway:
I don't think this would reduce the country's revenue because all transactions would be done in accordance with $/# exchange rate at the time of the transaction

Some of these sellers specifically the E&Ps dual list on foreign exchanges with foreign investors--OandO as well as Seplat as well as have their base outside Nigeria -Total, Chevron,etc.

My question then is:
If the seller is paid in Naira, what stops him/her from coverting the naira back to dollars?

With the kind of huge transaction in these deals, just 1% volatility in Naira
(esp downward) can affect their face value big time as with the forex losses of some companies.

May be a good news for the country but I think, it may reduce local revenue generation from the oil sectors which has been doing transactions in dollars.

Agbalowomeri:
Maybe insurance coys go come raise capital soon

https://punchng.com/senate-proposes-new-capital-requirements-for-insurance-firms/

Some of them wey dey multiple categories of:
life(₦10bn) &
non-life(₦15bn)=>₦25bn
may have little to no choice than to visit the market.

robobo:
My Oga no vex d tin pass my little education.

I no even know d maths formula wey i go use.

I know no weda make i use bodmas or Pythagoras.

Calculus i no sabi. Oga Agba fit sabi dat one.

I dey siddon look mode

I grab n I get you perfectly.

eee no easy to calculate pass wale himself.

robobo:
My broda no vex.

I don give up. My night school education no reach the level wey Oando dey take am to. A whole Professor Agbalowomeri don talk say na Calculus.

D time wey dem wan teach us that topic for night school na hin palm oil finish for inside the lantern wey we dey use see for night.

So biko no vex d tin pass my paygrade.

A whole WAPCO Merger & Acquisition Valuation Don like you?

yMcy56:
The manager is talking about it now.....

GeeKudi:
I am not sure where they got that from.

A motion was moved and adopted for five days notification for qualification/distribution of the bonus shares. In the process of reading out the amendment, it was read as "bonus shares or money equivalent", what I consider as mere semantics or legal jagon.
[quote author=Princkez post=133333050]seems there will be bonus issue

GeeKudi:
Bonus but no words yet on the ratio

yMcy56:
Wale now talking/replying on some of the questions......
OANDO's future is very bright once all obstacles are off the way......
No intention to go private.....
The worst is over, OANDO is going to do great things....
Production is increasing, market cap increasing and the trend will continue....
Acquisition of NAOC sealed
"We have enough reserve to give Nigeria gas for the next 75yrs"
All rumours circulating are false, the shareholders will benefit from the company, the company intends to do well.

Thanks for the selfless updates as well as others whom I didn't mention.
much appreciated.🙏

mikeapollo:
Most people (and media houses) just compare the percent difference between the current year quarterly profits (Q3 2024; N76b) and prior year profits (Q3 2023; N110b), and take their investment decisions based on the 44.7% drop.
They hardly take time to go through other details.

Good observation!!

....Be like Wale no wan make we get time digest this result before AGM...

barely 12hrs to AGM fah!!!

1stola:
I love your response...

I love the fact that it didn't resort to abuses as usual.
You educated him or her....
This is how it should always be.

As well as the responses of the other. He also took it maturely as he does most times and in good faith.

Agbalowomeri:
Lol is this giving you sleepless nights ni

Lol..sleepless night ke?
I didn't notice the sarcasm from the first poster initially.
I took it literally.

mendes911:
Are you seriously analyzing that "prophetic" post?
Whatever will make Access and GTB fold in 2025 will definitely wipe out the whole economy.

Ok.
you know we are a very religious country. It's not always foolproof. Literally trying to create a balance here for some others.

Lol...your second comment, I agree

mendes911:
I say make I give my people small update. Don't come and cry tomorrow.

#Heels!

we see how this improved metric in 2024 translate to fold up in 2025.

mendes911:
I say make I give my people small update. Don't come and cry tomorrow.
#Heels!

Banks dont just fold..
Even with the exposure to Sovereign debt default in Ghana in 2021 or so by GTB, Zenith n
(Access inclusive I think).

It didn't even Shake their downline as such to investors..

They will probably need to accru 80-85% non-performing loan whose principal has reached maturity by next year and yet no sign of it this year..
Not possible to fold for now.

BabsO2:
Cocoa has surged this year in $$$$s more than doubling in price

👌Graph supporting the article.

I just think their products are among those not readily exportable in terms of meeting international standard. It's limited.
(based on general Agric export reports from Nigeria over time )

They shld at least open new frontiers for the exportable old products since devaluation has also made it relatively cheap to buy from Nigeria.

Atarakpa:
Just avoid wike

Best answer so far
From his talks on TV, just go to any of the satellite areas not in his radar..
Experts can let you know where..
Otherwise, demolition is imminent

BabsO2:
Interesting. So Nigeria with current price of Cocoa can make $25 billion from Cocoa. What the governors doing to make states safer and more attractive for business ventures. The $25billion can even be more if the right Nigerian entrepreneurs (investors) are in the value chain. This is one of the reasons I took some of Ellahlakes, hoping the management does good with all what they say on their website. FTN Cocoa why are you missing in action here?

Good question. same thing I always ask myself.
Always Missing in Action

Agbalowomeri:
Lol see how you are planning Elumelu's estate for him Person wey na Otedola woke from slumber. If not, by now you go dey receive exceptional items back to back

Exactly, if no be Ote ginger am from Transcorp, transcorp for no pass ₦1

DeltaBachelor:
Chai. 9ja o. I heard that about 5 people have died from this around Badagry area of Lagos State. I don’t know how true. Japa o while you can. We do japa runs sha, not cheap. Cheap my signature below for more info

5 people already?

ositadima1:
Let me explain what I know, as the "oversabi" guy that I am. Similar to treasury bills, the discount rate represents the percentage of the face value (the amount you initially invested) that will be paid to you upfront. For example, if you invest ₦1,000 at a 20% discount rate, you will receive ₦200 upfront after confirmation at the start of the tenure. This effectively means that what you actually invested is ₦800, which will be utilized by the issuer until maturity. At the end of the tenure, you will be paid back the full face value of ₦1,000.

The implied annual yield, on the other hand, takes into account the actual ₦800 you invested. It is calculated as ₦200 divided by ₦800, which reflects the return on the actual amount utilized. Note that the discount rate is calculated as ₦200 divided by ₦1,000.

Also, these values are annualized. For shorter tenures, the returns are prorated based on the actual length of the investment period.

I recall you did a similar explanation on the TBills thread for someone else.
Welldone.

megawealth01:
They have shared vision... Remember na the duo dey run things

yes. That's also true.

jideflash:
They have a 5 year strategic expansion plan using M&A. Nothing surprising here.
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/01/18/in-new-5-year-strategic-plan-access-corporation-outlines-measures-to-deepen-financial-services-in-africa/

I get.. I think @KarlTom has also posted sth similar.. Thanks.

My angle is that most times the exit of a Leader or front-runner does not usually guarantee the continued direction of his/her successor and even at that, it's usually at a much slower pace.
But Access case come different. They even became more aggressive in same direction

sterlingD:
And Access bank is on again

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/Access_Holdings_-_Acquisition_of_Bidvest.pdf

I bin think say late Wigwe 🙏 dey over exert himself..
Now I know say him dey learn work for where Aigboje dey.
Let it work out for them sha.