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Chimex38's Posts

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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 10:23am On Dec 03, 2024
BabsO2:
Ding !
you don join the Ding crew grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 8:57am On Dec 03, 2024
Effect of Devaluation for an initial investment from May 2023-Date.

Exchange rate May 2023
Officialrate:≈$460
Parallel Rate:≈$750

Exchange rate @Dec. 2024
Officialrate:≈1,700
Parallel Rate:≈$1,700.

Devaluation Decline...
From Official rate => -270%
From Parallel rate => -130%

I think idealy, if one has made about 300% or 150% in the stock market for the past 18-19months of this Govt, going by the official rate and parallel rate respectively, the person just about preserved the face value of his Capital from May 2023.

Given other economic indicators not yet considered such as inflation, purchasing power,etc, a 500%-1000% capital appreciation in the stock market for the past 18-19months and even into the better half of next year 2025 should throw one in the profit-margin and give one a better hedge against the present economy.
(just my opinion).
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 7:43pm On Dec 02, 2024
one of the very few companies in the premium board of the NGX.
Hopefully they will pay premium. grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 11:24am On Dec 02, 2024
Raider76:
In global trade Nigeria is a country not a region. Africa is the region. They are clearly divesting from the African region, in which Nigeria happens to be.
Another point..
May not really be specific about Nigeria but Africa region entirely.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 11:19am On Dec 02, 2024
HesInMe:
If you believe that a major cement maker exited Nigeria, once considered a high-growth cement market, because of carbon, then you have no clue how rich men think.

What these multinational executives seek the most to support their stock prices at home is profitable growth. But Nigeria technically hasn't stopped growing: 70% of our population is under 30 years, so we'll need cement and other building products to construct new homes, bridges, and landmarks for decades to come.

So why are they leaving? And why, too, did Nestle leave, even though almost as many babies are born in Naija each year as the entire population of Switzerland, their home base? Why is Guinness abandoning a young, bustling market of alcohol lovers?

They're leaving because Nigeria's currency devaluation makes that organic opportunity turn negligible when translated to their own currency. That's why the Large deal is happening in the first place. It is Econ 101 playing out in real life.
You made a point but
could also be that the buyer made a mouth watering offer as well.

The buyer could as well be more eager to buy than the seller is willing to sell..
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 9:35am On Dec 02, 2024
vacanci:
Is there a possibility that the new owners could flood the market with high offers to crash the price only to prevent a MTO at a higher price than expected or to manipulate the exit price?
From the Investment and Security Act 2007(ISA) by SEC.

seems there has been recent updates to some sections, dunno if these particular sections are affected.
Section 142, 143 & 144.

Below image is section 144(e)

My Interpretation: If they either intend to keep buying minority on the floor after declaring MTO, they have to disclose it officially to Shareholders or in the bid contract document as stated by this SEC rule book whichever the case.
It can't be a hidden agenda.
(I may be wrong)

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 7:29pm On Dec 01, 2024
megawealth01:
Kukuma call Oando no body go swallow grin
Lol... grin grin
It's obvious..
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 6:44pm On Dec 01, 2024
yMcy56:
Mandatory Takeover is not delisting!!
It's just in compliance with, and in fulfilment of the Rules guiding bulk purchase from Majority Shareholder(s).

The MTO may just be 1% from other Minority Shareholders just to fulfil the Rules & Regulations guiding the transfer from the majority shareholder.

We have seen it played out at different times on some stocks in NGX.
Delisting may eventually come if the new majority owner so wish, but definitely, MTO is not it.

Happy New Month to All.
Happy New Month as well
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 6:40pm On Dec 01, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
From Meta AI
OK. Noted
Summary:
MTO acronym means: Mandatory Tender Offer

It is in the definition of this Tender offer that one uses a mandatory takeover bid as a form of explanation.

thin-line difference there. but anyway, necessary for Academic purposes and other Professional/official usage

Thanks for helping to clarify.
BusinessRe: FIRS imposes N50 Levy For Transfers From ₦10,000 & Above by chimex38: 5:43pm On Dec 01, 2024
is this law being implemented?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 4:43pm On Dec 01, 2024
emmanuelewumi:
Mandatory Tender Offer
@HesInMe
I don't know if this is the official meaning of the acronym.
(might be).

But how I understand it is what I replied you.
all na still MTO grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 4:35pm On Dec 01, 2024
robobo:
From above for a Lafarge Nigeria with a capacity of 10.5m/t the

Upper buy could be 10.5 by $133m equals $1.4bn @ 1600/$ gives N2.24 trillion with outstanding shares of 16.11bn gives a valuation of N139 per share

The average buy could be 10.5 by $89m equals $935m @ 1600/$ gives N1.5 trillion bn with outstanding shares of 16.11bn gives a valuation of N93 per share

Lower buy could be 10.5 by $40m equals $420m @ 1600/$ gives N672 million with outstanding shares of 16.11bn gives a valuation of N42 per share

i have some few units of Wapco so i might be blinded by sentiment
Even in your blinded sentiment, you still see road waka. grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 4:26pm On Dec 01, 2024
HesInMe:
No vex, WAPCO shareholder here. what's this "MTO" you guys keep referring to? Management takeover?
Vex for wetin? grin

Not far from the truth.
AS written at the bottom of that disclosure.
"Mandatory Take Over"-

They probably will later on (mandatorily) buy out the minority to fully take over the company-100%
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 12:29pm On Dec 01, 2024
Why some companies no fit give report as straight to the point like this to avoid analysis, paralysis undecided grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 12:22pm On Dec 01, 2024
bovali:
Also, they do not plan to delist after acquisition
in the interim, yes.
Then what about the MTO on the letter?

They will, eventually.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 10:53am On Dec 01, 2024
Sunrisepebble:
Is it not just standard procedure to have a closed period anytime there’s a board meeting
Cutix recently called for EGM.
I don't think they called for closed period initially.

Though they later cancelled the EGM.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 10:51am On Dec 01, 2024
ositadima1:
₦3 not ₦2, what if eh no touch ₦3 again. Na to make decision, buy and average down or follow Oga Emma to wait for ₦2 and if eh no happen, joke is on you. That is if u dey interested in dogoyaro.
yes correct. Major support is around ₦3-₦3.2 sef.
I was just trying to quote him verbatim.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 10:35am On Dec 01, 2024
Princkez:
Time will justify...leave it for us,I will load more if it comes below #3.
Your point isn't different from what he said.
He said the patient ones will get it at ₦2.5 or so.. Same as sub 3 u highlighted. Which is the ideal support level.
So he isn't writing the stock off.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 7:11am On Dec 01, 2024
On the CP discuss.
I tried to do a little research.

Though I assume @Vacanci is coming from a place of experience that necessitated a CALL back feature as he calls it.


https://nairametrics.com/2023/11/11/commercial-papers-in-nigeria-in-2023-6-key-things-to-note/

screenshot extract below from nairametrics says otherwise
(they might be wrong huh)

Though experience over a supposedly Ideal situation.
I haven't done CP before.
Though I suppose all associated clauses shld be included in the contract paper during purchase.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 11:01am On Nov 30, 2024
KarlTom:
I must have skipped this initially.

What I meant was that in recent times the reportage of such deals were not prompt. Some took as much as 2weeks or more... smiley
OK. understood
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 9:59am On Nov 29, 2024
Mpeace:
A refinery in Gombe how do they want to transport crude oil to Gombe? Tankers, air or what? Or can they afford to lay pipelines from the niger delta to Gombe?
They think Dangote and BUA (kano born billionaires) no know why them site their refineries in Lagos and Portharcourt respectively?
Lol.. @air grin grin

Ur concerns are legit.
But I think the Magic has to start from Kaduna-R then connect to Gombe via just Bauchi.

Also crude has been discovered in Bauchi.
Just maybe, they are forecasting by the time the refinery comes on stream in few years time, things will be in place.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 9:52am On Nov 29, 2024
Raider76:
https://www.farooqkperogi.com/2024/11/is-port-harcourt-refinery-new-nigeria.html?m=1
Nawa Oo.
All these write-ups on the refinery..

I will at best take it as they are at the same stage DR was when former president PMB quickly commissioned it just before leaving.

So PH-R has to be ready just before December holidays to have sth to celebrate before the end of the budget cycle.

things will unfold later on.
Make we give Kyari's NNPC benefit of the doubt.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38:
KarlTom:
As previously discussed, these deals were not disclosed on the Corporate Disclosure Board... wink
But why?
Maybe at a later date huh

Edited:
Just checked, it was disclosed on the board yesterday.
Maybe I don't understand your statement.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 9:40am On Nov 29, 2024
chimex38:
Best bet for him would be export or sell to large storage facilities.

BUA, PH n Warri Refinery will take over the southern marketers when ready.

Dangote shld likely begin now to capture the regional-based marketers majorly in the North to help gain local market but with the large distance between Lagos n Northern states costing time n money, kaduna Refinery will be the go-to centre when it begins operation..

Truly, he may be limited locally in the long-run.

Just a forecast
Just after forecasting impact of geographic location of refinery.

New Refinery in Gombe
https://punchng.com/fg-approves-licence-for-27000-barrels-refinery/
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 6:47pm On Nov 28, 2024
megawealth01:
The lucrative one will go to Oando? grin
I sure say dem must bid n win.
grin
dem just dey like Access Bank.
Acquirers grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 6:44pm On Nov 28, 2024
Raider76:
Use this as lesson learned and apply it to the many similar chances that will come your way.
To break it down, probably he will have to be able to either predict the future or wait for next president-affiliated stock or senior political personnel
grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 6:40pm On Nov 28, 2024
Teenaira:
Oga, amend your sentence. Change the love to capital letters. Thank you already.
gringrin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 6:37pm On Nov 28, 2024
pluto09:
Government owned refinery cannot complete with a private one. The only way NNPC will sell at lower price is by subsidy either at the level of crude input or petrol output
The best bet will be to privatize it or sell it out outrightly .
Of course. I Suppose it will be privatized after they are all in good working conditions and performing at optimal capacity.


I am only trying to forcast which refinery will benefit which region at lower prices giving the geographic locations of the refineries..
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 5:19pm On Nov 28, 2024
Agbalowomeri:
Omo dem go finish Dangote grin
Best bet for him would be export or sell to large storage facilities.

BUA, PH n Warri Refinery will take over the southern marketers when ready.

Dangote shld likely begin now to capture the regional-based marketers majorly in the North to help gain local market but with the large distance between Lagos n Northern states costing time n money, kaduna Refinery will be the go-to centre when it begins operation..

Truly, he may be limited locally in the long-run.

Just a forecast
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 4:48pm On Nov 28, 2024
BabsO2:
At current exchange rate and oil prices, petrol cannot sell for N500. If oil prices go down to $30s then N500 is possible if the exchange rate stays fixed. If exchange rate also improves to N900/$ then even at current oil prices N500 will petrol be.
here comes the unfortunate Econometrics embarassed
True. I get.

Buh make I daydream in peace abeg. grin grin

This reality no funny.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 3:10pm On Nov 28, 2024
BHG:
https://thenationonlineng.net/ph-refinery-petrol-only-for-nnpcl-outlets/
yes.this!👍
Though seems they will commercialise it later on.

Fight go start surely but na better fight wey go benefit the masses.
Make BUA refinery come on stream in 1-2 year time to finish work.

Petrol==>₦500 or less🙏🙏
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 2:32pm On Nov 28, 2024
megawealth01:
PH Refinery: 200 Trucks Load Daily, 150,000BPD...

https://punchng.com/ph-refinery-200-trucks-load-daily-150000bpd-eleme-plant-dormant/

The oil battle don start grin
Thought I read somewhere.
It will only serve NNPCL retail outlets for now.

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