₦airaland Forum

ositadima1:
I didn't use peak values; I'm not that stupid (In fact I am but not that much). I used 75% of peak values. My inputs are from the ThisDayLive publication. Therefore, you can argue about my costs, but the input clearly isn't from me. Thank you.

Lol...
unless u mean "positivey stupid".
Even Great Inventors and activists usually are at some point in their journey

Ride on Sir; you dey try add depth to the discuss in ur own unique way.🙌

dapix:
Its a CSR initiative !!

Fixed

Omooloriredade:
https://nairametrics.com/2024/06/13/dangote-refinery-to-set-up-terminal-in-the-caribbean-for-export-of-petroleum-products/

This one?

In my opinion, still not the best move for Oando. Consolidate your Upstream business and clean up your books first. There is money to be made in Upstream liquids and Gas.

Oando is late to the party. Dangote has some positives - brand new refinery, latest technology, economies of scale, largest in the region. They will just be able to squeeze out their desired margin.

Sometimes it is better to buy a brand new car than buy a very old Mercedes benz. The benz might send you to an early grave.

Read this one too:
https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/petrotrin-refinery-attracts-nine-new-proposals-6.2.2051474.3eb2e1115c

It's definitely better to buy a brand new.

Not against your view in the slightest esp giving the risky, heavy capital, industrial and margin nature of the business

But trying to view this from a different perspective if they can pull it off,

But I think for both entities, they are trying to secure a market for their products..so as to increase the liquidity and availability of the supply/distribution Chain process down to final consumers for their major business line. Since this business-area is highly industralized, volatile, subject to long term contracts and as you inferred, already dominanted by the top IOCs and their subsidiaries.

Apart from export terminal in the Caribbean islands, Dangote also has few Oil wells of his own.

Comparing, Most of the Top IOCs have large Depot warehouses for their products. A ready market for their product when required.
I think SPDC should be the largest worldwide.
Some are also in the core downstream(Totalenergies), and for other IOCs, if not in Nigeria, they are in the Mid/downstream in other countries.

My summary is:
Non of the Top companies, exist purely as Upstream, downstream or Midstream. They are all in the distribution Chain partly to secure their market.
That has contributed to their relevance and dominance over the years.

So probably having a refinery to help guarantee their crude product market isn't bad.

But their books need to be cleared first. I suspect bargain price entry as the attraction for a desperate country wanting to sale/lease.

Based on the detailed second link you posted, the risks associated with purchasing old refinery are enormous and should be a no-no for now..

But if Wale could revive or start production with a portion of the refinery
(if their deal scales through) like kerosene, aviation fuel, etc, more like a modular aspect of it..
We know the Ajakuta steel mill is bad, but I learnt a portion functions to produce some basic iron parts(dunno how true).

Just like it's better to buy a new Mercedes than overhaul an old one..
But if a new one is out of reach at present, The engine of a cheap old Mercedes alone can be partially revived at least to take you down the street of your house From time to time.

Hopefully when the books are very good in years to come; then the Benz can gradually/fully be revived along side the bodywork in the long term for an inter-state journey.
Thereafter you fit even buy another Benz

GeeKudi:
Sounds like a potential misadventure.
Like Person wey don belle full wey dey find wetin go burst his stomach 😉.

Agreeded..
Though seems more like a rare opportunity to dive in at bargain price as the country seems more eager to sell/lease

Almost like our own condition here in Nigeria.

Bagwa:
https://trinidadexpress.com/newsextra/3-shortlisted-to-purchase-refinery/article_f82dd1ee-8025-11ef-abf1-af1d54a7aecd.html

KarlTom:
In simple terms OandO plc has become probably the only fully established Integrated Energy Company in Nigeria.

All these might seem like a French roulette but it is a well-arranged domino…the final piece being a REFINERY!

Hmmm. Prediction- not so far from the truth.

naturalflow:
The management of flourmills are a bunch of confused people.delist and go na,why are they raising funds from shareholders again?

you can say it again. Confused entity.

mikeapollo:
Why can't you allow me to deceive myself a bit and describe Oando as "my Oando" so that I can be happy at least for once in this country? Dont you know I am the CEO of Oando?
Please be careful.

I didn't say you deceive yourself;
No quote me out of context Sir


you are very correct with full authority to use the word.
na me invent am?

I believe we all do it sef whenever we buy any asset or stock, (I inclusive).. Like I said, na where person money dey, him mind dey.

Maybe I no relate my message well(English hard to use at times).

Generally speaking, I ONLY referenced the "my" word you used as a general word in our heads; sort of a mind-game attachment but that it gets in the way of some peoples replies at times on the forum during concrete stock discuss as discussions heat-up esp counter opinions.

NOT referring to the obvious cruise you are catching ..


Again, Just referencing the word and generalizing, not referring to You.

I believe you understand me, probably just pulling my legs

Emir01:
I can assure you that this a distraction or an academics exercise. After the first hearing, you won't hear anything again about the case for life

Lol.. Another angle.
Possible.

mikeapollo:
Hi guys,
I understand how you may feel. You may have some point but please, let us avoid the use of derogatory words directedly at each other. We never know who is or may become our friend or benefactor in real life.
Let's us be measured in our words and reactions even when we are justifiably angry.
I am not pretending to be a saint or better than anyone here, but we have to let cool heads reign.

Everyone of us should have learnt a lesson about where we went wrong!

Peace and best of luck to everyone, including those who believe in my OandO and those who do not (greetings to Godlyguy)

Comment below not referring to you.

@colored
(as only a point of reference).

Personalizing a stock with "my" in ones mind before typing is what I think usually leads to entitlement on a stock and thus emotional or insulting comments on counter opinions.

Of course, na where person money dey, im mind dey.

For those who do and yet engage counter opinions fairly , it takes only a great deal of self control, maturity amongst others.

Unless of course, one is just catching cruise using the "my" word, which naturally will be obvious.


Again, I quoted You just for reference on the colored word, not referring to You Sir.

Mpeace:
Nothing like indictment here. Its a simple application anchored on the freedom of information Laws.
They need details of the said $100 million paid to the lagos state government for the land. Dangote is not a party to the suit.

Mind you the law allows state governments to acquire individual lands for public purposes subject to certain conditions.

They might not also be legally able to pursur dang refinery on the issue of land because of certain limitation laws.

You extracted the contents much better..
It's for LASG and Ibeju-Lekki people to account for the money using FOI act.
Yes, agreed as you said, limitations of Land Laws allows for gross informalities and discretions that you can't hold DR against how he purchased it..(the Refinery must have personally documented all Transactions).


But I get where Mega is coming from.
Most of these kind of cases can spiral out of the initial context and include other defendants and prosecutors, even witnesses not in the initial court filling.

Even DR can be brought into the matter, leading to an unwanted face-off with Govt.

megawealth01:
Na $100m

Na part of the distraction. What if court indicts Lagos Government?

oh OK.. $100m.
I think the impact on DR operations will be little.
The Lagos govt then is no more..the new one will give DR cooperation it deserves.

Besides most of them are now in the federal system. as Lagos is almost a quasi-federal state..(my opinion)

Tinubu, Fashola, etc..
I think they will find federal support to justify the spending if need be.

DR major headache Na NNPC n IPMAN

megawealth01:
Alhaji no go rest with this refinery in Lasgidi. The delay strategies of his competitors are not ending soon ooooo

My guess is that issue of Govt of Lagos and lekki community to account for the use of $100bn paid by DR for their land.

KarlTom:
There's NOTHING 'Christianly' about the bolded...

more like Streetienity...

BabsO2:
Thanks. Questions now is validity of the Revaluation Surplus estimate of ₦15b and if there are other shares apart from the 2,753,786,788 ordinary shares that may show up as a result of stock split or whatever other things not yet recorded.

I noticed the revaluation surplus has been consistent since their 2022 financials.

Also this Revaluation surplus is solely based on their net-Land assets.
(not on Property or equipments, or other assets).


I think they are being fair for not even revaluing their land assets upwards since their acquisition in 2022 financials.
(Though I don't know how they arrived at the amount)
even though they've bought more quantities of land btwn ₦15mil & ₦80mil since then without revaluation.

Despite the inflation and value-added activities on the land assets since that time-frame.

Also the Bulk of that Revaluation is ₦13.6bn land assets from the ADARICE Processing Zone in Enugu. Seems they didn't purchase it, just handed over by Enugu Government to manage it.


As for the OS, I think it's the same.. If there is any addition or split within the year.. They should notify investors via the exchange.

Just like you stated, they will definitely come to the market in future to raise funds
because I suspect that the deposit-for-shares in their equity statements by some investors will be converted and added to issued share capital when they issue more shares in future.
(my opinion though).

mikeapollo:
It is 6 months prior to the AGM where the scheme is approved by shareholders. This was discussed extensively during Oando's case and that is what the SEC rule says..

Thank you.
However,
I think you are 99% right based on the subtle detail I research further.
It indicated, 6months prior to NOTICE of EGM not the actual EGM date.
emphasis on NOTICE/ANNOUNCEMENT.

you can re-check the images I posted yesterday above wrt MRS and Arbico exit this year.

(I still stand to be corrected though)

ice234:
Please how can I trade on NASD OTC market, can see some lovely stock there like 11 plc

I have no much knowledge on rules of trade there.

But the most i know is you need to open another NASD-OTC account with a licenced broker to trade if you want to.

Not all NGX stockbrokers are licence to trade on NASD-OTC.
but most are, especially the more popular traditional ones..

Also, some of their stocks are illiquid to trade due to low visibility..
Hence suits long term investors more than traders.

Most i know..

Agbalowomeri:
So MRS too wan delete? NGX should start enforcing more stringent conditions

Na so i see am Oo.
I agree with you.

Though MRS will trade in NASD-OTC

bovali:
2. Misinterpretation of Company Motions

During an AGM, a company may propose a motion for voluntary delisting, but this is often just the first step. The actual delisting announcement may come later, once approvals from the stock exchange and regulatory bodies are secured. People might confuse the proposal made at the AGM with the formal announcement of delisting, leading them to mistakenly focus on the share price before the AGM, instead of the share price at the time of the delisting announcement.

4. Market Reactions Around AGMs

Share prices often experience volatility around AGMs due to speculation about potential announcements. Shareholders might focus on the price leading up to the AGM, thinking it reflects the company’s latest position. However, the rules clearly specify that it’s the average price over the last 6 months before the official delisting announcement, not before the AGM, that is used to determine the buyback price.


In summary, the confusion arises because the AGM is often seen as a turning point for major corporate decisions, but the share price before the AGM is not the relevant figure. instead, the average price over the last six months before the formal delisting announcement is the correct benchmark according to the NSE rules. .

Good Insight esp in No2.

But @the boldeds seem not so correct I suppose.


buyback na same as buyout..
as used here..(make i no confuse)




Also i found out for delisting, its the Highest Price not Average price over 6months prior to notice of EGM.

Weldone...all the same👍👏

Streetinvestor2:
I don't understand the French. The average market price within 6 months and highest market price within 6 months can not be the same Which is used for the calculation

Highest Price within the Last 6months before notice of EGM.✔️
It's likely going to be ₦70, no matter the push in price beyond that. Notice of EGM has been published. unless a change at the EGM itself.

1st image is Arbico Plc that delisted earlier this year.

2nd image is MRS that is about to delist.

https://nairametrics.com/2024/06/28/shareholders-approve-mrs-oil-nigeria-plcs-quest-to-delist-from-ngx/

GeeKudi:
Ok. It means the company can unilaterally determine the buy out price without a meeting and consent of the shareholders. What if they refuse to sell like the Oando situation?
Maybe someone with better understanding of the rules can enlighten better.

Iets say FMN are within their legal right to pay ₦70, but if the minority shareholders can prove that majority of them have held on to the stock for more than 2 years or more without commensurate return on investment. They could make a case to reject the offer at the AGM and force a higher payout price..

Just my opinion to support the cause

mikeapollo:
The price shall not be less than the highest market price in 6 months prior to the date of the AGM where shareholders would give approval to the company to buy-out the shared.
Oando's proposal to buy-out shares was originated by some minority shareholders, and not an official request from the management itself (although it was later ordered by the Court to respond), so it was easy to be thrown away and killed by other shareholders.

The 6month rule is it Prior to Announcement by the company or Prior to AGM?

Or probably this your case is different since it originated from shareholders and not management?

Na NGx rule book go clarify.

bovali:
•Determining the Exit Price: The exit price, or the price at which the company buys back shares, is determined by looking at the average market price of the company’s shares over the last six months before the delisting announcement or the current market price—whichever is higher.

I’m guessing Flourmills was forced to announce before the price would reach 100 Naira lol.

@ Bolded confirms my assertion.. Thanks for the clarification and broader details.

going by that, your guess in your last line will also be right.

After the rumours filtered in, the share price went up to ₦59 and then they pulled it back to between ₦49-₦54, until they got their announcement ready.

Without that 2-3days pull back it would have gotten to ₦80 or more before the announcement..

dem know wetin dem do.

GeeKudi:
Exactly what I was expecting. Push it to 100 and insist on the nse delisting rule on buy out price.

Well, I thought this wont work since they issued the statement before the price will even get to 70 and above..

So the last 6 months prior to the statement is what counts.
(I stand to be corrected sha.)

ojeysky:
Lol well it's not Caverton entirely, it's market game players. Looks like it's going back to its sub 1.5, if it gets to sub 1 Na to average down.

Make i hear say carverton dey clean.

Result released almost Over 1month + in July..
Until it started rallying straight 2-3weeks ago and it got to their target of over 100% before Carverton's accountants noticed the error and issued a notice on NGx?
Why not seen before rally?
Dey play..
(My opinion sha, maybe wrong.)

crownprince2017:
They wouldn't do that because they have have better investor who are ok with their strategy.
they don't need your money, take your money else where and leave ellahlakes for us that love them..abi na by force yo convince you.

If they convince you what would they gain?

Ellahlakes never start anything, this one na just rehearsal, let the numbers show first..

@bolded.
unnecessary Sir.

Make una no start another E-war

unite4real:
In a sane clime, shareholders are supposed to sue Caverton for this punishment they are receiving

Not just shareholders but Regulators..
But this is Nigeria Sir.
we will get there gradually...

BabsO2:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42078_ELLAH_LAKES_PLC.-ELLAH_LAKES_PLC-PRESS_RELEASE_ON_Q4_UNAUDITED_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_AUGUST_2024.pdf

I calculated a book value of N 7.75 for Ellah Lakes. It looks so good.
Abeg please can someone double check. Perhaps I made an error.

I don't want to compare with PRESSCO or OKOMU book value yet till I get a cross-check

Shey na Equity/OS?
Then, it seems you are right on BV per Share.

Men Dem.. Let the house breathe!!

unite4real:
As for CAVERTON, I remember pointing out the error on my July 31 post on their H1 financial reports when most were celebrating. The error was very clear for any one to have picked it out when you looked at the figures closely but no way, people jump am pass. They all rushed into it as usual.

Caverton was trading at N1.4 and then the chaos moved it to N4.45 which was over 210% before Caverton had to use proper reporting to remove the minus sign and use open and close bracket to properly indicate a huge loss.

Now the journey is down hill and I expect the management to help those that bought at such a high price because the way am seeing it, people go cry sha.

Oga Emma has always maintained here that we should always crunch the figures on our own and examine properly. No one is immune to error including the authors of the reports

Forensic detector.. cool 😎.
Was wondering how it reached ₦4.

Though you posted it here, The market still fell for it.

Buh if you were a strong trader, you would've have guessed the psychology of the market the moment it started rallying that many will fall for it; make your money in the short term before ee cast and pull out.😁.

mails4funshi:
Do we want to consider reinvestment of income/revenue generated. This is a business building from scratch.

yes it is.
And there are so many logistics, security, storage, employment, seedlings, water, electricity, etc and structures to put in place with little income generated to stand firmly. I get all that.

But the narrative that I perceived on that post as the only/Major reason the farm acquired in 2022 isn't being cultivated yet is cuz of fallowing. Didnt sit well with me.

Hogwarthtrades:
You can not run away from bush fallowing if you are a large scale commercial farmer e.g growing annuals on 500 acres to about 10,000 hectares or more. Even with all the precision mapping , mechanisation and fertilizers, you can not avoid low yield acrage. it will only make economic sense to have your low yield fields fallow by rotating with cover crops then get back to production. Thats the way forward most serious agricultural research institutes are pushing for. Hence, the push for zero or low tillage and possible incorporation of buffalos or bison herd on farms to help with faster regeneration.

Good read, I agree..Presco, Okomu, Olam, etc can afford it without affecting their bottom line. and I believe they practice it. They are very large enough.

phadriz:
You said paparazzi?

MBC stockbroker is a major shareholder in ELLAHLAKES, they have over 350m units. Do you know it takes certain level of confidence for a creditors to do Debt to Equity conversion.

You make a point..