obailala:
This has to be the most flawed presidential election projection I've seen since this season. @Passingshot obviously still thinks the LP buzz is merely social media noise; he must be amongst those who believe 4 people are sitting in a room shouting Obi Obi

The fact he gave LP 5million even with his obvious bias shows that LP is making inroads. Atiku/Tinubu did not get 5million votes in 2007 under ACN.

Good thing is you gave LP 5 million even with low turnout of 19% you gave south East state. We are getting closer to reality and I expect to see that in your next prediction.

Zelenskyy:

Yen Yen Yen Yen Yen

See your face...

Obi will win more states than Atiku in your dreams

You think say politics is all about Online Gra Gra

Even the South East is still not sure for Obi...

Igbo people have not fully rallied behind Peter Obi and they are expecting non Igbos to rally round Obi ?

Chuks.... You better Wake up from your dreams and face the reality on ground..

Which is...

Peter Obi is going nowhere near the Presidency.

Bros in 6 weeks we will discuss this.

Today it's igbos are not supporting Obi, tomorrow it will be only igbos are supporting Obi, please stick to one propaganda.

Is Afenifere and Obasanjo supporting Tinubu? Are they not Yorubas? Or it applies only to Obi.

MrPresident1:


It is going to be very difficult for Obi to win more states than Atiku. PDP already controls 14 states while LP controls none

Tinubu will win at least 15 states, Obi will win minimum of 11, that leaves Atiku/Kwankwaso with 10.

What states do you think Atiku will win? He is only likely to win Delta in South, Then maybe Adamawa, Taraba, Gombe, Bauchi, Sokoto, Katsina & Niger, which is eight, and also contestable.

Obi will win 5 SE, 5 SS and 2 NC as a minimum.

MrPresident1:
None of the candidates especially the three frontline ones, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Alhaji Bola Tinibu or Mr Peter Obi will secure the spread to win the elections outright, that is, none of them will secure 25% of the votes in at least two thirds of the 36 states so there will be a runoff. Alhaji Tinibu will not secure outright victory because the votes and the spread in the northwest will be split between him, Alhaji Atiku and Alhaji Kwankwanso.

Alhaji Tinibu's votes in the NW will be split because of mutual mistrust between the Yoruba nation and the Fulani (story of Afonja, Awolowo, Abiola) but he will have majority total votes nationwide because of block votes from the Southwest

In the first ballot, Alhaji Bola Tinibu of APC will come first, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of PDP will come second and Mr Peter Obi of LP will come third

The runnof will be between Alhaji Tinibu and Alhaji Atiku, and the Igbo nation will become the beautiful maiden to be courted by both parties.

By historical antecedents, the Igbo nation (1960, 1979, 1983, 1993, 1999) have always aligned with the North. Alhaji Atiku will promise Igbo Presidency after doing only one term. He also apparently has a better balanced ticket in the eyes of the Igbo nation having a Christian, and an Ifeanyi as vice and the Igbo nation is majority Christian.

The Igbo nation will not trust the Yoruba nation's proposal because of the historical rivalry between both nations (civil war, 20pounds, notions of betrayals). Also, the Kanuri nation will definitely want the Presidency after Alhaji Tinubu's either 1 term of four years, assuming he also promises Igbo Presidency after 4years, or, after eight years completing his constitutionally allowed maximum of two terms and power has to shift to the North. The Kanuri Nation will most likely not allow Alhaji Tinibu to promise 1 term as it will affect their own chances of getting the Presidency.

To the Kanuri nation, the prospects of doing 8years as VP and another 8years as President will be too juicy to allow to fail, the reason is the Kanuri nation will not allow the Fulani to take over when its the North's turn once again as both of them are well matched and equal rivals in the North, also sharing mutual mistrust for each other. So, realistically speaking, the Kanuri nation will not allow Alhaji Tinibu to pledge only one term.

In the final analysis, The Igbo nation will pledge their votes to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and in the runnoff, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will win the elections, thus sealing the Fulani as the Master tribe in Nigeria

You don't have an idea of who goes for a run off. The first person with the highest vote count, then second person will have won the highest states. Obi will win more states than Atiku.

garfield1:


If you are used to the constitution, law and elections,you won't be debating this.if you compare it with the one for governorship,it clearly states that a governor must have one third spread in two third of the states.it never included state capitals.why? The fct is viewed by the constitution as a state.that is why it is included.ask yourself,why must the president elect fulfill 25% in fct?

Olisa Agbakoba expressed same concern as I did in his interview this evening with Politics today.

https://twitter.com/channelstv/status/1615782425765756935?t=rimPwGUKxgwAdj2AsE29BQ&s=19

lathrowinger:
IPOB character

Seeing that you are in Kaduna, you should be more familiar with Bandit character.

APCHaram:


This is beyond politics .

I as the OP is neither Yoruba or an APC supporter but the actions of you fellow osus in claiming Lagos as free for all while attempting to annex the Niger Delta exposes you as a land grabbing thief.

Even your collective political agenda as captured by the Obidient exposes your Zikist ambitions to continue the parasitic centrist agenda which you igbos brought upon us.

Why also is it that you will never hear an Igbo call for a return fiscal autonomy but instead its to continue were you stopped 56ys ago ?

You are the enemy of the south but I thank God that the north is now aligning with the real better south (SW and SS) in reviewing the current parasitic centrist system back to regional governance with full fiscal autonomy for regions/states.

Stay your lane.

You will cry tire, Yorubas are behind Obi, you a nameless anonymous and irrelevant online robot don't and will never matter in the scheme of things.

Looking at your profile, all your topics are on Igbo, keep on providing free accommodation for Igbos in your empty skull

OneTemplate:


If you say so. Just don't attempt causing any IPOBian disorder and chaos when Obi loses woefully.

Our armed forces and even ordinary citizens will be ready for you delusional folks.

What will be more woeful is when Atiku/BAT looses, at least one of them must loose. Why the headache for a structureless party? We have at least 4 other Igbo presidential candidate, why are you not focused on them?

After Lagos rally you will likely enter convulsion.

ednut1:
The hypocrisy stinks

I am surprised that OP an ethnical bigot is in support for Jakpa.

PHIPEX:
This was upon the fact an Igbo man was the VP in the opposing party yet MKO even won Anambra, you guys are just ingrates

Bros don't buy their game. Their aim is to instigate Igbo Vs Yoruba war as they can't phantom why their brothers are behind Obi.

Can an online anonymous urchin be more Yoruba than OBJ, Pa Adebayo, Farotimi, Okupe etc.

If it is sure of what it is saying in nairaland, let it go to a less anonymous platform like YouTube, Instagram to share its idea.

* I used *it* as the account could be a robot.

OneTemplate:


What is a sane and rational non-Igbo person looking for in the SE? Especially today? Same SE most Igbo who have the means are fleeing?

Meanwhile, keep bragging about benefitting from every inch of Nigeria. We will see how long that will continue.

Who is we? All these robots on nairaland sef tire me.

The painful pill for this iron bucket is that Ondo, Ekiti and Osun rallies by LP was successful. Yorubas are with PO & Datti. You may enter depression after Ogun and Lagos rallies

nothingspoil70:
Stop wasting your saliva my people. Pity obi is going nowhere. In the ( very unlikely) event that he wins, he won't even be there for four years. Nigeria is too big for such a novice to handle

Internet is a leveler where someone like you who is irrelevant in the scheme of things, and have achieved nothing - apart from having all the promo code for 2G data at N100, will make such bold statement, with an empty skull, and still feel good that they are making sense.

Trapnews:

Obasanjo does not represent the great Yorubas but Jagaban does the more reason OBJ is jealous of Tinubu

Where and when did Yorubas come together to take this decision?

INDOMIE9090:
did he win apart from anambra yes or no ?

Let Obi win in Osun, and get 40% in other South West state like Abiola did in South East.

INDOMIE9090:
but abiola only won in anambra state
Tofa won the remaining 3 states

Was Tofa an Igbo man? Did Abiola not get 40% minimum in all SE state?

lhordspy:

https://twitter.com/Baruch4ever/status/1613241845278191623?t=exU0s7AEH7cbNvXJxpqxeA&s=19


https://twitter.com/Baruch4ever/status/1613787665836515328?t=HQlQSohcVMz8bDGUI5ai9Q&s=19


https://twitter.com/Baruch4ever/status/1613660550034231297?t=xHZqD5gjtNZFcUjVXP1q0A&s=19

- Olusegun Abisola
Online Independent.ng Editor

Your own is to bring tribe and hate. Anambra voted for Abiola, Obi is from Anambra, return the favour

seunmsg:
Peter Obi will not win Delta and Benue. Tinubu will win Katsina and Kaduna. Kano is too close to call.

Which one will Tinubu and Atiku not win? All your post is Obi.

Mfetenang:
Ikwere and Ijaw will vote for Peter Obi in Rivers State abi?
You will have a heart attack when you hear the results of the election. Expecting Southern minorities to vote for an Igbo candidate is the biggest mistake Peter Obi has made in this election. Save my post for future reference after the elections.I will say less for now.

Cry more

@OP, Though your username gives a poor impression.
Your political analysis are always spot on. You use logic without bias. Weldone and keep it up.

IIAbdul:
Between The DG DSS and a state governor in Nigeria who is more powerful among them?

Only the president is more powerful than an executive governor in nigeria. Infact they cannot be arrested due to Immunity they have.

swuftz:
Pls dear Nairalandees. I was monitoring the Channels TV Town Hall meeting organised for the Labour candidate and his Vice. But I got confused midway going by the questions and answers proffered by the Obi and his Vice. Is Obi contesting for Anambra governorship election or Local government?. Pls before you answer me, kindly go back and watch the program again. Is Obi really qualified to contest for Nigeria presidency?. OMG. Wahala dey o.

When will your candidate come out?

I am surprised you had 2 hrs to watch them, and all you do is to open a thread after the session.

wwwihy:
INEC is yet to receive list of agents for LP in over 90,000 polling units across the country with 94% from the North West, North East and North Central....

We told them that Presidential Election is not Ummuna meeting exco election

When does post from twitter become sources of news? Is the Agbadoite an INEC official?

At least Tinubu is now mentioning Obis name, unlike the past when he says the other one

Penguin2:
Some projections have thrown up the likelihood of a presidential run-off election in the 2023 presidential election for the first time in the history of Nigerian election. This is because of the emergence of four formidable front-liners for the election, in an exercise that has hitherto been a two man race. It has become so rife that even INEC, for the first time, said they have ordered for extra ballot papers in preparation for a likely run-off election.

But while the supporters of each candidate will give you a thousand and one reasons why their candidate will win at first ballot, the likelihood of a run-off should not be ruled out.

What The Law Says About Who Should Make It To A Run-off.

The constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria already envisaged the likelihood of a presidential runoff election and made provision for such. It states that in the eventuality that there many presidential candidates in a presidential election and none of them secures the constitutional provision to be declared victorious at first ballot, the candidate with the highest number of votes cast, will go into a runoff election with the candidate who won the most number of states.

Now, with that constitutional provision in mind, which candidate do you see winning the highest number of votes cast and which do you see winning the highest number of states?

My Projection

With Atiku seeming to have the masses of the north singing his name, and considering that over the time, the north records the highest voter turnout, I’m projecting Atiku to win the Simple Majority votes. But it is also tricky here because if Atiku fails to get the votes he’s hoping to get from the south and those states throw their weight behind Peter Obi, Obi might likely flip that position and get the simple majority and only fall short of spread.

On who wins the most states…. Now, this is tough one. But let’s suppose Atiku wins simple majority due to millions of northern votes and the struggle for who won the most states is between Obi and Tinubu …

Now, every pundit, including opponents, agrees that Peter Obi will win Southeast and Southsouth. That’s 11 states. Similarly, oppositions have conceded Plateau, Benue and Abuja to him. And that gives you 14 states; this is what is practical, empirical, factual, verifiable and demonstrable. But if you permit me to join those who claim Peter Obi will flip Lagos, then you 15 states for Obi.

On Tinubu, he’s likely going to win all of Southwest states. That’s 6 states. Now, add Kwara and Kogi, due to affinity with the Yoruba, and Borno and Yobe, due to Kashim Shettima, that’s 4 states plus 6, which makes it 10 states. Again, in the Northwest, people have been saying Tinubu will win Zamfara due to Mattawale’s dedication to his campaign, which will make it 11 states. Some of his supporters have also argued that he is also likely to win Gombe due to Governor Yahaya Inuwa’s vigorous campaign for him. So let’s add Gombe, and you have 12 states. Or should we add Nasarawa because Governor Sule is also sincere with his campaign for Tinubu and APC chairman is from there? Then you have 13 states. This is what is factual, practical and empirical for Tinubu, but he has a lot of probables surrounding him.

Note: If Obi succeeds in winning Lagos as some are projecting, then, that’s minus one for Tinubu which will reduce him to 12 states.

Likely Surprises…

Before I conclude, I make due to point out some of the likely surprises that the presidential election might spring.

In Nasarawa…. Peter Obi might end up winning this state when you consider that there is a demography of about 55% Muslims and 45% Christians (some have said they are 50/50, but I don’t think I agree with that). Now, if the Christians end up voting in bloc for Peter Obi and the Muslims split their votes between Tinubu and Atiku, what do you think will happen?

In Kaduna…. Even residents of Kaduna are attesting to the fact of the growing popularity of Labour Party in the state, maybe due to Datti. Add that to Southern Kaduna voters. Now, if the Muslims split their votes between Atiku and Tinubu, and Southern Kaduna voters vote in bloc for Peter Obi, with some little fraction of Muslim votes due to Datti, what does that tell you?

Then Taraba…. Taraba has always followed the voting pattern of the south (southeast and Southsouth ) since 1999. People mistake this for loyalty to PDP but I think it’s wrong because if you argue they are loyal to PDP then you can equally argue that PDP will still win Southeast because the region has voted PDP since 1999. So, in essence, Obi might just spring a surprise and win this state. But that’s speculative.

My Prediction

Lastly, I’m predicting that if Atiku and Obi make it to the runoff, then Obi will win due to southern solidarity because more Southwest voters are likely going to be persuaded to vote Obi.

If Obi and Tinubu advance to the runoff, Tinubu will win in the morning because core northern voters would rather vote a yam as Nigerian president than vote an Igbo man. Obi should avoid going into a runoff with Tinubu.

But if Atiku and Tinubu advance to runoff, then Atiku wins because Southsouth and Southeast will easily vote Atiku.

So, there you have it. What do you disagree with in my projections and which two candidates do you see making the runoff?

Penguin is a bird of reason!!!

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

Very detailed analysis, all these scenarios are likely. But I think PDP/NNPP will make a deal with Obi if they don't make the rerun. This is because they can get a better deal with LP, unlike APC with heavyweight politicians.

Another point is that a rerun will likely happen after the governorship elections and Federal House of assembly. So commitment by elected politicians to major parties will drop.

UnfairLife7:
I honestly feel for Obi seriously

The show of shame of his campaign and the bad name he gave Psquare the upcoming artists performing in an empty field in PH is so embarrassing

I honestly feel for him on a more serious note

I sincerely wish he will not giveup just like his boss Atiku in contesting again after the election

Joke apart, I honestly feel for him

This boy is really working overtime. You will earn 10k on top your 30k this January.

How Obi enter the matter?

duro4chang:
Kano's votes will even cover a whole geopolitical zone in the south. If you know you know.

It must be the zone with waec registration higher than the whole northwest.

Bulaba!

politicoNG:


https://twitter.com/SERAPNigeria/status/1610954697870905344?t=ISFlDpCZ9UC4TolnuraRMQ&s=19

Please include Sowore.

But on a serious note this SERAP are just noise makers who have not won any notable case. Always suing as if its Suya or Kilishi.

LeoDeKing:
Lmao.

Just imagining the way a particular tribe will start crying, wailing and cursing because of "the future generation". And it is their fraudulent pandora Obituary that will secure that "future generation".

Meanwhile, their stale poppycock goes thus:

1. Tinubu visits many places within short periods to meet schedules:
Obituarists: This man is too desperate.

2. Peter Obi visits two places within short period:
Same Obituarists: This man is just too energetic. How is he able to be in all these places at the same time?

Clowns.

You always focus on this particular tribe because deep inside you, you know its their turn. So keep on demarketing them for your kinsman.

Amebo Harry, who never fight with your brother raise hands in the air... no hands

Laughable

It's good to see elder statesmen standing for the best candidates. From OBJ to Chief Clark. I suspect Kwakwanso endorsement this month. PO hasn't campaigned in the north west yet, he's likely In talks with RMK.

2023 is the year of endorsements.