₦airaland Forum

I actually bought a big book to try and learn technical analysis...

The minute read the page below, I knew technical analysis was not for me...

Lol... Astrology and equity investing... In the same sentence... Haaaaa...

Respect to you guys though... I doff my hat...

All of all these grammar and annotated diagrams ontop "To buy or not to buy"...

Nah wah oh...

Three gbosa to the technical analysis folks...

Mr Nosakhare Ugiagbe CFA (Senior Manager, Corporate Financial Strategy, Binance) is our guest on this episode of the podcast.

We discuss the basic foundations for successful investing, how the Nigerian Economy can grow & why index/ ETF investing rather than individual stock picking may be best for retail investors.

Articles and podcasts of the guest can be accessed on www.nosaugiagbe.com

Thanks for listening...

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy80ZWI5NzRjNC9wb2RjYXN0L3Jzcw/episode/ZDk0ZjUzYTMtMmIxYy00Y2E0LWFlZjAtYWViOTBhOTk0YTc5?ep=14

Mrs Ololade Olayanju, CFA (Relationship Manager, WSTC financial services LTD & Author, "The Debt Code" is our guest on the podcast this week.

We discuss her switch from banking into core finance, good debt Vs bad debt, how to break free from debt and her biggest lessons in finance so far.

Thanks for listening.

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy80ZWI5NzRjNC9wb2RjYXN0L3Jzcw/episode/ZTY0ZjVkYjUtYThlMi00Yjg5LWI0NGQtNzU2MTQ3MDY1MGI0?ep=14

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70TIrqjjQhQ

International breweries fact behind the figures

FYI

This week on the podcast, we chat with Mr Eric Akinduro (Chairman, Ibadan Zone Shareholders Association) about The role of Shareholders Associations and Shareholder Activism.

We discuss benefits of joining a shareholder association and how they pursue positive change in public companies.

Thanks for listening.

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria/episodes/73-Shareholder-Associations-Activism-A-chat-with-Mr-Eric-Akinduro-e1pv76e

DrAwo:
For contrast, compare the same numbers for GTCo over the preceding 5 years (2013 to 2017)

GTco
Deposit growth 42%
Loan growth 40%

ImperialCovfefe:
Great insights boss, as usual. Let me add some color.

For the NPL, they simply are more aggressive in pushing loans to [IFRS] stage 2. When macro changes or they sense issues with the creditors, they preemptively take some charges and push the loans to NPL, far faster than their peers.

As for the loans, Agbaje has repeatedly stressed in the earnings call that the interest rate was being artificially suppressed by the CBN, and has been positioning for a while for a rise in rates to match with the underlying macro realities. He allowed lots of loans to be paid back in full without redeploying them and noted he doesn't want to even think about competing in reducing loan rates to the highest [credit] quality firms.

It's clear that GTCo is deliberately slowing loan growth possibly due to the low interest environment or for some other reasons best known to them...

Now that rates are up, we'll see what cards they have up their sleeves...

Very stimulating chat by the way...

For contrast, compare the same numbers for GTCo over the preceding 5 years (2013 to 2017)

GTco
Deposit growth 42%
Loan growth 40%

ImperialCovfefe:
Great insights boss, as usual. Let me add some color.

For the NPL, they simply are more aggressive in pushing loans to [IFRS] stage 2. When macro changes or they sense issues with the creditors, they preemptively take some charges and push the loans to NPL, far faster than their peers.

As for the loans, Agbaje has repeatedly stressed in the earnings call that the interest rate was being artificially suppressed by the CBN, and has been positioning for a while for a rise in rates to match with the underlying macro realities. He allowed lots of loans to be paid back in full without redeploying them and noted he doesn't want to even think about competing in reducing loan rates to the highest [credit] quality firms.

Exactly...
I agree with you 100%... I've listened to all their calls in the last 2 years and it's very plain to see what's going on...

Between 2017 and 2021 (5 years), the following are the rate of growth in deposits and loans by FUGAZ save first bank.

Zenith Bank
Deposit growth 88%
Loan growth 57%

Access bank
Deposit growth 210%
Loan growth 110%

Uba
Deposit growth 130%
Loan growth 62%

GTCo
Deposit growth 100%
Loan growth 28%

To verify what I'm saying, compare the percentage loan growth over the last 5 years for GTCo and all the other members of FUGAZ...

Concluding part...

The main point is that GTCo seem to have consciously limited the amount of loans they offer which has limited their net interest income and eventually, their profits...

They presently have the highest NPL amongst the FUGAZ (6.1% if my memory serves me well) which might explain why they are trying to clean their books first before resuming loan issuance at usual rates...

As I said, I might be wrong. I'm just sharing my thoughts after looking at their books...

I hope this helps ..

ImperialCovfefe:
Interesting. Examples of those conscious decisions?

There you go....

ImperialCovfefe:
Interesting. Examples of those conscious decisions?

I wrote an article on GTCo some time ago...
It might express my thoughts better but it's not allowing me to share...

ositadima1:
I think Moat breached if we go by d books minimum 10% growth rate. I will need to compare with other banks in d same space.

It may appear so but I think they know what they are doing...
I might be wrong though...

ositadima1:


Moat acid test on Gtb(GTCO) Group from d book Rule #1 by Phil Town.

Appart from EPS and ROE other values are in Billion Naira. Average Growth over periods 10 year, 5 year and 1 year are in %.

ROE, return on equity, has remained above 20%, while profits grew along side equity, from 2019, profits started slowing down.

EPS has had 7% compounded growth in d last 10 years, with a sharp 14% drop in 2021.

So what's your conclusion or your thoughts?

Moat breached?
Moat intact?
Moat under significant threat?

I personally think they are in a bad run of form due to certain conscious decisions they've made... I expect them to hit their usual stride in a year or two...
This is a personal opinion and not investment advice...

We dive deeply into the Flour Miller's listed on the exchange in this conversation with Praise Ihansekhien (Deputy Team Lead, Research, Meristem Nigeria).

We explore their products, future prospects and how retail investors can profitably invest in them.

I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did.

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria/episodes/72--A-deep-dive-into-the-listed-Flour-Millers-A-chat-with-Praise-Ihansekhien-e1pa92t

Heishere:
Average result from UCAP

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36921_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC%20_QUARTER_3_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FO.pdf

Oga mi, Don't be deceived by the EPS...
Look at the result again sir (or ma)...

This week on the podcast, we have a Masterclass Discussion with Mr Caleb Fowowe (ALM Risk Analyst, USS LTD, UK) themed "Understanding Risk".

We talk about what risk is, how we face it daily and how retail investors can mitigate against it in their daily investing practice.

Thanks for listening.

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria/episodes/71--Understanding-risk-A-chat-with-Mr-Caleb-Fowowe-e1omals

rahjan:
The broker said the stock was "poised to move" silly me, I thought he meant up. -Randy Thurman

Loool...
Nice one!

thesilentone:
This is why I don't hit my head against the wall about Macro-economics. Too many variables with little control over anything.

I focus on the business/company.

This is the best approach as well in my humble opinion...

safepaulooo:
The bolded is strongly prophetic. If we blend your technical insight with bible prophecy, it could well be the USA. According to inspired prophetic words by Daniel in Daniel 2 vs 29 to 45, the current Anglo American world power represented by the feet of the image, will soon be toppled by God's Kingdom represented by the stone cut out of the mountain. That will bring to an end the successive human world power domination on the earth. All evidence shows this grand takeover is drawing near. Interestingly, even your technical insight is revealing same. Very likely before 2029, no one truly knows when, but this decade is special as seen in its breakout with the pandemic in 2020. EXITING.....

This one is spiritual analysis oh...

When technical and fundamental analysis don't work, spiritual analysis always does the trick...

We go back to the very basics in this episode of the podcast where we chat with Mr Victor Onyema (Portfolio Manager, Norrenberger Asset Management).

We talk about why we must invest, what to invest in, how to open a stockbroking account, deciding what to buy and what to do when you don't know what to do...

All beginners to investing should listen to this conversation several times over...

Thanks for listening...

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria/episodes/70--Back-to-the-basics-A-chat-with-Mr-Victor-Onyema-e1nvi8p

thesilentone:
Longtime post but I wanted to say thank you for posting this.

Many Thanks my boss...

At the time I looked at Fidelity, it didn't meet my criteria so I didn't buy it. They dropped off my radar for a while and in that time interval, they had improved quite a lot.

No regrets though... The bank I bought in place of Fidelity has done very well for me as well and there's still room for more growth...

Overall, the banks should do well if they don't get carried away by Hubris...

thesilentone:
Fidelity Bank has its H1 Earnings conference call later today at 3pm - if it floats your boat. You can register on their website.

Just when I thought I had heard all the expressions in English, you throw in a new one...
Nice...
Hopefully, I'll listen to the audio recording afterwards...
Thanks...

On the podcast this week, we chat with Ms. Juliana Ogunkoya (Equity research analyst, Meristem Securities Ltd) about the Breweries listed on the NGX.

We explore why their revenue/ profits declined significantly from 2018 till 2020, why profits are rising now and future prospects in the industry.

I hope our conversation improves your investing practice.

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria/episodes/69--A-look-at-the-breweries-A-chat-with-Ms--Juliana-Ogunkoya-e1nbu59

gfaruk:
Pls and pls and pls
Is there any God fearing man or woman that can walk me through dis
I really want to knw abt stock trading, and have been trying to find a tutor here,
Reommends pages, pdfs for me, i would appreciate whatsapp training, i really want to learn pls sir’s and ma’s

There is no silver bullet that solves it all. I also doubt anyone will have the time to tutor you one on one. The onus lies on you to seek the information you require...

A good place to start is to keep following this page and reading from those that you feel not just only sound knowledgable but those that have a reproducible method to what they do. If there is no predictable and reproducible method to their recommendations, take it with a pinch of salt... Not everyone that says they are an expert is actually an expert...

You can also listen to my podcast where I try to simplify investing and also get the opinion of industry experts as well.

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria

I wish you all the best...

creategist:
It's great to have you back on the air Doc! Yet another high quality guest. Thank you for this podcast!

Thanks for the kind words indeed...
Hopefully, we should be more stable/ regular going forwards...
Many thanks...

We are back!

This week on Value Nigeria Podcast, we have a chat with Mr Sodiq Safiriyu (Equity research analyst, Meristem Securities Ltd) about Understanding Banks.

We talk about the key role banks play in the economy, how banks make money & key metrics to analyse a bank.

Thanks for listening...

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria/episodes/68--Understanding-Banks-A-chat-with-Mr-Sodiq-Safiriyu-e1moglh

creategist:
Hi Doctor Ajibs. I miss listening to this podcast. Please when can one expect more new episodes?

I sincerely apologise for the prolonged silence... The planned guest cancelled at the last minute unfortunately hence the gap...

Hopefully, we should be up and running this Sunday or at the most, the next...

I appreciate the checkup...

No one likes to be in pain but as much as we try, pain is inevitable in one form or another...

What lessons about life and investing can we draw from pain?

My latest article delves into this:

https://stocksng.com/two-kinds-of-pain/

Your feedback helps! Thanks

BabsO2:
Please do you know what is this Investment securities FVOCI that eroded last year non interest income of these banks noted above.

You are asking a core accounting/ financial reporting question...

Difficult to explain here (I'm still learning it myself) but I suggest you Google and read about IFRS 9.it has all the answers you seek...