₦airaland Forum

Jesus wept !

John 11: 35

Thanks all,

i hope my healing process starts right away, as i am still in denial of what i saw yesterday! damn!!!!

MBJ,

She gave me the password a while, when she was jobless, and i was d one in charge of most of her job applications.

I was the one that wrote her test into the FED. govt parastal she is now, i noticed changes in her attitude few months after, i also lost my job some few months after,  she started acting way too nice and dodgy, signs of someone cheating, so i became more observant

tunnytox:
@OP
You're not patient enough! you only caught her by the elbow you should have waited until you get a good grip of her. If you're good and patient enough to stalk her to the Airport why not complete the job by stalking her to the hotel and or the venue of their supposed love nest?

as far as i'm concerned you saw nothing and you can't prove anything, you should have listened to MBJ advise and follow that up with your stalking to get a good grip, lol

2 things to note is that she started calling you for 2 hours after the incident and even sent a text that the gentleman is her cousin. He could have been her cousin as far as i'm concerned.

As at yesterday evening, she claimed to be at her base in s/s, this "cousin" i never heard off or knew baffles me. who knows were she was coming from, as she was leaving lag after at least 4 days she has arrived , as her ATM withdrawal reflected on her e-mail box

thanks folks 4 ur advice, TODAY WAS THE D-DAY, i actually went to MMA2 in lagos, and guess who i saw my girl friend now ex- TODAY
THE STORY (26 MONTHS RELATIONSHIP)
i was armed with a camera, as i had planned to take good snap shots and leave, she came handy with a guy who excorted from God knows where, after she had cleared herself for checking, she left the counter and started talking and getting cozy with the dundie, i called her number, she cut it off immediately, i had to change my initial plan of just taking shots and leaving. i went to there front , after i had ensured eye contacts with my now ex. i stormed out of the hall.

she started calling some 2 hours, when i refused to pick , sent text messages telling me how the guy is her COUSIN
she called off the flight and said she is now in lagos. GIRLSSSSSSSSSSS
R

Looking at the trend at which corruption has eaten deep in to the fabric of all levels and sectors of Nigeria, It can also be argued that Nigeria's major problem is not power, Unemployment, Agriculture or Education.; but corruption, Should a government to be sworn on May 29, 2011 create a portfolio for MINISTRY OF ANTI CORRUPTION ?

I am a student of research methodology, and i have great reservations for the polls, i wonder if they considered the skewness of the voting age population in choosing the respondents, e.g 75% of the voting population are youths, who tends to be differently inclined in there voting pattern to the aged ones, for example My 70 yrs old dad would prefer voting for status quo versus change, but not we his children.

Even as popular as Fashola is in Lagos , he would not get up to 92% of the total votes cast, i am placing him in the range of (74%- 78%) of the total votes cast, all things being equal.

Jonathan is not as popular to get up to 60.8% of the total votes cast,!!!!!!!!!!!?HuhHuh

i challenge any one to a bet , with the voting projection i released earlier on voting pattern projection (but with a -4% to 4% deviation)





GEJ BUHARI RIBADU


NW 5.94 Million (30%) 11.28Million (57%) 2.57Million (13%)



NE 3.33 Million (31%) 5.48 Million (51%) 1.94 Million (18%)


NC 4.27 Million (40%) 3.97 Million (37%) 2.45 Million (23%) .


S.W 4.43 Million (31%) 4.14 Million (29%) 5.71 Million (40%)


S.S 7.56 Million (80%) 0.87 Million (9%) 1.04 Million (11%)


S.E 5.22 Million (69%) 0.91 Million (12%) 1.44 Million (19%)


TOTAL VOTES 30.76 Million ( 42%) 26.65 Million ( 36.2%) 15.15 Million ( 21%)

-4% - +4% deviation (38% - 46%) (32.2% - 40.2%) (17% - 25%)



With the above , the presidential election winner is too close to call. though still tilts in favour of GEJ

I am a student of research methodology, and i have great reservations for the polls, i wonder if they considered the skewness of the voting age population in choosing the respondents, e.g 75% of the voting population are youths, who tends to be differently inclined in there voting pattern to the aged ones, for example  My 70 yrs old dad would prefer voting for status quo versus change, but not we his children.

Even as popular as Fashola is in Lagos , he would not get up to 92% of the total votes cast, i am placing him in the range of (74%- 78%) of the total votes cast, all things being equal.

Jonathan is not as popular to get up to 60.8% of the total votes cast,!!!!!!!!!!!?

i challenge any one to a bet , with the voting projection i released earlier on voting pattern projection (but with a -4% to 4% deviation)





                                                  GEJ                                      BUHARI                                    RIBADU


NW                                  5.94 Million  (30%)                          11.28Million    (57%)                2.57Million  (13%)



NE                                   3.33 Million   (31%)                           5.48 Million  (51%)                 1.94 Million (18%)


NC                                  4.27 Million    (40%)                         3.97 Million   (37%)                  2.45 Million (23%) .                                   
                                           

S.W                                  4.43 Million   (31%)                          4.14 Million  (29%)                  5.71 Million (40%)


S.S                                   7.56 Million    (80%)                         0.87 Million    (9%)                 1.04 Million (11%)


S.E                                    5.22 Million  (69%)                          0.91 Million    (12%)             1.44 Million  (19%)


TOTAL VOTES                    30.76 Million ( 42%)                  26.65 Million ( 36.2%)             15.15 Million ( 21%)

-4% - +4% deviation         (38% - 46%)                               (32.2% - 40.2%)                 (17% - 25%)



With the above , the presidential election winner is too close to call. though still tilts in favour of GEJ

I seriously need your advice, i have access to my gf's e-mail address, my gf works somewhere in the south south, though her family is in lagos, while i am currently in osun state, i stumbled on a flight booking for next week on her mail address, showing a planned return from lagos to a neigbouring state  to her base in the south south.  she has never told me about this, and we talk for long everyday

What do i do?  Although i will be in lagos on the said day, should i stalk her to the airport?

Job security is  simply when you rig your election as an incumbent   .

Wadeoye:
Sambo knows he is not worth toilet paper in the north.

I don't even know how someone will think GEJ will get more than 40% of the SE votes with Akwa Nbom PDP decamping to ACN. You be mumu, you think Oshiomole will support GEJ's ambition? Based on what? Yes GEJ will get some votes in Edo but will be less than 30%.

You will be surprised when votes start rolling in - PDP will not get 40% of SE votes except if they rig.

I am disappointed with your analysis.

There was no were i said oshiomole will support GEJ's ambition, he is an ACN governor and will almost certainly support his presidential candidate.   PDP's weakest link will be in Edo state.

Akwa ibom is not in the S.E  , it is a south south state.    Dont be deceived about televised decampees, it is normal, a few aggrieved ones might leave the party, but will be negligible in the big picture.   In fact it was televised in Anambra state, Some PDP members decamped to ACN,  and vice versa   !!

Wadeoye:
You guys are deceiving yourself. How on earth will somebody think Buhari will not get 25% of Plateau state? It is on record that Buhari won the presidential election in Ogun state in 2007. Those that voted for him the are still there and will still vote him even Bakare is not his running.

Tell me a state in South West were Buhari will not get 25% percent. You guys should even be thinking of how Buhari will not lead in South West.

I can assure whoever cares to listen, Buhari will likely lead in all Northern states - 19 states and he will win in some South Western states. Nothing can change that except rigging. I am from the South West and I can tell whoever cares to listen that Buhari is the candidate to beat here - Ribadu is only popular in Lagos because of ACN.

As for Ogun state, most of the votes going to Buhari in 2007 came on the bandwagon effect of the gubernational candidate, who was very popular then "Amosun". Amosun was then an ANPP candidate, and he gave daniel a run for his money then, and was arguably believed to have been rigged out. The same Amosun is now an ACN gubernatorial candidate. The same bandwagon effect will still work in so many states in Nigeria, though the effect might be less in some highly developed states like lagos, kano e.t.c

The undoing of Buhari in the south west will be on the heels that he is more popular with the enlightened ones like you and i, who will vote for him, many bricklayers, plumber , village farmers and rural dwellers will not vote him. the CPC political structure is virtually non existent in the south west. If you doubt me, lets compare notes after April 9. This issue of political structure is what PDP will use to get average of 30% of the votes in the south west, notwithstanding the "rascal" saga. Many enlightened ones are swithching camp from Ribadu to Buhari, But how many are they ? Expect so many "passive" voters most expecially women, who can vote for Jonathan just because his parents named him goodluck. The value of there vote is the same as yours.

@eku bear

As regards popularity across the regions


i am sending a voting pattern projection  across the 6 regions  for the presidential candidates.


                                                  GEJ                                      BUHARI                                    RIBADU


NW                                  5.94 Million  (30%)                          11.28Million    (57%)                     2.57Million  (13%)



NE                                   3.33 Million   (31%)                           5.48 Million  (51%)                       1.94 Million (18%)


NC                                4.27 Million    (40%)                         3.97 Million   (37%)                        2.45 Million (23%) (                           
                                           

S.W                                  4.43 Million   (31%)                          4.14 Million  (29%)                        5.71 Million (40%)


S.S                                   7.56 Million    (80%)                         0.87 Million    (9%)                      1.04 Million (11%)


S.E                                    5.22 Million  (69%)                          0.91 Million    (12%)                         1.44 Million  (19%)


TOTAL VOTES                        30.76 Million ( 42%)            26.65 Million ( 36.2%)        15.15 Million ( 21%)

eku_bear:
Plurality might be the word you are looking for, not majority

I mean majority, the simple majority indicates no need to have up to 51% of the votes, since the race is among over two candidates, i.e highest number of votes cast.

eku_bear:
Regarding your analysis. . .

1) Edo I don't think will behave as the rest of the SS does. So he has 26 states to hunt for this 25% in. Can he get at least 25% in 24 of the remaining 26 states? Imo, shouldn't be impossible.
2) More importantly, there is the strong chance that Buhari will pull more votes than GEJ will. Buhari's home base (NW+NE) has 25.69 million votes, GEJ's (SS+SE) has 16.274 million votes. Assuming similar voting margin in the two regions, this is on the order of 9.42 million extra votes Buhari will have. If Buhari can battle GEJ to a standstill in the SW and NC, then he'll get FAR more total votes. . . simple as that. Only way for him not to exceed GEJs vote total is if he gets slapped silly in the NC and SW. This seems unlikely.

Edo state votes will be sharply divided between the ACN presidential candidate and Jonathan due to the factthat it is an ACN state, although Buhari's best performance in the south south will come from the state, he will not get up to 25 % of the total votes cast.

Buhari will also fail to get the minimum 25% in one other south west state, most likely Ogun state and even in plateau state.

Buhari / Bakare ticket can only win in a run off election

For us to have a presidential election winner in Nigeria, two basic conditions are to be met:


Condition 1 : A simple majority in the total votes cast i.e not necessarily up to 50 % of the total votes cast


Condition 2: Must have at least 25% of the total votes cast in 24 of the 36 states and FCT.


Can Buhari get up to 25% of the total votes cast in any of the South south Or South East states with the current political arrangement ? NO !!!!!!!

If your answer to the above question was yes, you are either an incurable optimist not in touch with the realities on ground OR your analtical mind has been beclouded with emotions of your hatred for PDP.

The south south and the south east states comprises of 11 states.(Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta, Edo, Cross river, Akwa ibom, Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo)

Buhari is left with just 25 states, i am also certain , he will also not get 25 % of the total votes cast in at least 1 south west state and in at least 1 North central state).

Leaving him with just 23 states at most.

The only option is for him to meet condition 1 as stated above , and then force a run off election. A run off election will involve only the top 2 performers in the first election

In the event of a run off election, he will be needing an alliance with ACN more importantly and may be ANPP.

IF this should happen, then, Jonathan had better start packing his belongings in ASO rock, as only massive rigging will do the magic for the PDP machinery. then we can sing PDP haram.

overhyped:
@ 9ijaman, must a candidate score at least 51% of the total votes cast to be decleared winner?

The nigerian constitution stipulates a simple majority i.e it could be 30% or 40 % , but with a condition that the candidate must win at least 25% of the total votes in at least 24 states and F.C.T.

What this means is that, if a candidate wins 60 % of the total votes cast, but does not meet the second condition, a run off election will be declared with the second best candidate

Jbenue:
Nice post little skewed i totally expect ACN to dominate the SW, having said that i think ribadu missed a trick in not choosing an igbo or SS VP. He did not need a yoruba to sure up the SW he has Tinubu and Fashola for that. If he had chosen a SS VP that would have incresed his stock in both the SS and SE. AS for GEJ I see him cleaning up in the SS & SE but thats about it. Buhari will take the NW and conservative muslims will vote foe him.
There are two things i wish for, 1 that there be no rigging and 2 that pdp lose no matter what!!!!!!!!!1
UP RIBADU

U have pointed out a major weakness in the Ribadu ticket , others are :

Muslim  / muslim ticket (

ACN  does not have the  needed political clout in the North West and North east.


A chunk of  buhari's projected voters  in the south west used to be  Pro Ribadu, they had switch camp due to the  doubts in its readiness  for the 2011 election.  . i foresee more Pro Ribadu moving to the Buhari's camp in the south west.  I also foresee a run off in the presidential election

@9ijaman,

Well, April 9 will tell!

@9ijaman,
Am really disapointed in you, in the way you have jumped to conclusion ,

God willing, i should be voting on the election day for one of the top 3, pres. candidates, but my votes will be niether for GEJ nor Ribadu, u get my drift.\

I think what you should realise in making objective projections is that you have to detached any iota of sentiments with your political affiliations.

In any election worldwide the strength of a party structure gives his/her candidate a head start, no matter how unpopular the candidate might be.

These are the posers i will raise:

How many states do we have in the NW? 6

How many are currently governed by PDP ? 5 (Kaduna, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina)

Given Jonathan a less than 10 % in the NW is at best extreme and not objective

Does the other parties have the kind of money PDP can spend in political maneouvering / door 2 door campaign ? No


Let your analysis be objective and trully face the realities on ground

Crux of the matter

No matter how weak / "clueless" a candidate might be, with a strong political structure, he will still spring a fairly ok result. The 30% is way objective and in touch with the reality on ground.

I have not denied the strength of Buhari in the NW, and the 57% projection is also clearly objective

@TNUBU4LIFE,

Ur analysis seems ok, but i think fails to take cognisance of the fact that GEJ is a southerner, and the "charisma" in his name "goodluck" and his mode of ascension to the throne will bring about voting sentiments most especially from the ageing population (50's and above) and some women electorates in the south west, Unfortunately Buhari does not have a very formidable political platform needed in grassroot politics, he is relying more on his good will and political antecedents, which works well for the enlightened electorates. Ribadu will probably have had more than the 51 % of the votes you anticipated, but if you observe clearly a trend, many supposedly voters for Ribadu are switching to the Buhari's camp. It could get worse as the day goes by.

@TNUBU4LIFE.

The total registered voters in the south west is 14.3 million.  And the projection for the PDP's candidates stands at 4.43 million ( 31%) votes, which is less than a 5.7 million (40%) votes for the ACN candidate,   this percentage does not indicate a total victory for the PDP's candidate across the south west states. at the moment PDP still controls 2 of the 6 southwest states.

RELEASED INEC VOTERS REGISTER BY REGIONS

NW        19,803,689

SW        14,296,163

NE         10,749,059

NC         10,684,037

SS           9,474,427

SE           7,577, 214

Total      73,528,040
                                                    These projections have taken in to account the following:

(a)The popularity of the candidates in each of the 6 regions and the voters strength in each state  from the INEC released voters register.

(b)  The candidates party structure across the regions

(c) ethnic / religious sentiments of the electorates in voting pattern 

(d) Incumbency factor.
                             




                                                  GEJ                                      BUHARI                                    RIBADU


NW                                  5.94 Million  (30%)                          11.28Million    (57%)                2.57Million  (13%)



NE                                   3.33 Million   (31%)                           5.48 Million  (51%)                 1.94 Million (18%)


NC                                  4.27 Million    (40%)                         3.97 Million   (37%)                  2.45 Million (23%) .                                   
                                           

S.W                                  4.43 Million   (31%)                          4.14 Million  (29%)                  5.71 Million (40%)


S.S                                   7.56 Million    (80%)                         0.87 Million    (9%)                 1.04 Million (11%)


S.E                                    5.22 Million  (69%)                          0.91 Million    (12%)             1.44 Million  (19%)


TOTAL VOTES                    30.76 Million ( 42%)                  26.65 Million ( 36.2%)             15.15 Million ( 21%)




The limitations of the projections which could cause appreciable changes  are:

(a) Massive rigging

(b) Voter Apathy in some regions

(c) Performances of Presidential / vice presidential candidates in the expected  televised debates

(d)  Geometric Increase in the campaign / evangelism of the candidates as we count down to the d day.

(e) The other presidential candidates votes apart from the top three , which is projected to be at most 5% of the total votes, but will not be considered.



VARYING OPINIONS ARE WELCOMED .



ABIA                1,524,484

ADAMAWA       1,816,094

A/ IBOM           1,616,873

ANAMBRA        2,011,746

BAUCHI            2,523,614

BAYELSA            591,870

BENUE             2,390,884

BORNO            2,380,957

C/RIVER          1,148,486

DELTA             2,032,191

EBONYI           1,050,534

EDO                1,655,776

EKITI                764,726

ENUGU           1,303,155

FCT                 943,473

GOMBE           1,318,377

IMO                1,687,293

JIGAWA           2,013,974

KADUNA        3,905,387

KANO               5,027,297

KATSINA          3,126,898

KEBBI              1,638,308

KOGI                 1,316,849

KWARA               1,152,361

LAGOS               6,108,069

NASSARAWA        1,389,308

NIGER                   2,175,421

OGUN                   1,941,170

ONDO                   1,616,091

OSUN                    1,293,967

OYO                     2,572,140

PLATEAU              2,259,194

RIVERS                 2,429,231

SOKOTO                2,267,509

TARABA                 1,336,221

YOBE                    1,373,796

ZAMFARA              1,824,316

TOTAL                  73,528,040[b][/b]

Dear Dr. G.E. Jonathan

Sir,

It is with a heavy heart and deep sorrow I write this. The events of the last weekend left me in a state of disbelief and surprise. It left me feeling really stupid, illogical, irrational, and worst of all naive.

I was up until the events of this last weekend a staunch believer in your rights to run for the Presidency of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, I was a dogged advocate of justice and equity being served by allowing the Niger Delta produce the next President with a real mandate. I am disappointed in the line you chose to tow. Who does the kind of thing you did at this time in a Presidential election year?

In my books, you were the best ever chance the South-south had to get some form of real development to come to the region, to the creeks, to Oloibiri and to Opuekeba. You were the best opportunity to make Shell, Chevron, and all the big oil players to show some respect to the soil of where you were born, the desecrated, scorched and scorned land of your fathers and forefathers. I carried a banner and joined other youths from Eagle Square to the hallowed gates of the National Assembly in Abuja, under the constant danger of the Police suddenly turning maniac and cutting me short in my prime, We all were chanting “Enough is Enough”. Before then, I joined a multitude to scream and rant and vent at the Fountain of Unity in Abuja…all of these asking that the “cabal” release their grasp on power and allow you, sir, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, become President. This was because I thought you were a man of integrity, a simple man with a simple plan – a plan to jettison the still – birthed 7-point agenda and set in motion a real plan to getting electricity stable, get universities properly funded, and deal decisively with the abysmal security in the country. I debated, I argued, I talked everywhere I could about your innocence, about your capability, and about your integrity. Even when last year, terrorists struck severally, killing, maiming, and taking away the virginity of our psyche to such level and sophistication of horror, I still argued your trustworthiness. I didnt allow fear becloud my convictions, I didnt waver in my opinions, I stood resolutely behind you.

Then you struck!

I can remember vividly, in the early days of your campaign, you used a footage of CThief Bode George, you cited him as one of the examples of what your government will do to corrupt public officers, no matter how high they are in society, no matter their estate in life. I hailed the fact that, even though it was seen as a slap on the wrist, the government you were part of sent the aging criminal to jail, effectively turning him into an ex-convict and by virtue of that making him unfit to ever hold public office again and saving us from his hunger for loot. I am sure he tried everything in his power to wriggle free, but still you made sure he completed his term.

So what went wrong? why the sudden volte-face? Why did the whole of the Peoples Democratic Party throng Kirikiri Prisons to go welcome him? A welcome that was befitting enough for a conquering General, a welcome befitting a King, royalty, a welcome even OBJ didnt get when he had his go at gulag time. What is that hidden magic you all realized the criminal had? Did a voice from within the prison walls speak to you sir, that Bode George was your talisman to winning the April elections? Why did you have to do something so preposterous? Something so abominable. With a Phd, I would have expected you to know that Bode George shouldn’t have been touched even via bluetooth!!! but Alas you sent a representative, a senior member of your cabinet. Oh, you probably didnt know what Bode George did? Is that your story Sir? Ok, let me act the fool which you obviously think I am and assume you don’t know, I will hold your hands and tell you what the former Chairman of the NPA did – He stole our money, my money, taxpayers money! He was at the head of a gang of contract inflaters. That was why the honourable court sent him to jail. We all applauded the bravery of the court and the sincerity of the government. So Sir, please tell us, does it mean you condone corruption, or probably even corrupt yourself, or what other thing influenced this very uneducated “mistake”. I have a feeling you were almost kicking yourself for not personally making the welcome party of calumny. I shed a tear inside for what is left of my country.

I see you on TV telling me, and other people who worked their nails off to afford the TV you appear on, that “I am one of you” – how? How can you be? We applauded the jailing of that ex-convict, you probably wept in your home, you wept because this might be your fate if you commit that kind of atrocity and you were caught. And when he got released, we all wanted him to go home quietly, have a shower and settle down into life as a nobody, we werent happy he got off so easily, we frowned. But I suspect you popped champagne, you jubilated because you suddenly say a ray of hope on the horizon. Sad stuff.

What does this tell us? folks like James Ibori, Lucky Igbinedion, just to mention a few are getting away with their crime, they will all comeback home from exile or jail heralded as heroes. May God punish them all!!

Mr. President, I wish I could add “outgoing” to your title, it would have given me so much joy, but I wont, but I will instead tell you one thing – either the elections are free or not, you have lost my vote, and that of many Nigerian youths who make up about 70% of our dear country, and mark my words sir, we shall come out en-masse on April 9th, and vote and vote till we run out of time and eligible voters. I hope you are taking particular note of happenings around the world, and I hope that will give you pause. Since you have chosen to side with the devil…, we have chosen to side with the power of our votes and our resolve to make Nigeria great again. You wont be left with any other option than to attempt to rig this election. I assure you, God is on our side.

So long Dr. GEJ, see you at the polling booths, and give my regards to your pal, Bode George, tell him that God is merciful, but also a God of wrath and anger. I shall type no more.

God bless our motherland.

Yours Sincerely,

The Monk.

I am disappoined in Pastor Tunde Bakare.

Does the bible not say we should not be unequally yoked with unbelievers?, especially a confirmed tribalist like Buhari.


@ Just good

Are you for real ?. you sound just cheeky, though intelligent.


Are you telling me if you had risen to the post of deputy CBN governor , you would have resigned because,
the CBN governor is a muslim and you won.t want to be equally yoked with an unbeliever.

We cant as christains continue to act as hyprocrites or pharisees, if not Jesus wont have dined with Zacceus

Ask for holy spirits help to give you insight to scriptures.

As it stands on reality , GEJ is the presidential canditate to beat, forget whatever some polls might seem to suggest.

I am also impressed with all those who have resolved to cast there votes for the BB team irrespective of the situation on ground.

What all BB supporters should be more interested are what i call "decampees" from the GEJ haven to the BB camp.


My hypothetical analysis goes thus:

If GEJ has 40 million supporters at the moment , and BB has 20 million supporters at the moment.

A slighty over 10 million supporters of GEJ moving to BB camps changes the story.


Welcome me as i decamp from the GEJ camp .

BB 2011.

"I can assure you that we will take back Lagos, Ekiti and Osun; "

wHY NOT "I can assure you that we will GENERATE 10,000 MEGA WATTS OF ELECTRICITY by 2012"


Me thinks =Nigeria is too important, to be in the hands of a drunk fisherman,”

Looking at the trend of the political events before the presidential polls in April 2011, will an alliance of the 3 viable opposition parties (ACN + CPC + ANPP) wrestle power from a seemingly weakest PDP Presidential candidate (Jonathan/sambo ticket) to be presented in the last 12 years?

For all lovers of political change , make your views known.