₦airaland Forum

It seems this Prof is senile already.

onatisi:
bros forget the issue of 25% or not. Both candidates will get that ,it is the total number of votes that will determine the winner in this election, the south west apc have failed to deliver their region convincingly and infact lost a state to pdp. huge numbers from the south west apc states would have sealed the game for buhari but right now the game is open and it is anybody game. Buhari now has to work extra hard in the north to make up for the votes dropped by south west apc.

I dey laugh

clevvermind:
some apc supporters here are kids. they don't know what is going to happen.

GEJ 2091

Buhari has won ,Nigerians !, what we are waiting for is by what Margin .

If PDP likes. they should declare 2,000,000 votes for GEJ in delta.


GMB will be declared president elect tomorrow by 5:36 pm.


Wild Celebration will ensue afterwards.....................

delta state is where PDP Is planning to trow the fraudulent dice. REC under severe pressure as at now .

shizzleStar:
you FOOL again? but they didnt hide in one corner to write figures for the kano result abi? ediott

we saw the magomago dey do jor, ballot papers of APC was also dumped, and somehow retrieved luckily by APC
Akwa ibom was fraud, accept it.

GEJ underestimated the statement " I voted for GEJ not PDP " in 2011.

I dey come, One TANOID girl just collapsed beside me. #kiss of life #

BlackGirlsCode:
LOL I just pity some the fool.

He has serious self esteem issues, let him be, he deserves all the pity he can get

BlackGirlsCode:
Are you done?

Or you want to yarn more rubbish, Mr. Rich guy.

Ode. If I talk my own now, next month your villagers will come and beg me to forgive your destiny.

free the dundee joor

raumdeuter:
Turnout in Kano was very High and I see Buhari getting 80% of votes of the turnout

SouthEast plus SouthSouth total 15million

Northeast plus Northwest total 29million


Thats almost double

Assuming PDP wins 90% of SS + SE and 25% of NE + NW = 13.5m + 7.25m = 20.75m

Assuming APC wins 10% of SS + SE and 75% of NE + NW = 1.5m + 21.75 = 23.25m


These assumptions favour the PDP a lot and still ends up with an APC win

Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Ogun soon Lagos would be in the bag for APC

Naturally, i try to stay pessimistic in a projection i have a bias for to keep things in balance. if you observe so far, upon sw poor pvc collection , voters turnout is on the avg. less than 50% in the SW.

And a reasonable turnout should be 60% anywhere, take note NW + NE actually has 24 million PVCs collected.

Maple:
Point of correction: Kano alone neutralises, AkwaIbom, Bayelsa, and Cross rivers put together.

Hence your estimated minimum should be even more.

it might not come as straightforward as that.

Kano has 4 million PVCs collected, if we assume 2.4 million voters came out to vote, PDP has the strength to pick 500,000 APC 1,900,000


Margin is only 1.4 million voters. (1.9 -0.5). Akwaibom might try to claim 95% turnout and 99 % for GEJ, that is like the same 1.4 million.

There wont be any run off, runoff is not declared because of failure to achieve 50% o, since there are more than 2 candidates, it is a simple majority.that matters, even if it is 45% of votes

My projection tells me all the Magic numbers from the SS / SE states will most likely be neutralised with the margin votes of NW , and Bauchi state.

Akwa Ibom ---- Kano will deal

Delta ------- Bauchi

Crossriver ------Sokoto

Rivers ----- Jigawa

imo / Edo - Katsina

Ebonyi --- Kebbi

Enugu/Bayelsa - Kaduna

Anambra/ Abia - Zamfara.

That is where the story ends for PDP,

APC will have like 500,000- 700.000 margin in sw, and will also have close to 1 million margins in NC.

Of the 6 North east states, excluding bauchi, APC will garner close to another 1 million margins from the NE.

I expect a minimum of 3 million votes difference

bbdd:
You were actually making sense until you said finger print authentication.
Hahhahaha. Thus is naija. Forget.
Akpabio is sipping wine in his house.
He's a senator. Forget it.
Authentication. Loool

It has been done before, a request that the ballot papers will go through forensic analysis, it was used in ondo and osun states for the current governors to recover their stolen mandate.

most likely one dundee just sat down comfortably in one corner with ink pad and ballot paper and kept on thumbprinting for "umblerra"

What will most likely be detected is a particular finger print pattern on over 100 ballot papers in a polling unit

raumdeuter:
SouthEast plus SouthSouth total 15million

Northeast plus Northwest total 29million


Thats almost double

Assuming PDP wins 90% of SS + SE and 25% of NE + NW = 13.5m + 7.25m = 20.75m

Assuming APC wins 10% of SS + SE and 75% of NE + NW = 1.5m + 21.75 = 23.25m


These assumptions favour the PDP a lot and still ends up with an APC win

Oyo, Osun, Kwara, Ogun soon Lagos would be in the bag for APC

There is a dangerous dimension to this election that can not wished away. MASSIVE RIGGING /INfLATION OF VOTES IN SS/SE.
Akpabio just declared over 400,000 for himself in a single senatorial districts, meaning he won with over 95%, and voter turnout of like 99 %

OREMUSSANCTUS:
Waiting for inec to give us d real results
Dis fake
Inec should pls release chatham house ward result now, pls no delay
While pdp swears in jonathan at d eagle square on may 29, apc will swear in buhari on google square

Eyah, this guy is confused.

yeh, over 400,000 votes in one senatorial districts. ....., brace up APC, the PDP is now dropping the magic numbers i anticipated,


Presidential will be well over a million votes for GEJ, it is a shame actually. .


I knew the make or break of APC is in the SS/ SE, it is not about chasing 25% for APC, it was about preventing inflation of votes, APC ought to ave directed lots of resources to prevent the occurence, and raised lot of alarms whether false or real a long time ago.

TANOIDS will not sleep tonight , if they mistakenly doze off and sleep, it will be nightmare of masquerades adorned in TAN tshirts with horse whips that will be on their chase

babytoun:
PDP will use just imo state to offset the loss in the entire SW.

No dispute, the total Positive Margins for APC might not be more than 500,000 sef

Jarus:
APC won by 100k+ and 70k+ gap in Ogun and Osun respectively. PDP won by 56k in Fayose's Ekiti state.

Osun is not 70k o, the complete results have roughly 140k margin for Osun

smurfy:
He must have bribed them to have got such a result there.

One ward was cancelled in the state for overvoting , the mugu awarded more votes than accredited.

His real punishment will come in the house of assembly elections in 2 weeks time, his fate will be surprisingly sealed on that day.

Victory is looking real, APC has now won in least expected places like Kogi, benue, taraba, fct .

The only region, PDP is hanging on is SS / SE.

That mugun called fayoshe can now see his state barely matters in sw.

linusbnn:
To me,not bad for pdp

ofcourse, it cant be bad for the party that won, but i think i like the samson guy speaks, he is articulate and sagaciuos, who knows if it is one sleep loving, taciturn, goro eating man that has replaced him.

TANOIDS in confusion mode

linusbnn:
So far,he has lost to Pharmacist Iroghide,wit one LGA still remaining

Oh my ! What a pity, a loss of smart representation

I hope samson Osagie wins ooooo.

Brilliant Man he is

magic numbers released gradually !, lets see how far it turns the tides.

Tolexander:
you just have to understand the nigerian politics. If PDP crashes at the center, definitely it will lose many of it's members to APC to enjoy the national cake. The crevices of the party won't be strong enough to withstand the ruling party.

Well, i think there is a court case as to if members of National assembly moving to another party different to the one that conveyed them to their seats ought to lose their position, i expect the court case is thrashed out in the next republic. a succesful outcome solves that problem at the legislative level.