₦airaland Forum

senatordave1:
Rubbish,supreme court will still sack him....atiku won't see 25% in zamfara

LegalWolf:
I have previously asked this question before and I think the G5 will adversely affect PDP chances a lot. Let us break it down in a state-by-state analysis.

Rivers

This is one of the most powerful strongholds of PDP. Given what we see on ground, Wike commands a large followership because it appears he has done well. Now add the fact that he has access to resources (13% derivative + normal revenue - IGR + repaid moneys owed by FG = massive war chest). There is NO WAY on earth any of the people working for Atiku in Rivers State can match that.

Verdict: Atiku chances are gone in Rivers

Oyo

Oyo story is similar to Rivers but slightly different. Makinde has done well and also commands large followership. However, he does not have the war chest of a Wike and there are still gladiators in Oyo politics that can pull funds together to salvage Atiku.

Verdict: Atiku votes will be slightly affected (Not that he can win Oyo state on a norms. To my knowledge, he has never won the state)

Benue

This is where it gets interesting. Unlike the previous two, Ortom is a disaster. Coupled with the fact that Benue is a BROKE state. Now add the fact that powerful men in the State are in support of Atiku. I would not be surprise if Atiku wins the state.

However, I am not unaware of the sentiments on ground. The media has so much tarnished the Fulani image and it is possible sentiments are whipped to campaign against Atiku. Benue promises to be interesting to watch.

Verdict: Indifferent

Abia and Enugu

I will do a joint analysis due to the similarities of both States. The chances of Atiku in these states are slim not necessarily because of G5, but Peter Obi. However, as the question relates to G5, I think the governors not working for Atiku will dim the very slight chances he has in those states. He cannot and would not win those states unfortunately....

2023 will be interesting as it will demystify so many people and unravel many things. Let us see how it will go

fergie001:
Garba Shehu

fergie001:
If to say I know, I no for add your name wallahi

fergie001:
That's his business, he wouldn't control the PDP again. He over-played himself, outspent everyone, caused divisions in almost all chapters, threw away his brother as PDP National Chair and now wants to cry more than the bereaved.

I don't even want a reconciliation between them tbh. He is likely to win the battle that is Atiku losing the election but will lose the war (PDP control). I want it to go on, maybe it might even help my humble State sef.

On Bwacha: With 2 Appeal Court Divisions ruling same, the SC will need something magical to upturn it.

Johnnyessence:
my humble indefatigable politician and listening gentle man , fergie001, Merry Christmas to you dude . Happy new year in advance. Compliments of the season to you and your family over there.

fergie001:
My list plenty ooooo... Lol

Eaztzide geestunnar andrewfarms ghettokid1 angelfrost fuckingmallam45 ebukahades10 gbest90 Wordson crazygod kyase ray07 redblood01 dfrost lamasta chikason22 Oludharay rodwave Playermaker1 Sammy07 openmine numerouno94 silentgroper vickyrotex SamuelAnyawu engineerboat robosky02 oluDharay
mangekyoalt paulolee Ojeemah Playmaker1 egusishankly athemisia ojuntana yomi1504 obembet jasonscoolari freestuffsng odewaleadesoye aiel123 johnnyessence ejimatic agberagbaoye jokerman nwanyiogwashi odinga1of garfield1 saintkeppy aaa593 righteousness2 gloryhomemaker penguin2 vicdom naptu2 clockwisereport manna (Seun & his mods)


A big shoutout to You hooooooo

It was interesting engaging with like minds for the year 2022.

Hoping for more productive and constructive engagement coming 2023.

Happy New Year in advance



Some other omissions, make una no vex ooooo

fergie001:
The Supreme Court has ruled severally that Ward delegates elections, primaries and nomination of Candidates for elections are exclusive responsibilities of the NWC/NEC of the Political Party.

The State Working Committee (SWC) has absolutely no business with any.
See Supreme Court decisions in Ufomba v INEC, Emenike v PDP, APC & Or V Kabiru Gaya & 179 Ors.

Background of the Case:
1. Election was conducted into the SWC of the Party in October 2021.

2. Silas Onu contested and lost the Ebonyi State PDP Chairmanship seat against Tochukwu Okorie.

3. Onu approached the FHC that Okorie purchased his form after the closing date.

4. In April, the FHC ruled that Onu was Chairman and disqualified Okorie.

5. PDP NWC obeyed the Court order and recognised Onu whilst Okorie appealed the decision.

6. Ward delegates were concluded and they voted in the Presidential Primaries.

7. PDP set May 28 & 29 for National Assembly & Governorship Primaries.

8. On May 23, Appeal Court ruled on status quo ante bellum i.e. restating Okorie as Ebonyi PDP Chairman on the interim.

9. Okorie insisted that there will be another Ward Delegates election. Again, PDP informed INEC of the reinstatement of Okorie on May 31.

10. On the 28th, National Assembly Primaries held and a Governorship Primaries held on the 29th whilst Primary was ongoing with INEC officials and results about to be announced, PDP called INEC to stop the Primaries.

11. Results were released and PDP decided to conduct another Primary on 4th & 5th.

12. The winners approached the Court to affirm their election, without members of the other faction as Parties to the suit. When they applied for joinder, the Judge refused.

13. The new Primaries of June 4 & 5 held, those who won in May boycotted the Primaries since the case was still in Court.

14. On June 7, Court affirmed the Primaries of May.

15. Ogba and the others who held their Primaries in June approached the Appeal Court with a Notice of Appeal.

16. The Appeal Court set aside the judgement of the FHC and ordered a retrial.

17. After the retrial with Ogba & co, the FHC still insisted on its initial judgement, upholding the May primaries and nullifying that of June.

18. Ogba appeals the judgement, and the Appeal Court ruled in July that it is the Party who determines the Candidate to fly its flag.

19. PDP submits to INEC the names of those who participated in the June Primaries.

20. Those who won the May primaries approach the Supreme Court.

21. Supreme Court rules in their favour. The Supreme Court insisted that when you want to appeal a case in which you were not a Party at the lower Court, you must first obtain the leave of Court to Appeal i.e. to be joined in the suit.

Failure to obtain leave of Court before appealing as a non-party having an interest in the matter renders the appeal incompetent. That means anything that happened after 15 above was inconsequential.

22. in August, the Appeal Court restored Okorie as substantive Chairman of Ebonyi PDP.

23. This is today's ruling:
The judgment followed a suit marked FHC/ABJ/CS/1319/2021, filed by Mr. Okoroafor Tochukwu Okorie against the PDP and INEC.
Justice Nyako agreed with counsel to the plaintiff, Okoro Mkemakolam that the cancelled PDP primary in Ebonyi state was conducted in flagrant disobedience of the order of the Court of Appeal, staying the execution of the judgment of the Federal High Court sitting in Abuja, declaring Joseph Onu as the Ebonyi State Chairman of the party.

Okorie is trying to invite the Courts into the leadership contest of the Party and the Court should not have granted their wish.

-SWC do not conduct elections or Primaries.

-The suit is between Tochukwu Okorie v PDP & INEC. Okorie is not an Aspirant and hence has no locus to challenge Primaries of the Party.

- He also did not file the suit within 14 days after the cause of action.


Aiel123
Engineerboat
Kyase

oshozondii:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/dailypost.ng/2022/12/07/2023-confusion-in-ebonyi-as-court-voids-pdp-primaries-gives-14-day-for-fresh-election/%3futm_source=operamini&utm_medium=feednews&utm_campaign=operamini_feednews&amp=1

garfield1:
My brother,from the countenance and body language ofboth teams,it is obvious what inec brought indicts adeleke.dont forget inec twice came to the court and apc rejected them

garfield1:
It is just jargons except more than one device is used in which case all data will simply add up.ok why are they not synchronizing results but just accredited votes?
All apc is saying is that cancelled all units with overvoting and declare the available winner which is apc

garfield1:
Fergie,it seems adeleke has been cornered.I dont know but it seems the fake certificate he tendered in 2018 was what inec brought and apc now brought the originals.
Now the constitution clearly said a candidate will be disq if he has ever submitted a forged certificate to inec via white lion case.this is backed by extant inec regulations and affidavits.
Inec defence won't take much time.highest one week.it is now left for pdp and adeleke defence to start work.since deadline is 29 Jan,defence has till Jan 10.

fergie001:
To add, APC is premising mainly on this certificate issue.

They brought only two out of 300 witnesses for the over-voting allegations. When INEC opens their defence, we will know more.

This Certificate saga is where APC & Oyetola intends to do the maximum damage.

Always welcome.

fergie001:
BVAS report is a secondary evidence and subject to human and network challenges like the Card Reader reports. It is of no fruition when faced with the primary evidence. What is this Primary evidence? (Will be explained later)..

These reports are been inputted by humans and the Supreme Court analysed wrt Card Reader Reports in Shinkafi V Yari, Otti V Ikpeazu & Okereke V Umahi that it is the maker of that document that will give probative value to same otherwise it is .of no moment.

The SC insisted that Card Reader is expected to aid the Voter's Register (in accreditation) and not to supplant Register... Section 49(2) of the EA 2010.

Back to BVAS and Osun
Now, the expert witness for the Petitioner (Oyetola & APC), Isiaka Olanrewaju admitted he analysed the BVAS report of 749 PUs and allegedly found over-voting took place. He also told the tribunal that he is aware that the BVAS reports is subject to network and human challenges.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/11/22/election-results-bvas-report-established-over-voting-for-adeleke-witness-tells-tribunal/amp/

Like INEC argued, the Commission said it didn't finish updating when Oyetola requested for the CTC, a day after the election and it was handed over to him 2 weeks after the election. In 2015 in Akwa Ibom State, it took over 7 weeks for this to be updated. Now, INEC said it has fully updated and the BVAS machine will be tendered in evidence as well.

EA 2022. S62
(2)The Commission shall compile, maintain and update, on a continuous basis, a register of election results......

Don't also forget BVAS report is a post-election procedure. It is a process that takes place after elections has been completely concluded not during. (EA 2022. S62(1-3))

---

For Osun and 2023: The legal framework is based on three pillars: The Constitution, Electoral Act 2022 and INEC Regulations & Guidelines 2022.

1. You have a smart card reader or BVAS machine which authenticates your PVC. S47 EA 2022

2. After that your details must be checked, confirmed and ticked on the Voter's Register. (19e of INEC Regulations)

3. After the results are collated and announced at PU stage, results are entered into forms EC8A (signed, dated and stamped by PO).

4. No of persons accredited, failed ballots, results, etc are electronically transmitted to the collation centre and the IREV portal using the BVAS machine (they are stored therein as well

##. After which the BVAS machine and the original copy of Form EC8A are placed in tamperevident envelopes, and in company of the Security agents submitted to the RA and upwards it goes. (Section 38 of INEC Regulations).

1&2 happens during accreditation
3&4 happens during collation of results

To prove over-voting and/or accreditation issues, the BVAS reports will fail when faced with 1-4 above.

aiel123 engineerboat

garfield1:
Which APC must have done to arrive at that over voting...

On another note,accredited votes are disseminated quicker than result uploads.to accredit,you dont need network and it uploads or send data to inec long before results are uploaded.before election results are announced fully,accreditation figures are ready.this jargon of synchronization or completing upload after 7 weeks is a lie except inec are colluding to falsify or match results.

garfield1:
Theres no need for any report.all the 749 bvas machines in issue will be analysed

fergie001:
BVAS report is a secondary evidence and subject to human and network challenges like the Card Reader reports. It is of no fruition when faced with the primary evidence. What is this Primary evidence? (Will be explained later)..

These reports are been inputted by humans and the Supreme Court analysed wrt Card Reader Reports in Shinkafi V Yari, Otti V Ikpeazu & Okereke V Umahi that it is the maker of that document that will give probative value to same otherwise it is .of no moment.

The SC insisted that Card Reader is expected to aid the Voter's Register (in accreditation) and not to supplant Register... Section 49(2) of the EA 2010.

Back to BVAS and Osun
Now, the expert witness for the Petitioner (Oyetola & APC), Isiaka Olanrewaju admitted he analysed the BVAS report of 749 PUs and allegedly found over-voting took place. He also told the tribunal that he is aware that the BVAS reports is subject to network and human challenges.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/11/22/election-results-bvas-report-established-over-voting-for-adeleke-witness-tells-tribunal/amp/

Like INEC argued, the Commission said it didn't finish updating when Oyetola requested for the CTC, a day after the election and it was handed over to him 2 weeks after the election. In 2015 in Akwa Ibom State, it took over 7 weeks for this to be updated. Now, INEC said it has fully updated and the BVAS machine will be tendered in evidence as well.

EA 2022. S62
(2)The Commission shall compile, maintain and update, on a continuous basis, a register of election results......

Don't also forget BVAS report is a post-election procedure. It is a process that takes place after elections has been completely concluded not during. (EA 2022. S62(1-3))

---

For Osun and 2023: The legal framework is based on three pillars: The Constitution, Electoral Act 2022 and INEC Regulations & Guidelines 2022.

1. You have a smart card reader or BVAS machine which authenticates your PVC. S47 EA 2022

2. After that your details must be checked, confirmed and ticked on the Voter's Register. (19e of INEC Regulations)

3. After the results are collated and announced at PU stage, results are entered into forms EC8A (signed, dated and stamped by PO).

4. No of persons accredited, failed ballots, results, etc are electronically transmitted to the collation centre and the IREV portal using the BVAS machine (they are stored therein as well

##. After which the BVAS machine and the original copy of Form EC8A are placed in tamperevident envelopes, and in company of the Security agents submitted to the RA and upwards it goes. (Section 38 of INEC Regulations).

1&2 happens during accreditation
3&4 happens during collation of results

To prove over-voting and/or accreditation issues, the BVAS reports will fail when faced with 1-4 above.

aiel123 engineerboat

garfield1:
Where is the complete one

garfield1:
Where is the complete one

garfield1:
Apc says bvas records shows less figures than results declalredll

fergie001:
Yes, WAEC has testified on his behalf before in 2018 and the Court of Appeal upheld it.

WAEC will simply present the original like they did and say they can't see the blurred one. Adeleke will provide his own original that tallies with WAEC's. Case dismissed.

garfield1:
Things will unfold as it goes on...
I am more interested in the over voting part

fergie001:
Case wey go end like Obaseki own.

@garfield1
@aiel123
@kyase

Court strikes out Aondoakaa's suit against Alia.

ejimatic:
. I don't understand what they want to achieve in the certificate saga. It is like they are claiming all his papers are forged.

ejimatic:
After Oyetola won in the SC in 2018 ,APC was prevailed by some people to withdraw the forgery and impersonation cases against Adeleke At that time the Principal if the where the incident took place and six others were in remand in Abuja with Adeleke as the defendant. The cases were settled out of court by the parties involved. It is the case that APC is reopening now any other related cases!

savenigeria1:
Even the unknown gunmen will vote that day. No one is stopping us from voting. We are voting massively that day. My only fear is. We a day be enough to vote that day. My polling unit has more than 6000 registered voters. How can we finish the voting in one day.

Bendeco02:
Oga don't give yourself mumu hope, Anambrarians will come out and vote massively for Obi.

Howmany people came out to vote in Osun last election compared to registered voters?

Am asking you this ques because probably you're tinubu supporter from S.W

Ugolistikp:
But Borno that has been ravaged by insurgency can come out and vote..

Bro u must be a comedian

post=115285535:
Borno they were making noise isn't upto 3 million registered voters, Anambra is even higher than Borno

fergie001:
It's a dead end. Even the Supreme Court will throw it away!
He has no locus to even institute the case having not participated in the Primary.

olril17, adexxi!



SOURCE

Previous Thread:
https://www.nairaland.com/7132881/osun-2022-court-rules-favour#112944587

19. OBOKUN LGA

Register voter 67651
Acredited voters 29696

APC 14527
PDP 13380

Valid vote 28988
Rejected vote 692
Total vote cast 29680

APC WIN