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Investment › Re: Crypto Currency Investors Thread by erwinschro: 6:49am On May 16, 2022

ThisisIkemefuna:
Well you're wrong, USDC is also not audited so there's no way to verify the 1:1 claim.

It is only ATTESTED not audited. It is even stated in their site. Usdt on the other side has been tested for several years and withstood several heavy fud. How many years has usdc withstood? Currently people can simply claim usdt on tether website on a 1:1 ratio to a dollar.

Ok this is semantics. It is a fair attestion of value by a top international accounting firm. It is not just cash, but the firm does not think that they have misrepresented the value of their assets. Look, I have nothing to gain here and I am not trying to present myself as an expert on crypto - in fact I have never invested in cryptocurrency. What I do not like is securities fraud, and my countrymen losing their life savings to foreign ponzi schemers. Everything I have said anyone can look up for themselves, infact I ENCOURAGE you to.

7 Likes

Investment › Re: Crypto Currency Investors Thread by erwinschro: 5:55am On May 16, 2022

seanwilliam:
Hmmm… thanks for this .

Pls can you analyze busd and usdc too?

I don't know about BUSD but USDC is actually backed by real money 1:1. They have been audited multiple times and are very open and transparent about it. But if your USDC is in a crypto exchange you are still not safe. Don't forget what you have with the exchanges is not actually the coins, but the promise to be paid the coin by the exchange. If the exchange goes broke you still don't own shit so offline in your own wallet is still the best way to store tokens imo

8 Likes

Investment › Re: Crypto Currency Investors Thread by erwinschro: 5:38am On May 16, 2022

DenreleDave:
USDT itself is also backed by Luna.... He's right

No he is not right. That is UST which is Terra. USDT is TETHER and it is not backed by Luna. USDT is run by a company called Bitfinex and they are supposed to back every USDT coin with US dollars. These dollars are supposed to stay in a bank account and must equal the number of USDT coins in existence to maintain the 1:1 exchange rate peg.

Bitfinex, however, has refused to audit their accounts and prove that they actually have the money in the account. Spoiler alert: they do not. If we are very lucky, USDT is backed by maybe 10% cash and God knows what kind of shitty bonds (probably chinese commercial papers). So what does this mean? Well, If too many people try to get their money out of USDT at once, this company will not have enough money to pay everyone back because they won't be able to sell those shitty bonds for face value, especially when interest rates go up.

They have been banned from doing business in the state of new york because they did an investigation and uncovered all of these things I was talking about:
https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2021/attorney-general-james-ends-virtual-currency-trading-platform-bitfinexs-illegal

They were too scared to release some of their findings because it would have caused a bank run on USDT and that would collapse the entire market and all crypto exchanges would probably go out of business. Good luck cashing anything out in that case. You can see that coinbase said if they go bankrupt for whatever reason that you have no right to your money.

Just 2 days ago, Tether had a net outflow of $8 billion to other currencies. The total inflow of actual currency, across ALL currencies, combined, that day was $700 million and it's likely that at least a third of that was wash sales to make it seem like there was actual money going into the market. So what happens is the market "went up" $100 billion on a $700 million input (and possibly more like $400 million).
That suggests that less than 1% of the market's value is real money!

Everyone knows how important USDT is to every crypto. It is literally an inevitability that it will crash. Just google what I am talking about. Many people put their life savings there to save against Naira devaluation thinking it is cash and not risky bonds. If I can save just one Nigerian from losing all their money in an american ponzi scheme I will be very happy.

30 Likes 5 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 8:05pm On May 15, 2022

sonofElElyon:
You and ogg should have a healthy debate on gsk he believes it's grossly undervalued while you disagree.. should be an interesting debate !

I can't say how GSK will perform in the future, but I can say that in the present it is unbelievably cheap. First, the companies liquidation value is at minimum N6.80/share and that is a very conservative estimate. Even if you forecast the company to have almost no revenue growth you will calculate a fair value of at least N11-N12 naira

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 11:50am On May 13, 2022

Slimdove:
FMN heading to 40+ nice one.those who listen to Oracle on food scarcity must be happy now.

Now that they control 40% or so of the market post-merger, I am expecting them to have improved pricing power going forward

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 9:19am On May 13, 2022

Hope you people will release some GSK and Wapco for me today

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 5:56am On May 13, 2022

emmanuelewumi:
Those who bought Lafarge on 20th April 2022 at about N25 would have made a profit of about 24% in less than 3 weeks. Very possible for a pull back by next week.

One can only dream grin

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 9:30pm On May 11, 2022

Mpeace:
BUA foods is worse, the other shares up to over 99.9% are owned by bua limited, bua industries, Rabui jr and some other persons with Rabui in their name. My question is why do they come to the stock exchange if almost the entire shares are owned by the samr family.

Seems crazy to me that someone has all the money in the world to do whatever they want whenever they want and all they care about is inflating their net worth on a magazine! Imagine all the trouble of listing a company, then the added wahala of not conforming to SEC/NGX rules. Surely there must be another reason but I can't see one huh

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 9:24pm On May 11, 2022

RabbiDoracle:
(Do your due diligence as this is my opinion)

Near term (to Long term) prices if there is a parabolic move on NSE index and stocks.

JB 100 to 120
WAPCO 150+ if not more.
Dangote cement 450 to 500
Seplat 2k5+
Nestle 3K+

Flourmill needs to spike out of control towards 200 to 300. Food crisis will get severe and man must chop

Conoil 300+
Total 600+
FO 450+
Transcorp 15+

Bua cement is about to breakout. It will be rapid. Soon people go begin drink cement.

For the Brewers, I gave possible price targets earlier. Because when economy/globe good, you drink to celebrate. But when economy/globe bad, you drink to cure stress and depression.

For Banks, I gave possible price targets as well.

With these, NSE ASI will easily do 100K and above.

(Based on TA only. Fundamentals lag Technicals)

I am bullish on flour mills but what is the rationale here? How would they make money from food crisis? Where do they source their wheat? Everyone is expecting the shortages to be bad once summer arrives

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 5:55pm On May 10, 2022

pluto09:
Sentiments apart, I think we should all be worried by some of the issues raised by JP Morgan.
How could oil price be going up and is not having a positive effect on our reserve?
Periods of high oil price had always been a good one for the country reserve and balance of trade. Something is definitely not right.

Its quite simple actually, we are spending all the money on subsidy.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 12:23pm On May 10, 2022

Seunn11:
For debtors countries (in dollars), there case will likely be worse.

Again, One man's debts are another man's financial assets. It is the holders of the debt that suffer more than the debtors. When the US government inflates away its debt, it inflates away ALL dollar denominated debts. Think about it, if the dollar is devalued then this is fantastic news if you are owing dollars because it is easier to pay back your eurobond.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 8:10am On May 10, 2022

BabsO2:
But the dollar being over valued due to excessive debt no be today. It has been building up for a long time. Lot's of countries will be impacted if the dollar collapses. Difficult to imagine a massive sharp impact. There is still a lot of interest in sovereigns saving globally in $$$. The dollar still gained last week relatively to global major currencies due to demand. As there is still no other major global reserve currency like the dollar.

The ball has to drop at some point. Credit functions in cycles, even the biggest most powerful countries can't just borrow in perpetuity there will always have to be a deleveraging at least once per century and this goes back to the beginning of money and civilization. They even used to cancel debts every 50 years in biblical times.

People are running to the dollar for safety not knowing that they may actually need safety from the dollar. When the US government needs money, it just borrows it into existence (like all countries do) and promises to pay it back + interest. If you borrow the first dollar into existence and promise to pay it back + interest, where do you get the second dollar? It has to also be borrowed into existence. The whole system can only work if the debts continue rising forever. Many people will argue that this is by design and its just how economies work. In reality, economies have only worked like this since Richard Nixon got rid of the gold standard 50 years ago. There is a 100% failure rate of fiat currencies throughout history, but never has the world's reserve currency been fiat.

The real crisis is that in those same 50 years the US has been operating with a trade deficit, buying more from the rest of the world than they have been selling and paying for these goods with US dollars that they borrowed into existence. This system doesn't collapse because countries don't actually convert their dollars back to their own currencies because it would cause them to appreciate and make their exports uncompetitive. So what do they do? They loan that same money they were paid for their goods right back to the US government by buying those same bonds! This is the true luxury of being a superpower.

Now inflation is high in the US and they are facing the classic issue. The level of inflation adjusted interest rates that is low enough to save debtors from bankruptcy is below the level required for creditors to hold the debt as a viable storehold of wealth, devaluation is the only option - in fact its an inevitability. I suggest you read (or watch) Principles for dealing with the changing world order by Ray Dalio the largest hedge fund manager in the world.

As RabbiDoracle has stated, there will actually be a wealth effect in emerging markets because compared to the rest of the world we hold comparatively fewer US government bonds

5 Likes 3 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 9:12pm On May 09, 2022

BabsO2:
The dollar being over valued has been on for many years now. The cloud is getting thicker and thicker. Despite the cloud the dollar gained last week on most international currencies if i quote the news correctly. Even if the dollar is devalued with respect to international currencies, the naira is still under pressure to be devalued relatively to the dollar mainly due to insecurity. Insecurity is currently holding back $'s looking for Naira. Ideally many Nigerians earning dollars would not mind visiting home more and perhaps retire to Nigeria with a lower cost of living and to enjoy good quality fresh food. If this issue of insecurity clears NSE has an upward path from it's current lows.

The dollar devaluation is going to be very extreme IMO. One man's debts (US Government) is another man's financial assets (Holders of US T-Bills AKA everyone in the world). The US obviously cannot afford to pay their debts so the only choice is to inflate it away which they have already done massively with "quantitative easing". Once everybody wakes up and realizes their assets are being inflated away then the jig is up. They start selling their bonds when they realize they will be paid back in worthless dollars - and this is what causes these devaluations/currency crises to be swift.

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 2:33pm On May 06, 2022

Such a Bull Market driven by local investors is really something to behold. The many new investors through the MTN public offer will be happy with their returns so far and will be ready to invest more into the market. It's really great when things are looking up in Nigeria for once

2 Likes

Travel › Re: Securing Visa To France, Applying From Nigeria... by erwinschro: 3:29pm On Feb 01, 2022

Ashirioluwa:
SCHENGEN VISA & POINT OF FIRST ENTRY

Should my first trip be to the country that issued my Schengen visa? Can I enter a different Schengen country?

Your first port of entry does not need to be the country which issued you with a Schengen Visa - as you must apply to the country where you are planning to spend the majority of your stay in the Schengen Area. When deciding which country to apply for a visa, this is determined by which country you're planning to spend the most time, according to your filed itinerary. Once the visa is issued, it does not matter what country is your point of entry.

Actually you can apply to EITHER your first port of entry or the country where you plan on spending the most time. Yes once the visa is issues it doesn't matter but I have heard that if your actual itinerary is too different from what you applied with then you can have issues with your next visa - for example you apply through France to visit France and Spain but instead you go to germany and the Netherlands. Obviously that is a very extreme example but nobody knows where the embassies draw the line so I always prefer to tread with caution

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 2:46pm On Dec 20, 2021

OBAGADAFFI:
After Mansards reconstruction.

I will start avoiding companies doing reconstruction.

Hmm my brother. Once bitten twice shy. Mansard also taught me a serious lesson this year

Travel › Re: Securing Visa To France, Applying From Nigeria... by erwinschro: 7:30am On Oct 20, 2021

larade16:
If you don’t have at least one night payment in the account, it will keep declining, i did yesterday until i had some money in the account before my reservation was fully confirmed.

If you cancel the reservation after you’ve gotten your visa, before the said date you put your money will be refunded.

Ok, thanks, but sometimes, they keep saying, they can't verify my debit card, I used master debit card, i used it to purchase something online frequently. It surprised me when they say that, they can even cancel my reservation because of that, have experience it, what kind of card do they really need?

I assume that you are talking about reservation on booking.com? I went through something similar where all my cards kept declining even my American cards. They even cancelled my reservation after I had submitted at VFS. I'm not exactly sure what happened because I was able to book and pay other properties on the same website with no issues.

The only thing I noticed is that in the case of the hotel that canceled my reservation, they were the ones handling payment not booking.com. I think that the payment system on booking.com is usually more friendly to international cards. So my advice is if you want to make a reservation for your visa using booking.com, check and make sure that it says "payment handled by booking.com" as opposed to payment handled by the property, and it is usually listed on each hotels page how the payment is handled

Travel › Re: Securing Visa To France, Applying From Nigeria... by erwinschro: 11:17pm On Oct 14, 2021

sihamey:
I don’t know what you are trying to prove here, righteousness or what? Please spire me with the preaching. If the person is late and the name is still on the CAC document as the director the person assumes to be alive,
Visa office is not a psychic as you think they are. When I was applying for my visa my 2nd director on my CAC wasn’t around and I wrote a letter and sign on his behalf with my company letterhead since my CAC shows his name as a confirmation nothing to worry and I got the visa,
Is a common sense because agent will use the format packet your visa application and still collect money from you,

I am not trying to prove righteousness I am trying to prevent people from taking horrible advice. Signing a letter as someone who is alive and gave you permission to sign on their behalf is very different than writing a letter pretending to be a dead person. Even if it is a small chance that they decide to verify why would you risk getting banned on such an insignificant part of your application

Travel › Re: Securing Visa To France, Applying From Nigeria... by erwinschro: 8:08am On Oct 14, 2021

sihamey:
Write it and sign on behalf of the person , Is only when you tell them the person is late they will know, meanwhile you are submitting your CAC documents which will also show the person as the director. Just use your common sense

All this isn't necessary. Getting caught in a blatant lie like this is a very easy way to get banned. Why will you pretend to be somebody that has passed away? Even if it is not visa application it is generally wrong and I would venture to say that it is probably against the law too. Just tell the truth. All these letters don't even hold so much weight with them. It is NOT common sense by any standards to lie on any part of your application

Travel › Re: Securing Visa To France, Applying From Nigeria... by erwinschro: 3:51pm On Oct 13, 2021

Leleky:
Do we need tax certificate clearance to apply for tourist visa?

I don't think it is a requirement but you may wish to include it. If you happen to have huge sums of money either in your account or passing through it, you may wish to include tax clearance as it would help to prove the legitimacy of your funds and back up your reported income. In my personal experience it becomes even more important if you are self employed or own a business

1 Like

Travel › Re: Securing Visa To France, Applying From Nigeria... by erwinschro: 1:03am On Oct 10, 2021*

I saw this on stackexchange and thought it could be useful to this discussion about justification of purpose of travelling

When you see "Justification for the purpose and conditions of the intended stay was not provided" on a Schengen refusal, it usually means that they decided that the application was either 'incoherent', or not credible, or both.

Incoherence
Coherence has a special meaning in the Schengen vocabulary; it means clear, sensible, consistent, and most importantly, understandable. An 'incoherent' application lacks these qualities. Coherent applications will generally succeed; incoherent applications will not. Some examples of incoherence are given in the handbook...

- an applicant claims to travel to an industrial area, staying in a cheap hotel, for the purpose of tourism;
- an applicant claims to visit a professional event at dates that do not correspond to the actual dates of the event;
- an applicant claims that the purpose of the trip is to visit a friend, but it turns out that the person concerned is absent during that period;
- a trader in jewellery claims to have been invited to attend a medical conference.
While these examples may not correspond to your situation, they have a common thread where the application was not consistent with the applicant's job, status, or apparent life-style.

Premise
Incoherence also includes applications that did not successfully establish a premise for the visit. Commonly, there is no apparent connection between the applicant's itinerary and his career, apparent life-style, or financial capacity. Some examples of this are...

- an applicant expresses interest in an event or geographic area for which there are no signs of previous interest;
- an applicant presents a letter of invitation from a sponsor whose relationship with the applicant is unclear or distant;
- an applicant is continually sponsored by the same person where there is no apparent justification for visiting that person;
- an applicant cannot establish why a visit is contemplated at this particular time.

Credibility
An applicant's credibility can also result in a refusal reason of "Justification for the purpose and conditions of the intended stay was not provided".

Some examples of credibility problems are...

- The applicant has an existing support network of friends or family that would easily enable them to break the rules;
- A disproportionate amount of income is being spent for the visit;
- The applicant has changed stories over the course of several interactions with Schengen officials and their credibility has been damaged;
- The decision-maker cannot determine if the funds really belong to the applicant;
- The decision-maker cannot determine if the funds were obtained legally;
- The applicant has a history of prior refusals and there is no visible change in circumstances;
- The applicant's submission contains gaps or evidential shortfalls that cannot be explained;
- The applicant is going to a location where previous visa holders have entered breach;
- The sponsor has a dubious status, or has sponsored people who have entered breach;
- The sponsor attempts to attest to things that are beyond his control (like guaranteeing that the person will not overstay).

3 Likes 1 Share

Travel › Re: Securing Visa To France, Applying From Nigeria... by erwinschro: 12:55pm On Oct 09, 2021

Please does anyone know when i can expect to receive my passport If I received a message that my processed passport has been dispatched to UPS yesterday

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 10:33am On Sep 10, 2021

Good Morning,

Please does anyone here have experience dealing with first registrars? They sent me an sms requesting for my CHN and stockbroker so that they can credit my stanbicibtc bonus shares to my cscs account. I sent them an email with the information and I have not received any response for 3 days now and they don't seem to pick any calls as I have spent over 1 hour on hold. Please what is the best course of action for me

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 1:29pm On Aug 30, 2021

Willie2015:
See Loco mail above...
Just contact your stockbroker for the transfer form

Once I get the form from my stockbroker, do I submit it back to them or to the registrar?

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 1:05pm On Aug 30, 2021

I filled the form online some weeks ago as well and they said something about purchase transfer form with my stockbroker/cscs huh

Willie2015:
We are movin forward...
Just filled my e dividend mandate online...
For MTN, Dang Cement.. etc
With Coronation Registrar....
Upload my ID, Photo & Signature....
Perfect and Seamless process
At the comfort of my home.....
Hope other registrar will adopt the practice..

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 1:03pm On Aug 30, 2021

Willie2015:
We are movin forward...
Just filled my e dividend mandate online...
For MTN, Dang Cement.. etc
With Coronation Registrar....
Upload my ID, Photo & Signature....
Perfect and Seamless process
At the comfort of my home.....
Hope other registrar will adopt the practice..

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 1:24pm On Jun 29, 2021

megawealth01:
I have sounded the ACCESS calls times without numbers... E go shock many... That bank has no business trading below km20... Not a recommendation pls

I am firmly in this bandwangon. I mean the performance of that bank in the last two decades is spectacular. When Aig Imoukhuede and Herbert Wigwe bought the bank around 2005 it was the 64th bank in the country and it is now top 5 in almost all metrics. Aig did a great job as MD and made the plans with Herbert Wigwe to continue and stay on the successful path. They are still aggressively chasing growth and buying up many many companies.

I can't say too much about their financials, but I firmly believe in the current leadership and their ability to create success and I'm happy to put my money on even just that belief alone

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 7:16am On Jun 25, 2021

DrAwo:
This entire post was exactly my point in asking the question I asked...

I know the formula and its intricacies... The challenge is that the average Nigerian company reports their numbers in a way that makes it difficult to distill such advanced metrics from them...

Like Buffett says, if a company wants to obscure their numbers, even the best accountant will struggle to unravel them...

There's a ripe market for financial services companies like Bloomberg, Morningstar etc that will focus on the Nigerian Market... I won't mind paying a subscription for such a service...

The issue isn't really with how the companies report their numbers. The one input that would be difficult to calculate is the levered beta of the stock. In the industry, you can just pull this information from bloomberg. Without access to a bloomberg terminal (or similar financial data) then you will have to calculate the company's historical beta using regression analysis. Not too difficult, but a little tedious. Another more thorough method involving bloomberg is to spread comps of similar companies unlevered beta, take the average and then re-lever beta based on the capital structure of the company you are analyzing

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 10:14am On Jun 24, 2021

DrAwo:
I saw this post on Facebook page as well... I assume its the same person placing the posts!

I totally agree with you 100%!

My question is how do you practically calculate WACC

It's a little difficult to get an exact number, but you can estimate it within a very reasonable margin of error. You look at the companies total amount of capital (debt + equity). Then you simply calculate the firms after tax cost of debt multiplied by the percentage of debt in the capital structure and add that to the cost of equity multiplied by the percentage of equity in the capital structure.

The complications come in primarily in calculating the cost of equity. Traditionally, this is done using the capital asset pricing model. The process can be quite tedious, but most financial professionals have access to software (bloomberg or otherwise) that has many of the inputs to calculate the cost of equity such that they don't need to do the calculations and estimations required by themselves.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 12:25pm On Jun 21, 2021

yMcy56:
GTB
** Currently suspended...
** Guaranty Trust Bank (GTB) will be delisted.......
** Guaranty Holding Company Plc (HOLDCo) will be listed in its place.......

**When? We don't know yet..........but due to GTB's efficiency and influence, it's not expected to be long or too long.......SEC should be on top this.

Any info on what the exchange for GTB to Holdco shares will look like?

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 10:54am On Jun 21, 2021

emmasoft:
Noted. Once the modalities are put in place you will be informed.

Thank you very much, I really appreciate it

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by erwinschro: 9:12am On Jun 21, 2021

Good morning house.

Please can the investment one professionals here get them to activate an open league in the virtual investment simulator. It was a very helpful tool to test and refine new investment strategies before deploying actual capital

@emmasoft @Dsticks47

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